Implementing a double dividend: recycling ecotaxes towards lower labour taxes

In this paper we follow the tradition of applied general equilibrium modelling of the Walrasian static variety to study the empirical viability of a double dividend (green, welfare, and employment) in the Spanish economy. We consider a counterfactual scenario in which an ecotax is levied on the intermediate and final use of energy goods. Under a revenue neutral assumption, we evaluate the real income and employment impact of lowering payroll taxes. To appraise to what extent the model structure and behavioural assumptions may influence the results, we perform simulations under a range of alternative model and policy scenarios. We conclude that a double dividend –better environmental quality, as measured by reduced CO2 emissions, and improved levels of employment– may be an achievable goal of economic policy.

Water deprivation and the double- depletion hypothesis: common neural mechanisms underlie thirst and salt appetite

Water deprivation-induced thirst is explained by the double-depletion hypothesis, which predicts that dehydration of the two major body fluid compartments, the extracellular and intracellular compartments, activates signals that combine centrally to induce water intake. However, sodium appetite is also elicited by water deprivation. In this brief review, we stress the importance of the water-depletion and partial extracellular fluid-repletion protocol which permits the distinction between sodium appetite and thirst. Consistent enhancement or a de novo production of sodium intake induced by deactivation of inhibitory nuclei (e.g., lateral parabrachial nucleus) or hormones (oxytocin, atrial natriuretic peptide), in water-deprived, extracellular-dehydrated or, contrary to tradition, intracellular-dehydrated rats, suggests that sodium appetite and thirst share more mechanisms than previously thought. Water deprivation has physiological and health effects in humans that might be related to the salt craving shown by our species.

Water deprivation and the double- depletion hypothesis: common neural mechanisms underlie thirst and salt appetite

Water deprivation-induced thirst is explained by the double-depletion hypothesis, which predicts that dehydration of the two major body fluid compartments, the extracellular and intracellular compartments, activates signals that combine centrally to induce water intake. However, sodium appetite is also elicited by water deprivation. In this brief review, we stress the importance of the water-depletion and partial extracellular fluid-repletion protocol which permits the distinction between sodium appetite and thirst. Consistent enhancement or a de novo production of sodium intake induced by deactivation of inhibitory nuclei (e.g., lateral parabrachial nucleus) or hormones (oxytocin, atrial natriuretic peptide), in water-deprived, extracellular-dehydrated or, contrary to tradition, intracellular-dehydrated rats, suggests that sodium appetite and thirst share more mechanisms than previously thought. Water deprivation has physiological and health effects in humans that might be related to the salt craving shown by our species.

Growth and Euro Area Stability: The Double Dividend of a Deepened European Single Market for Services. Bertelsmann Stiftung Background Note 26 June 2015

The European Commission’s recent single market initiatives have a second important benefit beyond growth that is often overlooked: Deepening the Single Market for goods and services can also reduce imbalances in the euro area and limit its vulnerability to crises. A further integration of the Single Market thus provides a double dividend of growth and stability. This is the main issue addressed in this background note.

Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

Securing EU growth from services. CEPS Special Report No. 67, October 2012

This report explores the untapped growth that could result from the better functioning of services markets in the EU and aims to bridge the gap between the policy debate and the latest empirical economic analysis in this field. The authors find ample scope for further economic growth in the EU, both from the reform of domestic services and from the deepening of the ‘single services market’. Domestic and EU-level services reforms are so intertwined economically that indeed we may speak of a ‘double dividend’ and, for the eurozone, a ‘triple dividend’.

Estrategias innovadoras para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas ganaderos extensivos

La vulnerabilidad de los sistemas ganaderos de pastoreo pone en evidencia la necesidad de herramientas para evaluar y mitigar los efectos de la sequía. El avance en la teledetección ha despertado el interés por explotar potenciales aplicaciones, y está dando lugar a un intenso desarrollo de innovaciones en distintos campos. Una de estas áreas es la gestión del riesgo climático, en donde la utilización de índices de vegetación permite la evaluación de la sequía. En esta investigación, se analiza el impacto de la sequía y se evalúa el potencial de nuevas tecnologías como la teledetección para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas de ganadería extensiva. Para ello, se desarrollan tres aplicaciones: (i) evaluar el impacto económico de la sequía en una explotación ganadera extensiva de la dehesa de Andalucía, (ii) elaborar mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequía en pastos de Chile y (iii) diseñar y evaluar el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. En la primera aplicación, se diseña un modelo dinámico y estocástico que integra aspectos climáticos, ecológicos, agronómicos y socioeconómicos para evaluar el riesgo de sequía. El modelo simula una explotación ganadera tipo de la dehesa de Andalucía para el período 1999-2010. El método de Análisis Histórico y la simulación de MonteCarlo se utilizan para identificar los principales factores de riesgo de la explotación, entre los que destacan, los periodos de inicios del verano e inicios de invierno. Los resultados muestran la existencia de un desfase temporal entre el riesgo climático y riesgo económico, teniendo este último un periodo de duración más extenso en el tiempo. También, revelan que la intensidad, frecuencia y duración son tres atributos cruciales que determinan el impacto económico de la sequía. La estrategia de reducción de la carga ganadera permite aminorar el riesgo, pero conlleva una disminución en el margen bruto de la explotación. La segunda aplicación está dedicada a la elaboración de mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequia en pastos de Chile. Para ello, se propone y desarrolla un índice de riesgo económico (IRESP) sencillo de interpretar y replicable, que integra factores de riesgo y estrategias de adaptación para obtener una medida del Valor en Riesgo, es decir, la máxima pérdida esperada en un año con un nivel de significación del 5%.La representación espacial del IRESP pone en evidencia patrones espaciales y diferencias significativas en la vulnerabilidad a la sequía a lo largo de Chile. Además, refleja que la vulnerabilidad no siempre esta correlacionada con el riesgo climático y demuestra la importancia de considerar las estrategias de adaptación. Las medidas de autocorrelación espacial revelan que el riesgo sistémico es considerablemente mayor en el sur que en el resto de zonas. Los resultados demuestran que el IRESP transmite información pertinente y, que los mapas de vulnerabilidad pueden ser una herramienta útil en el diseño de políticas y toma de decisiones para la gestión del riesgo de sequía. La tercera aplicación evalúa el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. Para lo cual, se desarrolla un modelo estocástico para estimar la prima actuarialmente justa del seguro y se proponen y evalúan pautas alternativas para mejorar el diseño del contrato. Se aborda el riesgo base, el principal problema de los seguros indexados identificado en la literatura y, que está referido a la correlación imperfecta del índice con las pérdidas de la explotación. Para ello, se sigue un enfoque bayesiano que permite evaluar el impacto en el riesgo base de las pautas de diseño propuestas: i) una zonificación por clúster que considera aspectos espacio-temporales, ii) un período de garantía acotado a los ciclos fenológicos del pasto y iii) umbral de garantía. Los resultados muestran que tanto la zonificación como el periodo de garantía reducen el riesgo base considerablemente. Sin embargo, el umbral de garantía tiene un efecto ambiguo sobre el riesgo base. Por otra parte, la zonificación por clúster contribuye a aminorar el riesgo sistémico que enfrentan las aseguradoras. Estos resultados han puesto de manifiesto que un buen diseño de contrato puede tener un doble dividendo, por un lado aumentar su utilidad y, por otro, reducir el coste del seguro. Un diseño de contrato eficiente junto con los avances en la teledetección y un adecuado marco institucional son los pilares básicos para el buen funcionamiento de un programa de seguro. Las nuevas tecnologías ofrecen un importante potencial para la innovación en la gestión del riesgo climático. Los avances en este campo pueden proporcionar importantes beneficios sociales en los países en desarrollo y regiones vulnerables, donde las herramientas para gestionar eficazmente los riesgos sistémicos como la sequía pueden ser de gran ayuda para el desarrollo. The vulnerability of grazing livestock systems highlights the need for tools to assess and mitigate the adverse impact of drought. The recent and rapid progress in remote sensing has awakened an interest for tapping into potential applications, triggering intensive efforts to develop innovations in a number of spheres. One of these areas is climate risk management, where the use of vegetation indices facilitates assessment of drought. This research analyzes drought impacts and evaluates the potential of new technologies such as remote sensing to manage drought risk in extensive livestock systems. Three essays in drought risk management are developed to: (i) assess the economic impact of drought on a livestock farm in the Andalusian Dehesa, (ii) build drought vulnerability maps in Chilean grazing lands, and (iii) design and evaluate the potential of an index insurance policy to address the risk of drought in grazing lands in Coquimbo, Chile. In the first essay, a dynamic and stochastic farm model is designed combining climate, agronomic, socio-economic and ecological aspects to assess drought risk. The model is developed to simulate a representative livestock farm in the Dehesa of Andalusia for the time period 1999-2010. Burn analysis and MonteCarlo simulation methods are used to identify the significance of various risk sources at the farm. Most notably, early summer and early winter are identified as periods of peak risk. Moreover, there is a significant time lag between climate and economic risk and this later last longer than the former. It is shown that intensity, frequency and duration of the drought are three crucial attributes that shape the economic impact of drought. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the sustainability of farm management strategies and demonstrates that lowering the stocking rate reduces farmer exposure to drought risk but entails a reduction in the expected gross margin. The second essay, mapping drought vulnerability in Chilean grazing lands, proposes and builds an index of economic risk (IRESP) that is replicable and simple to interpret. This methodology integrates risk factors and adaptation strategies to deliver information on Value at Risk, maximum expected losses at 5% significance level. Mapping IRESP provides evidence about spatial patterns and significant differences in drought vulnerability across Chilean grazing lands. Spatial autocorrelation measures reveal that systemic risk is considerably larger in the South as compared to Northern or Central Regions. Furthermore, it is shown that vulnerability is not necessarily correlated with climate risk and that adaptation strategies do matter. These results show that IRESP conveys relevant information and that vulnerability maps may be useful tools to assess policy design and decision-making in drought risk management. The third essay develops a stochastic model to estimate the actuarially fair premium and evaluates the potential of an indexed insurance policy to manage drought risk in Coquimbo, a relevant livestock farming region of Chile. Basis risk refers to the imperfect correlation of the index and farmer loses and is identified in the literature as a main limitation of index insurance. A Bayesian approach is proposed to assess the impact on basis risk of alternative guidelines in contract design: i) A cluster zoning that considers space-time aspects, ii) A guarantee period bounded to fit phenological cycles, and iii) the triggering index threshold. Results show that both the proposed zoning and guarantee period considerably reduces basis risk. However, the triggering index threshold has an ambiguous effect on basis risk. On the other hand, cluster zoning contributes to ameliorate systemic risk faced by the insurer. These results highlighted that adequate contract design is important and may result in double dividend. On the one hand, increasing farmers’ utility and, secondly, reducing the cost of insurance. An efficient contract design coupled with advances in remote sensing and an appropriate institutional framework are the basis for an efficient operation of an insurance program. The new technologies offer significant potential for innovation in climate risk managements. Progress in this field is capturing increasing attention and may provide important social gains in developing countries and vulnerable regions where the tools to efficiently manage systemic risks, such as drought, may be a means to foster development.

Cover crops effect on farm benefits and nitrate leaching: Linking economic and environmental analysis.

Introducing cover crops (CC) interspersed with intensively fertilized crops in rotation has the potential to reduce nitrate leaching. This paper evaluates various strategies involving CC between maize and compares the economic and environmental results with respect to a typical maize?fallow rotation. The comparison is performed through stochastic (Monte-Carlo) simulation models of farms? profits using probability distribution functions (pdfs) of yield and N fertilizer saving fitted with data collected from various field trials and pdfs of crop prices and the cost of fertilizer fitted from statistical sources. Stochastic dominance relationships are obtained to rank the most profitable strategies from a farm financial perspective. A two-criterion comparison scheme is proposed to rank alternative strategies based on farm profit and nitrate leaching levels, taking the baseline scenario as the maize?fallow rotation. The results show that when CC biomass is sold as forage instead of keeping it in the soil, greater profit and less leaching of nitrates are achieved than in the baseline scenario. While the fertilizer saving will be lower if CC is sold than if it is kept in the soil, the revenue obtained from the sale of the CC compensates for the reduced fertilizer savings. The results show that CC would perhaps provide a double dividend of greater profit and reduced nitrate leaching in intensive irrigated cropping systems in Mediterranean regions.

*Adoption status: A risk factor or protective factor for children of divorced families

This study examined two competitive hypotheses: the double jeopardy hypothesis and the buffering effect hypothesis on whether parental divorce affects adopted children and non-adopted children similarly or differently. The double jeopardy hypothesis suggests that when adopted children experience their parents' divorce, they perform worse because they carry two risk factors, adoption status and parental divorce, while their non-adopted counterparts carry only the risk factor of their parents' divorce. The buffering effect hypothesis suggests that, being adopted children, their previous experiences of parental loss help them better deal with the later loss of their parents' divorce so their adoption status is a protective factor rather than a risk factor. ^ Secondary analyses of a nation-wide data set were executed using different statistical methods such as ANOVA and Chi-square on different outcome variables. The results indicated that there was no evidence supporting the double-jeopardy hypothesis. That is, adopted children from divorced families did not perform significantly worse than the non-adopted children from divorced families on any outcome variable. The results also indicated that there was only weak evidence supporting the buffering effect hypothesis. The general conclusion based on the results from most of the outcome variables suggest that adopted children from divorced families do not perform differently than the biological children from divorced families. ^

Double-helicity dependence of jet properties from dihadrons in longitudinally polarized p plus p collisions at root s=200 GeV

It has been postulated that partonic orbital angular momentum can lead to a significant double-helicity dependence in the net transverse momentum of Drell-Yan dileptons produced in longitudinally polarized p + p collisions. Analogous effects are also expected for dijet production. If confirmed by experiment, this hypothesis, which is based on semiclassical arguments, could lead to a new approach for studying the contributions of orbital angular momentum to the proton spin. We report the first measurement of the double-helicity dependence of the dijet transverse momentum in longitudinally polarized p + p collisions at root s = 200 GeV from data taken by the PHENIX experiment in 2005 and 2006. The analysis deduces the transverse momentum of the dijet from the widths of the near-and far-side peaks in the azimuthal correlation of the dihadrons. When averaged over the transverse momentum of the triggered particle, the difference of the root mean square of the dijet transverse momentum between like-and unlike-helicity collisions is found to be -37 +/- 88(stat) +/- 14(sys)t MeV/c.

Effectiveness of local anaesthetics with and without vasoconstrictors for perineal repair during spontaneous delivery: Double-blind randomised controlled trial

Objective: to investigate the use of local anaesthetics, in the presence or absence of vasoconstrictors, for perineal repair during spontaneous delivery. Design: double-blind, randomised-controlled trial. Setting: a birth centre, in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Participants: from June to December 2004, a total of 96 women were allocated into three groups (first-degree perineal lacerations, second-degree perineal lacerations or episiotomy), and treated with local anaesthesia (1% lidocaine or 1% lidocaine with epinephrine) (n = 16 per treatment per group). Interventions: an initial local infiltration of the anaesthetic solution was given so that episiotomy could be carried out (5 ml) and to suture spontaneous lacerations (1 ml), followed by repeated doses (1 ml) until pain was completely inhibited. Measurements and findings: the main outcome measurement was the volume of anaesthetic used during episiotomy and perineal suture. Our data suggest that the concomitant use of the vasoconstrictor resulted in a significantly lower average volume used in the treatment of first-degree (1 ml, 95% confidence interval (0) 0.4-1.6) and second-degree (3.7 ml, 95% CI 1.6-5.8) lacerations (p = 0.002 and 0.001, respectively). A 0.3 ml (95% CI 1.5-2.1) average decrease in anaesthetic volume was observed with episiotomy (p = 0.724). The maximum volume of anaesthetic used with and without vasoconstrictor was 1-2 ml in 95% and 3-4 ml in 50% of first-degree lacerations, respectively, and 1-6 ml in 88% and 7-15 ml in 81% of second-degree lacerations, respectively. For episiotomy, the maximum dose was 15 ml, regardless of anaesthetic solution used. Key conclusions: our data confirm the hypothesis that the use of anaesthetics in conjunction with vasoconstrictors is more effective than anaesthetics alone in the repair of perineal lacerations, but not for episiotomy. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multicenter double blind trial of autologous bone marrow mononuclear cell transplantation through intracoronary injection post acute myocardium infarction - MiHeart/AMI study

Background: Myocardial infarction remains as a major cause of mortality worldwide and a high rate of survivors develop heart failure as a sequel, resulting in a high morbidity and elevated expenditures for health system resources. We have designed a multicenter trial to test for the efficacy of autologous bone marrow (ABM) mononuclear cell (MC) transplantation in this subgroup of patients. The main hypothesis to be tested is that treated patients will have a significantly higher ejection fraction (EF) improvement after 6 months than controls. Methods: A sample of 300 patients admitted with ST elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEMI) and left ventricle (LV) systolic dysfunction, and submitted to successful mechanical or chemical recanalization of the infarct-related coronary artery will be selected for inclusion and randomized to either treated or control group in a double blind manner. The former group will receive 100 x 106 MC suspended in saline with 5% autologous serum in the culprit vessel, while the latter will receive placebo (saline with 5% autologous serum). Implications: Many phase I/II clinical trials using cell therapy for STEMI have been reported, demonstrating that cell transplantation is safe and may lead to better preserved LV function. Patients with high risk to develop systolic dysfunction have the potential to benefit more. Larger randomized, double blind and controlled trials to test for the efficacy of cell therapies in patients with high risk for developing heart failure are required.

Lack of effects of clomipramine on Fos and NADPH-diaphorase double-staining in the periaqueductal gray after exposure to an innate fear stimulus

Lack of effects of clomipramine on Fos and NADPH-diaphorase double-staining in the periaqueductal gray after exposure to an innate fear stimulus - nitric oxide (NO) acts as a neurotransmitter in the rat dorsolateral periaqueductal gray (dIPAG), a midbrain structure that modulates fear and defensive behavior. Since defensive reactions can be alleviated by anxiolytic/anti-panic drugs, the present study tested the effect of clomipramine, a serotonin re-uptake inhibitor, on the activation of NO-producing neurons in the dlPAG of rats exposed to a live predator. Double staining was performed using Fos immunohistochemistry and NADPH-diaphorase as techniques to mark neural activation and to detect NO-producing neurons, respectively. Male Wistar rats received acute or chronic (21 days) injections of saline or clomipramine (10 or 20 mg/kg/day) and were exposed to a live cat. The animals exhibited a robust defensive reaction accompanied by an increase in the number of Fos- and doublestained neurons in the dlPAG, suggesting that cat exposure activates NO-producing neurons. Such effects were not significantly attenuated by clomipramine treatments. The intensity of fear reaction correlated with the intensity of neural staining in the dlPAG, regardless the drug treatment. Thus, the present results reinforce the hypothesis that NO may coordinate defensive responses in the dIPAG and indicate that this mechanism may not be modulated by a serotonin re-uptake inhibitor. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A new presynchronization system (Double-Ovsynch) increases fertility at first postpartum timed AI in lactating dairy cows

This study evaluated a novel presynchronization method, using Ovsynch prior to the Ovsynch-timed AI protocol (Double-Ovsynch) compared to Presynch-Ovsynch. Lactating Holstein (n = 337) cows, were assigned to two treatment groups: (1) Presynch (n = 180), two injections of PGF 14 d apart, followed by the Ovsynch-timed AI protocol 12 d later; (2) Double-Ovsynch (n = 157), received GnRH, PGF 7 d later, and GnRH 3 d later, followed by the Ovsynch-timed AI protocol 7 d later. All cows received the same Ovsynch-timed AI protocol: GnRH (G1) at 68 +/- 3 DIM (mean +/- SEM), PGF 7 d later, GnRH (G2) 56 h after PGF, and AI 16 to 20 h later. Pregnancy was diagnosed 39-45 d after timed AI. Double-Ovsynch increased the pregnancies per AI (P/AI) compared to Presynch-Ovsynch (49.7% vs 41.7%, P = 0.03). Surprisingly, Double-Ovsynch increased P/AI only in primiparous (65.2% vs 45.2%; P = 0.02) and not multiparous (37.5% vs 39.3%) cows. In a subset of 87 cows, ovarian ultrasonography and progesterone (P4) measurements were performed at G1 and 7 d later. Double-Ovsynch decreased the percentage of cows with low P4 (<1 ng/mL) at G1 (9.4% vs 33.3%) and increased the percentage of cows with high P4 (>= 3 ng/mL) at PGF (78.1% vs 52.3%). Thus, presynchronization of cows with Double-Ovsynch increased fertility in primiparous cows compared to a standard Presynch protocol, perhaps due to induction of ovulation in non-cycling cows and improved synchronization of cycling cows. Future studies are needed, with a larger number of cows, to further test the hypothesis of higher fertility with Double-Ovsynch, and to elucidate the physiological mechanisms that underlie apparent changes in fertility with this protocol. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.