Beyond Value-at-Risk : GlueVaR Distortion Risk Measures

We propose a new family of risk measures, called GlueVaR, within the class of distortion risk measures. Analytical closed-form expressions are shown for the most frequently used distribution functions in financial and insurance applications. The relationship between Glue-VaR, Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Tail Value-at-Risk (TVaR) is explained. Tail-subadditivity is investigated and it is shown that some GlueVaR risk measures satisfy this property. An interpretation in terms of risk attitudes is provided and a discussion is given on the applicability in non-financial problems such as health, safety, environmental or catastrophic risk management

What can ecosystems learn? Expanding evolutionary ecology with learning theory.

BACKGROUND: The structure and organisation of ecological interactions within an ecosystem is modified by the evolution and coevolution of the individual species it contains. Understanding how historical conditions have shaped this architecture is vital for understanding system responses to change at scales from the microbial upwards. However, in the absence of a group selection process, the collective behaviours and ecosystem functions exhibited by the whole community cannot be organised or adapted in a Darwinian sense. A long-standing open question thus persists: Are there alternative organising principles that enable us to understand and predict how the coevolution of the component species creates and maintains complex collective behaviours exhibited by the ecosystem as a whole? RESULTS: Here we answer this question by incorporating principles from connectionist learning, a previously unrelated discipline already using well-developed theories on how emergent behaviours arise in simple networks. Specifically, we show conditions where natural selection on ecological interactions is functionally equivalent to a simple type of connectionist learning, 'unsupervised learning', well-known in neural-network models of cognitive systems to produce many non-trivial collective behaviours. Accordingly, we find that a community can self-organise in a well-defined and non-trivial sense without selection at the community level; its organisation can be conditioned by past experience in the same sense as connectionist learning models habituate to stimuli. This conditioning drives the community to form a distributed ecological memory of multiple past states, causing the community to: a) converge to these states from any random initial composition; b) accurately restore historical compositions from small fragments; c) recover a state composition following disturbance; and d) to correctly classify ambiguous initial compositions according to their similarity to learned compositions. We examine how the formation of alternative stable states alters the community's response to changing environmental forcing, and we identify conditions under which the ecosystem exhibits hysteresis with potential for catastrophic regime shifts. CONCLUSIONS: This work highlights the potential of connectionist theory to expand our understanding of evo-eco dynamics and collective ecological behaviours. Within this framework we find that, despite not being a Darwinian unit, ecological communities can behave like connectionist learning systems, creating internal conditions that habituate to past environmental conditions and actively recalling those conditions. REVIEWERS: This article was reviewed by Prof. Ricard V Solé, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona and Prof. Rob Knight, University of Colorado, Boulder.

An analysis of the evolution of hydrometeorological extremes in newspapers: the case of Catalonia, 1982-2006

This contribution analyzes the evolution of perception of certain natural hazards over the past 25 years in a Mediterranean region. Articles from newspapers have been used as indicator. To this end a specific Spanish journal has been considered and an ACCESS database has been created with the summarized information from each news item. The database includes data such as the location of each specific article in the newspaper, its length, the number of pictures and figures, the headlines and a summary of the published information, including all the instrumental data. The study focused on hydrometeorological extremes, mainly floods and droughts, in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula. The number of headlines per event, trends and other data have been analyzed and compared with "measured" information, in order to identify any bias that could lead to an erroneous perception of the phenomenon. The SPI index (a drought index based on standardized accumulated precipitation) has been calculated for the entire region, and has been used for the drought analysis, while a geodatabase implemented on a GIS built for all the floods recorded in Catalonia since 1900 (INUNGAMA) has been used to analyze flood evolution. Results from a questionnaire about the impact of natural hazards in two specific places have been also used to discuss the various perceptions between rural and urban settings. Results show a better correlation between the news about drought or water scarcity and SPI than between news on floods in Catalonia and the INUNGAMA database. A positive trend has been found for non-catastrophic floods, which is explained by decrease of the perception thresholds, the increase of population density in the most flood-prone areas and changes in land use.

Flash flood evolution in North-Western Mediterranean

The present paper shows an in-depth analysis of the evolution of floods and precipitation in Catalonia for the period 1981-2010. In order to have homogeneous information, and having in mind that not gauge data was available for all the events, neither for all the rivers and stream flows, daily press from a specific newspaper has been systematically analysed for this period. Furthermore a comparison with a longer period starting in 1900 has been done. 219 flood events (mainly flash flood events) have been identified for the period of 30 years (375 starting in 1900), 79 of them were ordinary, 117 of them were extraordinary and 23 of them were catastrophic, being autumn and summer the seasons with the maxima values. 19% of the events caused a total of 110 casualties. 60% of them died when they tried to cross the street or the stream. Factors like the evolution of precipitation, population density and other socio-economical aspects have been considered. The trend analysis shows an increase of 1 flood/decade that probably has been mainly due to inter-annual and intra-annual changes in population density and in land-use and land-cover.

Hydrology, light and the use of organic and inorganic materials as structuring factors of biological communities in Mediterranean streams

Hydrological disturbances, light availability and nutrients are the most relevant factors determining the structure of the biological communities in Mediterranean rivers. While some hydrological disturbances are able to induce catastrophic effects, which may cause a complete reset in physical and biological conditions, continued enrichment or changes in light availability are factors leading to the progressive shift in the communities of autotrophs and heterotrophs in the systems. Primary production in Mediterranean streams shows relevant seasonal changes which mainly follows the variations in light availability. In most forested streams, the algal community is shade-adapted. Nutrient enrichment (especially phosphorus) leads to marked increases in primary production, but this increase is not lineal and there is a saturation of algal biomass even in the most enriched systems. The heterotrophs (bacteria, fungi) are related to the pattern of DOC availability (which most depends on the seasonal discharge and leaf fall dynamics) and to the available substrata in the stream. It has been repeatedly observed that shorttime increases of extracellular enzyme activities are related to the accumulation of autochthonous (algal) and/or allochthonous (leaves) organic matter on the streambed during spring and summer, this being more remarkable in dry than in wetter years. Flow reduction favours detritus concentration in pools, and the subsequent increase in the density and biomass of the macroinvertebrate community. In Mediterranean streams collectors are accounting for the highest density and biomass, this being more remarkable in the least permanent systems, in accordance with the effect of floods on the organic matter availability. Nutrients, through the effect on the primary producers, also affect the trophic food web in the streams by favouring the predominance of grazers

Ewing sarcoma of the rib: respiratory tract infection as initial symptoms in a 14-year-old boy. Functional medical imaging findings

Ewing sarcoma or primitive neuroectodermal tumor (PNET) of bone is the second most common pediatric malignant bone tumor. The median age at diagnosis is 15 years and there is a male predilection of 1.5/1. The authors present the case of a 14-year-old boy with Ewing sarcoma situated on the left ninth rib which was being investigated for respiratory tract infection. Pleurisy is the most common misdiagnosis. Our case illustrates the importance of recognizing exceptional features when interpreting FDG PET or scintigraphy to prevent the misinterpretation of metastases as other etiologies, such as infection.

Carcinoma renal dos ductos de Bellini

Two types primary epithelial tumours of the kidney have been distinguished, such as renal cell carcinoma (hypernephroma or Grawitz) deriving from proximal tubules and carcinoma arising in the urothelium of the kidney's collecting system. Mancilla-Jimenez e cols were the first to describe in 1976 an atypical papillary carcinoma of the kidney deriving from collecting duct system-Bellini duct carcinoma (BDC). In the World Healthy Organization classification it is listed as a rare carcinoma ( 1 % of the renal malignancies) originating in the renal medulla. Histologic examination shows both tubular and papillary architeture, which can lead to misinterpretation as renal cell or transitional cell carcinoma. Renal cell carcinoma originates from the metanephrogenic blastema and collecting duct carcinoma derived embryologicaly from the mesonephron Wolff duct. Renal cell carcinoma has been shown to express both cytokeratins and vimetin, whereas the distal convoluted tubule expresses only cytokeratins. BDC can be considered as a renal malignancy with a very bad prognosis compared to the other renal cell carcinoma. The best treatment is radical nephrectomy. A case of BDC is reported in a young black man, 27 year old with only history of light left back pain. Ultrasound and other image examinations showed a tumour about 6 cm in the middle and low left kidney. Patient was submitted to extraperitoneal radical nephectomy. Microscopic evaluation revealed kidney's collecting duct carcinoma with metastasis on two retroperitoneal lymphy nodes.

Disruptive innovations at the bottom of the pyramid : can they impact the sustainability of today´s top companies?

Due to the different dynamics required for organizations to serve the emerging market which contains billions of people at the bottom of the pyramid (BOP) coupled with the increasing desire for organizations to grow and be more multinational, organizations need to continually innovate. However, the tendency for large and established companies to ignore the BOP market and rather focus on existing markets, gives an indication of the existence of a vulnerability that potentially disruptive innovations from the BOP will not be recognized in good time for a counter measure. This can be deduced from the fact that good management practice advocates that managers should learn and listen to their customers. Therefore majority of the large existing companies continually focus on their main customer/market with sustaining innovations which leaves aspiring new entrants with an underserved BOP market to experiment with. With the aid of research interviews and an agent-based model (ABM) simulation, this thesis examines the attributes of BOP innovations that can qualify them as disruptive and the possibilities of tangible disruptive innovations arising from the bottom of the pyramid and their underlying drivers. The thesis Furthermore, examines the associated impact of such innovations on the future sustainability of established large companies that are operating in the developed world, particularly those with a primary focus which is targeted towards the market at the top of the pyramid (TOP). Additionally, with the use of a scenario planning model, the research provides an evaluation of the possible evolution and potential sustainability impacts that could emerge, from the interplay of innovations at the two pyramidal market levels and the chosen market focus of organizations – TOP or BOP. Using four scenario quadrants, the thesis demonstrates the resulting possibilities from the interaction between the rate of innovations and the segment focused on by organizations with disruptive era characterizing the paradigm shift quadrant. Furthermore, a mathematical model and two theoretical propositions are developed for further research. As recommendations, the thesis also extends the ambidextrous organizational theory, business model innovation and portfolio diversification as plausible recommendations to limit a catastrophic impact, resulting from disruptive innovations.

QT interval in healthy dogs: which method of correcting the QT interval in dogs is appropriate for use in small animal clinics?

The electrocardiography (ECG) QT interval is influenced by fluctuations in heart rate (HR) what may lead to misinterpretation of its length. Considering that alterations in QT interval length reflect abnormalities of the ventricular repolarisation which predispose to occurrence of arrhythmias, this variable must be properly evaluated. The aim of this work is to determine which method of correcting the QT interval is the most appropriate for dogs regarding different ranges of normal HR (different breeds). Healthy adult dogs (n=130; German Shepherd, Boxer, Pit Bull Terrier, and Poodle) were submitted to ECG examination and QT intervals were determined in triplicates from the bipolar limb II lead and corrected for the effects of HR through the application of three published formulae involving quadratic, cubic or linear regression. The mean corrected QT values (QTc) obtained using the diverse formulae were significantly different (ρ<0.05), while those derived according to the equation QTcV = QT + 0.087(1- RR) were the most consistent (linear regression). QTcV values were strongly correlated (r=0.83) with the QT interval and showed a coefficient of variation of 8.37% and a 95% confidence interval of 0.22-0.23 s. Owing to its simplicity and reliability, the QTcV was considered the most appropriate to be used for the correction of QT interval in dogs.

Ingest into the Digital Preservation Network: Standard Pipelines

Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Tree population and community dynamics in a Brazilian tropical semideciduous forest

The dynamics of the tree community and 30 tree populations were examined in an area of tropical semideciduous forest located on the margin of the Rio Grande, SE Brazil, based on surveys done in 1990 and 1997 in three 0.18 ha plots. The main purpose was to assess whether variations in dynamics were related to topography and the effects of a catastrophic flood in 1992. Rates of mortality and recruitment of trees and gain and loss of basal area in two topographic sites, lower (flooded) and upper (non-flooded), were obtained. Projected trajectories of mean and accelerated growth in diameter were obtained for each species. In both topographic sites, mortality rates surpassed recruitment rates, gain rates of basal area surpassed loss rates, and size distributions changed, with declining proportions of smaller trees. These overall changes were possibly related to increased underground water supply after the 1992 flood as well as to a c. 250-year-old process of primary succession on abandoned gold mines. Possible effects of the 1992 flood showed up in the higher proportions of dead trees in the flooded sites and faster growth rates in the flood-free sites. Species of different regeneration guilds showed particular trends with respect to their demographic changes and diameter growth patterns. Nevertheless, patterns of population dynamics differed between topographic sites for only two species.

In situ variation of cervical mucus pH during exposure to atmospheric air

The objective of the present study was to determine if exposure of cervical mucus to air during specular examination could modify mucus pH. Detection of changes is justified because of their possible interference with sperm-mucus interaction, since an acidic pH is unfavorable to sperm penetration and is associated with infertility due to the cervical factor. Twenty women with good quality mucus were evaluated. pH measurements of ecto- and endocervical mucus were made in situ using a glass electrode after 0-, 5- and 10-min exposure to air. There was a progressive alkalinization of mucus pH. Mean values of ectocervical mucus pH were 6.91, 7.16 and 7.27, while mean values of endocervical mucus pH were 7.09, 7.34 and 7.46 at 0, 5 and 10 min, respectively. Significant differences were found between the mean values obtained at 0 and 5 min, and at 0 and 10 min (P<0.05), whereas the differences in mean values at 5 and 10 min were not significant at either site. We conclude that 5 to 10 min of exposure to atmospheric air affects cervical mucus pH in a significant way. Since tests used to evaluate sperm-mucus interaction generally have not considered this possibility, we suggest that they should be performed immediately after mucus collection in order to avoid misinterpretation of the results.

Climate Change and Ethics of Geoengineering -- Implications Of Climate Emergency Ethics

Global climate change and intentional climate modification, i.e. geoengineering include various ethical problems which are entangled as a complex ensemble of questions regarding the future of the biosphere. The possibilities of catastrophic effects of climate change which are also called “climate emergency” have led to the emergence of the idea of modifying the atmospheric conditions in the form of geoengineering. The novel issue of weather ethics is a subdivision of climate ethics, and it is interested in ethical and political questions surrounding weather and climate control and modification in a restricted spatio-temporal scale. The objective of geoengineering is to counterbalance the adverse effects of climate change and its diverse corollaries in various ways on a large scale. The claim of this dissertation is that there are ethical justifications to claim that currently large-scale interventions to the climate system are ethically questionable. The justification to pursue geoengineering on the basis of considering its pros and cons, is inadequate. Moral judgement can still be elaborated in cases where decisions have to be made urgently and the selection of desirable choices is severely limited. The changes needed to avoid severe negative impacts of climate change requires commitment to mitigation as well as social changes because technical solutions cannot address the issue of climate change altogether. The quantitative emphasis of consumerism should shift to qualitative focus on the aspiration for simplicity in order to a move towards the objective of the continuation of the existence of humankind and a flourishing, vital biosphere.

Educating for Community Resilience: How the Work of Thomas Homer-Dixon and JohnDewey's Pattern of Inquiry Can Help Us Prepare for the Ecological and Social Challenges of the 21st Century

Scientists have overwhelmingly concluded that global warming occurs as a consequence of human activities and that climate change, combined with the depletion of resources, could have catastrophic consequences for the human civilization later this century. However, in political circles and in the public sphere these conclusions are not taken seriously, or they are laid aside for future generations to deal with; at the same time, significant efforts are being deployed to discredit the scientific evidence. In this thesis I have studied the positions of climate scientists as well as those of climate change deniers, and I also examined how their points of view are likely to impact the interests and habits of corporations and citizens. The work of Thomas Homer-Dixon was used as an important source for analyzing the complex interaction between our natural, economic, and social systems, and John Dewey's pattern of inquiry provided the theoretical foundation for an analysis of the current crisis and its possible solutions. No concerted action to deal with climate change has yet been taken by the leaders of the Western world; I corroborated data from four reliable sources (Hansen, 2009; IPCC, 2007; Lynas, 2007; Steffen, 2011) regarding several development scenarios and their likely consequences on greenhouse gas emissions, and I concluded that a future temperature increase of more than 2°C appears now as unavoidable. In the light of this conclusion I argue that education for increasing the resilience of smaller communities is a realistic alternative that can offer some hope in dealing with the challenges ahead.

Pelham Cares Inc. fonds, 1980-2015

The beginnings of Pelham Cares occurred in 1982 when the Mayor of Pelham, Eric Bergenstein, received a letter from Janet Hassall, a social worker with Niagara Regional Home Care. Hassall requested that a Social Service Committee be established in Pelham to address gaps in community services, a practice that several other communities in the Region had adopted. Such committees were commonly composed of church parishioners, so Bergenstein contacted Canon J. Nowe of the Holy Trinity Anglican Church, who expressed an interest in participating in such a committee. Bergenstein arranged a meeting in June, 1982 at the United Church Hall in Fonthill, for any interested parties to learn more about the existing Social Service Committees in the Region. The meeting was not part of a Town Council project, but rather an initiative undertaken by Mayor Bergenstein in a personal capacity. Subsequent meetings chaired by Eric Bergenstein were held throughout the remainder of that year, during which the name of Pelham Cares was decided, a steering committee established, and services to be offered were determined. These initially included “visits with the lonely, the shut-ins, at home, hospital or on an outing ; run errands for those who are “stuck”; step in, in emergencies, or regularly, to free a parent or spouse who can’t otherwise get a “break”; in emergencies, provide food, clothing, furniture, medicine and other necessities”. The first official meeting of Pelham Cares occurred in January 1983. Currently, the main services offered by Pelham Cares are a food bank; transportation services to medical appointments; and sponsorship programs to allow youth with limited financial means to participate in sports, recreational and educational activities. The organization also provides emergency food, supplies or short term accommodation due to fire or other catastrophic loss, as well as providing referrals to appropriate organizations or agencies. Pelham Cares is dependent on the funding from community partners such as service clubs, citizens, local businesses, financial institutions and churches. These services are provided by volunteers and one part-time employee. A permanent location for Pelham Cares was established in 2014 with the purchase of a property on Highway 20 East in Fonthill, after a 30 years search for a permanent facility.