A sequential procedure for comparing two experimental treatments with a control

A procedure is described in which patients are randomized between two experimental treatments and a control. At a series of interim analyses, each experimental treatment is compared with control. One of the experimental treatments might then be found sufficiently superior to the control for it to be declared the best treatment, and the trial stopped. Alternatively, experimental treatments might be eliminated from further consideration at any stage. It is shown how the procedure can be conducted while controlling overall error probabilities. Data concerning evaluation of different doses of riluzole in the treatment of motor neurone disease are used for illustration.

An optimal sequential procedure for a buying-selling problem with independent observations

We consider a buying-selling problem when two stops of a sequence of independent random variables are required. An optimal stopping rule and the value of a game are obtained.

Welfare comparisons: sequential procedures for heterogenous populations

Some analysts use sequential dominance criteria, and others use equivalence scales in combination with non-sequential dominance tests, to make welfare comparisons of oint distributions of income and needs. In this paper we present a new sequential procedure hich copes with situations in which sequential dominance fails. We also demonstrate that there commendations deriving from the sequential approach are valid for distributions of equivalent income whatever equivalence scale the analyst might adopt. Thus the paper marries together the sequential and equivalizing approaches, seen as alternatives in much previous literature. All results are specified in forms which allow for demographic differences in the populations being compared.

Choice by sequential procedures

We propose a rule of decision-making, the sequential procedure guided byroutes, and show that three influential boundedly rational choice models can be equivalentlyunderstood as special cases of this rule. In addition, the sequential procedure guidedby routes is instrumental in showing that the three models are intimately related. We showthat choice with a status-quo bias is a refinement of rationalizability by game trees, which, inturn, is also a refinement of sequential rationalizability. Thus, we provide a sharp taxonomyof these choice models, and show that they all can be understood as choice by sequentialprocedures.

Optimal static and sequential design : a critical review

The aim of this thesis is to review and augment the theory and methods of optimal experimental design. In Chapter I the scene is set by considering the possible aims of an experimenter prior to an experiment, the statistical methods one might use to achieve those aims and how experimental design might aid this procedure. It is indicated that, given a criterion for design, a priori optimal design will only be possible in certain instances and, otherwise, some form of sequential procedure would seem to be indicated. In Chapter 2 an exact experimental design problem is formulated mathematically and is compared with its continuous analogue. Motivation is provided for the solution of this continuous problem, and the remainder of the chapter concerns this problem. A necessary and sufficient condition for optimality of a design measure is given. Problems which might arise in testing this condition are discussed, in particular with respect to possible non-differentiability of the criterion function at the design being tested. Several examples are given of optimal designs which may be found analytically and which illustrate the points discussed earlier in the chapter. In Chapter 3 numerical methods of solution of the continuous optimal design problem are reviewed. A new algorithm is presented with illustrations of how it should be used in practice. It is shown that, for reasonably large sample size, continuously optimal designs may be approximated to well by an exact design. In situations where this is not satisfactory algorithms for improvement of this design are reviewed. Chapter 4 consists of a discussion of sequentially designed experiments, with regard to both the philosophies underlying, and the application of the methods of, statistical inference. In Chapter 5 we criticise constructively previous suggestions for fully sequential design procedures. Alternative suggestions are made along with conjectures as to how these might improve performance. Chapter 6 presents a simulation study, the aim of which is to investigate the conjectures of Chapter 5. The results of this study provide empirical support for these conjectures. In Chapter 7 examples are analysed. These suggest aids to sequential experimentation by means of reduction of the dimension of the design space and the possibility of experimenting semi-sequentially. Further examples are considered which stress the importance of the use of prior information in situations of this type. Finally we consider the design of experiments when semi-sequential experimentation is mandatory because of the necessity of taking batches of observations at the same time. In Chapter 8 we look at some of the assumptions which have been made and indicate what may go wrong where these assumptions no longer hold.

Extração seletiva de metais pesados em sedimentos de fundo do Rio Tietê, São Paulo

Sediment samples from Tietê river were submitted to chemical and sequential extractions of heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn). It was followed a single extraction by using 0.1 mol L-1 hydrochloric acid and a sequential procedure to evaluate possible chemical associations described as exchangeable, carbonate, reducible oxides, sulfide, organic matter and residual fractions. High concentrations of heavy metals were determined at Pirapora reservoir, which is closer to the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo while for Barra Bonita reservoir, the results showed low concentrations for such elements. Acid volatile sulfides, grain size distribution and carbon contents were also determined.

Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: a test with plants in an arid environment

Aim To evaluate the effects of using distinct alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for rare plants in an arid environment. . Location Atacama and Peruvian Deserts, South America (18º30'S - 31º30'S, 0 - 3 000 m) Methods We modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Results The use of distinct sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions. Main conclusion Using different sets of climatic predictors can yield the same model fits but different spatial predictions of current and future species distributions. This represents a new form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk that may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies.

Extração seletiva de metais pesados em sedimentos de fundo do Rio Tietê, São Paulo

Sediment samples from Tietê river were submitted to chemical and sequential extractions of heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn). It was followed a single extraction by using 0.1 mol L-1 hydrochloric acid and a sequential procedure to evaluate possible chemical associations described as exchangeable, carbonate, reducible oxides, sulfide, organic matter and residual fractions. High concentrations of heavy metals were determined at Pirapora reservoir, which is closer to the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo while for Barra Bonita reservoir, the results showed low concentrations for such elements. Acid volatile sulfides, grain size distribution and carbon contents were also determined.

A onerosidade excessiva na revisão e extinção dos contratos: a concorrência na aplicação da regra dos arts. 317 e 478 do código civil vigente

A presente dissertação tem como tema central a onerosidade excessiva na revisão e extinção dos contratos no direito civil brasileiro. Ela aborda as hipóteses de rompimento do princípio do equilíbrio econômico contratual na fase de execução dos contratos em virtude da superveniência de fatos extraordinários e imprevisíveis que interrompem sua originária relação de equivalência. O presente estudo divide-se em seis grandes partes. Em primeiro lugar, fazem-se necessárias uma introdução e uma descrição da problemática relacionada ao tema. Em seguida, apresenta-se a origem histórica da revisão e da extinção contratual a partir do exame da cláusula rebus sic stantibus. Feito isso, são relatadas as teorias que as fundamentam pela doutrina e pela jurisprudência antes do advento do texto legal expresso que trata da matéria. Concluída essa fase histórica, analisa-se o direito positivo brasileiro vigente, primeiramente, por questões cronológicas, a revisão por onerosidade excessiva no Código de Defesa do Consumidor. Posteriormente, as disposições legais inseridas no Código Civil que possibilitam a revisão e resolução dos contratos por onerosidade excessiva, com uma análise dogmática dos pressupostos positivos e negativos necessários à aplicação dos arts. 317 e 478 do Código Civil. Em seguida, o estudo procura analisar algumas questões pontuais relacionadas à aplicação dos dois artigos, tais como: (i) quem tem legitimidade e interesse para requerer a revisão e resolução dos contratos, de acordo com os arts. 317 e 478 do Código Civil, respectivamente; (ii) qual é o papel do juiz na revisão e resolução dos contratos, de acordo com os arts. 317 e 478 do Código Civil, respectivamente; e (iii) se há concorrência na aplicação desses artigos ou deve ser observado um procedimento sequencial em atenção ao princípio da preservação dos contratos. Finalmente, o trabalho apresenta breve síntese e conclusões.

Adaptive designs in the time to event setting: The potential for benefit and risk

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Stopping rules in Bayesian adaptive threshold estimation

Threshold estimation with sequential procedures is justifiable on the surmise that the index used in the so-called dynamic stopping rule has diagnostic value for identifying when an accurate estimate has been obtained. The performance of five types of Bayesian sequential procedure was compared here to that of an analogous fixed-length procedure. Indices for use in sequential procedures were: (1) the width of the Bayesian probability interval, (2) the posterior standard deviation, (3) the absolute change, (4) the average change, and (5) the number of sign fluctuations. A simulation study was carried out to evaluate which index renders estimates with less bias and smaller standard error at lower cost (i.e. lower average number of trials to completion), in both yes–no and two-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) tasks. We also considered the effect of the form and parameters of the psychometric function and its similarity with themodel function assumed in the procedure. Our results show that sequential procedures do not outperform fixed-length procedures in yes–no tasks. However, in 2AFC tasks, sequential procedures not based on sign fluctuations all yield minimally better estimates than fixed-length procedures, although most of the improvement occurs with short runs that render undependable estimates and the differences vanish when the procedures run for a number of trials (around 70) that ensures dependability. Thus, none of the indices considered here (some of which are widespread) has the diagnostic value that would justify its use. In addition, difficulties of implementation make sequential procedures unfit as alternatives to fixed-length procedures.

Validation of a single-extraction procedure for sequential analysis of vitamin E, cholesterol, fatty acids, and total fat in seafood

Food lipid major components are usually analyzed by individual methodologies using diverse extractive procedures for each class. A simple and fast extractive procedure was devised for the sequential analysis of vitamin E, cholesterol, fatty acids, and total fat estimation in seafood, reducing analyses time and organic solvent consumption. Several liquid/liquid-based extractive methodologies using chlorinated and non-chlorinated organic solvents were tested. The extract obtained is used for vitamin E quantification (normal-phase HPLC with fluorescence detection), total cholesterol (normal-phase HPLC with UV detection), fatty acid profile, and total fat estimation (GC-FID), all accomplished in <40 min. The final methodology presents an adequate linearity range and sensitivity for tocopherol and cholesterol, with intra- and inter-day precisions (RSD) from 3 to 11 % for all the components. The developed methodology was applied to diverse seafood samples with positive outcomes, making it a very attractive technique for routine analyses in standard equipped laboratories in the food quality control field.

Development of a spectrophotometric Sequential Injection Analysis (SIA) procedure for determination of ammonium: A Response Surface Methodology (RSM) approach

This paper describes the optimization and use of a Sequential Injection Analysis (SIA) procedure for ammonium determination in waters. Response Surface Methodology (RSM) was used as a tool for optimization of a procedure based on the modified Berthelot reaction. The SIA system was designed to (i) prepare the reaction media by injecting an air-segmented zone containing the reagents in a mixing chamber, (ii) to aspirate the mixture back to the holding coil after homogenization, (iii) drive it to a thermostated reaction coil, where the flow is stopped for a previously established time, and (iv) to pump the mixture toward the detector flow cell for the spectrophotometric measurements. Using a 100 mu mol L(-1) ammonium solution, the following factors were considered for optimization: reaction temperature (25 - 45 degrees C), reaction time (30 - 90 s), hypochlorite concentration (20 - 40 mmol L(-1)) nitroprusside concentration (10 - 40 mmol L(-1)) and salicylate concentration (0.1 - 0.3 mol L(-1)). The proposed system fed the statistical program with absorbance data for fast construction of response surface plots. After optimization of the method, figures of merit were evaluated, as well as the ammonium concentration in some water samples. No evidence of statistical difference was observed in the results obtained by the proposed method in comparison to those obtained by a reference method based on the phenol reaction. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determination of picloram in waters by sequential injection chromatography with UV detection

This paper describes a sequential injection chromatography procedure for determination of picloram in waters exploring the low backpressure of a 2.5 cm long monolithic C18 column. Separation of the analyte from the matrix was achieved in less than 60 s using a mobile phase composed by 20:80 (v v-1) acetonitrile:5.0 mmol L-1 H3PO4 and flow rate of 30 μL s-1. Detection was made at 223 nm with a 40 mm optical path length cell. The limits of detection and quantification were 33 and 137 μg L-1, respectively. The proposed method is sensitive enough to monitor the maximum concentration level for picloram in drinking water (500 μg L-1). The sampling frequency is 60 analyses per hour, consuming only 300 μL of acetonitrile per analysis. The proposed methodology was applied to spiked river water samples and no statistically significant differences were observed in comparison to a conventional HPLC-UV method.

Sequential injection analysis implementing multiple standard additions for As speciation by liquid chromatography and atomic fluorescence spectrometry (SIA-HPLC-AFS)

An analytical procedure for multiple standard additions of arsenic species using sequential injection analysis (SIA) is proposed for their quantification in seafood extracts. SIA presented flexibility for generating multiple specie standards at the ng mL(-1) concentration level by adding different volumes of As(III), As(V), monomethylarsonic (MMA) and dimethylarsinic (DMA) to the sample. The mixed sample plus standard solutions were delivered from SIA to fill the HPLC injection loop. Subsequently, As species were separated by HPLC and analyzed by atomic fluorescence spectrometry (AFS). The proposed system comprised two independently controlled modules, with the HPLC loop acting as the intermediary device. The analytical frequency was enhanced by combining the actions of both modules. While the added sample was flowing through the chromatographic column towards the detection system, the SIA program started performing the standard additions to another sample. The proposed method was applied to spoiled seafood extracts. Detection limits based on 3 sigma for As(III), As(V), MMA and DMA were 0.023, 0.39, 0.45 and 1.0 ng mL(-1), respectively. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.