929 resultados para Based structure model


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Scientists predict that global agricultural lands will expand over the next few decades due to increasing demands for food production and an exponential increase in crop-based biofuel production. These changes in land use will greatly impact biogeochemical and biogeophysical cycles across the globe. It is therefore important to develop models that can accurately simulate the interactions between the atmosphere and important crops. In this study, we develop and validate a new process-based sugarcane model (included as a module within the Agro-IBIS dynamic agro-ecosystem model) which can be applied at multiple spatial scales. At site level, the model systematically under/overestimated the daily sensible/latent heat flux (by -10.5% and 14.8%, H and E, respectively) when compared against the micrometeorological observations from southeast Brazil. The model underestimated ET (relative bias between -10.1% and 12.5%) when compared against an agro-meteorological field experiment from northeast Australia. At the regional level, the model accurately simulated average yield for the four largest mesoregions (clusters of municipalities) in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, over a period of 16 years, with a yield relative bias of -0.68% to 1.08%. Finally, the simulated annual average sugarcane yield over 31 years for the state of Louisiana (US) had a low relative bias (-2.67%), but exhibited a lower interannual variability than the observed yields.

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Context. Be stars are rapidly rotating stars with a circumstellar decretion disk. They usually undergo pressure and/or gravity pulsation modes excited by the kappa-mechanism, i.e. an effect of the opacity of iron-peak elements in the envelope of the star. In the Milky Way, p-modes are observed in stars that are hotter than or equal to the B3 spectral type, while g-modes are observed at the B2 spectral type and cooler. Aims. We observed a B0IVe star, HD51452, with the high-precision, high-cadence photometric CoRoT satellite and high-resolution, ground-based HARPS and SOPHIE spectrographs to study its pulsations in great detail. We also used the lower resolution spectra available in the BeSS database. Methods. We analyzed the CoRoT and spectroscopic data with several methods: CLEAN-NG, FREQFIND, and a sliding window method. We also analyzed spectral quantities, such as the violet over red (V/R) emission variations, to obtain information about the variation in the circumstellar environment. We calculated a stellar structure model with the ESTER code to test the various interpretation of the results. Results. We detect 189 frequencies of variations in the CoRoT light curve in the range between 0 and 4.5 c d(-1). The main frequencies are also recovered in the spectroscopic data. In particular we find that HD51452 undergoes gravito-inertial modes that are not in the domain of those excited by the kappa-mechanism. We propose that these are stochastic modes excited in the convective zones and that at least some of them are a multiplet of r-modes (i.e. subinertial modes mainly driven by the Coriolis acceleration). Stochastically excited gravito-inertial modes had never been observed in any star, and theory predicted that their very low amplitudes would be undetectable even with CoRoT. We suggest that the amplitudes are enhanced in HD51452 because of the very rapid stellar rotation. In addition, we find that the amplitude variations of these modes are related to the occurrence of minor outbursts. Conclusions. Thanks to CoRoT data, we have detected a new kind of pulsations in HD51452, which are stochastically excited gravito-inertial modes, probably due to its very rapid rotation. These modes are probably also present in other rapidly rotating hot Be stars.

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Context. Be stars are rapidly rotating stars with a circumstellar decretion disk. They usually undergo pressure and/or gravity pulsation modes excited by the κ-mechanism, i.e. an effect of the opacity of iron-peak elements in the envelope of the star. In the Milky Way, p-modes are observed in stars that are hotter than or equal to the B3 spectral type, while g-modes are observed at the B2 spectral type and cooler. Aims. We observed a B0IVe star, HD51452, with the high-precision, high-cadence photometric CoRoT satellite and high-resolution, ground-based HARPS and SOPHIE spectrographs to study its pulsations in great detail. We also used the lower resolution spectra available in the BeSS database. Methods. We analyzed the CoRoT and spectroscopic data with several methods: Clean-NG, FreqFind, and a sliding window method. We also analyzed spectral quantities, such as the violet over red (V/R) emission variations, to obtain information about the variation in the circumstellar environment. We calculated a stellar structure model with the ESTER code to test the various interpretation of the results. Results. We detect 189 frequencies of variations in the CoRoT light curve in the range between 0 and 4.5 c d−1. The main frequencies are also recovered in the spectroscopic data. In particular we find that HD51452 undergoes gravito-inertial modes that are not in the domain of those excited by the κ-mechanism. We propose that these are stochastic modes excited in the convective zones and that at least some of them are a multiplet of r-modes (i.e. subinertial modes mainly driven by the Coriolis acceleration). Stochastically excited gravito-inertial modes had never been observed in any star, and theory predicted that their very low amplitudes would be undetectable even with CoRoT. We suggest that the amplitudes are enhanced in HD51452 because of the very rapid stellar rotation. In addition, we find that the amplitude variations of these modes are related to the occurrence of minor outbursts. Conclusions. Thanks to CoRoT data, we have detected a new kind of pulsations in HD51452, which are stochastically excited gravito-inertial modes, probably due to its very rapid rotation. These modes are probably also present in other rapidly rotating hot Be stars.

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[EN]A new one-dimensional model of DMSP/DMS dynamics (DMOS) is developed and applied to the Sargasso Sea in order to explain what drives the observed dimethylsulfide (DMS) summer paradox: a summer DMS concentration maximum concurrent with a minimum in the biomass of phytoplankton, the producers of the DMS precursor dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP). Several mechanisms have been postulated to explain this mismatch: a succession in phytoplankton species composition towards higher relative abundances of DMSP producers in summer; inhibition of bacterial DMS consumption by ultraviolet radiation (UVR); and direct DMS production by phytoplankton due to UVR-induced oxidative stress. None of these hypothetical mechanisms, except for the first one, has been tested with a dynamic model. We have coupled a new sulfur cycle model that incorporates the latest knowledge on DMSP/DMS dynamics to a preexisting nitrogen/carbon-based ecological model that explicitly simulates the microbial-loop. This allows the role of bacteria in DMS production and consumption to be represented and quantified. The main improvements of DMOS with respect to previous DMSP/DMS models are the explicit inclusion of: solar-radiation inhibition of bacterial sulfur uptakes; DMS exudation by phytoplankton caused by solar-radiation-induced stress; and uptake of dissolved DMSP by phytoplankton. We have conducted a series of modeling experiments where some of the DMOS sulfur paths are turned “off” or “on,” and the results on chlorophyll-a, bacteria, DMS, and DMSP (particulate and dissolved) concentrations have been compared with climatological data of these same variables. The simulated rate of sulfur cycling processes are also compared with the scarce data available from previous works. All processes seem to play a role in driving DMS seasonality. Among them, however, solar-radiation-induced DMS exudation by phytoplankton stands out as the process without which the model is unable to produce realistic DMS simulations and reproduce the DMS summer paradox.

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A numerical study using Large Eddy Simulation Coherent Structure Model (LES-CSM), of the flow around a simplified Ahmed body, has been done in this work of thesis. The models used are two salient geometries from the experimental investigation performed in [1], and consist, in particular, in two notch-back body geometries. Six simulation are carried out in total, changing Reynolds number and back-light angle of the model’s rear part. The Reynolds numbers used, based on the height of the models and the free stream velocity, are Re = 10000, Re = 30000 and Re = 50000. The back-light angles of the slanted surface with respect to the horizontal roof surface, that characterizes the vehicle, are taken as B = 31.8◦ and B = 42◦ respectively. The experimental results in [1] have shown that, depending on the parameter B, asymmetric and symmetric averaged flow over the back-light and in the wake for a symmetric geometry can be observed. The aims of the present work of master thesis are principally two. The first aim is to investigate and confirm the influence of the parameter B on the presence of the asymmetry of the averaged flow, and confirm the features described in the experimental results. The second important aspect is to investigate and observe the influence of the second variable, the Reynolds number, in the developing of the asymmetric flow itself. The results have shown the presence of the mentioned asymmetry as well as an influence of the Reynolds number on it.

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Finite element techniques for solving the problem of fluid-structure interaction of an elastic solid material in a laminar incompressible viscous flow are described. The mathematical problem consists of the Navier-Stokes equations in the Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian formulation coupled with a non-linear structure model, considering the problem as one continuum. The coupling between the structure and the fluid is enforced inside a monolithic framework which computes simultaneously for the fluid and the structure unknowns within a unique solver. We used the well-known Crouzeix-Raviart finite element pair for discretization in space and the method of lines for discretization in time. A stability result using the Backward-Euler time-stepping scheme for both fluid and solid part and the finite element method for the space discretization has been proved. The resulting linear system has been solved by multilevel domain decomposition techniques. Our strategy is to solve several local subproblems over subdomain patches using the Schur-complement or GMRES smoother within a multigrid iterative solver. For validation and evaluation of the accuracy of the proposed methodology, we present corresponding results for a set of two FSI benchmark configurations which describe the self-induced elastic deformation of a beam attached to a cylinder in a laminar channel flow, allowing stationary as well as periodically oscillating deformations, and for a benchmark proposed by COMSOL multiphysics where a narrow vertical structure attached to the bottom wall of a channel bends under the force due to both viscous drag and pressure. Then, as an example of fluid-structure interaction in biomedical problems, we considered the academic numerical test which consists in simulating the pressure wave propagation through a straight compliant vessel. All the tests show the applicability and the numerical efficiency of our approach to both two-dimensional and three-dimensional problems.

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In Hinsicht darauf, dass sich S. cerevisiae-Stämme im Laufe der Domestizierung und Anpassung an verschiedene Habitate genetisch verändert haben, wurde in dieser Arbeit eine repräsentative Auswahl von Labor-, kommerziellen und in der Natur vorkommenden Saccharomyces-Stämmen und ihren Interspezies-Hybriden auf die Verbreitung alleler Varianten der Hexokinase-Gene HXK1 und HXK2 getestet. Von den Hexose-Transportern stand Hxt3p im Mittelpunkt, da seine essentielle Rolle bei der Vergärung von Glucose und Fructose bereits belegt wurde.rnIn dieser Arbeit wurde gezeigt, dass es bedeutende Unterschiede in der Vergärung von Glucose und Fructose zwischen Weinhefen der Gattung Saccharomyces gibt, die z.T. mit Struktur-Varianten des Hexose-Transporter Hxt3p korrelieren. rnInsgesamt 51 Hefestämme wurden auf ihre allele Variante des HXT3-Gens untersucht. Dabei haben sich drei Hauptgruppen (die Fermichamp®-Typ Gruppe, Bierhefen und Hybrid-Stämme) mit unterschiedlichem HXT3-Allel ergeben. Im Zusammenhang mit der Weinherstellung wurden signifikante Nukleotid-Substitutionen innerhalb des HXT3-Gens der robusten S. cerevisiae-Stämme (wie z.B. Sekthefen, kommerzielle Starterkulturen) und Hybrid-Stämmen festgestellt. Diese Hefen zeichneten sich durch die Fähigkeit aus, den Most trotz stressigen Umwelt-Bedingungen (wie hohe Ethanol-Konzentration, reduzierter Ammonium-Gehalt, ungünstiges Glucose:Fructose-Verhältnis) zu vergären. rnDie Experimente deuten darauf hin, dass die HXT3-Allel-Variante des als Starterkultur verwendbaren Stammes Fermichamp®, für den verstärkten Fructose-Abbau verantwortlich ist. Ein gleiches Verhalten der Stämme mit dieser Allel-Variante wurde ebenfalls beobachtet. Getestet wurden die S. cerevisiae-Stämme Fermichamp® und 54.41, die bezüglich Hxt3p-Aminosäuresequenz gleich sind, gegenüber zwei S. cerevisiae-Stämmen mit dem HXT3-Standard-Alleltyp Fermivin® und 33. Der Unterschied in der Hexose-Verwertung zwischen Stämmen mit Fermichamp®- und Standard-Alleltyp war in der Mitte des Gärverlaufs am deutlichsten zu beobachten. Beide Gruppen, sowohl mit HXT3 Fermichamp®- als auch Fermivin®-Alleltyp vergoren die Glucose schneller als die Fructose. Der Unterschied aber zwischen diesen HXT3-Alleltypen bei der Zucker-Verwertung lag darin, dass der Fermichamp®-Typ eine kleinere Differenz in der Abbau-Geschwindigkeit der beiden Hexosen zeigte als der Fermivin®-Typ. Die Zuckeraufnahme-Messungen haben die relativ gute Fructose-Aufnahme dieser Stämme bestätigt.rnEbenfalls korrelierte der fructophile Charakter des Triple-Hybrides S. cerevisiae x S. kudriavzevii x S. bayanus-Stamm HL78 in Transportexperimenten mit verstärkter Aufnahme von Fructose im Vergleich zu Glucose. Insgesamt zeigte dieser Stamm ähnliches Verhalten wie die S. cerevisiae-Stämme Fermichamp® und 54.41. rnIn dieser Arbeit wurde ein Struktur-Modell des Hexose-Transporters Hxt3p erstellt. Als Basis diente die zu 30 % homologe Struktur des Proton/Xylose-Symporters XylE aus Escherichia coli. Anhand des Hxt3p-Modells konnten Sequenzbereiche mit hoher Variabilität (Hotspots) in drei Hxt3p-Isoformen der Hauptgruppen (die Fermichamp®-Typ Gruppe, Bierhefen und Hybrid-Stämme) detektiert werden. Diese signifikanten Aminosäure-Substitutionen, die eine mögliche Veränderung der physikalischen und chemischen Eigenschaften des Carriers mit sich bringen, konzentrieren sich auf drei Bereiche. Dazu gehören die Region zwischen den N- und C-terminalen Domänen, die cytosolische Domäne und der Outside-Loop zwischen Transmembranregion 9 und Transmembranregion 10. rnObwohl die Transportmessungen keinen Zusammenhang zwischen Stämmen mit unterschiedlichen HXT3-Allelen und ihrer Toleranz gegenüber Ethanol ergaben, wurde ein signifikanter Anstieg in der Zuckeraufnahme nach vorheriger 24-stündiger Inkubation mit 4 Vol% Ethanol bei den Teststämmen beobachtet. rnInsgesamt könnten allele Varianten von HXT3-Gen ein nützliches Kriterium bei der Suche nach robusten Hefen für die Weinherstellung oder für andere industrielle Anwendungen sein. Die Auswirkung dieser Modifikationen auf die Struktur und Effizienz des Hexose-Transporters, sowie der mögliche Zusammenhang mit Ethanol-Resistenz müssen weiter ausführlich untersucht werden. rnEin Zusammenhang zwischen den niedrig variablen Allel-Varianten der Hexokinase-Gene HXK1 und HXK2 und dem Zucker-Metabolismus wurde nicht gefunden. Die Hexokinasen der untersuchten Stämme wiesen allerdings generell eine signifikante geringere Affinität zu Fructose im Vergleich zu Glucose auf. Hier liegt sicherlich eine Hauptursache für den Anstieg des Fructose:Glucose-Verhältnisses im Laufe der Vergärung von Traubenmosten.rn

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Cold-formed steel (CFS) combined with wood sheathing, such as oriented strand board (OSB), forms shear walls that can provide lateral resistance to seismic forces. The ability to accurately predict building deformations in damaged states under seismic excitations is a must for modern performance-based seismic design. However, few static or dynamic tests have been conducted on the non-linear behavior of CFS shear walls. Thus, the purpose of this research work is to provide and demonstrate a fastener-based computational model of CFS wall models that incorporates essential nonlinearities that may eventually lead to improvement of the current seismic design requirements. The approach is based on the understanding that complex interaction of the fasteners with the sheathing is an important factor in the non-linear behavior of the shear wall. The computational model consists of beam-column elements for the CFS framing and a rigid diaphragm for the sheathing. The framing and sheathing are connected with non-linear zero-length fastener elements to capture the OSB sheathing damage surrounding the fastener area. Employing computational programs such as OpenSees and MATLAB, 4 ft. x 9 ft., 8 ft. x 9 ft. and 12 ft. x 9 ft. shear wall models are created, and monotonic lateral forces are applied to the computer models. The output data are then compared and analyzed with the available results of physical testing. The results indicate that the OpenSees model can accurately capture the initial stiffness, strength and non-linear behavior of the shear walls.

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Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

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Tax planners often choose debt over equity financing. As this has led to increased corporate debt financing, many countries have introduced thin capitalization rules to secure their tax revenues. In a general capital structure model we analyze if thin capitalization rules affect dividend and financing decisions, and whether they can partially explain why corporations receive both debt and equity capital. We model the Belgian, German and Italian rules as examples. We find that the so-called Miller equilibrium and definite financing effects depend significantly on the underlying tax system. Further, our results are useful for the treasury to decide what thin capitalization type to implement.

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Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks can cause enormous losses in naïve pig populations. How to best minimize the economic damage and number of culled animals caused by CSF is therefore an important research area. The baseline CSF control strategy in the European Union and Switzerland consists of culling all animals in infected herds, movement restrictions for animals, material and people within a given distance to the infected herd and epidemiological tracing of transmission contacts. Additional disease control measures such as pre-emptive culling or vaccination have been recommended based on the results from several simulation models; however, these models were parameterized for areas with high animal densities. The objective of this study was to explore whether pre-emptive culling and emergency vaccination should also be recommended in low- to moderate-density areas such as Switzerland. Additionally, we studied the influence of initial outbreak conditions on outbreak severity to improve the efficiency of disease prevention and surveillance. A spatial, stochastic, individual-animal-based simulation model using all registered Swiss pig premises in 2009 (n=9770) was implemented to quantify these relationships. The model simulates within-herd and between-herd transmission (direct and indirect contacts and local area spread). By varying the four parameters (a) control measures, (b) index herd type (breeding, fattening, weaning or mixed herd), (c) detection delay for secondary cases during an outbreak and (d) contact tracing probability, 112 distinct scenarios were simulated. To assess the impact of scenarios on outbreak severity, daily transmission rates were compared between scenarios. Compared with the baseline strategy (stamping out and movement restrictions) vaccination and pre-emptive culling neither reduced outbreak size nor duration. Outbreaks starting in a herd with weaning piglets or fattening pigs caused higher losses regarding to the number of culled premises and were longer lasting than those starting in the two other index herd types. Similarly, larger transmission rates were estimated for these index herd type outbreaks. A longer detection delay resulted in more culled premises and longer duration and better transmission tracing increased the number of short outbreaks. Based on the simulation results, baseline control strategies seem sufficient to control CSF in low-medium animal-dense areas. Early detection of outbreaks is crucial and risk-based surveillance should be focused on weaning piglet and fattening pig premises.

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We develop statistical procedures for estimating shape and orientation of arbitrary three-dimensional particles. We focus on the case where particles cannot be observed directly, but only via sections. Volume tensors are used for describing particle shape and orientation, and we derive stereological estimators of the tensors. These estimators are combined to provide consistent estimators of the moments of the so-called particle cover density. The covariance structure associated with the particle cover density depends on the orientation and shape of the particles. For instance, if the distribution of the typical particle is invariant under rotations, then the covariance matrix is proportional to the identity matrix. We develop a non-parametric test for such isotropy. A flexible Lévy-based particle model is proposed, which may be analysed using a generalized method of moments in which the volume tensors enter. The developed methods are used to study the cell organization in the human brain cortex.

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Net primary production (NPP) is commonly modeled as a function of chlorophyll concentration (Chl), even though it has been long recognized that variability in intracellular chlorophyll content from light acclimation and nutrient stress confounds the relationship between Chl and phytoplankton biomass. It was suggested previously that satellite estimates of backscattering can be related to phytoplankton carbon biomass (C) under conditions of a conserved particle size distribution or a relatively stable relationship between C and total particulate organic carbon. Together, C and Chl can be used to describe physiological state (through variations in Chl:C ratios) and NPP. Here, we fully develop the carbon-based productivity model (CbPM) to include information on the subsurface light field and nitracline depths to parameterize photoacclimation and nutrient stress throughout the water column. This depth-resolved approach produces profiles of biological properties (Chl, C, NPP) that are broadly consistent with observations. The CbPM is validated using regional in situ data sets of irradiance-derived products, phytoplankton chlorophyll: carbon ratios, and measured NPP rates. CbPM-based distributions of global NPP are significantly different in both space and time from previous Chl-based estimates because of the distinction between biomass and physiological influences on global Chl fields. The new model yields annual, areally integrated water column production of similar to 52 Pg C a(-1) for the global oceans.

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Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been ranked as the top cause of death due to neoplasm malignancy in Taiwan for years. The high incidence of HCC in Taiwan is primarily attributed to high prevalence of hepatitis viral infection. Screening the subjects with liver cirrhosis for HCC was widely recommended by many previous studies. The latest practice guideline for management of HCC released by the American Association for the Study of Liver Disease (AASLD) in 2005 recommended that the high risk groups, including cirrhotic patients, chronic HBV/HCV carriers, and subjects with family history of HCC and etc., should undergo surveillance.^ This study aims to investigate (1) whether the HCC screening program can prolong survival period of the high risk group, (2) what is the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the HCC screening program in Taiwan, as compared with a non-screening strategy from the payer perspective, (3) which high risk group has the lowest ICER for the HCC screening program from the insurer's perspective, in comparison with no screening strategy of each group, and (4) the estimated total cost of providing the HCC screening program to all high risk groups.^ The high risk subjects in the study were identified from the communities with high prevalence of hepatitis viral infection and classified into three groups (cirrhosis group, early cirrhosis group, and no cirrhosis group) at different levels of risk to HCC by status of liver disease at the time of enrollment. The repeated ultrasound screenings at an interval of 3, 6, and 12 months were applied to cirrhosis group, early cirrhosis group, and no cirrhosis group, respectively. The Markov-based decision model was constructed to simulate progression of HCC and to estimate the ICER for each group of subjects.^ The screening group had longer survival in the statistical results and the model outcomes. Owing to the low HCC incidence rate in the community-based screening program, screening services only have limited effect on survival of the screening group. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the HCC screening program was $3834 per year of life saved, in comparison with the non-screening strategy. The estimated total cost of each group from the screening model over 13.5 years approximately consumes 0.13%, 1.06%, and 0.71% of total amount of adjusted National Health Expenditure from Jan 1992 to Jun 2005. ^ The subjects at high risk of developing HCC to undergo repeated ultrasound screenings had longer survival than those without screening, but screening was not the only factor to cause longer survival in the screening group. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the 2-stage community-based HCC screening program in Taiwan was small. The HCC screening program was worthy of investment in Taiwan. In comparison with early cirrhosis group and no cirrhosis group, cirrhosis group has the lowest ICER when the screening period is less than 19 years. The estimated total cost of providing the HCC screening program to all high risk groups consumes approximately 1.90% of total amount of adjusted 13.5-year NHE in Taiwan.^

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The need for timely population data for health planning and Indicators of need has Increased the demand for population estimates. The data required to produce estimates is difficult to obtain and the process is time consuming. Estimation methods that require less effort and fewer data are needed. The structure preserving estimator (SPREE) is a promising technique not previously used to estimate county population characteristics. This study first uses traditional regression estimation techniques to produce estimates of county population totals. Then the structure preserving estimator, using the results produced in the first phase as constraints, is evaluated.^ Regression methods are among the most frequently used demographic methods for estimating populations. These methods use symptomatic indicators to predict population change. This research evaluates three regression methods to determine which will produce the best estimates based on the 1970 to 1980 indicators of population change. Strategies for stratifying data to improve the ability of the methods to predict change were tested. Difference-correlation using PMSA strata produced the equation which fit the data the best. Regression diagnostics were used to evaluate the residuals.^ The second phase of this study is to evaluate use of the structure preserving estimator in making estimates of population characteristics. The SPREE estimation approach uses existing data (the association structure) to establish the relationship between the variable of interest and the associated variable(s) at the county level. Marginals at the state level (the allocation structure) supply the current relationship between the variables. The full allocation structure model uses current estimates of county population totals to limit the magnitude of county estimates. The limited full allocation structure model has no constraints on county size. The 1970 county census age - gender population provides the association structure, the allocation structure is the 1980 state age - gender distribution.^ The full allocation model produces good estimates of the 1980 county age - gender populations. An unanticipated finding of this research is that the limited full allocation model produces estimates of county population totals that are superior to those produced by the regression methods. The full allocation model is used to produce estimates of 1986 county population characteristics. ^