A collaborative filtering approach to mitigate the new user cold start problem.

The new user cold start issue represents a serious problem in recommender systems as it can lead to the loss of new users who decide to stop using the system due to the lack of accuracy in the recommenda- tions received in that first stage in which they have not yet cast a significant number of votes with which to feed the recommender system?s collaborative filtering core. For this reason it is particularly important to design new similarity metrics which provide greater precision in the results offered to users who have cast few votes. This paper presents a new similarity measure perfected using optimization based on neu- ral learning, which exceeds the best results obtained with current metrics. The metric has been tested on the Netflix and Movielens databases, obtaining important improvements in the measures of accuracy, precision and recall when applied to new user cold start situations. The paper includes the mathematical formalization describing how to obtain the main quality measures of a recommender system using leave- one-out cross validation.

Assessing urban mobility through participatory scenario building and combined utility-regret assessment

La planificación de la movilidad sostenible urbana es una tarea compleja que implica un alto grado de incertidumbre debido al horizonte de planificación a largo plazo, la amplia gama de paquetes de políticas posibles, la necesidad de una aplicación efectiva y eficiente, la gran escala geográfica, la necesidad de considerar objetivos económicos, sociales y ambientales, y la respuesta del viajero a los diferentes cursos de acción y su aceptabilidad política (Shiftan et al., 2003). Además, con las tendencias inevitables en motorización y urbanización, la demanda de terrenos y recursos de movilidad en las ciudades está aumentando dramáticamente. Como consecuencia de ello, los problemas de congestión de tráfico, deterioro ambiental, contaminación del aire, consumo de energía, desigualdades en la comunidad, etc. se hacen más y más críticos para la sociedad. Esta situación no es estable a largo plazo. Para enfrentarse a estos desafíos y conseguir un desarrollo sostenible, es necesario considerar una estrategia de planificación urbana a largo plazo, que aborde las necesarias implicaciones potencialmente importantes. Esta tesis contribuye a las herramientas de evaluación a largo plazo de la movilidad urbana estableciendo una metodología innovadora para el análisis y optimización de dos tipos de medidas de gestión de la demanda del transporte (TDM). La metodología nueva realizado se basa en la flexibilización de la toma de decisiones basadas en utilidad, integrando diversos mecanismos de decisión contrariedad‐anticipada y combinados utilidad‐contrariedad en un marco integral de planificación del transporte. La metodología propuesta incluye dos aspectos principales: 1) La construcción de escenarios con una o varias medidas TDM usando el método de encuesta que incorpora la teoría “regret”. La construcción de escenarios para este trabajo se hace para considerar específicamente la implementación de cada medida TDM en el marco temporal y marco espacial. Al final, se construyen 13 escenarios TDM en términos del más deseable, el más posible y el de menor grado de “regret” como resultado de una encuesta en dos rondas a expertos en el tema. 2) A continuación se procede al desarrollo de un marco de evaluación estratégica, basado en un Análisis Multicriterio de Toma de Decisiones (Multicriteria Decision Analysis, MCDA) y en un modelo “regret”. Este marco de evaluación se utiliza para comparar la contribución de los distintos escenarios TDM a la movilidad sostenible y para determinar el mejor escenario utilizando no sólo el valor objetivo de utilidad objetivo obtenido en el análisis orientado a utilidad MCDA, sino también el valor de “regret” que se calcula por medio del modelo “regret” MCDA. La función objetivo del MCDA se integra en un modelo de interacción de uso del suelo y transporte que se usa para optimizar y evaluar los impactos a largo plazo de los escenarios TDM previamente construidos. Un modelo de “regret”, llamado “referencedependent regret model (RDRM)” (modelo de contrariedad dependiente de referencias), se ha adaptado para analizar la contribución de cada escenario TDM desde un punto de vista subjetivo. La validación de la metodología se realiza mediante su aplicación a un caso de estudio en la provincia de Madrid. La metodología propuesta define pues un procedimiento técnico detallado para la evaluación de los impactos estratégicos de la aplicación de medidas de gestión de la demanda en el transporte, que se considera que constituye una herramienta de planificación útil, transparente y flexible, tanto para los planificadores como para los responsables de la gestión del transporte. Planning sustainable urban mobility is a complex task involving a high degree of uncertainty due to the long‐term planning horizon, the wide spectrum of potential policy packages, the need for effective and efficient implementation, the large geographical scale, the necessity to consider economic, social, and environmental goals, and the traveller’s response to the various action courses and their political acceptability (Shiftan et al., 2003). Moreover, with the inevitable trends on motorisation and urbanisation, the demand for land and mobility in cities is growing dramatically. Consequently, the problems of traffic congestion, environmental deterioration, air pollution, energy consumption, and community inequity etc., are becoming more and more critical for the society (EU, 2011). Certainly, this course is not sustainable in the long term. To address this challenge and achieve sustainable development, a long‐term perspective strategic urban plan, with its potentially important implications, should be established. This thesis contributes on assessing long‐term urban mobility by establishing an innovative methodology for optimizing and evaluating two types of transport demand management measures (TDM). The new methodology aims at relaxing the utility‐based decision‐making assumption by embedding anticipated‐regret and combined utilityregret decision mechanisms in an integrated transport planning framework. The proposed methodology includes two major aspects: 1) Construction of policy scenarios within a single measure or combined TDM policy‐packages using the survey method incorporating the regret theory. The purpose of building the TDM scenarios in this work is to address the specific implementation in terms of time frame and geographic scale for each TDM measure. Finally, 13 TDM scenarios are built in terms of the most desirable, the most expected and the least regret choice by means of the two‐round Delphi based survey. 2) Development of the combined utility‐regret analysis framework based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This assessment framework is used to compare the contribution of the TDM scenario towards sustainable mobility and to determine the best scenario considering not only the objective utility value obtained from the utilitybased MCDA, but also a regret value that is calculated via a regret‐based MCDA. The objective function of the utility‐based MCDA is integrated in a land use and transport interaction model and is used for optimizing and assessing the long term impacts of the constructed TDM scenarios. A regret based model, called referente dependent regret model (RDRM) is adapted to analyse the contribution of each TDM scenario in terms of a subjective point of view. The suggested methodology is implemented and validated in the case of Madrid. It defines a comprehensive technical procedure for assessing strategic effects of transport demand management measures, which can be useful, transparent and flexible planning tool both for planners and decision‐makers.

Regret theory-based scenario building using an interacttive process

This paper is an introduction of the regret theory-based scenario building approach combining with a modified Delphi method that uses an interactive process to design and assess four different TDM measures (i.e., cordon toll, parking charge, increased bus frequency and decreased bus fare). The case study of Madrid is used to present the analysis and provide policy recommendations. The new scenario building approach incorporates expert judgement and transport models in an interactive process. It consists of a two-round modified Delphi survey, which was answeared by a group of Spanish transport experts who were the participants of the Transport Engineering Congress (CIT 2012), and an integrated land-use and transport model (LUTI) for Madrid that is called MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator).

Accessing networked services : a user interface design problem

This research investigates the general user interface problems in using networked services. Some of the problems are: users have to recall machine names and procedures to. invoke networked services; interactions with some of the services are by means of menu-based interfaces which are quite cumbersome to use; inconsistencies exist between the interfaces for different services because they were developed independently. These problems have to be removed so that users can use the services effectively. A prototype system has been developed to help users interact with networked services. This consists of software which gives the user an easy and consistent interface with the various services. The prototype is based on a graphical user interface and it includes the following appJications: Bath Information & Data Services; electronic mail; file editor. The prototype incorporates an online help facility to assist users using the system. The prototype can be divided into two parts: the user interface part that manages interactlon with the user; the communicatIon part that enables the communication with networked services to take place. The implementation is carried out using an object-oriented approach where both the user interface part and communication part are objects. The essential characteristics of object-orientation, - abstraction, encapsulation, inheritance and polymorphism - can all contribute to the better design and implementation of the prototype. The Smalltalk Model-View-Controller (MVC) methodology has been the framework for the construction of the prototype user interface. The purpose of the development was to study the effectiveness of users interaction to networked services. Having completed the prototype, tests users were requested to use the system to evaluate its effectiveness. The evaluation of the prototype is based on observation, i.e. observing the way users use the system and the opinion rating given by the users. Recommendations to improve further the prototype are given based on the results of the evaluation. based on the results of the evah:1ation. . .'. " "', ':::' ,n,<~;'.'

Collaboration model for SSMEnetUK: a service science perspective

This paper aims to design a collaboration model for a Knowledge Community - SSMEnetUK. The research identifies SSMEnetUK as a socio-technical system and uses the core concepts of Service Science to explore the subject domain. The paper is positioned within the concept of Knowledge Management (KM) and utilising Web 2.0 tools for collaboration. A qualitative case study method was adopted and multiple data sources were used. In achieving that, the degree of co-relation between knowledge management activities and Web 2.0 tools for collaboration in the scenario are pitted against the concept of value propositions offered by both customer/user and service provider. The proposed model provides a better understanding of how Knowledge Management and Web 2.0 tools can enable effective collaboration within SSMEnetUK. This research is relevant to the wider service design and innovation community because it provides a basis for building a service-centric collaboration platform for the benefit of both customer/user and service provider.

Multiuser detection in a dynamic environment — Part II: Joint user identification and parameter estimation

The problem of jointly estimating the number, the identities, and the data of active users in a time-varying multiuser environment was examined in a companion paper (IEEE Trans. Information Theory, vol. 53, no. 9, September 2007), at whose core was the use of the theory of finite random sets on countable spaces. Here we extend that theory to encompass the more general problem of estimating unknown continuous parameters of the active-user signals. This problem is solved here by applying the theory of random finite sets constructed on hybrid spaces. We doso deriving Bayesian recursions that describe the evolution withtime of a posteriori densities of the unknown parameters and data.Unlike in the above cited paper, wherein one could evaluate theexact multiuser set posterior density, here the continuous-parameter Bayesian recursions do not admit closed-form expressions. To circumvent this difficulty, we develop numerical approximationsfor the receivers that are based on Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)methods (“particle filtering”). Simulation results, referring to acode-divisin multiple-access (CDMA) system, are presented toillustrate the theory.

Modeling building semantics: providing feedback and sustainability

Even minor changes in user activity can bring about significant energy savings within built space. Many building performance assessment methods have been developed, however these often disregard the impact of user behavior (i.e. the social, cultural and organizational aspects of the building). Building users currently have limited means of determining how sustainable they are, in context of the specific building structure and/or when compared to other users performing similar activities, it is therefore easy for users to dismiss their energy use. To support sustainability, buildings must be able to monitor energy use, identify areas of potential change in the context of user activity and provide contextually relevant information to facilitate persuasion management. If the building is able to provide users with detailed information about how specific user activity that is wasteful, this should provide considerable motivation to implement positive change. This paper proposes using a dynamic and temporal semantic model, to populate information within a model of persuasion, to manage user change. By semantically mapping a building, and linking this to persuasion management we suggest that: i) building energy use can be monitored and analyzed over time; ii) persuasive management can be facilitated to move user activity towards sustainability.

On Compositional Modelling

Many solutions to AI problems require the task to be represented in one of a multitude of rigorous mathematical formalisms. The construction of such mathematical models forms a difficult problem which is often left to the user of the problem solver. This void between problem solvers and the problems is studied by the eclectic field of automated modelling. Within this field, compositional modelling, a knowledge-based methodology for system modelling, has established itself as a leading approach. In general, a compositional modeller organises knowledge in a structure of composable fragments that relate to particular system components or processes. Its embedded inference mechanism chooses the appropriate fragments with respect to a given problem, instantiates and assembles them into a consistent system model. Many different types of compositional modeller exist, however, with significant differences in their knowledge representation and approach to inference. This paper examines compositional modelling. It presents a general framework for building and analysing compositional modellers. Based on this framework, a number of influential compositional modellers are examined and compared. The paper also identifies the strengths and weaknesses of compositional modelling and discusses some typical applications.

E-Learning Systems, Environments and Approaches

The volume consists of twenty-five chapters selected from among peer-reviewed papers presented at the CELDA (Cognition and Exploratory Learning in the Digital Age) 2013 Conference held in Fort Worth, Texas, USA, in October 2013 and also from world class scholars in e-learning systems, environments and approaches. The following sub-topics are included: Exploratory Learning Technologies (Part I), e-Learning social web design (Part II), Learner communities through e-Learning implementations (Part III), Collaborative and student-centered e-Learning design (Part IV). E-Learning has been, since its initial stages, a synonym for flexibility. While this dynamic nature has mainly been associated with time and space it is safe to argue that currently it embraces other aspects such as the learners’ profile, the scope of subjects that can be taught electronically and the technology it employs. New technologies also widen the range of activities and skills developed in e-Learning. Electronic learning environments have evolved past the exclusive delivery of knowledge. Technology has endowed e-Learning with the possibility of remotely fomenting problem solving skills, critical thinking and team work, by investing in information exchange, collaboration, personalisation and community building.

Envisioning sustainable water futures in a transdisciplinary learning process: combining normative, explorative, and participatory scenario approaches

Competing water demands for household consumption as well as the production of food, energy, and other uses pose challenges for water supply and sustainable development in many parts of the world. Designing creative strategies and learning processes for sustainable water governance is thus of prime importance. While this need is uncontested, suitable approaches still have to be found. In this article we present and evaluate a conceptual approach to scenario building aimed at transdisciplinary learning for sustainable water governance. The approach combines normative, explorative, and participatory scenario elements. This combination allows for adequate consideration of stakeholders’ and scientists’ systems, target, and transformation knowledge. Application of the approach in the MontanAqua project in the Swiss Alps confirmed its high potential for co-producing new knowledge and establishing a meaningful and deliberative dialogue between all actors involved. The iterative and combined approach ensured that stakeholders’ knowledge was adequately captured, fed into scientific analysis, and brought back to stakeholders in several cycles, thereby facilitating learning and co-production of new knowledge relevant for both stakeholders and scientists. However, the approach also revealed a number of constraints, including the enormous flexibility required of stakeholders and scientists in order for them to truly engage in the co-production of new knowledge. Overall, the study showed that shifts from strategic to communicative action are possible in an environment of mutual trust. This ultimately depends on creating conditions of interaction that place scientists’ and stakeholders’ knowledge on an equal footing.

Foresight methodologies to understand changes in the labour process. Experience from Portugal

The foresight and scenario building methods can be an interesting reference for social sciences, especially in terms of innovative methods for labour process analysis. A scenario – as a central concept for the prospective analysis – can be considered as a rich and detailed portrait of a plausible future world. It can be a useful tool for policy-makers to grasp problems clearly and comprehensively, and to better pinpoint challenges as well as opportunities in an overall framework. The features of the foresight methods are being used in some labour policy making experiences. Case studies developed in Portugal will be presented, and some conclusions will be drawn in order to organise a set of principles for foresight analysis applied to the European project WORKS on the work organisation re-structuring in the knowledge society, and on the work design methods for new management structures of virtual organisations.

Assessing scenarios on the future of work

In this paper will be discussed different types of scenarios and the aims for using scenarios. Normaly they are being used by organisations due to the need to anticipate processes, to support policy-making and to understand the complexities of relations. Such organisations can be private companies, R&D organisations and networks of organisations, or even by some public administration institutions. Some cases will be discussed as the methods for ongoing scenario-building process (Shell Internacional). Scenarios should anticipate possible relations among social actors as in the Triple Helix Model, and is possible to develop strategic intelligence in the innovation process that would enable the construction of scenarios. Such processes can be assessed. The focus will be made in relation to the steps chosen for the WORKS scenarios. In this case is there a model of work changes that can be used for foresight? Differences according to sectors were found, as well on other dimensions. Problems of assessment are analysed with specific application to the scenario construction methods.

Descifrando la reestructuración técnica del profesional de la información con las argumentaciones de la economía global

This paper addresses the issue of restructuring the information professional in the global economy. This restructuring is justified by a tripartite explanation: the redesign understood as innovation and disciplinary change, the reorganization of institutions conditioned by the development of information technology and economic deflation interpreted as eliminating jobs. To understand this restructuring scenario multigenerational work contexts information services are also addressed. These work contexts represent a search for understanding and to overcome common referential differences, by baby boomer practitioners and digital natives. The issue of tension and challenge between the specific technical skills and flexibility to adapt to ever-changing organizations is another topic for reflection and serves to point out new paths for the restructuring of the information professional.

China and India’s Maritime Geostrategies:: Implications for International Maritime Security and Scenarios for 2030

Dissertação de Mestrado em Estratégia

Investigating the long term planning framework for the Galway Bay community from climate change.

This research looked at the scientific evidence available on climate change and in particular, projections on sea level rise which ranged from 0.5m to 2m by the end of the century. These projections were then considered in an Irish context. A review of current policy in Ireland revealed that there was no dedicated Government policy on climate change or coastal zone management. In terms of spatial planning policy, it became apparent that there was little or no guidance on climate change either at a national, regional or local level. Therefore, to determine the likely impacts of sea level rise in Ireland based on current spatial planning practice and policy, a scenario-building exercise was carried out for two case study areas in Galway Bay. The two case study areas were: Oranmore, a densely populated town located to the east of Inner Galway Bay; and Tawin Island, a rural dispersed community, located to the south east of Inner Galway Bay. A ‘best’ and ‘worse’ case scenario was envisaged for both areas in terms of sea level rise. In the absence of specific climate change policies it was projected that in the ‘best’ case scenario of 0.5m sea level rise, Tawin Island would suffer serious and adverse impacts while Oranmore was likely to experience slight to moderate impacts. However, in the ‘worse’ case scenario of a 2m sea level rise, it was likely that Tawin Island would be abandoned while many houses, businesses and infrastructure built within the floodplain of Oranmore Bay would be inundated and permanently flooded. In this regard, it was the author’s opinion that a strategic and integrated climate change policy and adaptation plan is vital for the island of Ireland that recognises the importance of integrated land use and spatial planning in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change.