Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Pyhä Kolminaisuus vai pilven reunalla istuva partasuu? : Jumalakuva evankelisluterilaisissa ja ortodoksissa 1.–4.-luokan uskonnon oppikirjoissa 1970–80- ja 2000-luvuilla

A concept of god is a wholeness that an individual experiences as God. The Christian concept of god is based on triune God: Father, Son, and the Holy Spirit. The concept of god is examined in different kinds of contexts particularly between the 1940's and the 1970's. Many researches of school books have widely been made in Finland, but, however, only a few from the point of view of the concept of god. Considering this, the concept of god in the school books of Evangelical Lutheran and Orthodox religion from first to fourth grade in 1970–80 and 2000 is examined in this survey. Additionally, the concept of god in curricula between years 1970 and 2004 is studied. The perspective on the concept of god is the change in the course of time and denominational emphasis. As a first hypothesis, God the Father is represented in books in 21st century as a kind and loving figure. As a second hypothesis, the Trinity and the Holy Spirit get more space in Orthodox books comparing with the Lutheran books. Twelve school books of Evangelical Lutheran and Orthodox religion from first to fourth grade were used as a research material. The books were from four different series between the years 1978 and 2005. Teacher's guidebooks and student's exercise books were left outside of this survey. The research material was analyzed by using abductive content analysis and methodological triangulation. This study included both qualitative and quantitative aspects. The classification system which defined the classifying of concept of god from the research material was consisted of the basis of research material, former reseach, and subtext of used theories. The number of mentions in concept of god was higher in books from the 21st century. In Lutheran books, the change was seen as a growth of the category of God the Father. In Orthodox books, the trend was opposite: the category of Jesus the Son had grown. Differing from the presupposition, the features of loving God in new books had less emphasis than in older books in both churces. The mentions of the Holy Spirit and Trinity were marginal. In the Orthodox books, the categories were bigger, as it was presupposed. It could be seen, that the books confirmed the legalistic period of the concept of god on 3rd and 4th grades. The mentions of concept of god in curriculas have diminished and generalized. The diminution was seen most radically in the curriculum from the year 1994. The results tell something about social changes and views of innovation in curricula. In books the change was not perceived that bright. The idea of the concept of god getting shrank and decreased during the time can be refused.

Genetic burden associated with varying degrees of disease severity in endometriosis

Endometriosis is primarily characterized by the presence of tissue resembling endometrium outside the uterine cavity and is usually diagnosed by laparoscopy. The most commonly used classification of disease, the revised American Fertility Society (rAFS) system to grade endometriosis into different stages based on disease severity (I to IV), has been questioned as it does not correlate well with underlying symptoms, posing issues in diagnosis and choice of treatment. Using two independent European genome-wide association (GWA) datasets and top-level classification of the endometriosis cases based on rAFS [minimal or mild (Stage A) and moderate-to-severe (Stage B) disease], we previously showed that Stage B endometriosis has greater contribution of common genetic variation to its aetiology than Stage A disease. Herein, we extend our previous analysis to four endometriosis stages [minimal (Stage I), mild (Stage II), moderate (Stage III) and severe (Stage IV) disease] based on the rAFS classification system and compared the genetic burden across stages. Our results indicate that genetic burden increases from minimal to severe endometriosis. For the minimal disease, genetic factors may contribute to a lesser extent than other disease categories. Mild and moderate endometriosis appeared genetically similar, making it difficult to tease them apart. Consistent with our previous reports, moderate and severe endometriosis showed greater genetic burden than minimal or mild disease. Overall, our results provide new insights into the genetic architecture of endometriosis and further investigation in larger samples may help to understand better the aetiology of varying degrees of endometriosis, enabling improved diagnostic and treatment modalities.

A capability-based view of organisational renewal : Combining opportunity- and advantage-seeking growth in large, established European and North American wood-industry companies

The purpose of this study was to extend understanding of how large firms pursuing sustained and profitable growth manage organisational renewal. A multiple-case study was conducted in 27 North American and European wood-industry companies, of which 11 were chosen for closer study. The study combined the organisational-capabilities approach to strategic management with corporate-entrepreneurship thinking. It charted the further development of an identification and classification system for capabilities comprising three dimensions: (i) the dynamism between firm-specific and industry-significant capabilities, (ii) hierarchies of capabilities and capability portfolios, and (iii) their internal structure. Capability building was analysed in the context of the organisational design, the technological systems and the type of resource-bundling process (creating new vs. entrenching existing capabilities). The thesis describes the current capability portfolios and the organisational changes in the case companies. It also clarifies the mechanisms through which companies can influence the balance between knowledge search and the efficiency of knowledge transfer and integration in their daily business activities, and consequently the diversity of their capability portfolio and the breadth and novelty of their product/service range. The largest wood-industry companies of today must develop a seemingly dual strategic focus: they have to combine leading-edge, innovative solutions with cost-efficient, large-scale production. The use of modern technology in production was no longer a primary source of competitiveness in the case companies, but rather belonged to the portfolio of basic capabilities. Knowledge and information management had become an industry imperative, on a par with cost effectiveness. Yet, during the period of this research, the case companies were better in supporting growth in volume of the existing activity than growth through new economic activities. Customer-driven, incremental innovation was preferred over firm-driven innovation through experimentation. The three main constraints on organisational renewal were the lack of slack resources, the aim for lean, centralised designs, and the inward-bound communication climate.

Decision trees for detection of activity intensity in youth with cerebral palsy

PURPOSE To develop and test decision tree (DT) models to classify physical activity (PA) intensity from accelerometer output and Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) classification level in ambulatory youth with cerebral palsy (CP); and 2) compare the classification accuracy of the new DT models to that achieved by previously published cut-points for youth with CP. METHODS Youth with CP (GMFCS Levels I - III) (N=51) completed seven activity trials with increasing PA intensity while wearing a portable metabolic system and ActiGraph GT3X accelerometers. DT models were used to identify vertical axis (VA) and vector magnitude (VM) count thresholds corresponding to sedentary (SED) (<1.5 METs), light PA (LPA) (>/=1.5 and <3 METs) and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) (>/=3 METs). Models were trained and cross-validated using the 'rpart' and 'caret' packages within R. RESULTS For the VA (VA_DT) and VM decision trees (VM_DT), a single threshold differentiated LPA from SED, while the threshold for differentiating MVPA from LPA decreased as the level of impairment increased. The average cross-validation accuracy for the VC_DT was 81.1%, 76.7%, and 82.9% for GMFCS levels I, II, and III, respectively. The corresponding cross-validation accuracy for the VM_DT was 80.5%, 75.6%, and 84.2%, respectively. Within each GMFCS level, the decision tree models achieved better PA intensity recognition than previously published cut-points. The accuracy differential was greatest among GMFCS level III participants, in whom the previously published cut-points misclassified 40% of the MVPA activity trials. CONCLUSION GMFCS-specific cut-points provide more accurate assessments of MVPA levels in youth with CP across the full spectrum of ambulatory ability.

Reliability and validity of objective measures of physical activity in youth with cerebral palsy who are ambulatory

BACKGROUND Physical therapy for youth with cerebral palsy (CP) who are ambulatory includes interventions to increase functional mobility and participation in physical activity (PA). Thus, reliable and valid measures are needed to document PA in youth with CP. OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to evaluate the inter-instrument reliability and concurrent validity of 3 accelerometer-based motion sensors with indirect calorimetry as the criterion for measuring PA intensity in youth with CP. METHODS Fifty-seven youth with CP (mean age=12.5 years, SD=3.3; 51% female; 49.1% with spastic hemiplegia) participated. Inclusion criteria were: aged 6 to 20 years, ambulatory, Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) levels I through III, able to follow directions, and able to complete the full PA protocol. Protocol activities included standardized activity trials with increasing PA intensity (resting, writing, household chores, active video games, and walking at 3 self-selected speeds), as measured by weight-relative oxygen uptake (in mL/kg/min). During each trial, participants wore bilateral accelerometers on the upper arms, waist/hip, and ankle and a portable indirect calorimeter. Intraclass coefficient correlations (ICCs) were calculated to evaluate inter-instrument reliability (left-to-right accelerometer placement). Spearman correlations were used to examine concurrent validity between accelerometer output (activity and step counts) and indirect calorimetry. Friedman analyses of variance with post hoc pair-wise analyses were conducted to examine the validity of accelerometers to discriminate PA intensity across activity trials. RESULTS All accelerometers exhibited excellent inter-instrument reliability (ICC=.94-.99) and good concurrent validity (rho=.70-.85). All accelerometers discriminated PA intensity across most activity trials. LIMITATIONS This PA protocol consisted of controlled activity trials. CONCLUSIONS Accelerometers provide valid and reliable measures of PA intensity among youth with CP.

Validity of the OMNI rating of perceived exertion scale for children and adolescents with cerebral palsy

Aim This study evaluated the validity of the OMNI Walk/Run Rating of Perceived Exertion (OMNI-RPE) scores with heart rate and oxygen consumption (VO2) for children and adolescents with cerebral palsy (CP). Method Children and adolescents with CP, aged 6 to 18 years and Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) levels I to III completed a physical activity protocol with seven trials ranging in intensity from sedentary to moderate-to-vigorous. VO2 and heart rate were recorded during the physical activity trials using a portable indirect calorimeter and heart rate monitor. Participants reported OMNI-RPE scores for each trial. Concurrent validity was assessed by calculating the average within-subject correlation between OMNI-RPE ratings and the two physiological indices. Results For the correlational analyses, 48 participants (22 males, 26 females; age 12y 6mo, SD 3y 4mo) had valid bivariate data for VO2 and OMNI-RPE, while 40 participants (21 males, 19 females; age 12y 5mo, SD 2y 9mo) had valid bivariate data for heart rate and OMNI-RPE. VO2 (r=0.80; 95% CI 0.66–0.88) and heart rate (r=0.83; 95% CI 0.70–0.91) were moderately to highly correlated to OMNI-RPE scores. No difference was found for the correlation of physiological data and OMNI-RPE scores across the three GMFCS levels. The OMNI-RPE scores increased significantly in a dose-response manner (F6,258=116.1, p<0.001) as exercise intensity increased from sedentary to moderate-to-vigorous. Interpretation OMNI-RPE is a clinically feasible option to monitor exercise intensity in ambulatory children and adolescents with CP.

Towards automated content analysis of discussion transcripts: A cognitive presence case

In this paper, we present the results of an exploratory study that examined the problem of automating content analysis of student online discussion transcripts. We looked at the problem of coding discussion transcripts for the levels of cognitive presence, one of the three main constructs in the Community of Inquiry (CoI) model of distance education. Using Coh-Metrix and LIWC features, together with a set of custom features developed to capture discussion context, we developed a random forest classification system that achieved 70.3% classification accuracy and 0.63 Cohen's kappa, which is significantly higher than values reported in the previous studies. Besides improvement in classification accuracy, the developed system is also less sensitive to overfitting as it uses only 205 classification features, which is around 100 times less features than in similar systems based on bag-of-words features. We also provide an overview of the classification features most indicative of the different phases of cognitive presence that gives an additional insights into the nature of cognitive presence learning cycle. Overall, our results show great potential of the proposed approach, with an added benefit of providing further characterization of the cognitive presence coding scheme.

Offloading content routing cost from routers

The publish/subscribe paradigm has lately received much attention. In publish/subscribe systems, a specialized event-based middleware delivers notifications of events created by producers (publishers) to consumers (subscribers) interested in that particular event. It is considered a good approach for implementing Internet-wide distributed systems as it provides full decoupling of the communicating parties in time, space and synchronization. One flavor of the paradigm is content-based publish/subscribe which allows the subscribers to express their interests very accurately. In order to implement a content-based publish/subscribe middleware in way suitable for Internet scale, its underlying architecture must be organized as a peer-to-peer network of content-based routers that take care of forwarding the event notifications to all interested subscribers. A communication infrastructure that provides such service is called a content-based network. A content-based network is an application-level overlay network. Unfortunately, the expressiveness of the content-based interaction scheme comes with a price - compiling and maintaining the content-based forwarding and routing tables is very expensive when the amount of nodes in the network is large. The routing tables are usually partially-ordered set (poset) -based data structures. In this work, we present an algorithm that aims to improve scalability in content-based networks by reducing the workload of content-based routers by offloading some of their content routing cost to clients. We also provide experimental results of the performance of the algorithm. Additionally, we give an introduction to the publish/subscribe paradigm and content-based networking and discuss alternative ways of improving scalability in content-based networks. ACM Computing Classification System (CCS): C.2.4 [Computer-Communication Networks]: Distributed Systems - Distributed applications

Avoimet julkaisuarkistot ja niiden tekniikka

Open Access -liike pyrkii vapauttamaan tieteellisen tiedon kaupallisuuden rajoitteista edesauttamalla artikkeleiden rinnakkaisversioiden avointa ja esteetöntä verkkotallennusta. Sen mahdollistamiseksi verkkoon perustetaan julkaisuarkistoja, joiden toiminta-ajatuksena on säilöä taustayhteisönsä tieteellinen tuotanto avoimesti ja keskitetysti yhteen paikkaan. Avoimen lähdekoodin arkistosovellukset jakavat sisältönsä OAI-protokollan avulla ja muodostavat näin globaalin virtuaalisen tietoverkon. Suurten tietomäärien käsittelyssä on huomioitava erityisesti kuvailutiedon rooli tehokkaiden hakujen toteuttamisessa sekä tiedon yksilöiminen verkossa erilaisten pysyvien tunnisteiden, kuten Handle:n tai URN:n avulla. Tieteellisen tiedon avoimella saatavuudella on merkittävä vaikutus myös oppimisen näkökulmasta. Julkaisuarkistot tarjoavat oppimateriaalin lisäksi uusia mahdollisuuksia julkaisukanavan ja oppimisymp äristön integroimiseen. Työssä esitellään avoimen saatavuuden keskeisiä teemoja sekä sen käytännön toteutusta varten kehitettyjä teknisiä ratkaisuja. Näiden pohjalta toteutetaan Meilahden kampuksen avoin julkaisuarkisto. Työssä pohditaan myös julkaisuarkistojen soveltuvuutta oppimisprosessin tukemiseen tutkivan- ja sulautuvan oppimisen viitekehyksessä. ACM Computing Classification System (CCS): H.3 [INFORMATION STORAGE AND RETRIEVAL], H.3.7 [Digital Libraries], H.3.3 [Information Search and Retrieval], H.3.5 [Online Information Services], K.3 [COMPUTERS AND EDUCATION], K.3.1 [Computer Uses in Education]

Testaus Scrum-prosessimallissa

Testaus ketterissä menetelmissä (agile) on kirjallisuudessa heikosti määritelty, ja yritykset toteuttavat laatu- ja testauskäytäntöjä vaihtelevasti. Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena oli löytää malli testauksen järjestämiseen ketterissä menetelmissä. Tavoitetta lähestyttiin keräämällä kirjallisista lähteistä kokemuksia, vaihtoehtoja ja malleja. Löydettyjä tietoja verrattiin ohjelmistoyritysten käytännön ratkaisuihin ja näkemyksiin, joita saatiin suorittamalla kyselytutkimus kahdessa Scrum-prosessimallia käyttävässä ohjelmistoyrityksessä. Kirjallisuuskatsauksessa selvisi, että laatusuunnitelman ja testausstrategian avulla voidaan tunnistaa kussakin kontekstissa tarvittavat testausmenetelmät. Menetelmiä kannattaa tarkastella ja suunnitella iteratiivisten prosessien aikajänteiden (sydämenlyönti, iteraatio, julkaisu ja strateginen) avulla. Tutkimuksen suurin löytö oli, että yrityksiltä puuttui laajempi ja suunnitelmallinen näkemys testauksen ja laadun kehittämiseen. Uusien laatu- ja testaustoimenpiteiden tarvetta ei analysoitu järjestelmällisesti, olemassa olevien käyttöä ei kehitetty pitkäjänteisesti, eikä yrityksillä ollut kokonaiskuvaa tarvittavien toimenpiteiden keskinäisistä suhteista. Lisäksi tutkimuksessa selvisi, etteivät tiimit kyenneet ottamaan vastuuta laadusta, koska laatuun liittyviä toimenpiteitä tehdään iteraatioissa liian vähän. Myös Scrum-prosessimallin noudattamisessa oli korjaamisen varaa. Yritykset kuitenkin osoittivat halua ja kykyä kehittää toimintaansa ongelmien tunnistamisen jälkeen. ACM Computing Classification System (CCS 1998): D.2.5 Testing and Debugging, D.2.9 Management, K.6.1 Project and People Management, K.6.3 Software Management

Korkean käytettävyyden klusterointiteknologioiden vertailu

Tutkielma käsittelee korkean käytettävyyden klustereita. Tavoitteena on vertailla eri klusteriteknologioiden eroja ja arvioida tulosten perusteella sopivia käyttökohteita eri klusterituotteille. Samoja funktioita tarjoavat eri klusterituotteet asetetaan paremmuusjärjestykseen. Arviointi perustuu erilaisiin määrällisiin arvoihin, kuten solmulaitteiden maksimilukumäärä, sekä laadullisiin arvoihin, kuten käyttöönoton ja hallinnoinnin helppous. Erityisesti tavoitteena on tuoda esille eri tuotteiden vahvuuksia ja heikkouksia. Vertailtavia tuotteita ovat Microsoft Cluster Service (MSCS), TruCluster Server for Tru64 UNIX, Steeleye Lifekeeper for Windows ja Sun Cluster. ACM Computing Classification System (CSS): D.4 OPERATING SYSTEMS (C) D.4.5 Reliability

Näkövammaisten tietokoneavusteinen tiedon hankinta

The study examines various uses of computer technology in acquisition of information for visually impaired people. For this study 29 visually impaired persons took part in a survey about their experiences concerning acquisition of infomation and use of computers, especially with a screen magnification program, a speech synthesizer and a braille display. According to the responses, the evolution of computer technology offers an important possibility for visually impaired people to cope with everyday activities and interacting with the environment. Nevertheless, the functionality of assistive technology needs further development to become more usable and versatile. Since the challenges of independent observation of environment were emphasized in the survey, the study led into developing a portable text vision system called Tekstinäkö. Contrary to typical stand-alone applications, Tekstinäkö system was constructed by combining devices and programs that are readily available on consumer market. As the system operates, pictures are taken by a digital camera and instantly transmitted to a text recognition program in a laptop computer that talks out loud the text using a speech synthesizer. Visually impaired test users described that even unsure interpretations of the texts in the environment given by Tekstinäkö system are at least a welcome addition to complete perception of the environment. It became clear that even with a modest development work it is possible to bring new, useful and valuable methods to everyday life of disabled people. Unconventional production process of the system appeared to be efficient as well. Achieved results and the proposed working model offer one suggestion for giving enough attention to easily overlooked needs of the people with special abilities. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): K.4.2 Social Issues: Assistive technologies for persons with disabilities I.4.9 Image processing and computer vision: Applications Keywords: Visually impaired, computer-assisted, information, acquisition, assistive technology, computer, screen magnification program, speech synthesizer, braille display, survey, testing, text recognition, camera, text, perception, picture, environment, trasportation, guidance, independence, vision, disabled, blind, speech, synthesizer, braille, software engineering, programming, program, system, freeware, shareware, open source, Tekstinäkö, text vision, TopOCR, Autohotkey, computer engineering, computer science

How do Australian podiatrists manage patients with diabetes The Australian diabetic foot management survey

Background Diabetic foot complications are the leading cause of lower extremity amputation and diabetes-related hospitalisation in Australia. Studies demonstrate significant reductions in amputations and hospitalisation when health professionals implement best practice management. Whilst other nations have surveyed health professionals on specific diabetic foot management, to the best of the authors’ knowledge this appears not to have occurred in Australia. The primary aim of this study was to examine Australian podiatrists’ diabetic foot management compared with best practice recommendations by the Australian National Health Medical Research Council. Methods A 36-item Australian Diabetic Foot Management survey, employing seven-point Likert scales (0 = Never; 7 = Always) to measure multiple aspects of best practice diabetic foot management was developed. The survey was briefly tested for face and content validity. The survey was electronically distributed to Australian podiatrists via professional associations. Demographics including sex, years treating patients with diabetes, employment-sector and patient numbers were also collected. Chi-squared and Mann Whitney U tests were used to test differences between sub-groups. Results Three hundred and eleven podiatrists responded; 222 (71%) were female, 158 (51%) from the public sector and 11–15 years median experience. Participants reported treating a median of 21–30 diabetes patients each week, including 1–5 with foot ulcers. Overall, participants registered median scores of at least “very often” (>6) in their use of most items covering best practice diabetic foot management. Notable exceptions were: “never” (1 (1 – 3)) using total contact casting, “sometimes” (4 (2 – 5)) performing an ankle brachial index, “sometimes” (4 (1 – 6)) using University of Texas Wound Classification System, and “sometimes” (4 (3 – 6) referring to specialist multi-disciplinary foot teams. Public sector podiatrists reported higher use or access on all those items compared to private sector podiatrists (p < 0.01). Conclusions This study provides the first baseline information on Australian podiatrists’ adherence to best practice diabetic foot guidelines. It appears podiatrists manage large caseloads of people with diabetes and are generally implementing best practice guidelines recommendations with some notable exceptions. Further studies are required to identify barriers to implementing these recommendations to ensure all Australians with diabetes have access to best practice care to prevent amputations.

Tumour markers as prognostic factors of survival of gastric cancer patients

The incidence of gastric cancer in the last decades has declined rapidly in the industrialised countries. Worldwide, however, gastric cancer is still the second most common cause of cancer death. Although surgery is currently the most effective treatment, the rapid progress in adjuvant chemotherapy and radiation therapy requires a re-evaluation of prognosis assessment. The TNM staging system of the UICC is ubiquitously used; it groups patients by decreasing survival times from stage I to stage IV based on the spread of disease, i.e. depth of tumour penetration (T), extent of spread to lymph nodes (N), and the presence or absence of distant (M) metastases. This is by far the most consistent prognostic classification system today. However, even within the stage groups there are patients that follow a varying course of disease. Our knowledge of the molecular differences between tumours of the same stage and morphology has been accumulating over the years and methods for a more accurate assessment of the phenotype of neoplasias are of value when evaluating the prognosis of individual patients with gastric cancer. In this study, the immunohistochemical expression of tumour markers involved in different phases in tumourigenesis was examined. The aim was to find new markers which could provide prognostic information in addition to what is provided by the TNM variables. A total of 337 specimens from the primary tumour of patients who underwent surgery for gastric cancer were collected and the immunohistochemical expression of seven different biomarkers was analysed. DNA ploidy and S-phase fraction (SPF) was assessed by flow cytometry. Finally, all biomarkers and clinicopathological prognostic factors were combined and evaluated by a multivariate Cox regression model to elucidate which specific factors provide independent prognostic information. By univariate survival analysis the following variables were significant prognostic factors: epithelial and stromal syndecan-1 expression, stromal tenascin-C expression, expression of tumour-associated trypsin inhibitor (TATI) in cancer cells, nuclear p53 expression, nuclear p21 expression, DNA ploidy, and SPF. By multivariate survival analysis adjusted for all available clinicopathological and biomolecular variables, p53 expression, p21 expression, and DNA ploidy emerged as independent prognostic biomarkers, together with penetration depth of the tumour, presence of nodal metastases, surgical cure of the cancer, and age of the patient at the time of diagnosis.