A robust optimization approach for index tracking problem

Index tracking is an investment approach where the primary objective is to keep portfolio return as close as possible to a target index without purchasing all index components. The main purpose is to minimize the tracking error between the returns of the selected portfolio and a benchmark. In this paper, quadratic as well as linear models are presented for minimizing the tracking error. The uncertainty is considered in the input data using a tractable robust framework that controls the level of conservatism while maintaining linearity. The linearity of the proposed robust optimization models allows a simple implementation of an ordinary optimization software package to find the optimal robust solution. The proposed model of this paper employs Morgan Stanley Capital International Index as the target index and the results are reported for six national indices including Japan, the USA, the UK, Germany, Switzerland and France. The performance of the proposed models is evaluated using several financial criteria e.g. information ratio, market ratio, Sharpe ratio and Treynor ratio. The preliminary results demonstrate that the proposed model lowers the amount of tracking error while raising values of portfolio performance measures.

Chance constrained uncertain classification via robust optimization

This paper studies the problem of constructing robust classifiers when the training is plagued with uncertainty. The problem is posed as a Chance-Constrained Program (CCP) which ensures that the uncertain data points are classified correctly with high probability. Unfortunately such a CCP turns out to be intractable. The key novelty is in employing Bernstein bounding schemes to relax the CCP as a convex second order cone program whose solution is guaranteed to satisfy the probabilistic constraint. Prior to this work, only the Chebyshev based relaxations were exploited in learning algorithms. Bernstein bounds employ richer partial information and hence can be far less conservative than Chebyshev bounds. Due to this efficient modeling of uncertainty, the resulting classifiers achieve higher classification margins and hence better generalization. Methodologies for classifying uncertain test data points and error measures for evaluating classifiers robust to uncertain data are discussed. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed classifiers are better equipped to handle data uncertainty and outperform state-of-the-art in many cases.

Development and assessment of a robust optimization metric for WAMPAC modeling

A PMU based WAMS is to be placed on a weakly coupled section of distribution grid, with high levels of distributed generation. In anticipation of PMU data a Siemens PSS/E model of the electrical environment has been used to return similar data to that expected from the WAMS. This data is then used to create a metric that reflects optimization, control and protection in the region. System states are iterated through with the most desirable one returning the lowest optimization metric, this state is assessed against the one returned by PSS/E under normal circumstances. This paper investigates the circumstances that trigger SPS in the region, through varying generation between 0 and 110% and compromising the network through line loss under summer minimum and winter maximum conditions. It is found that the optimized state can generally tolerate an additional 2 MW of generation (3% of total) before encroaching the same thresholds and in one instance moves the triggering to 100% of generation output.

Asset liability modelling and pension schemes: the application of robust optimization to USS

This paper uses a novel numerical optimization technique - robust optimization - that is well suited to solving the asset-liability management (ALM) problem for pension schemes. It requires the estimation of fewer stochastic parameters, reduces estimation risk and adopts a prudent approach to asset allocation. This study is the first to apply it to a real-world pension scheme, and the first ALM model of a pension scheme to maximise the Sharpe ratio. We disaggregate pension liabilities into three components - active members, deferred members and pensioners, and transform the optimal asset allocation into the scheme’s projected contribution rate. The robust optimization model is extended to include liabilities and used to derive optimal investment policies for the Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS), benchmarked against the Sharpe and Tint, Bayes-Stein, and Black-Litterman models as well as the actual USS investment decisions. Over a 144 month out-of-sample period robust optimization is superior to the four benchmarks across 20 performance criteria, and has a remarkably stable asset allocation – essentially fix-mix. These conclusions are supported by six robustness checks.

Efficient robust optimization based on polynomial chaos and tabu search algorithm

The study of robust design methodologies and techniques has become a new topical area in design optimizations in nearly all engineering and applied science disciplines in the last 10 years due to inevitable and unavoidable imprecision or uncertainty which is existed in real word design problems. To develop a fast optimizer for robust designs, a methodology based on polynomial chaos and tabu search algorithm is proposed. In the methodology, the polynomial chaos is employed as a stochastic response surface model of the objective function to efficiently evaluate the robust performance parameter while a mechanism to assign expected fitness only to promising solutions is introduced in tabu search algorithm to minimize the requirement for determining robust metrics of intermediate solutions. The proposed methodology is applied to the robust design of a practical inverse problem with satisfactory results.

Engineering knowledge-based variance-reduction simulation and G-dominance for structural frame robust optimization

[EN] This paper proposes the incorporation of engineering knowledge through both (a) advanced state-of-the-art preference handling decision-making tools integrated in multiobjective evolutionary algorithms and (b) engineering knowledge-based variance reduction simulation as enhancing tools for the robust optimum design of structural frames taking uncertainties into consideration in the design variables.The simultaneous minimization of the constrained weight (adding structuralweight and average distribution of constraint violations) on the one hand and the standard deviation of the distribution of constraint violation on the other are handled with multiobjective optimization-based evolutionary computation in two different multiobjective algorithms. The optimum design values of the deterministic structural problem in question are proposed as a reference point (the aspiration level) in reference-point-based evolutionary multiobjective algorithms (here g-dominance is used). Results including

Dynamic, convex, and robust optimization with Bayesian learning for response-guided dosing

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Robust design optimization of gas turbine compression systems

Gas turbine compression systems are required to perform adequately over a range of operating conditions. Complexity has encouraged the conventional design process for compressors to focus initially on one operating point, usually the most commonor arduous, to draw up an outline design. Generally, only as this initial design is refined is its offdesign performance assessed in detail. Not only does this necessarily introduce a potentially costly and timeconsuming extra loop in the design process, but it also may result in a design whose offdesign behavior is suboptimal. Aversion of nonintrusive polynomial chaos was previously developed in which a set of orthonormal polynomials was generated to facilitate a rapid analysis of robustness in the presence of generic uncertainties with good accuracy. In this paper, this analysis method is incorporated in real time into the design process for the compression system of a three-shaft gas turbine aeroengine. This approach to robust optimization is shown to lead to designs that exhibit consistently improved system performance with reduced sensitivity to offdesign operation.

A soft robust model for optimization under ambiguity

In this paper, we propose a framework for robust optimization that relaxes the standard notion of robustness by allowing the decision maker to vary the protection level in a smooth way across the uncertainty set. We apply our approach to the problem of maximizing the expected value of a payoff function when the underlying distribution is ambiguous and therefore robustness is relevant. Our primary objective is to develop this framework and relate it to the standard notion of robustness, which deals with only a single guarantee across one uncertainty set. First, we show that our approach connects closely to the theory of convex risk measures. We show that the complexity of this approach is equivalent to that of solving a small number of standard robust problems. We then investigate the conservatism benefits and downside probability guarantees implied by this approach and compare to the standard robust approach. Finally, we illustrate theme thodology on an asset allocation example consisting of historical market data over a 25-year investment horizon and find in every case we explore that relaxing standard robustness with soft robustness yields a seemingly favorable risk-return trade-off: each case results in a higher out-of-sample expected return for a relatively minor degradation of out-of-sample downside performance. © 2010 INFORMS.

Robust scenario formulations for strategic supply chain optimization under uncertainty

Strategic supply chain optimization (SCO) problems are often modelled as a two-stage optimization problem, in which the first-stage variables represent decisions on the development of the supply chain and the second-stage variables represent decisions on the operations of the supply chain. When uncertainty is explicitly considered, the problem becomes an intractable infinite-dimensional optimization problem, which is usually solved approximately via a scenario or a robust approach. This paper proposes a novel synergy of the scenario and robust approaches for strategic SCO under uncertainty. Two formulations are developed, namely, naïve robust scenario formulation and affinely adjustable robust scenario formulation. It is shown that both formulations can be reformulated into tractable deterministic optimization problems if the uncertainty is bounded with the infinity-norm, and the uncertain equality constraints can be reformulated into deterministic constraints without assumption of the uncertainty region. Case studies of a classical farm planning problem and an energy and bioproduct SCO problem demonstrate the advantages of the proposed formulations over the classical scenario formulation. The proposed formulations not only can generate solutions with guaranteed feasibility or indicate infeasibility of a problem, but also can achieve optimal expected economic performance with smaller numbers of scenarios.

A robust approach to design a single facility layout plan in dynamic manufacturing environments using a permutation-based genetic algorithm

During the past few decades, developing efficient methods to solve dynamic facility layout problems has been focused on significantly by practitioners and researchers. More specifically meta-heuristic algorithms, especially genetic algorithm, have been proven to be increasingly helpful to generate sub-optimal solutions for large-scale dynamic facility layout problems. Nevertheless, the uncertainty of the manufacturing factors in addition to the scale of the layout problem calls for a mixed genetic algorithm–robust approach that could provide a single unlimited layout design. The present research aims to devise a customized permutation-based robust genetic algorithm in dynamic manufacturing environments that is expected to be generating a unique robust layout for all the manufacturing periods. The numerical outcomes of the proposed robust genetic algorithm indicate significant cost improvements compared to the conventional genetic algorithm methods and a selective number of other heuristic and meta-heuristic techniques.

Efficient Methods for Robust Classification Under Uncertainty in Kernel Matrices

In this paper we study the problem of designing SVM classifiers when the kernel matrix, K, is affected by uncertainty. Specifically K is modeled as a positive affine combination of given positive semi definite kernels, with the coefficients ranging in a norm-bounded uncertainty set. We treat the problem using the Robust Optimization methodology. This reduces the uncertain SVM problem into a deterministic conic quadratic problem which can be solved in principle by a polynomial time Interior Point (IP) algorithm. However, for large-scale classification problems, IP methods become intractable and one has to resort to first-order gradient type methods. The strategy we use here is to reformulate the robust counterpart of the uncertain SVM problem as a saddle point problem and employ a special gradient scheme which works directly on the convex-concave saddle function. The algorithm is a simplified version of a general scheme due to Juditski and Nemirovski (2011). It achieves an O(1/T-2) reduction of the initial error after T iterations. A comprehensive empirical study on both synthetic data and real-world protein structure data sets show that the proposed formulations achieve the desired robustness, and the saddle point based algorithm outperforms the IP method significantly.

Analysis and Optimization of Machining Process Using Evolutionary Algorithms

To ensure quality of machined products at minimum machining costs and maximum machining effectiveness, it is very important to select optimum parameters when metal cutting machine tools are employed. Traditionally, the experience of the operator plays a major role in the selection of optimum metal cutting conditions. However, attaining optimum values each time by even a skilled operator is difficult. The non-linear nature of the machining process has compelled engineers to search for more effective methods to attain optimization. The design objective preceding most engineering design activities is simply to minimize the cost of production or to maximize the production efficiency. The main aim of research work reported here is to build robust optimization algorithms by exploiting ideas that nature has to offer from its backyard and using it to solve real world optimization problems in manufacturing processes.In this thesis, after conducting an exhaustive literature review, several optimization techniques used in various manufacturing processes have been identified. The selection of optimal cutting parameters, like depth of cut, feed and speed is a very important issue for every machining process. Experiments have been designed using Taguchi technique and dry turning of SS420 has been performed on Kirlosker turn master 35 lathe. Analysis using S/N and ANOVA were performed to find the optimum level and percentage of contribution of each parameter. By using S/N analysis the optimum machining parameters from the experimentation is obtained.Optimization algorithms begin with one or more design solutions supplied by the user and then iteratively check new design solutions, relative search spaces in order to achieve the true optimum solution. A mathematical model has been developed using response surface analysis for surface roughness and the model was validated using published results from literature.Methodologies in optimization such as Simulated annealing (SA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Conventional Genetic Algorithm (CGA) and Improved Genetic Algorithm (IGA) are applied to optimize machining parameters while dry turning of SS420 material. All the above algorithms were tested for their efficiency, robustness and accuracy and observe how they often outperform conventional optimization method applied to difficult real world problems. The SA, PSO, CGA and IGA codes were developed using MATLAB. For each evolutionary algorithmic method, optimum cutting conditions are provided to achieve better surface finish.The computational results using SA clearly demonstrated that the proposed solution procedure is quite capable in solving such complicated problems effectively and efficiently. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is a relatively recent heuristic search method whose mechanics are inspired by the swarming or collaborative behavior of biological populations. From the results it has been observed that PSO provides better results and also more computationally efficient.Based on the results obtained using CGA and IGA for the optimization of machining process, the proposed IGA provides better results than the conventional GA. The improved genetic algorithm incorporating a stochastic crossover technique and an artificial initial population scheme is developed to provide a faster search mechanism. Finally, a comparison among these algorithms were made for the specific example of dry turning of SS 420 material and arriving at optimum machining parameters of feed, cutting speed, depth of cut and tool nose radius for minimum surface roughness as the criterion. To summarize, the research work fills in conspicuous gaps between research prototypes and industry requirements, by simulating evolutionary procedures seen in nature that optimize its own systems.

Essays on robust portfolio selection and pension finance

This thesis examines three different, but related problems in the broad area of portfolio management for long-term institutional investors, and focuses mainly on the case of pension funds. The first idea (Chapter 3) is the application of a novel numerical technique – robust optimization – to a real-world pension scheme (the Universities Superannuation Scheme, USS) for first time. The corresponding empirical results are supported by many robustness checks and several benchmarks such as the Bayes-Stein and Black-Litterman models that are also applied for first time in a pension ALM framework, the Sharpe and Tint model and the actual USS asset allocations. The second idea presented in Chapter 4 is the investigation of whether the selection of the portfolio construction strategy matters in the SRI industry, an issue of great importance for long term investors. This study applies a variety of optimal and naïve portfolio diversification techniques to the same SRI-screened universe, and gives some answers to the question of which portfolio strategies tend to create superior SRI portfolios. Finally, the third idea (Chapter 5) compares the performance of a real-world pension scheme (USS) before and after the recent major changes in the pension rules under different dynamic asset allocation strategies and the fixed-mix portfolio approach and quantifies the redistributive effects between various stakeholders. Although this study deals with a specific pension scheme, the methodology can be applied by other major pension schemes in countries such as the UK and USA that have changed their rules.