Bayesian parametric bootstrap for models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper it is demonstrated how the Bayesian parametric bootstrap can be adapted to models with intractable likelihoods. The approach is most appealing when the semi-automatic approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) summary statistics are selected. After a pilot run of ABC, the likelihood-free parametric bootstrap approach requires very few model simulations to produce an approximate posterior, which can be a useful approximation in its own right. An alternative is to use this approximation as a proposal distribution in ABC algorithms to make them more efficient. In this paper, the parametric bootstrap approximation is used to form the initial importance distribution for the sequential Monte Carlo and the ABC importance and rejection sampling algorithms. The new approach is illustrated through a simulation study of the univariate g-and- k quantile distribution, and is used to infer parameter values of a stochastic model describing expanding melanoma cell colonies.

Comparison of measured sleeping metabolic rate and predicted basal metabolic rate during the first year of life : evidence of a bias changing with increasing metabolic rate

Objective: To compare measurements of sleeping metabolic rate (SMR) in infancy with predicted basal metabolic rate (BMR) estimated by the equations of Schofield. Methods: Some 104 serial measurements of SMR by indirect calorimetry were performed in 43 healthy infants at 1.5, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of age. Predicted BMR was calculated using the weight only (BMR-wo) and weight and height (BMR-wh) equations of Schofield for 0-3-y-olds. Measured SMR values were compared with both predictive values by means of the Bland-Altman statistical test. Results: The mean measured SMR was 1.48 MJ/day. The mean predicted BMR values were 1.66 and 1.47 MJ/day for the weight only and weight and height equations, respectively. The Bland-Altman analysis showed that BMR-wo equation on average overestimated SMR by 0.18 MJ/day (11%) and the BMR-wh equation underestimated SMR by 0.01 MJ/day (1%). However the 95% limits of agreement were wide: -0.64 to + 0.28 MJ/day (28%) for the former equation and -0.39 to + 0.41 MJ/day (27%) for the latter equation. Moreover there was a significant correlation between the mean of the measured and predicted metabolic rate and the difference between them. Conclusions: The wide variation seen in the difference between measured and predicted metabolic rate and the bias probably with age indicates there is a need to measure actual metabolic rate for individual clinical care in this age group.

The bias and assumptions in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Education Action Plan

This presentation argues that “genuine” engagement and consultation is required where Indigenous voice is included within the policy development process for “true” progress to be achieved. With the ever increasing engagement of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the decision making processes of Indigenous education, it is anticipated that there will be provision of opportunities for better outcomes and a greater acceptance of the policy within community (Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, 2014). This presentation is derived from a larger project where the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Education Action Plan (MCEECDYA, 2011) was critically analysed using Fairclough’s (2001) Critical Discourse Analysis framework and Rigney’s (1999) Indigenist Research Principles. Within this study, the underlying assumptions and bias identified within the policy and how it positions Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people were articulated. The major findings that emerged from the data included: - a) the homogenous grouping of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people; - b) the maintenance of the prevalent dominant ideology within policy, and finally; - c) the expectation by the power elite of increased engagement and connections by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples without consideration of the detrimental effects of past policies and reforms.

Director independence or decision bias? An investigation of alternative sources of agency costs in board decision making

Research into boards traditionally focuses on independent monitoring of management, with studies focused on the effect of board independence on firm performance. This thesis aims to broaden the research tradition by consolidating prior research and investigating how agents may circumvent independent monitoring. Meta-analysis of previous board independence-firm performance studies indicated no systematic relationship between board independence and firm performance. Next, a series of experiments demonstrated that the presentation of recommendations to directors may bias decision making irrespective of other information presented and the independence of the decision maker. Together, results suggest that independence may be less important than the agent's motivation to misdirect the monitoring process.

The electronic origin of contrast reversal in bias-dependent STM images of nanolines

Self-organized Bi lines that are only 1.5 nm wide can be grown without kinks or breaks on Si(0 0 1) surfaces to lengths of up to 500 nm. Constant-current topographical images of the lines, obtained with the scanning tunneling microscope, have a striking bias dependence. Although the lines appear darker than the Si terraces at biases below ≈∣1.2∣ V, the contrast reverses at biases above ≈∣1.5∣ V. Between these two ranges the lines and terraces are of comparable brightness. It has been suggested that this bias dependence may be due to the presence of a semiconductor-like energy gap within the line. Using ab initio calculations it is demonstrated that the energy gap is too small to explain the experimentally observed bias dependence. Consequently, at this time, there is no compelling explanation for this phenomenon. An alternative explanation is proposed that arises naturally from calculations of the tunneling current, using the Tersoff–Hamann approximation, and an examination of the electronic structure of the line.

Zero-bias conductance and energy gap measurements in LaNiO3-YBa2Cu3O7-x junctions

Conductance measurements of junctions between a high- superconductor and a metallic oxide have been carried out along the a-b plane to examine the tunnel-junction spectra. For these measurements, in situ films have been grown on c-axis oriented thin films using the pulsed laser deposition technique. Two distinctive energy gaps have been observed along with conductance peaks around zero bias. The analysis of zero-bias conductance and energy gap data suggests the presence of midgap states located at the centre of a finite energy gap. The results obtained are also in accordance with the d-wave nature of high- superconductors.

Uniformity in Bias Tilt for Nematics Oriented by Polyvinyl Alcohol Surface Layers

Uniformity in bias tilt, for the polyvinyl alcohol(PVA)surface layer induced orientation of nematic liquid crystals, could be achieved for large area display panels, if one of the transparent electrodes is first directionally rubbed with fine abrasive; then both the electrodes coated with PVA, followed by directionally buffing the chemisorbed layers in the same direction. Uniformity may be due to increased 'train' configuration of the adsorbed macromolecule by falling on to microgrooves and maintaining the same sense of asymmetry for the looped segments.

Load estimation with uncertainties from opportunistic sampling data: A semiparametric approach

We consider estimating the total load from frequent flow data but less frequent concentration data. There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates that minimizes the biases and makes use of informative predictive variables. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized rating-curve approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, such as the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and the discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. Forming this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach for two rivers delivering to the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia. One is a data set from the Burdekin River, and consists of the total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) and gauged flow for 1997. The other dataset is from the Tully River, for the period of July 2000 to June 2008. For NO(x) Burdekin, the new estimates are very similar to the ratio estimates even when there is no relationship between the concentration and the flow. However, for the Tully dataset, by incorporating the additional predictive variables namely the discounted flow and flow phases (rising or recessing), we substantially improved the model fit, and thus the certainty with which the load is estimated.

An extended regression approach to estimating loads and their uncertainties in Great Barrier Reef catchments

There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates by minimizing the biases and making use of possible predictive variables. The load estimation procedure can be summarized by the following four steps: - (i) output the flow rates at regular time intervals (e.g. 10 minutes) using a time series model that captures all the peak flows; - (ii) output the predicted flow rates as in (i) at the concentration sampling times, if the corresponding flow rates are not collected; - (iii) establish a predictive model for the concentration data, which incorporates all possible predictor variables and output the predicted concentrations at the regular time intervals as in (i), and; - (iv) obtain the sum of all the products of the predicted flow and the predicted concentration over the regular time intervals to represent an estimate of the load. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized regression (rating-curve) approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, namely the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and cumulative discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. The model also has the capacity to accommodate autocorrelation in model errors which are the result of intensive sampling during floods. Incorporating this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach using the concentrations of total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) and gauged flow data from the Burdekin River, a catchment delivering to the Great Barrier Reef. The sampling biases for NOx concentrations range from 2 to 10 times indicating severe biases. As we expect, the traditional average and extrapolation methods produce much higher estimates than those when bias in sampling is taken into account.

Robust estimating functions and bias correction for longitudinal data analysis

Robust methods are useful in making reliable statistical inferences when there are small deviations from the model assumptions. The widely used method of the generalized estimating equations can be "robustified" by replacing the standardized residuals with the M-residuals. If the Pearson residuals are assumed to be unbiased from zero, parameter estimators from the robust approach are asymptotically biased when error distributions are not symmetric. We propose a distribution-free method for correcting this bias. Our extensive numerical studies show that the proposed method can reduce the bias substantially. Examples are given for illustration.

Reducing age bias and turnover intentions by enhancing intergenerational contact quality in the workplace: The role of opportunities for generativity and development

Based on socio-emotional selectivity and self-categorization theories, we developed and tested a model on how the interplay between employee age and opportunities for generativity and development predicts age bias and turnover intentions via intergenerational contact quality in the workplace. We hypothesized indirect effects of opportunities for generativity on outcomes through intergenerational contact quality among older workers only, whereas we expected that the indirect effects of opportunities for development are stronger for young compared with older workers. Data came from 321 employees in Belgium who responded to an online questionnaire. Results showed that age moderated the relationships of opportunities for generativity and development with intergenerational contact quality consistent with the expected patterns. Furthermore, age moderated the indirect effects of opportunities for generativity and development on age bias through intergenerational contact quality, but not on turnover intentions. Implications for future research and practical suggestions for managing intergenerational contact at work are discussed.

Uncoupled surface spin induced exchange bias in α-MnO 2 nanowires

We have studied the microstructure, surface states, valence fluctuations, magnetic properties, and exchange bias effect in MnO2 nanowires. High purity α-MnO 2 rectangular nanowires were synthesized by a facile hydrothermal method with microwave-assisted procedures. The microstructure analysis indicates that the nanowires grow in the [0 0 1] direction with the (2 1 0) plane as the surface. Mn3+ and Mn2+ ions are not found in the system by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The effective magnetic moment of the manganese ions fits in with the theoretical and experimental values of Mn4+ very well. The uncoupled spins in 3d3 orbitals of the Mn 4+ ions in MnO 6 octahedra on the rough surface are responsible for the net magnetic moment. Spin glass behavior is observed through magnetic measurements. Furthermore, the exchange bias effect is observed for the first time in pure α-MnO2 phase due to the coupling of the surface spin glass with the antiferromagnetic α-MnO2 matrix. These α-MnO2 nanowires, with a spin-glass-like behavior and with an exchange bias effect excited by the uncoupled surface spins, should therefore inspire further study concerning the origin, theory, and applicability of surface structure induced magnetism in nanostructures.

Charge transport in a Tomonaga-Luttinger liquid: Effects of pumping and bias

We study the current produced in a Tomonaga-Luttinger liquid by an applied bias and by weak, pointlike impurity potentials which are oscillating in time. We use bosonization to perturbatively calculate the current up to second order in the impurity potentials. In the regime of small bias and low pumping frequency, both the dc and ac components of the current have power-law dependences on the bias and pumping frequencies with an exponent 2K-1 for spinless electrons, where K is the interaction parameter. For K < 1/2, the current grows large for special values of the bias. For noninteracting electrons with K=1, our results agree with those obtained using Floquet scattering theory for Dirac fermions. We also discuss the cases of extended impurities and of spin-1/2 electrons.

The pulling power of chocolate: Effects of approach-avoidance training on approach bias and consumption

Previous research has shown that action tendencies to approach alcohol may be modified using computerized ApproacheAvoidance Task (AAT), and that this impacted on subsequent consumption. A recent paper in this journal (Becker, Jostman, Wiers, & Holland, 2015) failed to show significant training effects for food in three studies: Nor did it find effects on subsequent consumption. However, avoidance training to high calorie foods was tested against a control rather than Approach training. The present study used a more comparable paradigm to the alcohol studies. It randomly assigned 90 participants to ‘approach’ or ‘avoid’ chocolate images on the AAT, and then asked them to taste and rate chocolates. A significant interaction of condition and time showed that training to avoid chocolate resulted in faster avoidance responses to chocolate images, compared with training to approach it. Consistent with Becker et al.'s Study 3, no effect was found on amounts of chocolate consumed, although a newly published study in this journal (Schumacher, Kemps, & Tiggemann, 2016) did do so. The collective evidence does not as yet provide solid basis for the application of AAT training to reduction of problematic food consumption, although clinical trials have yet to be conducted.