ROC Curves within the Framework of Neural Network Assembly Memory Model: Some Analytic Results

On the basis of convolutional (Hamming) version of recent Neural Network Assembly Memory Model (NNAMM) for intact two-layer autoassociative Hopfield network optimal receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) have been derived analytically. A method of taking into account explicitly a priori probabilities of alternative hypotheses on the structure of information initiating memory trace retrieval and modified ROCs (mROCs, a posteriori probabilities of correct recall vs. false alarm probability) are introduced. The comparison of empirical and calculated ROCs (or mROCs) demonstrates that they coincide quantitatively and in this way intensities of cues used in appropriate experiments may be estimated. It has been found that basic ROC properties which are one of experimental findings underpinning dual-process models of recognition memory can be explained within our one-factor NNAMM.

The network structure of Hungarian business clusters

This article investigates the attitudes to inter-firm co-operation in Hungary by analysing a special group of business networks: the business clusters. Following an overview of cluster policy, a wide range of selfproclaimed business clusters are identified. A small elite of these business networks evolves into successful, sustainable innovative business clusters. However, in the majority of cases, these consortia of interfirm co-operation are not based on a mutually satisfactory model, and as a consequence, many clusters do not survive in the longer term. The paper uses the concepts and models of social network theory in order to explain, why and under what circumstances inter-firm co-operation in clusters enhances the competitiveness of the network as a whole, or alternatively, under what circumstances the cluster remains dependent on Government subsidies. The empirical basis of the study is a thorough internet research about the Hungarian cluster movement; a questionnaire based expert survey among managers of clusters and member companies and a set of in-depth interviews among managers of self-proclaimed clusters. The last chapter analyises the applicability of social network theory in the analysis of business networks and a model involving the value chain is recommended.

Continuous property measurement techniques and physics based mathematical model for frost growth control

The development of a new set of frost property measurement techniques to be used in the control of frost growth and defrosting processes in refrigeration systems was investigated. Holographic interferometry and infrared thermometry were used to measure the temperature of the frost-air interface, while a beam element load sensor was used to obtain the weight of a deposited frost layer. The proposed measurement techniques were tested for the cases of natural and forced convection, and the characteristic charts were obtained for a set of operational conditions. ^ An improvement of existing frost growth mathematical models was also investigated. The early stage of frost nucleation was commonly not considered in these models and instead an initial value of layer thickness and porosity was regularly assumed. A nucleation model to obtain the droplet diameter and surface porosity at the end of the early frosting period was developed. The drop-wise early condensation in a cold flat plate under natural convection to a hot (room temperature) and humid air was modeled. A nucleation rate was found, and the relation of heat to mass transfer (Lewis number) was obtained. It was found that the Lewis number was much smaller than unity, which is the standard value usually assumed for most frosting numerical models. The nucleation model was validated against available experimental data for the early nucleation and full growth stages of the frosting process. ^ The combination of frost top temperature and weight variation signals can now be used to control the defrosting timing and the developed early nucleation model can now be used to simulate the entire process of frost growth in any surface material. ^

LDA-TM : A two-step approach to twitter topic data clustering

The Twitter System is the biggest social network in the world, and everyday millions of tweets are posted and talked about, expressing various views and opinions. A large variety of research activities have been conducted to study how the opinions can be clustered and analyzed, so that some tendencies can be uncovered. Due to the inherent weaknesses of the tweets - very short texts and very informal styles of writing - it is rather hard to make an investigation of tweet data analysis giving results with good performance and accuracy. In this paper, we intend to attack the problem from another aspect - using a two-layer structure to analyze the twitter data: LDA with topic map modelling. The experimental results demonstrate that this approach shows a progress in twitter data analysis. However, more experiments with this method are expected in order to ensure that the accurate analytic results can be maintained.

Subfilter-scale Stress Modelling for Large Eddy Simulations

A subfilter-scale (SFS) stress model is developed for large-eddy simulations (LES) and is tested on various benchmark problems in both wall-resolved and wall-modelled LES. The basic ingredients of the proposed model are the model length-scale, and the model parameter. The model length-scale is defined as a fraction of the integral scale of the flow, decoupled from the grid. The portion of the resolved scales (LES resolution) appears as a user-defined model parameter, an advantage that the user decides the LES resolution. The model parameter is determined based on a measure of LES resolution, the SFS activity. The user decides a value for the SFS activity (based on the affordable computational budget and expected accuracy), and the model parameter is calculated dynamically. Depending on how the SFS activity is enforced, two SFS models are proposed. In one approach the user assigns the global (volume averaged) contribution of SFS to the transport (global model), while in the second model (local model), SFS activity is decided locally (locally averaged). The models are tested on isotropic turbulence, channel flow, backward-facing step and separating boundary layer. In wall-resolved LES, both global and local models perform quite accurately. Due to their near-wall behaviour, they result in accurate prediction of the flow on coarse grids. The backward-facing step also highlights the advantage of decoupling the model length-scale from the mesh. Despite the sharply refined grid near the step, the proposed SFS models yield a smooth, while physically consistent filter-width distribution, which minimizes errors when grid discontinuity is present. Finally the model application is extended to wall-modelled LES and is tested on channel flow and separating boundary layer. Given the coarse resolution used in wall-modelled LES, near the wall most of the eddies become SFS and SFS activity is required to be locally increased. The results are in very good agreement with the data for the channel. Errors in the prediction of separation and reattachment are observed in the separated flow, that are somewhat improved with some modifications to the wall-layer model.

Mathematical models in percutaneous absorption

A number of mathematical models have been used to describe percutaneous absorption kinetics. In general, most of these models have used either diffusion-based or compartmental equations. The object of any mathematical model is to a) be able to represent the processes associated with absorption accurately, b) be able to describe/summarize experimental data with parametric equations or moments, and c) predict kinetics under varying conditions. However, in describing the processes involved, some developed models often suffer from being of too complex a form to be practically useful. In this chapter, we attempt to approach the issue of mathematical modeling in percutaneous absorption from four perspectives. These are to a) describe simple practical models, b) provide an overview of the more complex models, c) summarize some of the more important/useful models used to date, and d) examine sonic practical applications of the models. The range of processes involved in percutaneous absorption and considered in developing the mathematical models in this chapter is shown in Fig. 1. We initially address in vitro skin diffusion models and consider a) constant donor concentration and receptor conditions, b) the corresponding flux, donor, skin, and receptor amount-time profiles for solutions, and c) amount- and flux-time profiles when the donor phase is removed. More complex issues, such as finite-volume donor phase, finite-volume receptor phase, the presence of an efflux. rate constant at the membrane-receptor interphase, and two-layer diffusion, are then considered. We then look at specific models and issues concerned with a) release from topical products, b) use of compartmental models as alternatives to diffusion models, c) concentration-dependent absorption, d) modeling of skin metabolism, e) role of solute-skin-vehicle interactions, f) effects of vehicle loss, a) shunt transport, and h) in vivo diffusion, compartmental, physiological, and deconvolution models. We conclude by examining topics such as a) deep tissue penetration, b) pharmacodynamics, c) iontophoresis, d) sonophoresis, and e) pitfalls in modeling.

Early identification of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome by use of a validated prediction model

Objective: To identify prediction factors for the development of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome (LPHS). Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study. The study comprised of 203 patients, aged >= 14 years, admitted with complications of the severe form of leptospirosis at the Emilio Ribas Institute of Infectology (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1998 and 2004. Laboratory and demographic data were obtained and the severity of illness score and involvement of the lungs and others organs were determined. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of LPHS. A prospective validation cohort of 97 subjects with severe form of leptospirosis admitted at the same hospital between 2004 and 2006 was used to independently evaluate the predictive value of the model. Results: The overall mortality rate was 7.9%. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that five factors were independently associated with the development of LPHS: serum potassium (mmol/L) (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-5.9); serum creatinine (mmol/L) (OR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.4); respiratory rate (breaths/min) (OR = 1.1; 95% CI = 1.1-1.2); presenting shock (OR = 69.9; 95% CI = 20.1-236.4), and Glasgow Coma Scale Score (GCS) < 15 (OR = 7.7; 95% CI = 1.3-23.0). We used these findings to calculate the risk of LPHS by the use of a spreadsheet. In the validation cohort, the equation classified correctly 92% of patients (Kappa statistic = 0.80). Conclusions: We developed and validated a multivariate model for predicting LPHS. This tool should prove useful in identifying LPHS patients, allowing earlier management and thereby reducing mortality. (C) 2009 The British Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic modelling of CO2 corrosion laboratory data using neural networks

The present paper addresses two major concerns that were identified when developing neural network based prediction models and which can limit their wider applicability in the industry. The first problem is that it appears neural network models are not readily available to a corrosion engineer. Therefore the first part of this paper describes a neural network model of CO2 corrosion which was created using a standard commercial software package and simple modelling strategies. It was found that such a model was able to capture practically all of the trends noticed in the experimental data with acceptable accuracy. This exercise has proven that a corrosion engineer could readily develop a neural network model such as the one described below for any problem at hand, given that sufficient experimental data exist. This applies even in the cases when the understanding of the underlying processes is poor. The second problem arises from cases when all the required inputs for a model are not known or can be estimated with a limited degree of accuracy. It seems advantageous to have models that can take as input a range rather than a single value. One such model, based on the so-called Monte Carlo approach, is presented. A number of comparisons are shown which have illustrated how a corrosion engineer might use this approach to rapidly test the sensitivity of a model to the uncertainities associated with the input parameters. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marker concentration patterns of labelled leaf and stem particles in the rumen of cattle grazing bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon) analysed by reference to a raft model

Large (>1600 mum), ingestively masticated particles of bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon L. Pers.) leaf and stem labelled with Yb-169 and Ce-144 respectively were inserted into the rumen digesta raft of heifers grazing bermuda grass. The concentration of markers in digesta sampled from the raft and ventral rumen were monitored at regular intervals over approximately 144 h. The data from the two sampling sites were simultaneously fitted to two pool (raft and ventral rumen-reticulum) models with either reversible or sequential flow between the two pools. The sequential flow model fitted the data equally as well as the reversible flow model but the reversible flow model was used because of its greater application. The reversible flow model, hereafter called the raft model, had the following features: a relatively slow age-dependent transfer rate from the raft (means for a gamma 2 distributed rate parameter for leaf 0.0740 v. stem 0.0478 h(-1)), a very slow first order reversible flow from the ventral rumen to the raft (mean for leaf and stem 0.010 h(-1)) and a very rapid first order exit from the ventral rumen (mean of leaf and stem 0.44 h(-1)). The raft was calculated to occupy approximately 0.82 total rumen DM of the raft and ventral rumen pools. Fitting a sequential two pool model or a single exponential model individually to values from each of the two sampling sites yielded similar parameter values for both sites and faster rate parameters for leaf as compared with stem, in agreement with the raft model. These results were interpreted as indicating that the raft forms a large relatively inert pool within the rumen. Particles generated within the raft have difficulty escaping but once into the ventral rumen pool they escape quickly with a low probability of return to the raft. It was concluded that the raft model gave a good interpretation of the data and emphasized escape from and movement within the raft as important components of the residence time of leaf and stem particles within the rumen digesta of cattle.

Two-locus Linkage Analysis Applied to Putative Quantitative Trait Loci for Lipoprotein(a) Levels

Plasma levels of lipoprotein(a) _ Lp(a) _ are associated with cardiovascular risk (Danesh et al., 2000) and were long believed to be influenced by the LPA locus on chromosome 6q27 only. However, a recent report of Broeckel et al. (2002) suggested the presence of a second quantitative trait locus on chromosome 1 influencing Lp(a) levels. Using a two-locus model, we found no evidence for an additional Lp(a) locus on chromosome 1 in a linkage study among 483 dizygotic twin pairs.

From unthinned continent to ocean: The deep structure of the West Iberia passive continental margin at 38 degrees N

The crustal and lithospheric mantle structure at the south segment of the west Iberian margin was investigated along a 370 km long seismic transect. The transect goes from unthinned continental crust onshore to oceanic crust, crossing the ocean-continent transition (OCT) zone. The wide-angle data set includes recordings from 6 OBSs and 2 inland seismic stations. Kinematic and dynamic modeling provided a 2D velocity model that proved to be consistent with the modeled free-air anomaly data. The interpretation of coincident multi-channel near-vertical and wide-angle reflection data sets allowed the identification of four main crustal domains: (i) continental (east of 9.4 degrees W); (ii) continental thinning (9.4 degrees W-9.7 degrees W): (iii) transitional (9.7 degrees W-similar to 10.5 degrees W); and (iv) oceanic (west of similar to 10.5 degrees W). In the continental domain the complete crustal section of slightly thinned continental crust is present. The upper (UCC, 5.1-6.0 km/s) and the lower continental crust (LCC, 6.9-7.2 km/s) are seismically reflective and have intermediate to low P-wave velocity gradients. The middle continental crust (MCC, 6.35-6.45 km/s) is generally unreflective with low velocity gradient. The main thinning of the continental crust occurs in the thinning domain by attenuation of the UCC and the LCC. Major thinning of the MCC starts to the west of the LCC pinchout point, where it rests directly upon the mantle. In the thinning domain the Moho slope is at least 13 degrees and the continental crust thickness decreases seaward from 22 to 11 km over a similar to 35 km distance, stretched by a factor of 1.5 to 3. In the oceanic domain a two-layer high-gradient igneous crust (5.3-6.0 km/s; 6.5-7.4 km/s) was modeled. The intra-crustal interface correlates with prominent mid-basement, 10-15 km long reflections in the multi-channel seismic profile. Strong secondary reflected PmP phases require a first order discontinuity at the Moho. The sedimentary cover can be as thick as 5 km and the igneous crustal thickness varies from 4 to 11 km in the west, where the profile reaches the Madeira-Tore Rise. In the transitional domain the crust has a complex structure that varies both horizontally and vertically. Beneath the continental slope it includes exhumed continental crust (6.15-6.45 km/s). Strong diffractions were modeled to originate at the lower interface of this layer. The western segment of this transitional domain is highly reflective at all levels, probably due to dykes and sills, according to the high apparent susceptibility and density modeled at this location. Sub-Moho mantle velocity is found to be 8.0 km/s, but velocities smaller than 8.0 km/s confined to short segments are not excluded by the data. Strong P-wave wide-angle reflections are modeled to originate at depth of 20 km within the lithospheric mantle, under the eastern segment of the oceanic domain, or even deeper at the transitional domain, suggesting a layered structure for the lithospheric mantle. Both interface depths and velocities of the continental section are in good agreement to the conjugate Newfoundland margin. A similar to 40 km wide OCT having a geophysical signature distinct from the OCT to the north favors a two pulse continental breakup.

Activos fixos tangíveis numa empresa industrial do ramo automóvel transição para o SNC

Dissertação para a obtenção do grau de mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientador: Mestre António Costa Reis

Estudo empírico da caracterização da selecção de fornecedores

O problema de selecção de fornecedores/parceiros é uma parte integrante e importante nas empresas que se propõem a um desempenho competitivo e lucrativo na sua área de actividade. A escolha do melhor fornecedor/parceiro passa na maior parte da vezes por fazer uma análise cuidada dos factores que podem influenciar positiva ou negativamente essa escolha. Desde cedo este problema tem vindo a ser alvo de inúmeros estudos, estudos esses que se focam essencialmente nos critérios a considerar e nas metodologias a adoptar para optimizar a escolha dos parceiros. De entre os vários estudos efectuados, muitos são os que consideram como critérios chave o custo do produto, a qualidade, a entrega e a reputação da empresa fornecedora. Ainda assim, há muitos outros que são referidos e que na sua maioria se apresentam como subcritérios. No âmbito deste trabalho, foram identificados cinco grandes critérios, Qualidade, Sistema Financeiro, Sinergias, Custo e Sistema Produtivo. Dentro desses critérios, sentiu-se a necessidade de incluir alguns subcritérios pelo que, cada um dos critérios chave apresenta cinco subcritérios. Identificados os critérios, foi necessário perceber de que forma são aplicados e que modelos são utilizados para se poder tirar o melhor partido das informações. Sabendo que existem modelos que privilegiam a programação matemática e outros que fazem uso de ponderações lineares para se identificar o melhor fornecedor, foi realizado um inquérito e contactadas empresas por forma a perceber quais os factores que mais peso tinham nas suas decisões de escolha de parceiros. Interpretados os resultados e tratados os dados foi adoptado um modelo de ponderação linear para traduzir a importância de cada um dos factores. O modelo proposto apresenta uma estrutura hierárquica e pode ser aplicado com o método AHP de Saaty ou o método de Análise de Valor. Este modelo permite escolher a ou as alternativas que melhor se adequam aos requisitos das empresas.

Simulation of offshore wind system with two-level converters: HVDC power transmission

A new integrated mathematical model for the simulation of offshore wind energy conversion system performance is presented in this paper. The mathematical model considers an offshore variable-speed turbine in deep water equipped with a permanent magnet synchronous generator using full-power two-level converter, converting the energy of a variable frequency source in injected energy into the electric network with constant frequency, through a high voltage DC transmission submarine cable. The mathematical model for the drive train is a concentrate two mass model which incorporates the dynamic for the structure and tower due to the need to emulate the effects of the moving surface. Controller strategy considered is a proportional integral one. Also, pulse width modulation using space vector modulation supplemented with sliding mode is used for trigger the transistor of the converter. Finally, a case study is presented to access the system performance. © 2014 IEEE.

Simulation of offshore wind system with two levels converters: HVDC power transmission

A new integrated mathematical model for the simulation of offshore wind energy conversion system performance is presented in this paper. The mathematical model considers an offshore variable-speed turbine in deep water equipped with a permanent magnet synchronous generator using full-power two-level converter, converting the energy of a variable frequency source in injected energy into the electric network with constant frequency, through a high voltage DC transmission submarine cable. The mathematical model for the drive train is a concentrate two mass model which incorporates the dynamic for the structure and tower due to the need to emulate the effects of the moving surface. Controller strategy considered is a proportional integral one. Also, pulse width modulation using space vector modulation supplemented with sliding mode is used for trigger the transistor of the converter. Finally, a case study is presented to access the system performance. © 2014 IEEE.