How do investors respond to share buyback programs? : evidence from Brazil during 2008 crisis

This paper provides empirical evidence of how effective share repurchase programs were as instruments to signal low prices during 2008 crisis in Brazil. Although we found that stock prices did not respond to buyback programs in the period 2006 to 2012 (1.65% cumulative abnormal returns after 5 days), the average stock price reaction in 2008 (2.93%) is higher and different with statistical significance. Furthermore, we found that the share price reaction from companies with market capitalization below R$10 billion is higher than the one from larger companies. In addition, we found that the response to the buyback programs is positively correlated (i) to the company’s purchasing activity after the announcement, (ii) to the maximum amount of shares announced which can be bought and (iii) to the quantity actually bought during the program. This research is unique in providing empirical evidence on the Brazilian case by analyzing 377 programs announced during that period. The research also confirms that the stock reaction is not influenced by the company's purchasing activity in prior announcements.

Price discovery in dual-class shares across multiple markets

We extend the standard price discovery analysis to estimate the information share of dual-class shares across domestic and foreign markets. By examining both common and preferred shares, we aim to extract information not only about the fundamental value of the rm, but also about the dual-class premium. In particular, our interest lies on the price discovery mechanism regulating the prices of common and preferred shares in the BM&FBovespa as well as the prices of their ADR counterparts in the NYSE and in the Arca platform. However, in the presence of contemporaneous correlation between the innovations, the standard information share measure depends heavily on the ordering we attribute to prices in the system. To remain agnostic about which are the leading share class and market, one could for instance compute some weighted average information share across all possible orderings. This is extremely inconvenient given that we are dealing with 2 share prices in Brazil, 4 share prices in the US, plus the exchange rate (and hence over 5,000 permutations!). We thus develop a novel methodology to carry out price discovery analyses that does not impose any ex-ante assumption about which share class or trading platform conveys more information about shocks in the fundamental price. As such, our procedure yields a single measure of information share, which is invariant to the ordering of the variables in the system. Simulations of a simple market microstructure model show that our information share estimator works pretty well in practice. We then employ transactions data to study price discovery in two dual-class Brazilian stocks and their ADRs. We uncover two interesting ndings. First, the foreign market is at least as informative as the home market. Second, shocks in the dual-class premium entail a permanent e ect in normal times, but transitory in periods of nancial distress. We argue that the latter is consistent with the expropriation of preferred shareholders as a class.

Predictability Of Share Prices In India: A Study Of The Applicability Of Technical Analysis

In spite of the far longed practices of technical analysis by many participants in Indian stock market, none have arrived at the exact position of technical analysis as a tool for foretelling share prices. There is no evidence supporting that one has established its definite role in predicting the behaviour of share price and also to see the extent of validity (how far reliable) of technical tools in Indian stock market. The problem is the vacuum in the arena of securities market analysis where an unrecognised tool is practised, i.e., whether to hold on to technical analysis or to drop it. Again, as already stated in this chapter, its validity need not continue forever. It may become futile as happened in developed markets. Continuous practice of a tool, which is valid only during discontinuous times is also an error. The efficacy of different market phenomena in terms of their ability to foretell the extent and direction of the price movements and reliability thereof remain as not yet proved in. This requires further study in this area so that this controversy may be settled. A solution to the problem requires enquiring and establishing the applicability of technical analysis, if any, there is in the Indian stock market. The study has the following two broad objectives for the purpose of confirming the applicability, if any, of technical analysis in the Indian stock market. The first objective is to ascertain the current validity of ‘traditional holding with respect to patterns’ and the second objective is to ascertain the ‘consistent superiority’, if any, of technical indicators over non-signal strategies in return generation. The study analyses the five patterns, which are widely known and commonly found in publications. They are: (1) Symmetrical Triangles, (2) Rising Wedges, (3) Falling Wedges, (4) Head and Shoulders Top and (5) Head and Shoulders Bottom.

Does managerial turnover affect football club share prices?

This paper analyses the 53 managerial sackings and resignations from 16 stock exchange listed English football clubs during the nine seasons between 2000/01 and 2008/09. The results demonstrate that, on average, a managerial sacking results in a post-announcement day market-adjusted share price rise of 0.3%, whilst a resignation leads to a drop in share price of 1% that continues for a trading month thereafter, cumulating in a negative abnormal return of over 8% from a trading day before the event. These findings are intuitive, and suggest that sacking a poorly performing manager may be welcomed by the markets as a possible route to better future match performance, while losing a capable manager through resignation, who typically progresses to a superior job, will result in a drop in a club’s share price. The paper also reveals that while the impact of managerial departures on stock price volatilities is less clear-cut, speculation in the newspapers is rife in the build-up to such an event.

Secondary stakeholders as agents of influence: Three essays on political risk, reputation, and multinational performance

Organizational researchers have recently taken an interest in the ways in which social movements, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and other secondary stakeholders attempt to influence corporate behavior. Scholars, however, have yet to carefully probe the link between secondary stakeholder legal action and target firm stock market performance. This is puzzling given the sharp rise in NGO-initiated civil lawsuits against corporations in recent years for alleged overseas human rights abuses and environmental misconduct. Furthermore, few studies have considered how such lawsuits impact a target firm’s intangible assets, namely its image and reputation. Structured in the form of three essays, this dissertation examined the antecedents and consequences of secondary stakeholder legal activism in both conceptual and empirical settings. ^ Essay One argued that conventional approaches to understanding political risk fail to account for the reputational risks to multinational enterprises (MNEs) posed by transnational networks of human rights NGOs employing litigation-based strategies. It offered a new framework for understanding this emerging challenge to multinational corporate activity. Essay Two empirically tested the relationship between the filing of human rights-related civil lawsuits and corporate stock market performance using an event study methodology and regression analysis. The statistical analysis performed showed that target firms experience a significant decline in share price upon filing and that both industry and nature of the lawsuit are significantly and negatively related to shareholder wealth. Essay Three drew upon social movement and social identity theories to develop and test a set of hypotheses on how secondary stakeholder groups select their targets for human rights-related civil lawsuits. The results of a logistic regression model offered support for the proposition that MNE targets are chosen based on both interest and identity factors. The results of these essays suggest that legal action initiated by secondary stakeholder groups is a new and salient threat to multinational business and that firms doing business in countries with weak political institutions should factor this into corporate planning and take steps to mitigate their exposure to such risks.^

Price transmission dynamics between ADRs and their underlying foreign security: The case of Banco de Colombia S.A.- Bancolombia.

This paper analyzes the dynamics ofthe American Depositary Receipt (ADR) of a Colombian bank (Bancolombia) in relation to its pricing factors (underlying (preferred) shares price, exchange rate and the US market index). The aim is to test if there is a long-term relation among these variables that would imply predictability. One cointegrating relation is found allowing the use of a vector error correction model to examine the transmission of shocks to the underlying prices, the exchange rate, and the US market index. The main finding of this paper is that in the short run, the underlying share price seems to adjust after changes in the ADR price, pointing to the fact that the NYSE (trading market for the ADR) leads the Colombian market. However, in the long run, both, the underlying share price and the ADR price, adjust to changes in one another.

Caracterización y determinación del proceso para la producción de cal comercial a partir de la piedra caliza

La cal es un material producido a partir de la calcinación de la roca caliza y tiene diversas utilidades en el mundo de la industria como la siderúrgica, papelera, alimentaria, en la construcción, entre otras. Es fundamental conocer todas las características de la caliza para poder determinar su grado de calcinación. Con el presente trabajo se pretende estudiar las propiedades de la caliza para su posterior calcinación y el dimensionamiento de una planta de producción de cal desde que el mineral llega de la explotación hasta que sale al mercado. Para determinar los equipos se calcularon sus dimensiones para una producción de 600 t/h de cal, sabiendo que la planta principal de machaqueo solo trabajará 5 días de la semana en jornadas de 8 horas, mientras que a partir del horno de calcinación estará en funcionamiento los 7 días de la semana, 24 horas al día. A partir de esas consideraciones se obtienen las dimensiones de todos los equipos y se realiza un estudio para la elección de un horno, o un horno de eje vertical y un horno rotativo, así como el combustible empleado, ya que es una parte fundamental para determinar los costes para la producción de cal. También fue objeto de este trabajo, el estudio ambiental de la instalación de la planta, en función de la mezcla de combustible empleada y del impacto en el entorno de la misma, así como un estudio de viabilidad de la planta, estimando unos costes de la misma y un precio de mercado “ex‐Works”.

Caracterización y determinación del proceso para la producción de cal comercial a partir de la piedra caliza

La cal es un material producido a partir de la calcinación de la roca caliza y tiene diversas utilidades en el mundo de la industria como la siderúrgica, papelera, alimentaria, en la construcción, entre otras. Es fundamental conocer todas las características de la caliza para poder determinar su grado de calcinación. Con el presente trabajo se pretende estudiar las propriedades de la caliza para su posterior calcinación y el dimensionamento de una planta de producción de cal desde que el mineral llega de la explotación hasta que sale al mercado.Para determinar los equipos se calularon sus dimensiones para una producción de 600 t/h de cal, sabiendo que la planta principal de machaquero solo trabajará 5 días de la semana en jornadas de 8 horas, mientras que a partir del horno de calcinación estará en funcionamento los 7 dias de la semana, 24 horas al día. A partir de esas consideraciones se obtienen las dimensiones de todos los equipos y se realiza un estudio para la elección de un horno, o un horno de eje vertical y un horno rotativo, así como el combustible empleado, ya que es una parte fundamental para determinar los costes para la producción de cal.Tmbién fue objeto de este trabajo, el estudio ambiental de la instalación de la planta, en función de la mezcla de combustible empleada y del impacto en el entorno de la lisma, así como un estudio de viabilidad de la planta, estimando unos costes de la misma y un precio de mercado "ex Works".

Auto industry bailout: too big to fail. To big for whom?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Econet wireless Zimbawe Limited: Building the future

In February 2015, when Econet Wireless Zimbabwe Limited, EWZL, the market leader of the telecommunications sector in Zimbabwe, published the financial results, the management team was worried about the shareholders’ reaction. With over 60% market share in its core business (the voice and SMS market), it has achieved remarkable results due to the great diversification strategy. However, the share price was continuously falling due to exogenous factors that were pressuring margins and threatening future sustainability of the company. EWZL was highly exposed to Zimbabwe’s specific risks and regulatory policies. This case explores both the business environment surrounding the company and the strategic decisions necessary to fight against the economic and political challenges. Students will step into Econet’s obstacles by analyzing the strategies and diagnosing the multiple risk factors affecting the profitability of the firm. Furthermore, they will have to compute the valuation of the firm, facing several challenges of a developing country.

BRISA’S takeover offer

This project is composed by a Case Study regarding Tagus’ takeover offer for Brisa. The case study describes each player involved in the operation: the target company – Brisa, the acquirers – José de Mello and Arcus; as well as the circumstances surrounding the takeover, with a description of the takeover itself and the conflict between the acquirers and Abertis. Associated to the case, there is a group of six question and their respective answers, regarding the motive of the takeover, the price per share, what should be the positions of Brisa’s shareholders regarding the takeover and the reason Brisa’s share price declined after the success of the operation.

Moral hazard and dynamics of insider ownership stakes

In this paper, I analyze the ownership dynamics of N strategic risk-averse corporate insiders facing a moral hazard problem. A solution for the equilibrium share price and the dynamics of the aggregate insider stake is obtained in two cases: when agents can crediblycommit to an optimal ownership policy and when they cannot commit (time-consistent case). Inthe latter case, the aggregate stake gradually adjusts towards the competitive allocation. The speed of adjustment increases with N when outside investors are risk-averse, and does not depend on it when investors are risk-neutral. Predictions of the model are consistent with recent empirical findings.