Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of socio-ecologic drivers of Ross River Virus transmission in Queensland, Australia

This study aims to examine the impact of socio-ecologic factors on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) infection and to identify areas prone to social and ecologic-driven epidemics in Queensland, Australia. We used a Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive model to quantify the relationship between monthly variation of RRV incidence and socio-ecologic factors and to determine spatiotemporal patterns. Our results show that the average increase in monthly RRV incidence was 2.4% (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.1–4.5%) and 2.0% (95% CrI: 1.6–2.3%) for a 1°C increase in monthly average maximum temperature and a 10 mm increase in monthly average rainfall, respectively. A significant spatiotemporal variation and interactive effect between temperature and rainfall on RRV incidence were found. No association between Socio-economic Index for Areas (SEIFA) and RRV was observed. The transmission of RRV in Queensland, Australia appeared to be primarily driven by ecologic variables rather than social factors.

Seed Transmission of Broad Bean Stain Virus in the Wild Legume Vicia Palestina Boiss

Abstract Seed-transmissibility of brood bean stain virus (BBSV) was investigated in a number of wild legume species. Genninating axes of seeds coliected from BBSV -infected plants were tested by the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The virus was found to be seedtransmitted in Vida pal«stina.

Whitefly Transmission and Efficient ssDNA Accumulation of Bean Golden Mosaic Geminivirus Require Functional Coat Protein

Bean golden mosaic geminivirus (BGMV) has a bipartite genome composed of two circular ssDNA components (DNA-A and DNA-B) and is transmitted by the whitefly, Bemisia tabaci. DNA-A encodes the viral replication proteins and the coat protein. To determine the role of BGMV coat protein systemic infection and whitefly transmission, two deletions and a restriction fragment inversion were introduced into the BGMV coat protein gene. All three coat protein mutants produced systemic infections when coinoculated with DNA-B onto Phaseolus vulgaris using electric discharge particle acceleration "particle gun." However, they were not sap transmissible and coat protein was not detected in mutant-infected plants. In addition, none of the mutants were transmitted by whiteflies. With all three mutants, ssDNA accumulation of DNA-A and DNA-B was reduced 25- to 50-fold and 3- to 10-fold, respectively, as compared to that of wild-type DNA. No effect on dsDNA-A accumulation was detected and there was 2- to 5-fold increase in dsDNA-B accumulation. Recombinants between the mutated DNA-A and DNA-B forms were identified when the inoculated coat protein mutant was linearized in the common region.

Climate variability and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome transmission in northeastern China

Background: The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by climatic variables. However, few studies have examined the quantitative relationship between climate variation and HFRS transmission. ---------- Objective: We examined the potential impact of climate variability on HFRS transmission and developed climate-based forecasting models for HFRS in northeastern China. ---------- Methods: We obtained data on monthly counts of reported HFRS cases in Elunchun and Molidawahaner counties for 1997–2007 from the Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention and climate data from the Chinese Bureau of Meteorology. Cross-correlations assessed crude associations between climate variables, including rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), relative humidity (RH), and the multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI) and monthly HFRS cases over a range of lags. We used time-series Poisson regression models to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables to HFRS transmission. ----------- Results: Cross-correlation analyses showed that rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI were significantly associated with monthly HFRS cases with lags of 3–5 months in both study areas. The results of Poisson regression indicated that after controlling for the autocorrelation, seasonality, and long-term trend, rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI with lags of 3–5 months were associated with HFRS in both study areas. The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS. ---------- Conclusions: Climate variability plays a significant role in HFRS transmission in northeastern China. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.

Use of IEEE 1588-2008 for a sampled value process bus in transmission substations

IEC Technical Committee 57 (TC57) published a series of standards and technical reports for “Communication networks and systems for power utility automation” as the IEC 61850 series. Sampled value (SV) process buses allow for the removal of potentially lethal voltages and damaging currents inside substation control rooms and marshalling kiosks, reduce the amount of cabling required in substations, and facilitate the adoption of non-conventional instrument transformers. IEC 61850-9-2 provides an inter-operable solution to support multi-vendor process bus solutions. A time synchronisation system is required for a SV process bus, however the details are not defined in IEC 61850-9-2. IEEE Std 1588-2008, Precision Time Protocol version 2 (PTPv2), provides the greatest accuracy of network based time transfer systems, with timing errors of less than 100 ns achievable. PTPv2 is proposed by the IEC Smart Grid Strategy Group to synchronise IEC 61850 based substation automation systems. IEC 61850-9-2, PTPv2 and Ethernet are three complementary protocols that together define the future of sampled value digital process connections in substations. The suitability of PTPv2 for use with SV is evaluated, with preliminary results indicating that steady state performance is acceptable (jitter < 300 ns), and that extremely stable grandmaster oscillators are required to ensure SV timing requirements are met when recovering from loss of external synchronisation (such as GPS).

Multivariate Markov Process Models for the transmission of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus in a hospital ward

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) is a pathogen that continues to be of major concern in hospitals. We develop models and computational schemes based on observed weekly incidence data to estimate MRSA transmission parameters. We extend the deterministic model of McBryde, Pettitt, and McElwain (2007, Journal of Theoretical Biology 245, 470–481) involving an underlying population of MRSA colonized patients and health-care workers that describes, among other processes, transmission between uncolonized patients and colonized health-care workers and vice versa. We develop new bivariate and trivariate Markov models to include incidence so that estimated transmission rates can be based directly on new colonizations rather than indirectly on prevalence. Imperfect sensitivity of pathogen detection is modeled using a hidden Markov process. The advantages of our approach include (i) a discrete valued assumption for the number of colonized health-care workers, (ii) two transmission parameters can be incorporated into the likelihood, (iii) the likelihood depends on the number of new cases to improve precision of inference, (iv) individual patient records are not required, and (v) the possibility of imperfect detection of colonization is incorporated. We compare our approach with that used by McBryde et al. (2007) based on an approximation that eliminates the health-care workers from the model, uses Markov chain Monte Carlo and individual patient data. We apply these models to MRSA colonization data collected in a small intensive care unit at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane, Australia.

Test and evaluation of non conventional instrument transformers and sampled value process bus on Powerlink's transmission network

IEC 61850 Process Bus technology has the potential to improve cost, performance and reliability of substation design. Substantial costs associated with copper wiring (designing, documentation, construction, commissioning and troubleshooting) can be reduced with the application of digital Process Bus technology, especially those based upon international standards. An IEC 61850-9-2 based sampled value Process Bus is an enabling technology for the application of Non-Conventional Instrument Transformers (NCIT). Retaining the output of the NCIT in its native digital form, rather than conversion to an analogue output, allows for improved transient performance, dynamic range, safety, reliability and reduced cost. In this paper we report on a pilot installation using NCITs communicating across a switched Ethernet network using the UCAIug Implementation Guideline for IEC 61850-9-2 (9-2 Light Edition or 9-2LE). This system was commissioned in a 275 kV Line Reactor bay at Powerlink Queensland’s Braemar substation in 2009, with sampled value protection IEDs 'shadowing' the existing protection system. The results of commissioning tests and twelve months of service experience using a Fibre Optic Current Transformer (FOCT) from Smart Digital Optics (SDO) are presented, including the response of the system to fault conditions. A number of remaining issues to be resolved to enable wide-scale deployment of NCITs and IEC 61850-9-2 Process Bus technology are also discussed.

Towards low emissions in the electricity generation sector : creating a coherent legal model for Australia

Australia’s efforts to transition to a low-emissions economy have stagnated following the successive defeats of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. This failure should not, however, be regarded as the end of Australia’s efforts to make this transition. In fact, the opportunity now exists for Australia to refine its existing arrangements to enable this transition to occur more effectively. The starting point for this analysis is the legal arrangements applying to the electricity generation sector, which is the largest sectoral emitter of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in Australia. Without an effective strategy to mitigate this sector’s contribution to anthropogenic climate change, it is unlikely that Australia will be able to transition towards a low-emissions economy. It is on this basis that this article assesses the dominant national legal arrangement – the Renewable Energy Target – underpinning the electricity generation sector's efforts to become a low-emissions sector.

'Attaching' warning statements by facsimile transmission

Section 366(1) of the Property Agents and Motor Dealers Act 2000 (Qld) (‘PAMD’) provides that a relevant contract must have attached, as its first or top sheet, a statement in the approved form being a warning statement. Failure to comply with this statutory requirement entitles a purchaser to terminate the contract. The meaning to be attributed to the statutory reference to ‘attached’ will clearly be problematic where documentation is sent by way of facsimile transmission. This was the issue that arose for consideration by Newton DCJ in MNM Developments Pty Ltd v Gerrard [2005] QDC 10.

Demand side response to mitigate electrical peak demand in Eastern and Southern Australia

The aim of this work is to develop a Demand-Side-Response (DSR) model, which assists electricity end-users to be engaged in mitigating peak demands on the electricity network in Eastern and Southern Australia. The proposed innovative model will comprise a technical set-up of a programmable internet relay, a router, solid state switches in addition to the suitable software to control electricity demand at user's premises. The software on appropriate multimedia tool (CD Rom) will be curtailing/shifting electric loads to the most appropriate time of the day following the implemented economic model, which is designed to be maximizing financial benefits to electricity consumers. Additionally the model is targeting a national electrical load be spread-out evenly throughout the year in order to satisfy best economic performance for electricity generation, transmission and distribution. The model is applicable in region managed by the Australian Energy Management Operator (AEMO) covering states of Eastern-, Southern-Australia and Tasmania.