Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.

Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Reduction of Models in the Presence of Nuisance Parameters

In many statistical inference problems, there is interest in estimation of only some elements of the parameter vector that defines the adopted model. In general, such elements are associated to measures of location and the additional terms, known as nuisance parameters, to control the dispersion and asymmetry of the underlying distributions. To estimate all the parameters of the model and to draw inferences only on the parameters of interest. Depending on the adopted model, this procedure can be both algebraically is common and computationally very costly and thus it is convenient to reduce it, so that it depends only on the parameters of interest. This article reviews estimation methods in the presence of nuisance parameters and consider some applications in models recently discussed in the literature.

Likelihood prediction for generalized linear mixed models under covariate uncertainty

This paper presents the techniques of likelihood prediction for the generalized linear mixed models. Methods of likelihood prediction is explained through a series of examples; from a classical one to more complicated ones. The examples show, in simple cases, that the likelihood prediction (LP) coincides with already known best frequentist practice such as the best linear unbiased predictor. The paper outlines a way to deal with the covariate uncertainty while producing predictive inference. Using a Poisson error-in-variable generalized linear model, it has been shown that in complicated cases LP produces better results than already know methods.

Cross-validated maximum likelihood enhances crystallographic simulated annealing refinement

Recently, the target function for crystallographic refinement has been improved through a maximum likelihood analysis, which makes proper allowance for the effects of data quality, model errors, and incompleteness. The maximum likelihood target reduces the significance of false local minima during the refinement process, but it does not completely eliminate them, necessitating the use of stochastic optimization methods such as simulated annealing for poor initial models. It is shown that the combination of maximum likelihood with cross-validation, which reduces overfitting, and simulated annealing by torsion angle molecular dynamics, which simplifies the conformational search problem, results in a major improvement of the radius of convergence of refinement and the accuracy of the refined structure. Torsion angle molecular dynamics and the maximum likelihood target function interact synergistically, the combination of both methods being significantly more powerful than each method individually. This is demonstrated in realistic test cases at two typical minimum Bragg spacings (dmin = 2.0 and 2.8 Å, respectively), illustrating the broad applicability of the combined method. In an application to the refinement of a new crystal structure, the combined method automatically corrected a mistraced loop in a poor initial model, moving the backbone by 4 Å.

Self-dual hopfions

We construct static and time-dependent exact soliton solutions with nontrivial Hopf topological charge for a field theory in 3 + 1 dimensions with the target space being the two dimensional sphere S(2). The model considered is a reduction of the so-called extended Skyrme-Faddeev theory by the removal of the quadratic term in derivatives of the fields. The solutions are constructed using an ansatz based on the conformal and target space symmetries. The solutions are said self-dual because they solve first order differential equations which together with some conditions on the coupling constants, imply the second order equations of motion. The solutions belong to a sub-sector of the theory with an infinite number of local conserved currents. The equation for the profile function of the ansatz corresponds to the Bogomolny equation for the sine-Gordon model.

Self-dual hopfions

We construct static and time-dependent exact soliton solutions with nontrivial Hopf topological charge for a field theory in 3 + 1 dimensions with the target space being the two dimensional sphere S(2). The model considered is a reduction of the so-called extended Skyrme-Faddeev theory by the removal of the quadratic term in derivatives of the fields. The solutions are constructed using an ansatz based on the conformal and target space symmetries. The solutions are said self-dual because they solve first order differential equations which together with some conditions on the coupling constants, imply the second order equations of motion. The solutions belong to a sub-sector of the theory with an infinite number of local conserved currents. The equation for the profile function of the ansatz corresponds to the Bogomolny equation for the sine-Gordon model.

Vortices in the extended Skyrme-Faddeev model

We construct analytical and numerical vortex solutions for an extended Skyrme-Faddeev model in a (3 + 1) dimensional Minkowski space-time. The extension is obtained by adding to the Lagrangian a quartic term, which is the square of the kinetic term, and a potential which breaks the SO(3) symmetry down to SO(2). The construction makes use of an ansatz, invariant under the joint action of the internal SO(2) and three commuting U(1) subgroups of the Poincare group, and which reduces the equations of motion to an ordinary differential equation for a profile function depending on the distance to the x(3) axis. The vortices have finite energy per unit length, and have waves propagating along them with the speed of light. The analytical vortices are obtained for a special choice of potentials, and the numerical ones are constructed using the successive over relaxation method for more general potentials. The spectrum of solutions is analyzed in detail, especially its dependence upon special combinations of coupling constants.

MicroRNA Profile of Circulating CD4-positive Regulatory T Cells in Human Adults and Impact of Differentially Expressed MicroRNAs on Expression of Two Genes Essential to Their Function.

Regulatory T cells (Tregs) are characterized by a high expression of IL-2 receptor α chain (CD25) and of forkhead box P3 (FOXP3), the latter being essential for their development and function. Another major player in the regulatory function is the cytotoxic T-lymphocyte associated molecule-4 (CTLA-4) that inhibits cytotoxic responses. However, the regulation of CTLA-4 expression remains less well explored. We therefore studied the microRNA signature of circulating CD4(+) Tregs isolated from adult healthy donors and identified a signature composed of 15 differentially expressed microRNAs. Among those, miR-24, miR-145, and miR-210 were down-regulated in Tregs compared with controls and were found to have potential target sites in the 3'-UTR of FOXP3 and CTLA-4; miR-24 and miR-210 negatively regulated FOXP3 expression by directly binding to their two target sites in its 3'-UTR. On the other hand, miR-95, which is highly expressed in adult peripheral blood Tregs, positively regulated FOXP3 expression via an indirect mechanism yet to be identified. Finally, we showed that miR-145 negatively regulated CTLA-4 expression in human CD4(+) adult peripheral blood Tregs by binding to its target site in CTLA-4 transcript 3'-UTR. To our knowledge, this is the first identification of a human adult peripheral blood CD4(+) Treg microRNA signature. Moreover, unveiling one mechanism regulating CTLA-4 expression is novel and may lead to a better understanding of the regulation of this crucial gene.

Modulation of the fecal microflora profile and immune function by a novel trans-galactooligosaccharide mixture (B-GOS) in healthy elderly volunteers

Background: Aging is associated with reduced numbers of beneficial colonic bifidobacteria and impaired immunity. Galactooligosaccharides (GOSs) stimulate the growth of bifidobacteria in younger adults, but little is known about their effects in the elderly and their immunomodulatory capacity. Objective: We assessed the effect of a prebiotic GOS mixture (B-GOS) on immune function and fecal microflora composition in healthy elderly subjects. Design: In a double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover study, 44 elderly subjects were randomly assigned to receive either a placebo or the B-GOS treatment (5.5 g/d). Subjects consumed the treatments for 10 wk, and then went through a 4-wk washout period, before switching to the other treatment for the final 10 wk. Blood and fecal samples were collected at the beginning, middle (5 wk), and end of the test period. Predominant bacterial groups were quantified, and phagocytosis, natural killer (NK) cell activity, cytokine production, plasma cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol were measured. Results: B-GOS significantly increased the numbers of beneficial bacteria, especially bifidobacteria, at the expense of less beneficial groups compared with the baseline and placebo. Significant increases in phagocytosis, NK cell activity, and the production of antiinflammatory cytokine interleukin-10 (IL-10) and significant reduction in the production of proinflammatory cytokines (IL-6, IL-1 beta , and tumor necrosis factor-alpha) were also observed. B-GOS exerted no effects on total cholesterol or HDL-cholesterol production, however. Conclusions: B-GOS administration to healthy elderly persons resulted in positive effects on both the microflora composition and the immune response. Therefore, B-GOS may be a useful dietary candidate for the enhancement of gastrointestinal health and immune function in elderly persons. Am J Clin Nutr 2008; 88: 1438-46.

Improved likelihood inference for the shape parameter in Weibull regression

We obtain adjustments to the profile likelihood function in Weibull regression models with and without censoring. Specifically, we consider two different modified profile likelihoods: (i) the one proposed by Cox and Reid [Cox, D.R. and Reid, N., 1987, Parameter orthogonality and approximate conditional inference. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 49, 1-39.], and (ii) an approximation to the one proposed by Barndorff-Nielsen [Barndorff-Nielsen, O.E., 1983, On a formula for the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator. Biometrika, 70, 343-365.], the approximation having been obtained using the results by Fraser and Reid [Fraser, D.A.S. and Reid, N., 1995, Ancillaries and third-order significance. Utilitas Mathematica, 47, 33-53.] and by Fraser et al. [Fraser, D.A.S., Reid, N. and Wu, J., 1999, A simple formula for tail probabilities for frequentist and Bayesian inference. Biometrika, 86, 655-661.]. We focus on point estimation and likelihood ratio tests on the shape parameter in the class of Weibull regression models. We derive some distributional properties of the different maximum likelihood estimators and likelihood ratio tests. The numerical evidence presented in the paper favors the approximation to Barndorff-Nielsen`s adjustment.

Chemical profile of rums as a function of their origin. The use of chemometric techniques for their identification

To identify chemical descriptors to distinguish Cuban from non-Cuban rums, analyses of 44 samples of rum from 15 different countries are described. To provide the chemical descriptors, analyses of the the mineral fraction, phenolic compounds, caramel, alcohols, acetic acid, ethyl acetate, ketones, and aldehydes were carried out. The analytical data were treated through the following chemometric methods: principal component analysis (PCA), partial least square-discriminate analysis (PLS-DA), and linear discriminate analysis (LDA). These analyses indicated 23 analytes as relevant chemical descriptors for the separation of rums into two distinct groups. The possibility of clustering the rum samples investigated through PCA analysis led to an accumulative percentage of 70.4% in the first three principal components, and isoamyl alcohol, n-propyl alcohol, copper, iron, 2-furfuraldehyde (furfuraldehyde), phenylmethanal (benzaldehyde), epicatechin, and vanillin were used as chemical descriptors. By applying the PLS-DA technique to the whole set of analytical data, the following analytes have been selected as descriptors: acetone, sec-butyl alcohol, isobutyl alcohol, ethyl acetate, methanol, isoamyl alcohol, magnesium, sodium, lead, iron, manganese, copper, zinc, 4-hydroxy3,5-dimethoxybenzaldehyde (syringaldehyde), methaldehyde (formaldehyde), 5-hydroxymethyl-2furfuraldehyde (5-HMF), acetalclehyde, 2-furfuraldehyde, 2-butenal (crotonaldehyde), n-pentanal (valeraldehyde), iso-pentanal (isovaleraldehyde), benzaldehyde, 2,3-butanodione monoxime, acetylacetone, epicatechin, and vanillin. By applying the LIDA technique, a model was developed, and the following analytes were selected as descriptors: ethyl acetate, sec-butyl alcohol, n-propyl alcohol, n-butyl alcohol, isoamyl alcohol, isobutyl alcohol, caramel, catechin, vanillin, epicatechin, manganese, acetalclehyde, 4-hydroxy-3-methoxybenzoic acid, 2-butenal, 4-hydroxy-3,5-dimethoxybenzoic acid, cyclopentanone, acetone, lead, zinc, calcium, barium, strontium, and sodium. This model allowed the discrimination of Cuban rums from the others with 88.2% accuracy.

The effects of high-intensity resistance exercise on the blood lipid profile and liver function in hypercholesterolemic hamsters

It is well established that atherogenic dyslipidemia, characterized by high levels of triglycerides (TG), total cholesterol (TC), and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and low levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, constitutes important risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Regular exercise has been associated with a reduced risk for metabolic diseases. However, studies supporting the concept that resistance exercise is a modifier of blood lipid parameters are often contradictory. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of high-intensity resistance exercise on the serum levels of TG, TC, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol, glucose, and the liver function enzymes alanine aminotransferase (ALT, EC 2.6.1.2) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST, EC 2.6.1.1) in golden Syrian hamsters (Mesocricetus auratus (Waterhouse, 1839)) fed a hypercholesterolemic diet. Sedentary groups (S) and exercise groups (E) were fed a standard diet (SS and ES) or a cholesterol-enriched diet (standard plus 1% cholesterol, SC and EC). Resistance exercise was performed by jumps in the water, carrying a load strapped to the chest, representing 10 maximum repetitions (10 RM, 30 s rest, five days per week for five weeks). Mean blood sample comparisons were made by ANOVA + Tukey or ANOVA + Kruskal-Wallis tests (p < 0.05) to compare parametric and nonparametric samples, respectively. There were no differences in blood lipids between the standard diet groups (SS and ES) (p > 0.05). However, the EC group increased the glucose, non-HDL, and TC levels in comparison with the ES group. Moreover, the EC group increased the TG levels versus the SC group (p < 0.05). In addition, the ALT levels were increased only by diet treatment. These findings indicated that high-intensity resistance exercise contributed to dyslipidemia in hamsters fed a hypercholesterolemic diet, whereas liver function enzymes did not differ in regards to the exercise protocol.

Effect of Cholecalciferol as Adjunctive Therapy With Insulin on Protective Immunologic Profile and Decline of Residual beta-Cell Function in New-Onset Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus

Objective: To evaluate the effect of vitamin D-3 on cytokine levels, regulatory T cells, and residual beta-cell function decline when cholecalciferol (vitamin D-3 administered therapeutically) is given as adjunctive therapy with insulin in new-onset type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). Design and Setting: An 18-month (March 10, 2006, to October 28, 2010) randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was conducted at the Diabetes Center of Sao Paulo Federal University, Sao Paulo, Brazil. Participants: Thirty-eight patients with new-onset T1DM with fasting serum C-peptide levels greater than or equal to 0.6 ng/mL were randomly assigned to receive daily oral therapy of cholecalciferol, 2000 IU, or placebo. Main Outcome Measure: Levels of proinflammatory and anti-inflammatory cytokines, chemokines, regulatory T cells, hemoglobin A(1c), and C-peptide; body mass index; and insulin daily dose. Results: Mean (SD) chemokine ligand 2 (monocyte chemoattractant protein 1) levels were significantly higher (184.6 [101.1] vs 121.4 [55.8] pg/mL) at 12 months, as well as the increase in regulatory T-cell percentage (4.55%[1.5%] vs 3.34%[1.8%]) with cholecalciferol vs placebo. The cumulative incidence of progression to undetectable (<= 0.1 ng/mL) fasting C-peptide reached 18.7% in the cholecalciferol group and 62.5% in the placebo group; stimulated C-peptide reached 6.2% in the cholecalciferol group and 37.5% in the placebo group at 18 months. Body mass index, hemoglobin A(1c) level, and insulin requirements were similar between the 2 groups. Conclusions: Cholecalciferol used as adjunctive therapy with insulin is safe and associated with a protective immunologic effect and slow decline of residual beta-cell function in patients with new-onset T1DM. Cholecalciferol may be an interesting adjuvant in T1DM prevention trials.