Quantification of physical and biological uncertainty in the simulation of the yield of a tropical crop using present-day and doubled CO2 climates

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (lambda, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966-1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of lambda near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

Combining physical, cultural and biological methods: prospects for integrated non-chemical weed management strategies

Physical, cultural and biological methods for weed control have developed largely independently and are often concerned with weed control in different systems: physical and cultural control in annual crops and biocontrol in extensive grasslands. We discuss the strengths and limitations of four physical and cultural methods for weed control: mechanical, thermal, cutting, and intercropping, and the advantages and disadvantages of combining biological control with them. These physical and cultural control methods may increase soil nitrogen levels and alter microclimate at soil level; this may be of benefit to biocontrol agents, although physical disturbance to the soil and plant damage may be detrimental. Some weeds escape control by these methods; we suggest that these weeds may be controlled by biocontrol agents. It will be easiest to combine biological control with. re and cutting in grasslands; within arable systems it would be most promising to combine biological control (especially using seed predators and foliar pathogens) with cover-cropping, and mechanical weeding combined with foliar bacterial and possibly foliar fungal pathogens. We stress the need to consider the timing of application of combined control methods in order to cause least damage to the biocontrol agent, along with maximum damage to the weed and to consider the wider implications of these different weed control methods.

The canonical correlation between the biological markers of performance and physical fitness in high level judo athletes

The objective of this research was to verify the relationship between biological markers of performance of elite judo athletes and performance in different physical fitness tests. Twenty-one judo athletes were involved in the present observational and correlational study. Dermatoglyphic variables and the 2D:4D digit ratio were considered as biological markers, while the physical fitness variables analyzed were body fat, maximal strength, muscular power, the aerobic and anaerobic profile, and performance in specific tests. The statistics involved canonical correlations and a multivariate technique. A high and significant canonical correlation was observed between groups of variables, the first expressed by 1=0.999 (p<0.0001) and the second by 2=0.997 (p<0.001). It appears that, beyond height and body mass, total ridge count, pattern intensity for fingers and 2D:4D had more canonical loading. The physical fitness component of the first canonical variable incorporated, with high intensity were: the sum of skinfold thickness, the bench press onerepetition maximum (1RM), upper and lower body aerobic power. In the second canonical variable, physical fitness was composed of the squat 1RM, suspension time on the bar, the SJFT-index, and mean power during the upper body Wingate test. The data of this investigation showed the interdependence between biological markers of performance and physical fitness in high level judo athletes.

An updated synthesis of the observed and projected impacts of climate change on the chemical, physical and biological processes in the oceans

The 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states with very high certainty that anthropogenic emissions have caused measurable changes in the physical ocean environment. These changes are summarized with special focus on those that are predicted to have the strongest, most direct effects on ocean biological processes; namely, ocean warming and associated phenomena (including stratification and sea level rise) as well as deoxygenation and ocean acidification. The biological effects of these changes are then discussed for microbes (including phytoplankton), plants, animals, warm and cold-water corals, and ecosystems. The IPCC AR5 highlighted several areas related to both the physical and biological processes that required further research. As a rapidly developing field, there have been many pertinent studies published since the cut off dates for the AR5, which have increased our understanding of the processes at work. This study undertook an extensive review of recently published literature to update the findings of the AR5 and provide a synthesized review on the main issues facing future oceans. The level of detail provided in the AR5 and subsequent work provided a basis for constructing projections of the state of ocean ecosystems in 2100 under two the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and 8.5. Finally the review highlights notable additions, clarifications and points of departure from AR5 provided by subsequent studies.

Meta-cognition about biological sex and gender-stereotypic physical appearance: Consequences for the assessment of leadership competence

Previous findings are inconsistent with regard to whether men are judged as being more or less competent leaders than women. However, masculine-relative to feminine-looking persons seem to be judged consistently as more competent leaders. Can this different impact of biological sex and physical appearance be due to the disparate availability of meta-cognitive knowledge about both sources? The results of Study 1 indicated that individuals possess meta-cognitive knowledge about a possible biasing influence of persons’ biological sex, but not for their physical appearance. In Study 2, participants judged the leadership competence of a male versus female stimulus person with either masculine or feminine physical appearance. In addition, the available cognitive capacity was manipulated. When high capacity was available, participants corrected for the influence of stimulus persons’ sex, but they fell prey to this influence under cognitive load. However, the effect of physical appearance was not moderated by cognitive capacity.

Biological and physical controls in the Southern Ocean on past millennial-scale atmospheric CO2 changes

Millennial-scale climate changes during the last glacial period and deglaciation were accompanied by rapid changes in atmospheric CO2 that remain unexplained. While the role of the Southern Ocean as a ’control valve’ on ocean–atmosphere CO2 exchange has been emphasized, the exact nature of this role, in particular the relative contributions of physical (for example, ocean dynamics and air–sea gas exchange) versus biological processes (for example, export productivity), remains poorly constrained. Here we combine reconstructions of bottom-water [O2], export production and 14C ventilation ages in the sub-Antarctic Atlantic, and show that atmospheric CO2 pulses during the last glacial- and deglacial periods were consistently accompanied by decreases in the biological export of carbon and increases in deep-ocean ventilation via southern-sourced water masses. These findings demonstrate how the Southern Ocean’s ’organic carbon pump’ has exerted a tight control on atmospheric CO2, and thus global climate, specifically via a synergy of both physical and biological processes.

Physical-Biological Oceanographic Coupling Influencing Phytoplankton and Primary Production in the South China Sea

Two cruises were carried out in the summer and winter of 1998 to study coupled physical-chemical-biological processes in the South China Sea and their effects on phytoplankton stock and production. The results clearly show that the seasonal distributions of phytoplankton were closely related to the coupled processes driven by the East Asian Monsoon. Summer southwesterly monsoon induced upwelling along the China and Vietnam coasts. Several mesoscale cyclonic cold eddies and anticyclonic warm pools were identified in both seasons. In the summer, the upwelling and cold eddies, both associated with rich nutrients, low dissolved oxygen ( DO), high chlorophyll a (Chl a) and primary production ( PP), were found in the areas off the coast of central Vietnam, southeast of Hainan Island and north of the Sunda shelf, whereas in the winter they form a cold trough over the deep basin aligning from southwest to northeast. The warm pools with poor nutrients, high DO, low Chl a, and PP were found in the areas southeast of Vietnam, east of Hainan, and west of Luzon during the summer, and a northwestward warm jet from the Sulu Sea with properties similar to the warm pools was encountered during the winter. The phytoplankton stock and primary production were lower in summer due to nutrient depletion near the surface, particularly PO4. This phosphorus depletion resulted in phytoplankton species succession from diatoms to dinoflagellates and cyanophytes. A strong subsurface Chl a maximum, dominated by photosynthetic picoplankton, was found to contribute significantly to phytoplankton stocks and production.

Physical and Biological Controls on the Latitudinal Asymmetry of Surface Nutrients and pCO(2) in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific

Surface nutrients and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the central (CEP) and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) show much higher concentrations to the south than to the north of the equator. In this study, the physical and biological controls on this asymmetry are investigated using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model. Two numerical experiments are conducted to examine the effects of asymmetrical photosynthetic efficiency (a) due to asymmetrical iron supply about the equator. The experiment with asymmetrical photosynthesis produces improved results as compared with historical observations. A nitrate budget analysis suggests that in the EEP the divergence of upwelling waters controls the surface nitrate asymmetry with additional contribution from the South Equatorial Current (SEC) carrying nutrient-rich Peru upwelling water. The changes of a affect the surface nitrate distribution but not the overall asymmetry. The SEC further carries excess nitrate to the west and thus extends the asymmetry in the east to the CEP. In the CEP, however, stronger northward than southward transport tends to reduce the nitrate asymmetry, while the asymmetrical photosynthesis would help to maintain it. Similar processes also control the distributions of surface silicate and DIC in the equatorial Pacific, which is also affected by the air-sea CO(2) exchange. The asymmetrical photosynthesis influences the distribution of surface DIC, pCO(2), and the air-sea CO(2) flux, by redistributing about 20% CO(2) flux from the north to the south of the equator. Owing to the adjustment of air-sea CO(2) flux, however, the net surface DIC change is smaller than the direct change associated with primary production.

Physical, chemical and biological characteristics of disturbed and undisturbed Arctic lakes, Northwest Territories

1. Global warming is predicted to cause changes in permafrost cover and stability in the Arctic. Zones of high ion concentration in regions of ice-rich permafrost are a reservoir of chemicals that can potentially be transferred to fresh waters during thawing. Consequently, input of enriched runoff from the thaw and sediment and vegetation from the landscape could alter lakes by affecting their geochemistry and biological production. 2. Three undisturbed lakes and five lakes disturbed by retrogressive permafrost thaw slumps were sampled during late summer of 2006 to assess the potential effects of thermokarst shoreline slumping on water and sediment chemistry, the underwater light regime, and benthic macrophyte biomass and community structure. 3. Undisturbed lakes had sediments rich in organic material and selected micronutrients, while disturbed lakes had sediments richer in calcium, magnesium and strontium, greater transparency of the water column, and a well-developed submerged macrophyte community. 4. It is postulated that enriched runoff chemistry may alter nutrient availability at the sediment-water interface and also the degradation of organic material, thus affecting lake transparency and submerged macrophytes. The results suggest that retrogressive permafrost slumping can significantly affect food webs in arctic tundra lakes through an increase in macrophyte biomass and development of a more complex benthic habitat.

Physical, biological and chemical characteristics of Canadian and Danish lakes during summer

1. Winter temperatures differ markedly on the Canadian prairies compared with Denmark. Between 1 January 1998 and 31 December 2002, average weekly and monthly temperatures did not drop below 0 °C in the vicinity of Silkeborg, Denmark. Over this same time, weekly average temperatures near Calgary, Alberta, Canada, often dropped below -10 °C for 3-5 weeks and the average monthly temperature was below 0 °C for 2-4 months. Accordingly, winter ice conditions in shallow lakes in Canada and Denmark differed considerably. 2. To assess the implications of winter climate for lake biotic structure and function we compared a number of variables that describe the chemistry and biology of shallow Canadian and Danish lakes that had been chosen to have similar morphometries. 3. The Danish lakes had a fourfold higher ratio of chlorophyll-a: total phosphorus (TP). Zooplankton : phytoplankton carbon was related to TP and fish abundance in Danish lakes but not in Canadian lakes. There was no significant difference in the ratio log total zooplankton biomass : log TP and the Canadian lakes had a significantly higher proportion of cladocerans that were Daphnia. These differences correspond well with the fact that the Danish lakes have more abundant and diverse fish communities than the Canadian lakes. 4. Our results suggest that severe Canadian winters lead to anoxia under ice and more depauperate fish communities, and stronger zooplankton control on phytoplankton in shallow prairie lakes compared with shallow Danish lakes. If climate change leads to warmer winters and a shorter duration of ice cover, we predict that shallow Canadian prairie lakes will experience increased survivorship of planktivores and stronger control of zooplankton. This, in turn, might decrease zooplankton control on phytoplankton, leading to 'greener' lakes on the Canadian prairies.