Problemas económicos-sociales del mundo : antología

UANL

Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form

Conditional heteroskedasticity is an important feature of many macroeconomic and financial time series. Standard residual-based bootstrap procedures for dynamic regression models treat the regression error as i.i.d. These procedures are invalid in the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity. We establish the asymptotic validity of three easy-to-implement alternative bootstrap proposals for stationary autoregressive processes with m.d.s. errors subject to possible conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form. These proposals are the fixed-design wild bootstrap, the recursive-design wild bootstrap and the pairwise bootstrap. In a simulation study all three procedures tend to be more accurate in small samples than the conventional large-sample approximation based on robust standard errors. In contrast, standard residual-based bootstrap methods for models with i.i.d. errors may be very inaccurate if the i.i.d. assumption is violated. We conclude that in many empirical applications the proposed robust bootstrap procedures should routinely replace conventional bootstrap procedures for autoregressions based on the i.i.d. error assumption.

A neural system to robust Nonlinear optimization subject to disjoint and constrained sets

The ability of neural networks to realize some complex nonlinear function makes them attractive for system identification. This paper describes a novel method using artificial neural networks to solve robust parameter estimation problems for nonlinear models with unknown-but-bounded errors and uncertainties. More specifically, a modified Hopfield network is developed and its internal parameters are computed using the valid-subspace technique. These parameters guarantee the network convergence to the equilibrium points. A solution for the robust estimation problem with unknown-but-bounded error corresponds to an equilibrium point of the network. Simulation results are presented as an illustration of the proposed approach.

World of Unknown Creatures and Their Hidden Works

What is the most mysterious feelings in mankind? What is the most general way by which every mankind is subject to change. Well monotonous, and steady life where someone does the same kind of work at same pace in same time, without any change of events, creates the burdensome feeling in a person. Yet people are unaware of it. We don't know where are we going, yet we go at the same pace, since in practical sense we are getting some credit for something. But the thing how much do we keep up, and maintain the balance in nature, so that we can really feel the value and the quality of life, and know the exact happiness of fulfilling the work. But if its totally becomes materialistic, and emotional aspect goes away from human beings, where social talking never goes away from your duties. Then!!!! ... I mean there is no need of human beings. If we are so developed, right from past few centuries and our domination, had created a modern social world, then we can create all kinds of devices and software which can handle all the works for which the people don't have to stay overtime just to finish that. I mean in that way human life will move through some progress, and will have some development. But the environment where we are living nothing new or development is taking place as the work becomes a duty for human being but not to machine which should be given some task to be completed.So all those devices are not in the society, since human being is already taking charge if it.

Precursor B cells for autoantibody production in genomically Fas-intact autoimmune disease are not subject to Fas-mediated immune elimination

The Fas/Fas ligand (FasL) system participates in regulation of the immune system through the apoptotic process. However, the extent to which abnormalities in this system are involved in the loss of self-tolerance and development of autoimmune disease not associated with Fas/FasL mutations remains unknown. The present study addresses this issue in Fas/FasL-intact, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE)-prone (NZB × NZW) (NZB/W) F1 mice. While splenic B cells from 2-month-old mice before overt SLE expressed Fas poorly, in vitro stimulation with an agonistic anti-CD40 mAb up-regulated their Fas expression, thus revealing the existence of two populations: one was Fashigh and highly susceptible to anti-Fas mAb-induced apoptosis, and the other was Faslow and apoptosis-resistant. The Faslow cells were included in the CD5+ B cell subpopulation and contained most of the cells that produced IgM anti-DNA antibodies. The isotype of anti-DNA antibodies switches from IgM to IgG in NZB/W F1 mice at ages beginning at about 6 months. These IgG anti-DNA antibodies were produced almost exclusively by a subpopulation of splenic B cells that spontaneously expressed low levels of Fas in vivo and were apoptosis-resistant. The findings indicate that precursor B cells for autoantibody production and presumably autoantibody-secreting cells in these mice are relatively resistant to Fas-mediated apoptosis, a finding supporting the concept that abnormalities of Fas-mediated apoptotic process are involved in the development of autoreactive B cells in Fas/FasL-intact autoimmune disease.

Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.

Risk optimization of a steel frame communications tower subject to tornado winds

The structural engineering community in Brazil faces new challenges with the recent occurrence of high intensity tornados. Satellite surveillance data shows that the area covering the south-east of Brazil, Uruguay and some of Argentina is one of the world most tornado-prone areas, second only to the infamous tornado alley in central United States. The design of structures subject to tornado winds is a typical example of decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Structural design involves finding a good balance between the competing goals of safety and economy. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimum balance between these goals in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, reliability-based risk optimization is used to find the optimal safety coefficient that minimizes the total expected cost of a steel frame communications tower, subject to extreme storm and tornado wind loads. The technique is not new, but it is applied to a practical problem of increasing interest to Brazilian structural engineers. The problem is formulated in the partial safety factor format used in current design codes, with all additional partial factor introduced to serve as optimization variable. The expected cost of failure (or risk) is defined as the product of a. limit state exceedance probability by a limit state exceedance cost. These costs include costs of repairing, rebuilding, and paying compensation for injury and loss of life. The total expected failure cost is the sum of individual expected costs over all failure modes. The steel frame communications, tower subject of this study has become very common in Brazil due to increasing mobile phone coverage. The study shows that optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the cost (or consequences) of failure. Since failure consequences depend oil actual tower location, it turn,,; out that different optimum designs should be used in different locations. Failure consequences are also different for the different parties involved in the design, construction and operation of the tower. Hence, it is important that risk is well understood by the parties involved, so that proper contracts call be made. The investigation shows that when non-structural terms dominate design costs (e.g, in residential or office buildings) it is not too costly to over-design; this observation is in agreement with the observed practice for non-optimized structural systems. In this situation, is much easier to loose money by under-design. When by under-design. When structural material cost is a significant part of design cost (e.g. concrete dam or bridge), one is likely to lose significantmoney by over-design. In this situation, a cost-risk-benefit optimization analysis is highly recommended. Finally, the study also shows that under time-varying loads like tornados, the optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the selected design life.

An insight into the sialotranscriptome of the brown dog tick, Rhipicephalus sanguineus

Background: Rhipicephalus sanguineus, known as the brown dog tick, is a common ectoparasite of domestic dogs and can be found worldwide. R. sanguineus is recognized as the primary vector of the etiological agent of canine monocytic ehrlichiosis and canine babesiosis. Here we present the first description of a R. sanguineus salivary gland transcriptome by the production and analysis of 2,034 expressed sequence tags (EST) from two cDNA libraries, one consctructed using mRNA from dissected salivary glands from female ticks fed for 3-5 days (early to mid library, RsSGL1) and the another from ticks fed for 5 days (mid library, RsSGL2), identifying 1,024 clusters of related sequences. Results: Based on sequence similarities to nine different databases, we identified transcripts of genes that were further categorized according to function. The category of putative housekeeping genes contained similar to 56% of the sequences and had on average 2.49 ESTs per cluster, the secreted protein category contained 26.6% of the ESTs and had 2.47 EST's/clusters, while 15.3% of the ESTs, mostly singletons, were not classifiable, and were annotated as ""unknown function"". The secreted category included genes that coded for lipocalins, proteases inhibitors, disintegrins, metalloproteases, immunomodulatory and antiinflammatory proteins, as Evasins and Da-p36, as well as basic-tail and 18.3 kDa proteins, cement proteins, mucins, defensins and antimicrobial peptides. Comparison of the abundance of ESTs from similar contigs of the two salivary gland cDNA libraries allowed the identification of differentially expressed genes, such as genes coding for Evasins and a thrombin inhibitor, which were over expressed in the RsSGL1 (early to mid library) versus RsSGL2 (mid library), indicating their role in inhibition of inflammation at the tick feeding site from the very beginning of the blood meal. Conversely, sequences related to cement (64P), which function has been correlated with tick attachment, was largely expressed in the mid library. Conclusions: Our survey provided an insight into the R. sanguineus sialotranscriptome, which can assist the discovery of new targets for anti-tick vaccines, as well as help to identify pharmacologically active proteins.

Simplified Mathematical Model for an Anaerobic Sequencing Batch Biofilm Reactor Treating Lipid-Rich Wastewater Subject to Rising Organic Loading Rates

This study proposes a simplified mathematical model to describe the processes occurring in an anaerobic sequencing batch biofilm reactor (ASBBR) treating lipid-rich wastewater. The reactor, subjected to rising organic loading rates, contained biomass immobilized cubic polyurethane foam matrices, and was operated at 32 degrees C +/- 2 degrees C, using 24-h batch cycles. In the adaptation period, the reactor was fed with synthetic substrate for 46 days and was operated without agitation. Whereas agitation was raised to 500 rpm, the organic loading rate (OLR) rose from 0.3 g chemical oxygen demand (COD) . L(-1) . day(-1) to 1.2 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1). The ASBBR was fed fat-rich wastewater (dairy wastewater), in an operation period lasting for 116 days, during which four operational conditions (OCs) were tested: 1.1 +/- 0.2 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC1), 4.5 +/- 0.4 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC2), 8.0 +/- 0.8 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC3), and 12.1 +/- 2.4 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC4). The bicarbonate alkalinity (BA)/COD supplementation ratio was 1:1 at OC1, 1:2 at OC2, and 1:3 at OC3 and OC4. Total COD removal efficiencies were higher than 90%, with a constant production of bicarbonate alkalinity, in all OCs tested. After the process reached stability, temporal profiles of substrate consumption were obtained. Based on these experimental data a simplified first-order model was fit, making possible the inference of kinetic parameters. A simplified mathematical model correlating soluble COD with volatile fatty acids (VFA) was also proposed, and through it the consumption rates of intermediate products as propionic and acetic acid were inferred. Results showed that the microbial consortium worked properly and high efficiencies were obtained, even with high initial substrate concentrations, which led to the accumulation of intermediate metabolites and caused low specific consumption rates.

Self-bound models of compact stars and recent mass-radius measurements

The exact composition of a specific class of compact stars, historically referred to as ""neutron stars,'' is still quite unknown. Possibilities ranging from hadronic to quark degrees of freedom, including self-bound versions of the latter, have been proposed. We specifically address the suitability of strange star models (including pairing interactions) in this work, in the light of new measurements available for four compact stars. The analysis shows that these data might be explained by such an exotic equation of state, actually selecting a small window in parameter space, but still new precise measurements and also further theoretical developments are needed to settle the subject.

Use of Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) in Portuguese for categorizing web-based healthcare content

Introduction: Internet users are increasingly using the worldwide web to search for information relating to their health. This situation makes it necessary to create specialized tools capable of supporting users in their searches. Objective: To apply and compare strategies that were developed to investigate the use of the Portuguese version of Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) for constructing an automated classifier for Brazilian Portuguese-language web-based content within or outside of the field of healthcare, focusing on the lay public. Methods: 3658 Brazilian web pages were used to train the classifier and 606 Brazilian web pages were used to validate it. The strategies proposed were constructed using content-based vector methods for text classification, such that Naive Bayes was used for the task of classifying vector patterns with characteristics obtained through the proposed strategies. Results: A strategy named InDeCS was developed specifically to adapt MeSH for the problem that was put forward. This approach achieved better accuracy for this pattern classification task (0.94 sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC curve). Conclusions: Because of the significant results achieved by InDeCS, this tool has been successfully applied to the Brazilian healthcare search portal known as Busca Saude. Furthermore, it could be shown that MeSH presents important results when used for the task of classifying web-based content focusing on the lay public. It was also possible to show from this study that MeSH was able to map out mutable non-deterministic characteristics of the web. (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scaling of structures subject to impact loads when using a power law constitutive equation

It is well known that structures subjected to dynamic loads do not follow the usual similarity laws when the material is strain rate sensitive. As a consequence, it is not possible to use a scaled model to predict the prototype behaviour. In the present study, this problem is overcome by changing the impact velocity so that the model behaves exactly as the prototype. This exact solution is generated thanks to the use of an exponential constitutive law to infer the dynamic flow stress. Furthermore, it is shown that the adopted procedure does not rely on any previous knowledge of the structure response. Three analytical models are used to analyze the performance of the technique. It is shown that perfect similarity is achieved, regardless of the magnitude of the scaling factor. For the class of material used, the solution outlined has long been sought, inasmuch as it allows perfect similarity for strain rate sensitive structures subject to impact loads. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the kinetics of the coalescence of water droplets in crude oil emulsions subject to an electric field, with the cellular automata technique

In this study, the concept of cellular automata is applied in an innovative way to simulate the separation of phases in a water/oil emulsion. The velocity of the water droplets is calculated by the balance of forces acting on a pair of droplets in a group, and cellular automata is used to simulate the whole group of droplets. Thus, it is possible to solve the problem stochastically and to show the sequence of collisions of droplets and coalescence phenomena. This methodology enables the calculation of the amount of water that can be separated from the emulsion under different operating conditions, thus enabling the process to be optimized. Comparisons between the results obtained from the developed model and the operational performance of an actual desalting unit are carried out. The accuracy observed shows that the developed model is a good representation of the actual process. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.