981 resultados para causal mechanisms
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Few studies have investigated causal pathways linking psychosocial factors to each other and to screening mammography. Conflicting hypotheses exist in the theoretic literature regarding the role and importance of subjective norms, a person's perceived social pressure to perform the behavior and his/her motivation to comply. The Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) hypothesizes that subjective norms directly affect intention; while the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) hypothesizes that attitudes mediate the influence of subjective norms on stage of change. No one has examined which hypothesis best predicts the effect of subjective norms on mammography intention and stage of change. Two statistical methods are available for testing mediation, sequential regression analysis (SRA) and latent variable structural equation modeling (LVSEM); however, software to apply LVSEM to dichotomous variables like intention has only recently become available. No one has compared the methods to determine whether or not they yield similar results for dichotomous variables. ^ Study objectives were to: (1) determine whether the effect of subjective norms on mammography intention and stage of change are mediated by pros and cons; and (2) compare mediation results from the SRA and LVSEM approaches when the outcome is dichotomous. We conducted a secondary analysis of data from a national sample of women veterans enrolled in Project H.O.M.E. (H&barbelow;ealthy O&barbelow;utlook on the M&barbelow;ammography E&barbelow;xperience), a behavioral intervention trial. ^ Results showed that the TTM model described the causal pathways better than the TRA one; however, we found support for only one of the TTM causal mechanisms. Cons was the sole mediator. The mediated effect of subjective norms on intention and stage of change by cons was very small. These findings suggest that interventionists focus their efforts on reducing negative attitudes toward mammography when resources are limited. ^ Both the SRA and LVSEM methods provided evidence for complete mediation, and the direction, magnitude, and standard errors of the parameter estimates were very similar. Because SRA parameter estimates were not biased toward the null, we can probably assume negligible measurement error in the independent and mediator variables. Simulation studies are needed to further our understanding of how these two methods perform under different data conditions. ^
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It is important to examine the nature of the relationships between roadway, environmental, and traffic factors and motor vehicle crashes, with the aim to improve the collective understanding of causal mechanisms involved in crashes and to better predict their occurrence. Statistical models of motor vehicle crashes are one path of inquiry often used to gain these initial insights. Recent efforts have focused on the estimation of negative binomial and Poisson regression models (and related deviants) due to their relatively good fit to crash data. Of course analysts constantly seek methods that offer greater consistency with the data generating mechanism (motor vehicle crashes in this case), provide better statistical fit, and provide insight into data structure that was previously unavailable. One such opportunity exists with some types of crash data, in particular crash-level data that are collected across roadway segments, intersections, etc. It is argued in this paper that some crash data possess hierarchical structure that has not routinely been exploited. This paper describes the application of binomial multilevel models of crash types using 548 motor vehicle crashes collected from 91 two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia. Crash prediction models are estimated for angle, rear-end, and sideswipe (both same direction and opposite direction) crashes. The contributions of the paper are the realization of hierarchical data structure and the application of a theoretically appealing and suitable analysis approach for multilevel data, yielding insights into intersection-related crashes by crash type.
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Goals of work: The aim of this secondary data analysis was to investigate symptom clusters over time for symptom management of a patient group after commencing adjuvant chemotherapy. Materials and methods: A prospective longitudinal study of 219 cancer outpatients conducted within 1 month of commencing chemotherapy (T1), 6 months (T2), and 12 months (T3) later. Patients' distress levels were assessed for 42 physical symptoms on a clinician-modified Rotterdam Symptom Checklist. Symptom clusters were identified in exploratory factor analyses at each time. Symptom inclusion in clusters was determined from structure coefficients. Symptoms could be associated with multiple clusters. Stability over time was determined from symptom cluster composition and the proportion of symptoms in the initial symptom clusters replicated at later times. Main results Fatigue and daytime sleepiness were the most prevalent distressing symptoms over time. The median number of concurrent distressing symptoms approximated 7, over time. Five consistent clusters were identified at T1, 2, and T3. An additional two clusters were identified at 12 months, possibly due to less variation in distress levels. Weakness and fatigue were each associated with two, four, and five symptom clusters at T1, T2, and T3, respectively, potentially suggesting different causal mechanisms. Conclusion: Stability is a necessary attribute of symptom clusters, but definitional clarification is required. We propose that a core set of concurrent symptoms identifies each symptom cluster, signifying a common cause. Additional related symptoms may be included over time. Further longitudinal investigation is required to identify symptom clusters and the underlying causes.
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Measuring the business value that Internet technologies deliver for organisations has proven to be a difficult and elusive task, given their complexity and increased embeddedness within the value chain. Yet, despite the lack of empirical evidence that links the adoption of Information Technology (IT) with increased financial performance, many organisations continue to adopt new technologies at a rapid rate. This is evident in the widespread adoption of Web 2.0 online Social Networking Services (SNSs) such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. These new Internet based technologies, widely used for social purposes, are being employed by organisations to enhance their business communication processes. However, their use is yet to be correlated with an increase in business performance. Owing to the conflicting empirical evidence that links prior IT applications with increased business performance, IT, Information Systems (IS), and E-Business Model (EBM) research has increasingly looked to broader social and environmental factors as a means for examining and understanding the broader influences shaping IT, IS and E-Business (EB) adoption behaviour. Findings from these studies suggest that organisations adopt new technologies as a result of strong external pressures, rather than a clear measure of enhanced business value. In order to ascertain if this is the case with the adoption of SNSs, this study explores how organisations are creating value (and measuring that value) with the use of SNSs for business purposes, and the external pressures influencing their adoption. In doing so, it seeks to address two research questions: 1. What are the external pressures influencing organisations to adopt SNSs for business communication purposes? 2. Are SNSs providing increased business value for organisations, and if so, how is that value being captured and measured? Informed by the background literature fields of IT, IS, EBM, and Web 2.0, a three-tiered theoretical framework is developed that combines macro-societal, social and technological perspectives as possible causal mechanisms influencing the SNS adoption event. The macro societal view draws on the concept of Castells. (1996) network society and the behaviour of crowds, herds and swarms, to formulate a new explanatory concept of the network vortex. The social perspective draws on key components of institutional theory (DiMaggio & Powell, 1983, 1991), and the technical view draws from the organising vision concept developed by Swanson and Ramiller (1997). The study takes a critical realist approach, and conducts four stages of data collection and one stage of data coding and analysis. Stage 1 consisted of content analysis of websites and SNSs of many organisations, to identify the types of business purposes SNSs are being used for. Stage 2 also involved content analysis of organisational websites, in order to identify suitable sample organisations in which to conduct telephone interviews. Stage 3 consisted of conducting 18 in-depth, semi-structured telephone interviews within eight Australian organisations from the Media/Publishing and Galleries, Libraries, Archives and Museum (GLAM) industries. These sample organisations were considered leaders in the use of SNSs technologies. Stage 4 involved an SNS activity count of the organisations interviewed in Stage 3, in order to rate them as either Advanced Innovator (AI) organisations, or Learning Focussed (LF) organisations. A fifth stage of data coding and analysis of all four data collection stages was conducted, based on the theoretical framework developed for the study, and using QSR NVivo 8 software. The findings from this study reveal that SNSs have been adopted by organisations for the purpose of increasing business value, and as a result of strong social and macro-societal pressures. SNSs offer organisations a wide range of value enhancing opportunities that have broader benefits for customers and society. However, measuring the increased business value is difficult with traditional Return On Investment (ROI) mechanisms, ascertaining the need for new value capture and measurement rationales, to support the accountability of SNS adoption practices. The study also identified the presence of technical, social and macro-societal pressures, all of which influenced SNS adoption by organisations. These findings contribute important theoretical insight into the increased complexity of pressures influencing technology adoption rationales by organisations, and have important practical implications for practice, by reflecting the expanded global online networks in which organisations now operate. The limitations of the study include the small number of sample organisations in which interviews were conducted, its limited generalisability, and the small range of SNSs selected for the study. However, these were compensated in part by the expertise of the interviewees, and the global significance of the SNSs that were chosen. Future research could replicate the study to a larger sample from different industries, sectors and countries. It could also explore the life cycle of SNSs in a longitudinal study, and map how the technical, social and macro-societal pressures are emphasised through stages of the life cycle. The theoretical framework could also be applied to other social fad technology adoption studies.
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Non-state insurgent actors are too weak to compel powerful adversaries to their will, so they use violence to coerce. A principal objective is to grow and sustain violent resistance to the point that it either militarily challenges the state, or more commonly, generates unacceptable political costs. To survive, insurgents must shift popular support away from the state and to grow they must secure it. State actor policies and actions perceived as illegitimate and oppressive by the insurgent constituency can generate these shifts. A promising insurgent strategy is to attack states in ways that lead angry publics and leaders to discount the historically established risks and take flawed but popular decisions to use repressive measures. Such decisions may be enabled by a visceral belief in the power of coercion and selective use of examples of where robust measures have indeed suppressed resistance. To avoid such counterproductive behaviours the cases of apparent 'successful repression' must be understood. This thesis tests whether robust state action is correlated with reduced support for insurgents, analyses the causal mechanisms of such shifts and examines whether such reduction is because of compulsion or coercion? The approach is founded on prior research by the RAND Corporation which analysed the 30 insurgencies most recently resolved worldwide to determine factors of counterinsurgent success. This new study first re-analyses their data at a finer resolution with new queries that investigate the relationship between repression and insurgent active support. Having determined that, in general, repression does not correlate with decreased insurgent support, this study then analyses two cases in which the data suggests repression seems likely to be reducing insurgent support: the PKK in Turkey and the insurgency against the Vietnamese-sponsored regime after their ousting of the Khmer Rouge. It applies 'structured-focused' case analysis with questions partly built from the insurgency model of Leites and Wolf, who are associated with the advocacy of US robust means in Vietnam. This is thus a test of 'most difficult' cases using a 'least likely' test model. Nevertheless, the findings refute the deterrence argument of 'iron fist' advocates. Robust approaches may physically prevent effective support of insurgents but they do not coercively deter people from being willing to actively support the insurgency.
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The Politics of Pulp Investment and the Brazilian Landless Movement (MST) The paper industry has been moving more heavily to the global South at the beginning of the 21st century. In a number of cases the rural populations of the global South have engaged in increasingly important resistance in their scuffle with the large-scale tree plantation-relying pulp investment model. The resistance had generally not yet managed to slow down Southern industrial tree plantation expansion until 2004. After all, even the MST, perhaps the strongest of the Southern movements, has limited power in comparison to the corporations pushing for plantation expansion. This thesis shows how, even against these odds, depending on the mechanisms of contention and case-specific conflict dynamics, in some cases the movements have managed to slow and even reverse plantation expansion. The thesis is based on extensive field research in the Brazilian countryside. It outlines a new theory of contentious agency promotion, emphasizing its importance in the shaping of corporate resource exploitation. The thesis includes a Qualitative Comparative Analysis of resistance influence on the economic outcomes of all (14) Brazilian large-scale pulp projects between 2004-2008. The central hypothesis of the thesis is that corporate resource exploitation can be slowed down more effectively and likely when the resistance is based on contentious agency. Contentious agency is created by the concatenation of five mutually supporting mechanisms of contention: organizing and politicizing a social movement; heterodox framing of pulp projects; protesting; networking; and embedding whilst maintaining autonomy. The findings suggest that contentious agency can slow or even reverse the expansion of industrial plantations, whereas when contentious agency promotion was inactive, fast or even unchecked plantation expansion was always the outcome. The rule applied to all the assessed 14 pulp conflict cases. The hypothesis gained strong support even in situations where corporate agency promotion was simultaneously active. In previous studies on social movements, there has been a lack of contributions that help us understand the causal mechanisms of contention influencing economic outcomes. The thesis answers to the call by merging a Polanyian analysis of the political economy with the Dynamics of Contention research program and making a case for the impact of contentious agency on capital accumulation. The research concludes that an efficient social movement can utilize mechanisms of contention to promote the potential of activism among its members and influence investment outcomes. Protesting, for example via pioneering land occupations, seemed to be particularly important. Until now, there has been no comprehensive theory on when and how contentious agency can slow down or reverse the expansion of corporate resource exploitation. The original contribution of this research is to provide such a theory, and utilize it to offer an extensive explanation on the conflicts over pulp investment in Brazil, the globalization of the paper industry, and slowing of industrial plantation expansion in the global South.
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Causation is still poorly understood in strategy research, and confusion prevails around key concepts such as competitive advantage. In this paper, we define epistemological conditions that help to dispel some of this confusion and to provide a basis for more developed approaches. In particular, we argue that a counterfactual approach – that builds on a systematic analysis of ‘what-if’ questions – can advance our understanding of key causal mechanisms in strategy research. We offer two concrete methodologies – counterfactual history and causal modeling – as useful solutions. We also show that these methodologies open up new avenues in research on competitive advantage. Counterfactual history can add to our understanding of the context-specific construction of resource-based competitive advantage and path dependence, and causal modeling can help to reconceptualize the relationships between resources and performance. In particular, resource properties can be regarded as mediating mechanisms in these causal relationships.
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Causation is still poorly understood in strategy research, and confusion prevails around key concepts such as competitive advantage. In this paper, we define epistemological conditions that help to dispel some of this confusion and to provide a basis for more developed approaches. In particular, we argue that a counterfactual approach – that builds on a systematic analysis of ‘what-if’ questions – can advance our understanding of key causal mechanisms in strategy research. We offer two concrete methodologies – counterfactual history and causal modeling – as useful solutions. We also show that these methodologies open up new avenues in research on competitive advantage. Counterfactual history can add to our understanding of the context-specific construction of resource-based competitive advantage and path dependence, and causal modeling can help to reconceptualize the relationships between resources and performance. In particular, resource properties can be regarded as mediating mechanisms in these causal relationships.
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ENGLISH: In April 1981 the IATTC convened a working group of scientists in Managua, Nicaragua to discuss the tuna-dolphin association and to suggest priorities for future research which would enable the effects of any interaction to be detected or quantified. The yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, fishery in the eastern tropical Pacific is unique in that a significant proportion of the catch is of fish found in association with one or more species of dolphins. This association has never been fully understood but for many years tuna fishermen have used the more visible and more easily herded dolphin schools to help them locate and capture the tuna. In recent years, the concept of managing renewable resources in relation to their environments has been more fully developed. Any renewable resource is closely linked to other components in its general system and it is becoming increasingly more apparent that the harvesting of one resource affects another. This is the case with yellowfin tuna and dolphins in the eastern tropical Pacific, although the dolphins are killed incidental to the fishery and are not harvested. There would seem to be obvious advantages in managing the tuna-dolphin complex as a whole. To do this it is necessary to understand the effect that tuna and dolphins have on each other and the causal mechanisms of the interactions. SPANISH: En abril de 1981, la CIAT convoco un grupo de trabajo de investigadores en Managua (Nicaragua), para deliberar sobre la asociación atún-delfín e indicar prioridades referentes a una investigación futura que pueda facilitar la cuantificación o el reconocimiento de los efectos de cualquier interacción. La pesca del atún aleta amarilla Thunnus albacares en el Pacifico oriental tropical, es única, ya que una proporción importante de su captura es de peces encontrados en asociación con una o mas especies de delfines. No se ha logrado comprender cabalmente esta asociación, pero por varios anos los pescadores atuneros han utilizado los cardúmenes de delfines que son mas visibles y que pueden agruparse mas fácilmente para poder localizar y capturar los atunes. En los últimos anos, el concepto de administrar los recursos renovables con relación a su ambiente, ha tenido mas auge. Cualquier recurso renovable se vincula estrechamente a otros componentes en el sistema general y actualmente es mas evidente que la explotación de un recurso afecta otro. Este es el caso del atún aleta amarilla y de los delfines en el Pacifico oriental tropical aunque los delfines mueren incidentalmente con relación a la pesca y no son explotados. Parece que se obtendr1an ventajas evidentes si se administrara como un todo el conjunto atún-delfín. Para realizar esto es necesario comprender los efectos que tienen los atunes y delfines los unos sabre los otros y los mecanismos causantes de la interacción.
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BACKGROUND: Serotonin is a neurotransmitter that has been linked to a wide variety of behaviors including feeding and body-weight regulation, social hierarchies, aggression and suicidality, obsessive compulsive disorder, alcoholism, anxiety, and affective disorders. Full understanding of serotonergic systems in the central nervous system involves genomics, neurochemistry, electrophysiology, and behavior. Though associations have been found between functions at these different levels, in most cases the causal mechanisms are unknown. The scientific issues are daunting but important for human health because of the use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and other pharmacological agents to treat disorders in the serotonergic signaling system. METHODS: We construct a mathematical model of serotonin synthesis, release, and reuptake in a single serotonergic neuron terminal. The model includes the effects of autoreceptors, the transport of tryptophan into the terminal, and the metabolism of serotonin, as well as the dependence of release on the firing rate. The model is based on real physiology determined experimentally and is compared to experimental data. RESULTS: We compare the variations in serotonin and dopamine synthesis due to meals and find that dopamine synthesis is insensitive to the availability of tyrosine but serotonin synthesis is sensitive to the availability of tryptophan. We conduct in silico experiments on the clearance of extracellular serotonin, normally and in the presence of fluoxetine, and compare to experimental data. We study the effects of various polymorphisms in the genes for the serotonin transporter and for tryptophan hydroxylase on synthesis, release, and reuptake. We find that, because of the homeostatic feedback mechanisms of the autoreceptors, the polymorphisms have smaller effects than one expects. We compute the expected steady concentrations of serotonin transporter knockout mice and compare to experimental data. Finally, we study how the properties of the the serotonin transporter and the autoreceptors give rise to the time courses of extracellular serotonin in various projection regions after a dose of fluoxetine. CONCLUSIONS: Serotonergic systems must respond robustly to important biological signals, while at the same time maintaining homeostasis in the face of normal biological fluctuations in inputs, expression levels, and firing rates. This is accomplished through the cooperative effect of many different homeostatic mechanisms including special properties of the serotonin transporters and the serotonin autoreceptors. Many difficult questions remain in order to fully understand how serotonin biochemistry affects serotonin electrophysiology and vice versa, and how both are changed in the presence of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors. Mathematical models are useful tools for investigating some of these questions.
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Calanus helgolandicus over-winters in the shallow waters (100 m) of the Celtic Sea as copepodite stages V and VI; the minimum temperature in winter is approximately 8.0°C. This over-wintering is not a true hibernation or dormacy, accompanied by a reduced metabolic state with a discontinuation of feeding and development, but more of a lowered activity, involving reduced feeding and development, with predation on available microzooplankton and detritus. Analysis of specimens from the winter population showed that copepodite stages V and VI were actively feeding and still producing and possibly liberating eggs. The absence of late nauplii and young copepodites in the water column until late March indicated that there must be a high mortality of these winter cohorts. The copepodites of the first generation appeared in April–May, the younger stages, copepodites I to III, being distributed deeper in the water column below the euphotic zone and thermocline. This distribution would contribute to amuch slower rate of development. By August the ontogenetic vertical distributions observed in the copepodites were reversed, the younger stages occuring in the warmer surface layers within the euphotic zone. Diurnal migrations were observed in the later copepodites only, the younger stages I to III either remaining deep in spring or shallow in summer. The causal mechanisms which alter the behaviour of the young copepodites remain unexplained. The development of the population of Calanus helgolandicus in 1978, reaching its peak of abundance in August, was typical for the shelf seas around U.K. as observed from Continuous Plankton Recorder data, 1958 to 1977.
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Evidence for climate-correlated low frequency variability of various components of marine ecosystems has accumulated rapidly over the past 2 decades. There has also been a growing recognition that society needs to learn how the fluctuations of these various components are linked, and to predict the likely amplitude and steepness of future changes. Demographic characteristics of marine zooplankton make them especially suitable for examining variability of marine ecosystems at interannual to decadal time scales. Their life cycle duration is short enough that there is little carryover of population membership from year to year, but long enough that variability can be tracked with monthly-to-seasonal sampling. Because zooplankton are rarely fished, comparative analysis of changes in their abundance can greatly enhance our ability to evaluate the importance of and interaction between physical environment, food web, and fishery harvest as causal mechanisms driving ecosystem level changes. A number of valuable within-region analyses of zooplankton time series have been published in the past decade, covering a variety of modes of variability including changes in total biomass, changes in size structure and species composition, changes in spatial distribution, and changes in seasonal timing. But because most zooplankton time series are relatively short compared to the time scales of interest, the statistical power of local analyses is often low, and between-region and between-variable comparisons are also needed. In this paper, we review the results of recent within- and between-region analyses, and suggest some priorities for future work.
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The pathogenesis of diabetic retinopathy is multifactorial, and a range of hyperglycemia-linked pathways have been implicated in the initiation and progression of this condition. All cells in the retina are affected by the diabetic milieu, and in view of such disease and tissue complexity, it is unlikely that any single process is solely responsible for retinal pathophysiology. Nevertheless, establishing causal mechanisms remains an important research goal. This review concentrates on the formation of advanced glycation end products (AGEs) and the role they play in diabetic retinopathy. Perspective is provided on advanced glycation in the retina, the impact that this process has on retinal cell function, and how it relates to other pathogenic pathways. Emphasis is also placed the modulatory role of the receptor for AGEs (RAGE) and how its activation could evoke retinal inflammatory disease. Further research is needed to achieve a clear understanding of the cellular and molecular processes that underpin diabetic retinopathy's initiation and progression. Such advances in basic mechanisms may lead to effective treatments that can prevent progression of retinopathy from the point of the diagnosis of diabetes to sight-threatening proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) and diabetic macular edema (DME).
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Several studies have shown social differences in alcohol consumption, and social inequalities of harm related to alcohol use and abuse. However, relationships between the position in the socio-economic spectrum, alcohol use, and alcohol-related health problems are not clear cut. While there is some evidence of social gradients or associations between indicators of deprivation and some adolescence outcomes (e.g. externalising behaviour), the evidence regarding associations between socio-economic status and alcohol-related problems in adolescence is more conflicting. A major problem in studying socio-economic inequalities in adolescent health is related to the paucity of measures of socio-economic status in adolescence that are both conceptually and methodologically sound.
The aims of this study were to investigate socio-economic differences in pathways from onset to establishment of drinking patterns in adolescence, assess the consequences of these pathways in terms of alcohol related harm, and to consider the causal mechanisms that may contribute to socio-economic differences in drinking pathways and outcomes