Do You Want to Hear the Bad News? The Value of Diagnostic Tests for Alzheimer's Disease.

OBJECTIVE: The diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) remains difficult. Lack of diagnostic certainty or possible distress related to a positive result from diagnostic testing could limit the application of new testing technologies. The objective of this paper is to quantify respondents' preferences for obtaining AD diagnostic tests and to estimate the perceived value of AD test information. METHODS: Discrete-choice experiment and contingent-valuation questions were administered to respondents in Germany and the United Kingdom. Choice data were analyzed by using random-parameters logit. A probit model characterized respondents who were not willing to take a test. RESULTS: Most respondents indicated a positive value for AD diagnostic test information. Respondents who indicated an interest in testing preferred brain imaging without the use of radioactive markers. German respondents had relatively lower money-equivalent values for test features compared with respondents in the United Kingdom. CONCLUSIONS: Respondents preferred less invasive diagnostic procedures and tests with higher accuracy and expressed a willingness to pay up to €700 to receive a less invasive test with the highest accuracy.

Delivering value for money in the procurement of public sector major infrastructure : a new first-order decision making model

The significant challenge faced by government in demonstrating value for money in the delivery of major infrastructure resolves around estimating costs and benefits of alternative modes of procurement. Faced with this challenge, one approach is to focus on a dominant performance outcome visible on the opening day of the asset, as the means to select the procurement approach. In this case, value for money becomes a largely nominal concept and determined by selected procurement mode delivering, or not delivering, the selected performance outcome, and notwithstanding possible under delivery on other desirable performance outcomes, as well as possibly incurring excessive transaction costs. This paper proposes a mind-set change in this particular practice, to an approach in which the analysis commences with the conditions pertaining to the project and proceeds to deploy transaction cost and production cost theory to indicate a procurement approach that can claim superior value for money relative to other competing procurement modes. This approach to delivering value for money in relative terms is developed in a first-order procurement decision making model outlined in this paper. The model developed could be complementary to the Public Sector Comparator (PSC) in terms of cross validation and the model more readily lends itself to public dissemination. As a possible alternative to the PSC, the model could save time and money in preparation of project details to lesser extent than that required in the reference project and may send a stronger signal to the market that may encourage more innovation and competition.

The Meanings of New Money: Social Constructions of Value in the Rise of Digital Currencies

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-07

Effect of carbon equivalent and inoculation on residual stresses in grey iron castings

It is virtually impossible to produce castings free from internal stresses using conventional methods of founding. Castings with appreciable stresses distort during storage, transportation, machining and service. Though composition and melt treatment are known to affect the magnitude of residual stress in castings, the data on the effect of carbon equivalent and inoculation on the magnitude of residual stress in castings are limited. In the present investigation, an attempt is made to study (i) the effect of carbon equivalent on residual stress in cast iron castings, and (ii) the effect of inoculants such as calcium silicide and ferrosilicon on residual stress in iron castings in the carbon equivalent range 3.0–4.0%. The results of the investigation indicate the following: (i) the residual strains decrease linearly with increase in carbon equivalent in the uninoculated and inoculated irons; (ii) the tensile residual stresses decrease linearly with increase in carbon equivalent value of the uninoculated, calcium silicide-inoculated and ferrosilicon-inoculated cast iron castings; (iii) the ratio of UTS to residual stress increased on inoculating the grid castings. This increase is higher for calcium silicide-inoculated grids than for ferrosilicon-inoculated grid castings. This implies that from the residual stress point of view, inoculation of the iron with calcium silicide is beneficial.

Towards a Variety of Family Models: Economic Contributions of Spouses and Family Power

In Western societies the increase in female employment (especially among married women) is seen as having brought about the crisis of the traditional model of the family, reinforcing the position of the "modern" model - the egalitarian family with two working spouses and a "dual-career" family. In contrast, the transitional situation in the post-communist countries during the 1990s is producing a crisis of the family with two working spouses (the basic type of the communist period) and leading to new power relations within the family. While the growth of dual-earner households in this century has implied modification of family models towards greater symmetry of responsibility for breadwinning and homemaking, there is considerable evidence that women's increased employment does not necessarily lead to a more egalitarian approach to gender roles within the family. The group set out to investigate the economic situation of families and economic power within the fame as a crucial factor in the transformation of families with two working spouses in order to reveal the specific patterns of gender contracts and power relations within the family that are emerging in response to the current political and economic transformation. They opted for a comparative approach, selecting the Czech Republic as a country where the very similar tendencies of a few years ago (almost 100% of women employed and the family as a realm of considerable private freedom where both women's and men's gender identities and the traditional distribution of family responsibilities were largely preserved) are combined with a very different experience in terms of economic inequalities during the 1990s to that of Russia. In the first stage of the study they surveyed 300 married couples (150 in each country) on the question of breadwinning. They then carried out in-depth interviews with 10 couples from each country (selected from among the educated layers of the population), focusing on the process of the social construction of gender, using breadwinning and homemaking as gender boundaries which distinguish men from women. By analysing changes in social position and the type of interpersonal interaction of spouses they distinguished two main types of family contracts: the neo-traditional "communal sharing" (with male breadwinner, traditional distribution of family chores and negotiated family power) and the modern one based on negotiated agreement. The most important pre-conditions of husband-wife agreement about breadwinning seemed to imply their overall gender ideology rather than the economic and/or family circumstances. In general, wives were more likely to express egalitarian views, supporting the blurring or even elimination of many gender boundaries. Husbands, on the other hand, more often gave responses calling for the continued maintenance of gender boundaries. The analysis showed that breadwinning is still an important gender boundary in these cultures, one that is assumed unless it is explicitly questioned and that is seen as part of what makes a man a "real man". The majority of respondents seemed to be committed to egalitarian ideology on gender roles and the distribution of family tasks, including decision making, but this is contradicted by the persistent idea of the husband as the breadwinner. This contradiction is more characteristic of the Russian situation than of the Czech. The quantitative study showed a difference in prevailing family models between the two countries, with a clearer shift towards the traditional family contract in the Russian case. The Czechs were more likely to consider their partnerships as based on negotiated agreement, while the Russians saw theirs as based on egalitarian contract, in both cases seeing this as the norm. The majority of couples said they felt satisfied with their marriage, although in both countries wives seemed to be less satisfied. There was however a difference in the issues that aroused dissatisfaction, with Czech women being more sensitive to issues such as self-realisation, personal independence, understanding and recognition in the family, and Russians to issues of love, understanding and recognition. The most disputed area for the majority of families was chores in the home, presumably because in many families both husband and wife were working hard outside the home and because a number of partners had differing views as to the ideal distribution of chores within the family. The distribution of power in the family seems to be linked to the level of well being. The analysis showed that in the dominant democratic model there is still an inverse connection between family leadership and well being: the more prominent the wife's position as head of the family is, the lower the level of family income. This may reflect both the husband's refusal to play the leading role in the family and even his rejection of any involvement in family issues in such a family. The qualitative research revealed that both men and women see the breadwinning role to be an essential part of masculine identity, a role which the female partner would take on temporarily to assist the male but not permanently since this would threaten the gender boundaries and the man's identity. At the same time, few breadwinners expressed a sense of job satisfaction and all considered their choice as imposed on them by the circumstances (i.e. having a family in difficult times). The group feel that family orientation and some loss of personal involvement in their profession is partly reflected in the fact that many of the men felt more comfortable and self-confident at home than at work. Women's work, on the other hand, was largely seen as a source of personal and self-realisation and social life. Eight out of ten of the Russian women interviewed were employed, although only two on a full-time basis, but none saw their jobs as adding substantially to the family budget. Both partners see the most important factor as the wife's wish to work or stay at home, and do not think it wise for the wife to work at the expense of her part of the "family contract", although husbands from the "egalitarian" relationships expressed more willingness to compromise. The analysis showed clearly that wives and husbands did not construct gender boundaries in isolation, with the interviews providing clear evidence of negotiation. At the same time, husbands' interpretations of their wives' employment were less susceptible to the influence of negotiation than were their gender attitudes and norms about breadwinning. One of the most interesting aspects of the spouses' negotiations was the extent to which they disagreed about what they seemed to have agreed upon. Most disagreements about the breadwinning boundaries, however, were over norms and were settled by changes in norms rather than in behavioural interpretation. Changes in norms were often a form of peace offering or were in response in changes in circumstances. The study did show, however, that many of the efforts at cooperation and compensation were more symbolic than real and the group found the plasticity of expressed gender ideology to be one of the most striking findings of their work. They conclude that the shift towards more traditional gednder distributions of incomes and domestic chores does not automatically mean the reestablishment of a patriarchal model of family power. On the contrary, it seems to be a compromise formation, relatively unstable, temporary and containing self-defeating forces as the split between the personal and professional value of work and its social value expressed in a money equivalent cannot be maintained for generations.

Dismantling the public sector bastion : evaluation capital works

Purpose: The determination of the most appropriate procurement system for a capital works project is a challenging task for public sector clients considering the array of assessment criteria that are considered and the procurement methods that are available. This is particularly pertinent to the Western Australian public sector where they have had a propensity to use traditional lump sum as the default procurement solution despite knowing that the selection of an inappropriate procurement method may lead to cost and time overruns, claims, and disputes’ on projects. This paper presents a six step procurement method evaluation approach that requires public sector agencies to consider in detail an array of options so as to obtain value for money. Design/methodology/approach: A procurement evaluation approach is developed and is examined using a focus group of 12 participants comprising of a public sector client, project team and key stakeholders. The focus group was used to examine the developed approach in the context of a real-life capital works project. Findings: The procurement method evaluation approach was deemed to be pragmatic and enabled decision-makers to re-evaluate outcomes from previous steps in the process. All focus group participants stated the six step process enabled a recommendation that was grounded in reflection and detailed evaluation. Practical implications: The developed procurement approach has enabled the public sector client evaluate the way in which they view procurement method selection and examine how they obtain ‘value for money’. Originality/value: The six step procurement approach makes use of quantitative and qualitative techniques and is reliant on discourse and reflection in making a procurement method recommendation. Consequently, the approach enables public sector clients to account for the complexities often associated with procurement selection.

Relationship between physical activity and stiff or painful joints in mid-aged women and older women: a 3-year prospective study

This prospective study examined the association between physical activity and the incidence of self-reported stiff or painful joints (SPJ) among mid-age women and older women over a 3-year period. Data were collected from cohorts of mid-age (48–55 years at Time 1; n = 4,780) and older women (72–79 years at Time 1; n = 3,970) who completed mailed surveys 3 years apart for the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Physical activity was measured with the Active Australia questions and categorized based on metabolic equivalent value minutes per week: none (<40 MET.min/week); very low (40 to <300 MET.min/week); low (300 to <600 MET.min/week); moderate (600 to <1,200 MET.min/week); and high (1,200+ MET.min/week). Cohort-specific logistic regression models were used to examine the association between physical activity at Time 1 and SPJ 'sometimes or often' and separately 'often' at Time 2. Respondents reporting SPJ 'sometimes or often' at Time 1 were excluded from analysis. In univariate models, the odds of reporting SPJ 'sometimes or often' were lower for mid-age respondents reporting low (odds ratio (OR) = 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.63–0.94), moderate (OR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68–0.99), and high (OR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.62–0.90) physical activity levels and for older respondents who were moderately (OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.65–0.98) or highly active (OR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.69–0.99) than for those who were sedentary. After adjustment for confounders, these associations were no longer statistically significant. The odds of reporting SPJ 'often' were lower for mid-age respondents who were moderately active (OR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.52–0.97) than for sedentary respondents in univariate but not adjusted models. Older women in the low (OR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.55–0.96), moderate (OR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.39–0.76), and high (OR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.46–0.82) physical activity categories had lower odds of reporting SPJ 'often' at Time 2 than their sedentary counterparts, even after adjustment for confounders. These results are the first to show a dose–response relationship between physical activity and arthritis symptoms in older women. They suggest that advice for older women not currently experiencing SPJ should routinely include counseling on the importance of physical activity for preventing the onset of these symptoms.

Stakeholder service delivery expectations of military facilities management

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the quality of service of a South East Asian country's military facilities management organisation. Design/methodology/approach – An interview survey and questionnaire survey were used to obtain a description and summary of stakeholders’ expectations and the extent to which they were being satisfied by the services provided. Findings – The method provides a useful means of identifying and prioritising varying expectations between stakeholder groups and of indicating any mismatch in expectations in the management of military facilities. Social implications – The development and use of a method to test and improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the management of military facilities helps in providing better value for money. Originality/value – In addition to re-affirming Parasuraman's overall dimensions of service expectation, the empirical summary of the stakeholders’ expectations obtained in this way is of practical value for the service provider in developing a strategy for expectation management. For the case studied, it is also apparent that although the current processes in service delivery are well understood by all involved stakeholders, there is a need for further improvement with regards to their expectation levels. It is also one of the very few reported studies on the management of military facilities.

Suomi ja Euroopan kirkollinen jälleenrakentaminen 1945-1948

The international aid that the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland received between 1945 and 1948 is the topic of this historical study, in which the process of reconstruction of the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland is examined in a European context. The key questions are related not only to the achievements of the reconstruction programs but also to the purposes and objectives of the donating churches. The study pays particular attention to the changes in the ecclesiastical, political and economic fields after the Second World War and asks how the tense political atmosphere of a divided world affected the reconstruction programs of the churches. It is possible to distinguish three periods within the European church reconstruction process. To begin with, the year 1945 was, in general, the year of organization. Many churches had started planning reconstruction work already during the war, but only after the conflict in Europe had ceased did they have a chance to renew contacts, assess the damage and begin operations. The years 1946 and 1947 were the main years of the work. Large reconstruction organizations from American churches donated money, food, clothes and vitamins worth millions of dollars to the European churches. The work started to diminish as early as 1948, partly because Marshall Plan aid and the rising standard of living had reduced the need for material assistance in many countries and partly because other problems overshadowed the reconstruction work of the World Council of Churches: for example, most WCC resources at this time were directed to refugee programs and to Third World churhces. The most important donors from the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland's point of view were the American Section of the Lutheran World Federation, the World Council of Churches and the Churches of Denmark, Sweden and England. The amount of money and value of goods received by the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland totaled approximately 2.5 million dollars, from which about 60 per cent came from the Lutheran churches of America. The importance of the Lutheran World Federation was even greater because of the productive financial arrangements that increased the American Lutheran funds. In addition the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland imported hundreds of tons of tax-free coffee and sold this to Finns. The money gained was used mostly to rebuild destroyed church buildings and to support the work of different ecclesiastical organizations. Smaller amounts were used for scholarship programs, youth work, and supporting sick and disabled church workers.

非粮原料燃料乙醇发酵关键技术的研究

生物质燃料乙醇是一种高度清洁的交通液体燃料，是减少温室气体排放，缓解大气污染的最佳技术选择。以非粮原料生产燃料乙醇可以在进行能源生产的同时保证粮食安全，有利于产业的可持续发展。在众多的非粮原料中，甘薯是我国开发潜力最大的生物质能源作物之一。我国占世界甘薯种植总面积和产量的90％。同时，甘薯的单位面积燃料乙醇产量远大于玉米和小麦。其成本是目前酒精中最低廉的，因此利用甘薯生产乙醇是发展生物质燃料乙醇的首要选择。目前采用薯类全原料主要采用分批发酵生产乙醇，其技术水平低，发酵强度低，一般在0.7－2.5g/（L•h），乙醇浓度低，甘薯发酵乙醇为6－8％(v/v)，能耗高，环境负荷大，污染严重。针对上述问题，本文从菌株选育、原料预处理、中试放大、残糖成分分析等方面进行研究。 为了研究乙醇发酵生产规模扩大过程中，大型发酵罐底部高压条件下，CO2对酵母乙醇发酵的影响，我们通过CO2 加压的方法进行模拟试验，研究结果表明，发酵时间随压强的升高而逐渐延长，高压CO2 对乙醇发酵效率影响不大，在0.3 MPa 以下时，发酵效率均可达到90%以上。高压CO2 对发酵的抑制作用是高压和CO2 这两个因素联合作用的结果。高压CO2 条件下，酵母胞外酶和胞内重要酶类的酶活均表现出特征性。0.2 MPa 下，酶活性的变化趋势和0.1 MPa 条件下的较为一致。而0.3 MPa 下的酶活变化趋势与0.4 MPa 下的酶活更为接近。通过全基因表达分析发现在CO2 压力为0.3 MPa 下，乙醇发酵途径中多个基因表达量下调，同时海藻糖合成酶和热激蛋白基因表达量上调。 筛选耐高温的乙醇酵母菌株能够解决糖化温度和发酵温度不协调的矛盾，实现真正意义上的边糖化边发酵。高温发酵还能够降低发酵时的冷却成本，实现乙醇的周年生产。本研究筛选出一株高温发酵菌株Y-H1，进而我们对该菌株的胞外酶和胞内乙醇代谢重要酶类的酶活性进行了分析。结果表明Y-H1 能够在40 ℃条件下正常进行乙醇发酵，发酵33h，最终乙醇浓度达到10.7%（w/w），发酵效率达到90%以上。同时发酵液最终pH 在3.5 左右，显示菌株具有一定的耐酸性能力。同时观察到40 ℃下，菌株的胞外酶和胞内乙醇代谢重要酶类的酶活性发生了变化，乙醇发酵途径中关键酶基因表达下调，而海藻糖合成酶与热激蛋白基因表达量上调，这些结果为进一步研究酵母菌耐热调控机理提供了依据。 糖蜜是一种大规模工业生产乙醇的理想原料，本研究利用选育高浓度乙醇发酵菌株结合配套的发酵稳定剂，研究了糖蜜高浓度乙醇发酵情况。结果表明采用冷酸沉淀预处理糖蜜溶液，采用分批补料的发酵方式，乙醇浓度最高达到了10.26% (w/w)，发酵时间为42 h。同时观察到在糖蜜发酵中，乙醛含量与乙醇浓度存在一定的相关性。 快速乙醇发酵对于缩短乙醇生产周期、降低乙醇生产成本、减少原料腐烂损失具有重要意义。本研究诱变和筛选得到了一株快速乙醇发酵菌株10232B。在优化后的发酵条件下，采用10L 发酵罐进行分批乙醇发酵，经过18h,乙醇的最终浓度达到88.5g/L,发酵效率93.6%，平均乙醇生产速度达到4.92 g/L/h。此菌株在保持较高乙醇生产浓度的同时，拥有快速生产乙醇的能力，适合作为快速乙醇发酵生产菌种。 由于鲜甘薯具有粘度大的特点，传统液化糖化处理很难在短时间内充分糖化原料；高粘度的醪液也难以进行管道输送，容易堵塞管路；同时，也会降低后续的乙醇发酵效率。 本文采用了快速粘度分析法对鲜甘薯糊化粘度特性进行了分析，进而对预处理条件进行了研究，在最佳预处理条件下，糖化2h 后，醪液葡萄糖值最高可达99.3，粘度4.5×104 mPa.s，而采用传统糖化工艺，醪液DE 值仅为85.8，粘度大于1.0×105 mPa.s。 此预处理方法也可用于快速糖化不加水的醪液。后续的乙醇发酵试验表明，通过此预处理方法获得的糖化醪液对乙醇发酵无负面影响。 在前期已实现了实验室水平的鲜甘薯燃料乙醇快速乙醇发酵基础上，进一步将发酵规模扩大到500L，在中试水平上对甘薯乙醇发酵进行了研究。结果表明在500L 中试规模，采用边糖化边发酵（SSF）工艺，在料液比为3∶1，发酵醪液最高粘度为6×104mPa.s 条件下，发酵37h，乙醇浓度达到了12.7%（v/v），发酵效率91%，发酵强度为2.7 g/（L•h）。与目前国内的薯类乙醇发酵生产技术水平具有明显的优越性。 为研究甘薯、木薯乙醇发酵中残糖的组成，采用了高效液相色谱—蒸发光散射检测法，对乙醇发酵残糖进行了分析。结果表明，甘薯、木薯乙醇发酵残糖均为寡聚糖，主要由葡萄糖、木糖、半乳糖、阿拉伯糖和甘露糖构成。随着发酵时间延长，寡聚糖中的葡萄糖、半乳糖、甘露糖可被缓慢的水解释放。提高糖化酶量仅在一定程度上降低残糖，过量的糖化酶反而会导致残糖增加。同时发现3, 5-二硝基水杨酸法不能准确测定甘薯、木薯乙醇发酵中的残总糖含量。进一步筛选了两株残糖降解菌株，对甘薯乙醇发酵残糖的降解利用率均达到了40%以上，而且还能显著降低发酵醪液粘度。经形态学和rRNA ITS 序列分析，确定这两株菌分别属于为木霉属和曲霉属黑曲霉组。 通过对以甘薯原料为代表的非粮原料发酵技术研究开发，以期形成乙醇转化率高，能耗低，生产效率高、季节适应性好，原料适应性广，经济性强，符合清洁生产机制的燃料乙醇高效转化技术，为具有我国特色的燃料乙醇发展模式提供技术支持。 Sweet potato is one of the major feedstock for the fuel ethanol production in China. The planting area and the yield in China take 90% of the world. Sweet potato is an efficient kind of energy crops. The energy outcome per area is higher than corn or wheat. And the manufacture cost of ethanol is the lowest, compared with corn and wheat. So sweet potato is the favorable crop for the bioethanol production in China. However, the low-level fermentation technology restricts the development of ethanol production by sweet potato, including slow ethanol production rate, low ethanol concentration and high energy cost. To solve these problems, we conducted research on the strain breeding, pretreatment, pilot fermentation test and residual saccharides analysis. To study the impact of hyperbaric condition at bottom of the large fermentor on yeast fermentation, high pressure carbon dioxide (CO2) was adopted to simulate the situation. The results showed that the fermentation was prolonged with the increasing pressure. The pressure of CO2 had little impact on the ethanol yield which could reach 90% under the pressure below 0.3 MPa. The inhibition was combined by the high pressure and CO2. Under the high CO2 pressure, the extracellular and important intracellular enzyme activities were different from those under normal state. The changes under 0.1 MPa and 0.2 MPa were similar. The changes under 0.3 MPa were closer to those under 0.4 MPa. The application of thermotolerance yeast could solve the problem of the inconsistent temperature between fermentation and saccharificaton and fulfill the real simultaneous saccharification and fermentation. And it could reduce the cooling cost. A thermotolerance strain Y-H1 was isolated in our research. It gave high ethanol concentration of 10.7%（w/w）at 40 ℃ for 33 h. The ethanol yield efficiency was over 90%. At 40 ℃, the extracellular and important intracellular enzyme activities of Y-H1 showed the difference with normal state, which may indicate its physiological changes at the high temperature. Molasses is another feedstock for industrial ethanol production. By our ethanol-tolerance strain and the regulation reagents, the fermentation with high ethanol concentration was investigated. In fed-batch mode combined with cold acid deposition, the highest ethanol concentration was 10.26% (w/w) for 42h. The aldehyde concentration in fermentation was found to be related to ethanol concentration. The development of a rapid ethanol fermentation strain of Zymomonas mobilis is essential for reducing the cost of ethanol production and for the timely utilization of fresh material that is easily decayed in the Chinese bioethanol industry. A mutant Z. mobilis strain, 10232B, was generated by UV mutagenesis. Under these optimized conditions, fermentation of the mutant Z. mobilis 10232B strain was completed in just 18 h with a high ethanol production rate, at an average of 4.92 gL-1h-1 per batch. The final maximum ethanol concentration was 88.5 gL-1, with an ethanol yield efficiency of 93.6%. This result illustrated the potential use of the mutant Z. mobilis 10232B strain in rapid ethanol fermentation in order to help reduce the cost of industrial ethanol production. As fresh sweet potato syrup shows high viscosity, it is hard to be fully converted to glucose by enzymes in the traditional saccharification process. The high-viscosity syrup is difficult to be transmitted in pipes, which may be easily blocked. Meanwhile it could also reduce the later ethanol fermentation efficiency. To solve these problems, effects of the pretreatment conditions were investigated. The highest dextrose equivalent value of 99.3 and the lowest viscosity of 4.5×104 mPa.s were obtained by the most favorable pretreatment conditions, while those of 85.8 and over 1.0×105 mPa.s was produced by traditional treatment conditions. The pretreatment could also be applied on the material syrup without adding water. The later experiments showed that the pretreated syrup had no negative effect on the ethanol fermentation and exhibited lower viscosity. The fuel ethanol rapid production from fresh sweet potato was enlarged in the 500L pilot scale after its fulfillment on the laboratory level. The optimal ratio of material to water was 3 to 1 in 500L fermentor. With low-temperature-cooking (85 ℃) using SSF, the Saccharomyces cerevisiae was able to produce ethanol 97.44 g/kg for 37h, which reached 92% of theoretical yield. The average ethanol production rate was 4.06 g/kg/h. And the maximum viscosity of syrup reached 6×104mPa.s. The results showed its superiority over current industrial ethanol fermentation. The compositions of the residual saccharides in the ethanol fermentation by sweet potato and cassava were analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography coupled with evaporative light-scattering detector. The results showed that all the residual saccharides were oligosaccharides, mainly composed of glucose, xylose, galactose, arabinose and mannose. The glucose, galactose and mannose could be slowly hydrolyzed from oligosaccharides in syrup during a long period. To increase the glucoamylase dosage could lower the residual saccharides to a certain extent. However, excess glucoamylase dosage led to more residual saccharides. And the method of 3, 5-dinitrosalicylic acid could not accurately quantify the residual total saccharides content. Two residual saccharides degrading strains were isolated, which could utilize 40% of total residual saccharide and lower the syrup viscosity. With the analysis of morphology and internal transcribed spacer sequence, they were finally identified as species of Trichoderma and Aspergillus niger.

Reatividade de uma escória de siderurgia em um latossolo vermelho distrófico

O presente trabalho objetivou estudar a reatividade de uma escória de siderurgia de aciaria, em diferentes frações granulométricas, aplicada em uma amostra de um Latossolo Vermelho distrófico, ácido, em condições de laboratório. Utilizou-se um fatorial 4 x 3 + 2 com quatro repetições, sendo quatro granulometrias (material retido entre as peneiras ABNT 5-10; 10-20; 20-50 e < 50), três doses de escória, correspondentes a 0,00, 5,04 e 10,08 t ha-1, ou seja, 0,00, 1,01 e 2,02 g por copo com 0,40 dm³ de solo e duas testemunhas (escória e calcário dolomítico, na dose correspondente a V = 70 %, ou seja, 1,01 e 0,60 g por copo, respectivamente). Para definir as doses, adotou-se o método da saturação por bases, considerando-se o valor do PRNT da escória e do calcário, obtidos na granulometria correspondente. O solo foi mantido na capacidade de campo e incubado durante os períodos de três, seis e nove meses. As frações granulométricas da escória influiram diferentemente na acidez do solo. A fração retida entre as peneiras ABNT 5-10 mostrou-se ineficiente, enquanto a fração que passa pela peneira ABNT 50 foi a que conferiu o maior efeito na neutralização da acidez. A reatividade das partículas da escória retidas nas peneiras intermediárias, ABNT 10-20 e 20-50, foi proporcional aos valores vigentes na legislação brasileira para calcários. Portanto, a taxa de reatividade obtida para a escória foi de: ABNT nº 5-10 = 0 %; 10-20 = 22 %; 20-50 = 58 % e < 50 = 100 %.

Predição de parâmetros e valores genéticos para caracteres de crescimento e produção de látex em progênies de seringueira

O trabalho objetivou estimar parâmetros e valores genéticos para os caracteres altura, diâmetro, produção de látex e produtividade de progênies de seringueira. As progênies meio-irmãos foram estabelecidas sob delineamento de blocos ao acaso, com 28 tratamentos (progênies), cinco repetições e dez plantas por parcela. Aos três anos de idade, as progênies foram avaliadas quanto aos caracteres: a) altura total (cm); b) diâmetro (mm); c) Produção de borracha seca (g) e produtividade (g cm-2). As estimativas dos coeficientes de herdabilidades individuais (0,33; 0,24 e 0,51) para os caracteres altura, diâmetro e produtividade, respectivamente, foram consideradas expressivas. Para o caráter produção de borracha seca, a estimativa do coeficiente de herdabilidade individual, no sentido restrito (9%), embora de baixa magnitude, revela excelente possibilidade de seleção, pois conduziram a estimativa da herdabilidade, em nível de médias de família, a um valor equivalente a 68%. A acurácia entre os valores genéticos preditos e os verdadeiros foram de 0,80 para altura, 0,76 para diâmetro, 0,62 para produção de borracha seca e 0,86 para produtividade. As estimativas de herdabilidades individuais associadas às de médias de progênies podem maximizar os ganhos genéticos com a seleção na população. A inclusão do caráter produtividade foi promissora e deve ser utilizada na seqüência das avaliações, subsidiando o programa de melhoramento genético da espécie no Estado de Mato Grosso do Sul.

Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.

Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.

Value for money : procuring infrastructure

Australia is just one of many developed countries facing the challenge of delivering value for money in the provision of a substantial infrastructure pipeline amidst severe construction and private finance constraints. To help address this challenge, this chapter focuses on developing an understanding of the determinants of value at key procurement decision points that range from the make-or-buy decision, to buying in the context of market structures, including the exchange relationship and contractual arrangement decision. This understanding is based on theoretical pluralism and illustrated by research in the field of construction and maintenance, and in public-private partnerships.