Portfolio size effect in retirement accounts : what does it imply for lifecycle asset allocation funds?

Lifecycle funds offered by retirement plan providers allocate aggressively to risky asset classes when the employee participants are young, gradually switching to more conservative asset classes as they grow older and approach retirement. This approach focuses on maximizing growth of the accumulation fund in the initial years and preserving its value in the later years. The authors simulate terminal wealth outcomes based on conventional lifecycle asset allocation rules as well as on contrarian strategies that reverse the direction of asset switching. The evidence suggests that the growth in portfolio size over time significantly impacts the asset allocation decision. Due to the portfolio size effect that is observed by the authors, the terminal value of accumulation in retirement accounts is influenced more by the asset allocation strategy adopted in later years relative to that adopted in early years. By mechanistically switching to conservative assets in the later years of a plan, lifecycle strategies sacrifice significant growth opportunity and prove counterproductive to the participant's wealth accumulation objective. The authors' conclude that this sacrifice does not seem to be compensated adequately in terms of reducing the risk of potentially adverse outcomes.

Asset allocation policy, returns and expenses of superannuation funds : recent evidence based on default options

We examine the asset allocation, returns, and expenses of superannuation funds whose assets are mainly invested in default investment options between 2004 and 2012. A majority of these funds fail to earn returns commensurate with their strategic asset allocation policy. It appears that much of the variation of returns between the funds might be a result of their engaging in significant active management of assets. Our results indicate that returns from active management are negatively related to expenses. We also find strong evidence of economies of scale existing in these superannuation funds across different size categories.

Asset allocation, cross-class correlation and the structure of property returns

Practical applications of portfolio optimisation tend to proceed on a “top down” basis where funds are allocated first at asset class level (between, say, bonds, cash, equities and real estate) and then, progressively, at sub-class level (within property to sectors, office, retail, industrial for example). While there are organisational benefits from such an approach, it can potentially lead to sub-optimal allocations when compared to a “global” or “side-by-side” optimisation. This will occur where there are correlations between sub-classes across the asset divide that are masked in aggregation – between, for instance, City offices and the performance of financial services stocks. This paper explores such sub-class linkages using UK monthly stock and property data. Exploratory analysis using clustering procedures and factor analysis suggests that property performance and equity performance are distinctive: there is little persuasive evidence of contemporaneous or lagged sub-class linkages. Formal tests of the equivalence of optimised portfolios using top-down and global approaches failed to demonstrate significant differences, whether or not allocations were constrained. While the results may be a function of measurement of market returns, it is those returns that are used to assess fund performance. Accordingly, the treatment of real estate as a distinct asset class with diversification potential seems justified.

Aligning asset allocation and real estate investment: some lessons from the last cycle

Asset allocation is concerned with the development of multi--‐asset portfolio strategies that are likely to meet an investor’s objectives based on the interaction of expected returns, risk, correlation and implementation from a range of distinct asset classes or beta sources. Challenges associated with the discipline are often particularly significant in private markets. Specifically, composition differences between the ‘index’ or ‘benchmark’ universe and the investible universe mean that there can often be substantial and meaningful deviations between the investment characteristics implied in asset allocation decisions and those delivered by investment teams. For example, while allocation decisions are often based on relatively low--‐risk diversified real estate ‘equity’ exposure, implementation decisions frequently include exposure to higher risk forms of the asset class as well as investments in debt based instruments. These differences can have a meaningful impact on the contribution of the asset class to the overall portfolio and, therefore, lead to a potential misalignment between asset allocation decisions and implementation. Despite this, the key conclusion from this paper is not that real estate investors should become slaves to a narrowly defined mandate based on IPD / NCREIF or other forms of benchmark replication. The discussion suggests that such an approach would likely lead to the underutilization of real estate in multi--‐asset portfolio strategies. Instead, it is that to achieve asset allocation alignment, real estate exposure should be divided into multiple pools representing distinct forms of the asset class. In addition, the paper suggests that associated investment guidelines and processes should be collaborative and reflect the portfolio wide asset allocation objectives of each pool. Further, where appropriate they should specifically target potential for ‘additional’ beta or, more marginally, ‘alpha’.

Scenari finanziari e portafogli ottimi: modelli di previsione e strategie per l'asset allocation tattica

Le scelte di asset allocation costituiscono un problema ricorrente per ogni investitore. Quest’ultimo è continuamente impegnato a combinare diverse asset class per giungere ad un investimento coerente con le proprie preferenze. L’esigenza di supportare gli asset manager nello svolgimento delle proprie mansioni ha alimentato nel tempo una vasta letteratura che ha proposto numerose strategie e modelli di portfolio construction. Questa tesi tenta di fornire una rassegna di alcuni modelli innovativi di previsione e di alcune strategie nell’ambito dell’asset allocation tattica, per poi valutarne i risvolti pratici. In primis verificheremo la sussistenza di eventuali relazioni tra la dinamica di alcune variabili macroeconomiche ed i mercati finanziari. Lo scopo è quello di individuare un modello econometrico capace di orientare le strategie dei gestori nella costruzione dei propri portafogli di investimento. L’analisi prende in considerazione il mercato americano, durante un periodo caratterizzato da rapide trasformazioni economiche e da un’elevata volatilità dei prezzi azionari. In secondo luogo verrà esaminata la validità delle strategie di trading momentum e contrarian nei mercati futures, in particolare quelli dell’Eurozona, che ben si prestano all’implementazione delle stesse, grazie all’assenza di vincoli sulle operazioni di shorting ed ai ridotti costi di transazione. Dall’indagine emerge che entrambe le anomalie si presentano con carattere di stabilità. I rendimenti anomali permangono anche qualora vengano utilizzati i tradizionali modelli di asset pricing, quali il CAPM, il modello di Fama e French e quello di Carhart. Infine, utilizzando l’approccio EGARCH-M, verranno formulate previsioni sulla volatilità dei rendimenti dei titoli appartenenti al Dow Jones. Quest’ultime saranno poi utilizzate come input per determinare le views da inserire nel modello di Black e Litterman. I risultati ottenuti, evidenziano, per diversi valori dello scalare tau, extra rendimenti medi del new combined vector superiori al vettore degli extra rendimenti di equilibrio di mercato, seppur con livelli più elevati di rischio.

Un modello di asset allocation strategica

La tesi affronta il problema di Finanza Matematica dell'asset allocation strategica che consiste nel processo di ripartizione ottimale delle risorse tra diverse attività finanziarie presenti su un mercato. Sulla base della teoria di Harry Markowitz, attraverso passaggi matematici rigorosi si costruisce un portafoglio che risponde a dei requisiti di efficienza in termini di rapporto rischio-rendimento. Vengono inoltre forniti esempi di applicazione elaborati attraverso il software Mathematica.

Socialism and intrafirm asset allocation

We rely on a survey of Swiss firms to document deviation from first-best for reasons of internal 'fairness' when allicating resources. This 'socialist' practice is more widespread in smaller than in larger firms. It ignores the reputation and past performance of the managers who apply for dunding, but takes into account their hierarchical position and their past use of resources. Socialism is only partially explained by concerns about empire building and managerial optimism, and it is not meant to benefit shareholders.

Empirische Analyse der Bedeutung von indirekten Immobilien für die strategische Asset Allocation

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