The temporal price relationship between the stock index futures and the underlying stock index : evidence from Malaysia

The stock index futures was introduced in Malaysia in December 1995 with the launching of the futures contract on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Composite Index. Due to its recentness in the country, many issues pertaining to this equity derivatives instrument have not been explored. Thus, the development of stock index futures opens many opportunities for research in this area. This study examines the temporal relationship between the price of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Composite Index futures contract (FKLI) and its underlying stock index, the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Composite Index (KLSE CI). The five-year period under study is split into three subperiods to observe the price co-movement pattern under different volatility levels. The study finds that futures market tends to lead the spot market by one day during the periods of stable market, and there is a mixed lead-lag relationship between the two markets during the period of highly volatile market.

An alternative approach to investigating lead-lag relationships between stock and stock index futures markets

In the absence of market frictions, the cost-of-carry model of stock index futures pricing predicts that returns on the underlying stock index and the associated stock index futures contract will be perfectly contemporaneously correlated. Evidence suggests, however, that this prediction is violated with clear evidence that the stock index futures market leads the stock market. It is argued that traditional tests, which assume that the underlying data generating process is constant, might be prone to overstate the lead-lag relationship. Using a new test for lead-lag relationships based on cross correlations and cross bicorrelations it is found that, contrary to results from using the traditional methodology, periods where the futures market leads the cash market are few and far between and when any lead-lag relationship is detected, it does not last long. Overall, the results are consistent with the prediction of the standard cost-of-carry model and market efficiency.

New Keynesian Model Features that Can Reproduce Lead, Lag and Persistence Patterns

This paper uses a new method for describing dynamic comovement and persistence in economic time series which builds on the contemporaneous forecast error method developed in den Haan (2000). This data description method is then used to address issues in New Keynesian model performance in two ways. First, well known data patterns, such as output and inflation leads and lags and inflation persistence, are decomposed into forecast horizon components to give a more complete description of the data patterns. These results show that the well known lead and lag patterns between output and inflation arise mostly in the medium term forecasts horizons. Second, the data summary method is used to investigate a rich New Keynesian model with many modeling features to see which of these features can reproduce lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data. Many studies have suggested that a backward looking component in the Phillips curve is needed to match the data, but our simulations show this is not necessary. We show that a simple general equilibrium model with persistent IS curve shocks and persistent supply shocks can reproduce the lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data.

Mechanism-based inhibition of CYP2C8 by gemfibrozil in humans : characterisation of time and dose relationships

Drug-drug interactions may cause serious, even fatal clinical consequences. Therefore, it is important to examine the interaction potential of new chemical entities early in drug development. Mechanism-based inhibition is a pharmacokinetic interaction type, which causes irreversible loss of enzyme activity and can therefore lead to unusually profound and long-lasting consequences. The in vitro in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) of drug-drug interactions caused by mechanism-based inhibition is challenging. Consequently, many of these interactions have remained unrecognised for many years. The concomitant use of the fibrate-class lipid-lowering agent gemfibrozil increases the concentrations of some drugs and their effects markedly. Even fatal cases of rhabdomyolysis occurred in patients administering gemfibrozil and cerivastatin concomitantly. One of the main mechanisms behind this effect is the mechanism-based inhibition of the cytochrome P450 (CYP) 2C8 enzyme by a glucuronide metabolite of gemfibrozil leading to increased cerivastatin concentrations. Although the clinical use of gemfibrozil has clearly decreased during recent years, gemfibrozil is still needed in some special cases. To enable safe use of gemfibrozil concomitantly with other drugs, information concerning the time and dose relationships of CYP2C8 inhibition by gemfibrozil should be known. This work was carried out as four in vivo clinical drug-drug interaction studies to examine the time and dose relationships of the mechanism-based inhibitory effect of gemfibrozil on CYP2C8. The oral antidiabetic drug repaglinide was used as a probe drug for measuring CYP2C8 activity in healthy volunteers. In this work, mechanism-based inhibition of the CYP2C8 enzyme by gemfibrozil was found to occur rapidly in humans. The inhibitory effect developed to its maximum already when repaglinide was given 1-3 h after gemfibrozil intake. In addition, the inhibition was shown to abate slowly. A full recovery of CYP2C8 activity, as measured by repaglinide metabolism, was achieved 96 h after cessation of gemfibrozil treatment. The dose-dependency of the mechanism-based inhibition of CYP2C8 by gemfibrozil was shown for the first time in this work. CYP2C8 activity was halved by a single 30 mg dose of gemfibrozil or by twice daily administration of less than 30 mg of gemfibrozil. Furthermore, CYP2C8 activity was decreased over 90% by a single dose of 900 mg gemfibrozil or twice daily dosing of approximately 100 mg gemfibrozil. In addition, with the application of physiological models to the data obtained in the dose-dependency studies, the major role of mechanism-based inhibition of CYP2C8 in the interaction between gemfibrozil and repaglinide was confirmed. The results of this work enhance the proper use of gemfibrozil and the safety of patients. The information related to time-dependency of CYP2C8 inhibition by gemfibrozil may also give new insights in order to improve the IVIVE of the drug-drug interactions of new chemical entities. The information obtained by this work may be utilised also in the design of clinical drug-drug interaction studies in the future.

Spatial and temporal relationships between precipitation and ANPP of four types of grasslands in northern China

Precipitation is considered to be the primary resource limiting terrestrial biological activity in water-limited regions. Its overriding effect on the production of grassland is complex. In this paper, field data of 48 sites (including temperate meadow steppe,temperate steppe, temperate desert steppe and alpine meadow) were gathered from 31 published papers and monographs to analyze the relationship between above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) and precipitation by the method of regression analysis. The results indicated that there was a great difference between spatial pattern and temporal pattern by which precipitation influenced grassland ANPP. Mean annual precipitation (MAP) was the main factor determining spatial distribution of grassland ANPP (r~2 = 0.61,P ＜ 0.01); while temporally, no significant relationship was found between the variance of AN PP and inter-annual precipitation for the four types of grassland. However, after dividing annual precipitation into monthly value and taking time lag effect into account, the study found significant relationships between ANPP and precipitation. For the temperate meadow steppe, the key variable determining inter-annual change of ANPP was last August-May precipitation (r~2= 0.47, P = 0.01); for the temperate steppe, the key variable was July precipitation (r~2 = 0.36, P = 0.02); for the temperate desert steppe, the key variable was April-June precipitation (r~2 = 0.51, P ＜0.01); for the alpine meadow, the key variable was last September-May precipitation (r~2 = 0.29, P ＜ 0.05). In comparison with analogous research, the study demonstrated that the key factor determining inter-annual changes of grassland ANPP was the cumulative precipitation in certain periods of that year or the previous year.

Temporal patterns of memory source incorporations into dreams and their relationships to dreamed locus of control

Les incorporations des mémoires épisodiques dans les rêves apparaissent en formes fragmentées et suivent un modèle temporel distinct qui suit une courbe sinusoïdale. Ce modèle est caractérisé par les incorporations immédiates, qui apparaissent 1-2 jours après l’événement (effet de résidus diurnes), et les incorporations tardives, qui apparaissent 5-7 jours après l’événement (effet de délai). Ces deux effets sont considérés comme des liens entre les processus de consolidation de la mémoire et la formation du rêve. Cette courbe temporelle a été observée pour une variété de stimuli expérimentaux. Cependant, aucune étude à date n’a démontré que le contenu des rêves réagit aux événements diurnes d’une manière plus générale et non-spécifique. Le but de notre étude était d’examiner si deux événements qualitativement distincts, un séjour nocturne au laboratoire (LAB), considéré comme un événement interpersonnel, et une tâche de réalité virtuelle (RV), considérée comme un événement non-interpersonnel, sont intégrés de façon différente dans le contenu onirique. Selon nos hypothèses, 1) les éléments spécifiques liés au LAB et à RV seraient incorporés dans les rêves avec des patrons tendances temporels différents, et 2) les incorporations spécifiques seraient associées à des changements plus généraux dans le locus de contrôle (LoC) du rêve. Vingt-six participants ont passé une nuit dans le laboratoire, ont été exposé à une tâche de RV, et ont rempli un journal de rêve pendant 10 jours. Les rapports de rêve ont été cotés pour les éléments spécifiques portant sur LAB et sur RV, et pour l'évolution générale de LoC du rêve. Nos deux hypothèses ont été confirmées: 1) les incorporations de LAB et RV sont négativement corrélées et apparaissent dans le rêve selon des modèles temporels différents. Les incorporations du LAB ont suivi une courbe sinusoïdale en forme de U, avec un effet de résidu diurne et un effet de délai. Les incorporations de RV ont suivi un patron différent, et ont eu un maximum d’incorporations au jour 4. 2) les scores du LoC du rêve étaient plus externes pour le jour 1 (max incorporations du LAB) et plus internes pour le jour 4 (max incorporations de RV). Ces modèles d'incorporation distincts peuvent refléter des différences dans la façon dont les deux événements ont été traités par les processus de consolidation de la mémoire. Dans ce cas, une expérience interpersonnelle (LAB) était incorporée plus tôt dans le temps. Les résultats suggèrent que LoC du rêve reflète les processus de mémoire plus généraux, qui affectent le contenu du rêve entier, et qui sont partiellement indépendants des incorporations spécifiques.

Do governments lead or lag in fighting crime?

We examine the Granger causal relationship between police strength and a variety of different types of crime for South Australia. We find that with the exception of assault and homicide in the long run, the crime rate and police strength are neutral.

Schizophrenia Housing and Supportive Relationships

Schizophrenia can be a very disabling illness that affects between 0.5% and 1% of the population. This illness has a great personal impact on the individual sufferer, their family and friends. In addition, it makes significant demands on health services and the community in general. This paper reviews the literature on housing and supportive relationships for people with schizophrenia. The literature reports that people's experience of their schizophrenia is that it not only causes symptoms, but often impacts on their ability to maintain the basic resources in life. These resources include the ability to maintain reasonable quality housing, which seems to further impact negatively on their illness and their ability to maintain supportive social relationships. People with schizophrenia (and people in general) rely on their social relationships and family to maintain their mental health. The loss of social relationships and inability to maintain quality housing seem to be related - if people cannot maintain quality housing, they find it difficult to maintain supportive social relationships.

Geometric and force relationships for the development of a scaled model hydraulic excavator

Hydraulic excavators in the mining industry are widely used owing to the large payload capabilities these machines can achieve. However, there are very few optimisation studies for producing efficient hydraulic excavator backets. An efficient bucket can avoid unnecessary weight; greatly influence the payload and optimise the efficiency of hydraulic mining excavators. This paper presents a framework for the development of a scaled hydraulic excavator by examining the geometry and force relationships. A small hydraulic excavator was purchased and fitted with a broom scaled to a factor. Geometric and force relationships of the model were derived to assist computer instrumentation to retrieve necessary variable input for bucket design.

Points of convergence and divergence : normative, institutional and operational relationships between R2P and POC

As an international norm, the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) has gained substantial influence and institutional presence—and created no small controversy—in the ten years since its first conceptualisation. Conversely, the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict (PoC) has a longer pedigree and enjoys a less contested reputation. Yet UN Security Council action in Libya in 2011 has thrown into sharp relief the relationship between the two. UN Security Council Resolutions 1970 and 1973 follow exactly the process envisaged by R2P in response to imminent atrocity crimes, yet the operative paragraphs of the resolutions themselves invoke only PoC. This article argues that, while the agendas of PoC and R2P converge with respect to Security Council action in cases like Libya, outside this narrow context it is important to keep the two norms distinct. Peacekeepers, humanitarian actors, international lawyers, individual states and regional organisations are required to act differently with respect to the separate agendas and contexts covered by R2P and PoC. While overlap between the two does occur in highly visible cases like Libya, neither R2P nor PoC collapses normatively, institutionally or operationally into the other.

Were intercalated komatiites and dacites at the Black Swan nickel sulphide mine, Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia, emplaced as extrusive lavas or intrusive bodies? The significance of breccia textures and contact relationships

Intercalated Archean komatiites and dacites sit above a thick footwall dacite unit in the host rock succession at the Black Swan Nickel Mine, north of Kalgoorlie in the Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia. Both lithofacies occur in units that vary in scale from laterally extensive at the scale of the mine lease to localized, thin, irregular bodies, from > 100 m thick to only centimetres thick. Some dacites are only slightly altered and deformed, and are interpreted to post-date major deformation and alteration (late porphyries). However, the majority of the dacites display evidence of deformation, especially at contacts, and metamorphism, varying from silicification and chlorite alteration at contacts to pervasive low grade regional metamorphic alteration represented by common assemblages of chlorite, sericite and albite. Texturally, the dacites vary from entirely massive and coherent to partially brecciated to totally brecciated. Strangely, some dacites are coherent at the margins and brecciated internally. Breccia textures vary from cryptically defined, to blocky, closely packed, in situ jig-saw fit textures with secondary minerals in fractures between clasts, to more apparent matrix rich textures with round clast forms, giving apparent conglomerate textures. Some clast zones have multi-coloured clasts, giving the impression of varied provenance. Strangely however, all these textural variants have gradational relationships with each other, and no bedding or depositional structures are present. This indicates that all textures have an in situ origin. The komatiites are generally altered and pervasively carbonate veined. Preservation of original textures is patchy and local, but includes coarse adcumulate, mesocumulate, orthocumulate, crescumulate-harrisite and occasionally spinifex textures. Where original contacts between komatiites and dacites are preserved intact (i.e. not sheared or overprinted by alteration), the komatiites have chilled margins, whereas the dacites do not. The margins of the dacites are commonly silicified, and inclusions of dacite occur in komatiite, even at the top contacts of komatiite units, but komatiite clasts do not occur in the dacites. The komatiites therefore were emplaced as sills into the dacites, and the intercalated relationships are interpreted as intrusive. The brecciation and alteration in the dacites are interpreted as being largely due to hydraulic fracturing and alteration induced by contact metamorphic effects and hydrothermal alteration deriving from the intrusion of komatiites into the felsic pile. The absence of autobreccia and hyaloclastite textures in the dacites suggest that they were emplaced as an earlier intrusive (sill?) complex at a high level in the crust.