Statistical modelling of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

Extreme rainfall events have triggered a significant number of flash floods in Madeira Island along its past and recent history. Madeira is a volcanic island where the spatial rainfall distribution is strongly affected by its rugged topography. In this thesis, annual maximum of daily rainfall data from 25 rain gauge stations located in Madeira Island were modelled by the generalised extreme value distribution. Also, the hypothesis of a Gumbel distribution was tested by two methods and the existence of a linear trend in both distributions parameters was analysed. Estimates for the 50– and 100–year return levels were also obtained. Still in an univariate context, the assumption that a distribution function belongs to the domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution for monthly maximum rainfall data was tested for the rainy season. The available data was then analysed in order to find the most suitable domain of attraction for the sampled distribution. In a different approach, a search for thresholds was also performed for daily rainfall values through a graphical analysis. In a multivariate context, a study was made on the dependence between extreme rainfall values from the considered stations based on Kendall’s τ measure. This study suggests the influence of factors such as altitude, slope orientation, distance between stations and their proximity of the sea on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall. Groups of three pairwise associated stations were also obtained and an adjustment was made to a family of extreme value copulas involving the Marshall–Olkin family, whose parameters can be written as a function of Kendall’s τ association measures of the obtained pairs.

Partial Knowledge Restrictions on theTwo-Stage Threshold Model of Choice

In the context of the two-stage threshold model of decision making, with the agent’s choices determined by the interaction Of three “structural variables,” we study the restrictions on behavior that arise when one or more variables are xogenously known. Our results supply necessary and sufficient conditions for consistency with the model for all possible states of partial Knowledge, and for both single- and multivalued choice functions.

Survival analysis statistics applied to threshold data obtained from the ascending forced-choice method of limits

Sensory thresholds are often collected through ascending forced-choice methods. Group thresholds are important for comparing stimuli or populations; yet, the method has two problems. An individual may correctly guess the correct answer at any concentration step and might detect correctly at low concentrations but become adapted or fatigued at higher concentrations. The survival analysis method deals with both issues. Individual sequences of incorrect and correct answers are adjusted, taking into account the group performance at each concentration. The technique reduces the chance probability where there are consecutive correct answers. Adjusted sequences are submitted to survival analysis to determine group thresholds. The technique was applied to an aroma threshold and a taste threshold study. It resulted in group thresholds similar to ASTM or logarithmic regression procedures. Significant differences in taste thresholds between younger and older adults were determined. The approach provides a more robust technique over previous estimation methods.

Systematic analysis of the intravoxel incoherent motion threshold separating perfusion and diffusion effects: Proposal of a standardized algorithm

PURPOSE To systematically evaluate the dependence of intravoxel-incoherent-motion (IVIM) parameters on the b-value threshold separating the perfusion and diffusion compartment, and to implement and test an algorithm for the standardized computation of this threshold. METHODS Diffusion weighted images of the upper abdomen were acquired at 3 Tesla in eleven healthy male volunteers with 10 different b-values and in two healthy male volunteers with 16 different b-values. Region-of-interest IVIM analysis was applied to the abdominal organs and skeletal muscle with a systematic increase of the b-value threshold for computing pseudodiffusion D*, perfusion fraction Fp , diffusion coefficient D, and the sum of squared residuals to the bi-exponential IVIM-fit. RESULTS IVIM parameters strongly depended on the choice of the b-value threshold. The proposed algorithm successfully provided optimal b-value thresholds with the smallest residuals for all evaluated organs [s/mm2]: e.g., right liver lobe 20, spleen 20, right renal cortex 150, skeletal muscle 150. Mean D* [10(-3) mm(2) /s], Fp [%], and D [10(-3) mm(2) /s] values (±standard deviation) were: right liver lobe, 88.7 ± 42.5, 22.6 ± 7.4, 0.73 ± 0.12; right renal cortex: 11.5 ± 1.8, 18.3 ± 2.9, 1.68 ± 0.05; spleen: 41.9 ± 57.9, 8.2 ± 3.4, 0.69 ± 0.07; skeletal muscle: 21.7 ± 19.0; 7.4 ± 3.0; 1.36 ± 0.04. CONCLUSION IVIM parameters strongly depend upon the choice of the b-value threshold used for computation. The proposed algorithm may be used as a robust approach for IVIM analysis without organ-specific adaptation. Magn Reson Med, 2014. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Is blindsight like normal, near-threshold vision?

Blindsight is the rare and paradoxical ability of some human subjects with occipital lobe brain damage to discriminate unseen stimuli in their clinically blind field defects when forced-choice procedures are used, implying that lesions of striate cortex produce a sharp dissociation between visual performance and visual awareness. Skeptics have argued that this is no different from the behavior of normal subjects at the lower limits of conscious vision, at which such dissociations could arise trivially by using different response criteria during clinical and forced-choice tests. We tested this claim explicitly by measuring the sensitivity of a hemianopic patient independently of his response criterion in yes-no and forced-choice detection tasks with the same stimulus and found that, unlike normal controls, his sensitivity was significantly higher during the forced-choice task. Thus, the dissociation by which blindsight is defined is not simply due to a difference in the patients’ response bias between the two paradigms. This result implies that blindsight is unlike normal, near-threshold vision and that information about the stimulus is processed in blindsighted patients in an unusual way.

The effect of Gaussian noise on the threshold, dynamic range, and loudness of analogue cochlear implant stimuli

The deliberate addition of Gaussian noise to cochlear implant signals has previously been proposed to enhance the time coding of signals by the cochlear nerve. Potentially, the addition of an inaudible level of noise could also have secondary benefits: it could lower the threshold to the information-bearing signal, and by desynchronization of nerve discharges, it could increase the level at which the information-bearing signal becomes uncomfortable. Both these effects would lead to an increased dynamic range, which might be expected to enhance speech comprehension and make the choice of cochlear implant compression parameters less critical (as with a wider dynamic range, small changes in the parameters would have less effect on loudness). The hypothesized secondary effects were investigated with eight users of the Clarion cochlear implant; the stimulation was analogue and monopolar. For presentations in noise, noise at 95% of the threshold level was applied simultaneously and independently to all the electrodes. The noise was found in two-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) experiments to decrease the threshold to sinusoidal stimuli (100 Hz, 1 kHz, 5 kHz) by about 2.0 dB and increase the dynamic range by 0.7 dB. Furthermore, in 2AFC loudness balance experiments, noise was found to decrease the loudness of moderate to intense stimuli. This suggests that loudness is partially coded by the degree of phase-locking of cochlear nerve fibers. The overall gain in dynamic range was modest, and more complex noise strategies, for example, using inhibition between the noise sources, may be required to get a clinically useful benefit. © 2006 Association for Research in Otolaryngology.

Does the Swedish Interactive Threshold Algorithm (SITA) accurately map visual field loss attributed to vigabatrin?

Background: Vigabatrin (VGB) is an anti-epileptic medication which has been linked to peripheral constriction of the visual field. Documenting the natural history associated with continued VGB exposure is important when making decisions about the risk and benefits associated with the treatment. Due to its speed the Swedish Interactive Threshold Algorithm (SITA) has become the algorithm of choice when carrying out Full Threshold automated static perimetry. SITA uses prior distributions of normal and glaucomatous visual field behaviour to estimate threshold sensitivity. As the abnormal model is based on glaucomatous behaviour this algorithm has not been validated for VGB recipients. We aim to assess the clinical utility of the SITA algorithm for accurately mapping VGB attributed field loss. Methods: The sample comprised one randomly selected eye of 16 patients diagnosed with epilepsy, exposed to VGB therapy. A clinical diagnosis of VGB attributed visual field loss was documented in 44% of the group. The mean age was 39.3 years∈±∈14.5 years and the mean deviation was -4.76 dB ±4.34 dB. Each patient was examined with the Full Threshold, SITA Standard and SITA Fast algorithm. Results: SITA Standard was on average approximately twice as fast (7.6 minutes) and SITA Fast approximately 3 times as fast (4.7 minutes) as examinations completed using the Full Threshold algorithm (15.8 minutes). In the clinical environment, the visual field outcome with both SITA algorithms was equivalent to visual field examination using the Full Threshold algorithm in terms of visual inspection of the grey scale plots, defect area and defect severity. Conclusions: Our research shows that both SITA algorithms are able to accurately map visual field loss attributed to VGB. As patients diagnosed with epilepsy are often vulnerable to fatigue, the time saving offered by SITA Fast means that this algorithm has a significant advantage for use with VGB recipients.

A comparison of fixed-step-size and Bayesian staircases for sensory threshold estimation

Fixed-step-size (FSS) and Bayesian staircases are widely used methods to estimate sensory thresholds in 2AFC tasks, although a direct comparison of both types of procedure under identical conditions has not previously been reported. A simulation study and an empirical test were conducted to compare the performance of optimized Bayesian staircases with that of four optimized variants of FSS staircase differing as to up-down rule. The ultimate goal was to determine whether FSS or Bayesian staircases are the best choice in experimental psychophysics. The comparison considered the properties of the estimates (i.e. bias and standard errors) in relation to their cost (i.e. the number of trials to completion). The simulation study showed that mean estimates of Bayesian and FSS staircases are dependable when sufficient trials are given and that, in both cases, the standard deviation (SD) of the estimates decreases with number of trials, although the SD of Bayesian estimates is always lower than that of FSS estimates (and thus, Bayesian staircases are more efficient). The empirical test did not support these conclusions, as (1) neither procedure rendered estimates converging on some value, (2) standard deviations did not follow the expected pattern of decrease with number of trials, and (3) both procedures appeared to be equally efficient. Potential factors explaining the discrepancies between simulation and empirical results are commented upon and, all things considered, a sensible recommendation is for psychophysicists to run no fewer than 18 and no more than 30 reversals of an FSS staircase implementing the 1-up/3-down rule.

Stopping rules in Bayesian adaptive threshold estimation

Threshold estimation with sequential procedures is justifiable on the surmise that the index used in the so-called dynamic stopping rule has diagnostic value for identifying when an accurate estimate has been obtained. The performance of five types of Bayesian sequential procedure was compared here to that of an analogous fixed-length procedure. Indices for use in sequential procedures were: (1) the width of the Bayesian probability interval, (2) the posterior standard deviation, (3) the absolute change, (4) the average change, and (5) the number of sign fluctuations. A simulation study was carried out to evaluate which index renders estimates with less bias and smaller standard error at lower cost (i.e. lower average number of trials to completion), in both yes–no and two-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) tasks. We also considered the effect of the form and parameters of the psychometric function and its similarity with themodel function assumed in the procedure. Our results show that sequential procedures do not outperform fixed-length procedures in yes–no tasks. However, in 2AFC tasks, sequential procedures not based on sign fluctuations all yield minimally better estimates than fixed-length procedures, although most of the improvement occurs with short runs that render undependable estimates and the differences vanish when the procedures run for a number of trials (around 70) that ensures dependability. Thus, none of the indices considered here (some of which are widespread) has the diagnostic value that would justify its use. In addition, difficulties of implementation make sequential procedures unfit as alternatives to fixed-length procedures.

When does female multiple mating evolve to adjust inbreeding? : Effects of inbreeding depression, direct costs, mating constraints, and polyandry as a threshold trait

Ackowledgements: This work was funded by a European Research Council Starting Grant to JMR. All simulations were performed using the Maxwell computing cluster at the University of Aberdeen

Threshold values of sagittal abdominal diameter for the detection of cardio-metabolic risk factors in Northeastern Mexico: a cross-sectional study

Background: The use of sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD) has been proposed for screening cardio-metabolic risk factors; however, its accuracy can be influenced by the choice of thresholds values. Aim: To determine the SAD threshold values for cardio-metabolic risk factors in Mexican adults; to assess whether parallel and serial SAD testing can improve waist circumference (WC) sensitivity and specificity; and to analyze the effect of considering SAD along with WC and body mass index (BMI) in detecting cardio-metabolic risk. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted during 2012-2014 in Northeast Mexico (n = 269). Data on anthropometric, clinical, and biochemical measurements were collected. Sex-adjusted receiver-operating characteristic curves (ROC) were obtained using hypertension, dysglycemia, dyslipidemia and insulin resistance as individual outcomes and metabolic syndrome as a composite outcome. Age-adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using logistic regression. Results: The threshold value for SAD with acceptable combination of sensitivity and specificity was 24.6 cm in men and 22.5 cm in women. Parallel SAD testing improved WC sensitivity and serial testing improved WC specificity. The co-occurrence of high WC/high SAD increased the risk for insulin resistance by 2.4-fold (95% CI: 1.1-5.3), high BMI/high SAD by 4.3-fold (95% CI: 1.7-11.9) and SAD alone by 2.2-fold (95% CI: 1.2.-4.2). Conclusions: The use of SAD together with traditional obesity indices such as WC and BMI has advantages over using either of these indices alone. SAD may be a powerful screening tool for interventions for high-risk individuals.

Pain Threshold And Sleep Quality In Women With Endometriosis.

Pain is a common complaint in women with endometriosis and can be influenced by many variables, including sleep disorders; however, no data are available on the sleep quality of women with endometriosis or on the correlation between sleep quality and pain. The 510 volunteers included in this study were divided into two groups: 257 women with a laparoscopic and histopathological diagnosis of endometriosis and 253 women with no history of endometriosis and no endometriosis-related symptoms. The volunteers answered two questionnaires: the Post-Sleep Inventory to evaluate sleep quality and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire to assess their level of physical activity. Pain was evaluated using a visual analogue scale (VAS) and women were also submitted to a physical examination, during which their pain threshold was assessed at 20 different body sites. Sleep quality was significantly poorer in women with endometriosis compared to women without the disease. The pain threshold was significantly lower in the greater trochanter and abdomen in women with endometriosis when compared to women without the disease; however, there was no difference in VAS pain score between the groups. The higher the VAS pain score, the lower the Post-Sleep Inventory score. Additionally, there was a significant positive correlation between the pain threshold at some body sites and sleep quality. Sleep quality was poorer and the pain threshold at certain body sites was lower in the group of women with endometriosis.

Full threshold vs. Swedish interactive threshold algorithm (SITA) em pacientes glaucomatosos submetidos à perimetria computadorizada pela primeira vez

PURPOSE: To compare the Full Threshold (FT) and SITA Standard (SS) strategies in glaucomatous patients undergoing automated perimetry for the first time. METHODS: Thirty-one glaucomatous patients who had never undergone perimetry underwent automated perimetry (Humphrey, program 30-2) with both FT and SS on the same day, with an interval of at least 15 minutes. The order of the examination was randomized, and only one eye per patient was analyzed. Three analyses were performed: a) all the examinations, regardless of the order of application; b) only the first examinations; c) only the second examinations. In order to calculate the sensitivity of both strategies, the following criteria were used to define abnormality: glaucoma hemifield test (GHT) outside normal limits, pattern standard deviation (PSD) <5%, or a cluster of 3 adjacent points with p<5% at the pattern deviation probability plot. RESULTS: When the results of all examinations were analyzed regardless of the order in which they were performed, the number of depressed points with p<0.5% in the pattern deviation probability map was significantly greater with SS (p=0.037), and the sensitivities were 87.1% for SS and 77.4% for FT (p=0.506). When only the first examinations were compared, there were no statistically significant differences regarding the number of depressed points, but the sensitivity of SS (100%) was significantly greater than that obtained with FT (70.6%) (p=0.048). When only the second examinations were compared, there were no statistically significant differences regarding the number of depressed points, and the sensitivities of SS (76.5%) and FT (85.7%) (p=0.664). CONCLUSION: SS may have a higher sensitivity than FT in glaucomatous patients undergoing automated perimetry for the first time. However, this difference tends to disappear in subsequent examinations.

Testes de desempenho aeróbio relacionados a intensidades de corrida em treinamento e competição para fundistas de alto rendimento = : Aerobic performance tests related to training and competition running intensities for high performance distance runners

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física