Some bivariate life time models in discrete time"

The term reliability of an equipment or device is often meant to indicate the probability that it carries out the functions expected of it adequately or without failure and within specified performance limits at a given age for a desired mission time when put to use under the designated application and operating environmental stress. A broad classification of the approaches employed in relation to reliability studies can be made as probabilistic and deterministic, where the main interest in the former is to device tools and methods to identify the random mechanism governing the failure process through a proper statistical frame work, while the latter addresses the question of finding the causes of failure and steps to reduce individual failures thereby enhancing reliability. In the probabilistic attitude to which the present study subscribes to, the concept of life distribution, a mathematical idealisation that describes the failure times, is fundamental and a basic question a reliability analyst has to settle is the form of the life distribution. It is for no other reason that a major share of the literature on the mathematical theory of reliability is focussed on methods of arriving at reasonable models of failure times and in showing the failure patterns that induce such models. The application of the methodology of life time distributions is not confined to the assesment of endurance of equipments and systems only, but ranges over a wide variety of scientific investigations where the word life time may not refer to the length of life in the literal sense, but can be concieved in its most general form as a non-negative random variable. Thus the tools developed in connection with modelling life time data have found applications in other areas of research such as actuarial science, engineering, biomedical sciences, economics, extreme value theory etc.

Some concepts and models usefulninthe analysis of discrete life time data

This thesis entitled Reliability Modelling and Analysis in Discrete time Some Concepts and Models Useful in the Analysis of discrete life time data.The present study consists of five chapters. In Chapter II we take up the derivation of some general results useful in reliability modelling that involves two component mixtures. Expression for the failure rate, mean residual life and second moment of residual life of the mixture distributions in terms of the corresponding quantities in the component distributions are investigated. Some applications of these results are also pointed out. The role of the geometric,Waring and negative hypergeometric distributions as models of life lengths in the discrete time domain has been discussed already. While describing various reliability characteristics, it was found that they can be often considered as a class. The applicability of these models in single populations naturally extends to the case of populations composed of sub-populations making mixtures of these distributions worth investigating. Accordingly the general properties, various reliability characteristics and characterizations of these models are discussed in chapter III. Inference of parameters in mixture distribution is usually a difficult problem because the mass function of the mixture is a linear function of the component masses that makes manipulation of the likelihood equations, leastsquare function etc and the resulting computations.very difficult. We show that one of our characterizations help in inferring the parameters of the geometric mixture without involving computational hazards. As mentioned in the review of results in the previous sections, partial moments were not studied extensively in literature especially in the case of discrete distributions. Chapters IV and V deal with descending and ascending partial factorial moments. Apart from studying their properties, we prove characterizations of distributions by functional forms of partial moments and establish recurrence relations between successive moments for some well known families. It is further demonstrated that partial moments are equally efficient and convenient compared to many of the conventional tools to resolve practical problems in reliability modelling and analysis. The study concludes by indicating some new problems that surfaced during the course of the present investigation which could be the subject for a future work in this area.

Notes on the Solution of Dynamic Optimization Problems with Explicit Controls in Discrete-Time Economic Models

Йордан Йорданов, Андрей Василев - В работата се изследват методи за решаването на задачи на оптималното управление в дискретно време с безкраен хоризонт и явни управления. Дадена е обосновка на една процедура за решаване на такива задачи, базирана на множители на Лагранж, коята често се употребява в икономическата литература. Извеждени са необходимите условия за оптималност на базата на уравнения на Белман и са приведени достатъчни условия за оптималност при допускания, които често се използват в икономиката.

Decoherence models for discrete-time quantum walks and their application to neutral atom experiments

We discuss decoherence in discrete-time quantum walks in terms of a phenomenological model that distinguishes spin and spatial decoherence. We identify the dominating mechanisms that affect quantum-walk experiments realized with neutral atoms walking in an optical lattice. From the measured spatial distributions, we determine with good precision the amount of decoherence per step, which provides a quantitative indication of the quality of our quantum walks. In particular, we find that spin decoherence is the main mechanism responsible for the loss of coherence in our experiment. We also find that the sole observation of ballistic-instead of diffusive-expansion in position space is not a good indicator of the range of coherent delocalization. We provide further physical insight by distinguishing the effects of short- and long-time spin dephasing mechanisms. We introduce the concept of coherence length in the discrete-time quantum walk, which quantifies the range of spatial coherences. Unexpectedly, we find that quasi-stationary dephasing does not modify the local properties of the quantum walk, but instead affects spatial coherences. For a visual representation of decoherence phenomena in phase space, we have developed a formalism based on a discrete analogue of the Wigner function. We show that the effects of spin and spatial decoherence differ dramatically in momentum space.

Computation-Based Reliability Analysis in Real Time Applications

Reliability analysis for computing systems in aerospace applications must account for actual computations the system performs in the use environment. This paper introduces a theoretical nonhomogeneous Markov model for such applications.

Performance analysis of a fluid queue with random service rate in discrete time

We consider a fluid queue in discrete time with random service rate. Such a queue has been used in several recent studies on wireless networks where the packets can be arbitrarily fragmented. We provide conditions on finiteness of moments of stationary delay, its Laplace-Stieltjes transform and various approximations under heavy traffic. Results are extended to the case where the wireless link can transmit in only a few slots during a frame.

Assessment of rolling resistance models in discrete element simulations

Particulate systems are of interest in many disciplines. They are often investigated using the discrete element method because of its capability to investigate particulate systems at the individual particle scale. To model the interaction between two particles and between a particle and a boundary, conventional discrete element models use springs and dampers in both the normal and tangential directions. The significance of particle rotation has been highlighted in both numerical studies and physical experiments. Several researchers have attempted to incorporate a rotational torque to account for the rolling resistance or rolling friction by developing different models. This paper presents a review of the commonly used models for rolling resistance and proposes a more general model. These models are classified into four categories according to their key characteristics. The robustness of these models in reproducing rolling resistance effects arising from different physical situations was assessed by using several benchmarking test cases. The proposed model can be seen to be more general and suitable for modelling problems involving both dynamic and pseudo-static regimes. An example simulation of the formation of a 2D sandpile is also shown. For simplicity, all formulations and examples are presented in 2D form, though the general conclusions are also applicable to 3D systems.

Stable reduced-order models for discrete-time systems

The Routh-stability method is employed to reduce the order of discrete-time system transfer functions. It is shown that the Routh approximant is well suited to reduce both the denominator and the numerator polynomials, although alternative methods, such as PadÃ�Â(c)-Markov approximation, are also used to fit the model numerator coefficients.

Performance Evaluation of Material Flow Systems in Discrete Time

Im folgenden Beitrag werden zeitdiskrete analytische Methoden vorgestellt, mit Hilfe derer Informations- und Materialflüsse in logistischen Systemen analysiert und bewertet werden können. Bestehende zeitdiskrete Verfahren sind jedoch auf die Bearbeitung und Weitergabe in immer gleichen Mengen („One Piece Flow“) beschränkt. Vor allem in Materialflusssystemen kommt es, bedingt durch die Zusammenfassung von Aufträgen, durch Transporte und durch Sortiervorgänge, zur Bildung von Batches. Daher wurden analytische Methoden entwickelt, die es ermöglichen, verschiedene Sammelprozesse, Batchankünfte an Ressourcen, Batchbearbeitung und Sortieren von Batches analytisch abzubilden und Leistungskenngrößen zu deren Bewertung zu bestimmen. Die im Rahmen der Entwicklungsarbeiten entstandene Software-Lösung „Logistic Analyzer“ ermöglicht eine einfache Modellierung und Analyse von praktischen Problemen. Der Beitrag schließt mit einem numerischen Beispiel.

Quantifying simulator discrepancy in discrete-time dynamical simulators

When making predictions with complex simulators it can be important to quantify the various sources of uncertainty. Errors in the structural specification of the simulator, for example due to missing processes or incorrect mathematical specification, can be a major source of uncertainty, but are often ignored. We introduce a methodology for inferring the discrepancy between the simulator and the system in discrete-time dynamical simulators. We assume a structural form for the discrepancy function, and show how to infer the maximum-likelihood parameter estimates using a particle filter embedded within a Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. We illustrate the method on a conceptual rainfall-runoff simulator (logSPM) used to model the Abercrombie catchment in Australia. We assess the simulator and discrepancy model on the basis of their predictive performance using proper scoring rules. This article has supplementary material online. © 2011 International Biometric Society.

Output feedback control of discrete-time systems in networked environments

This correspondence paper addresses the problem of output feedback stabilization of control systems in networked environments with quality-of-service (QoS) constraints. The problem is investigated in discrete-time state space using Lyapunov’s stability theory and the linear inequality matrix technique. A new discrete-time modeling approach is developed to describe a networked control system (NCS) with parameter uncertainties and nonideal network QoS. It integrates a network-induced delay, packet dropout, and other network behaviors into a unified framework. With this modeling, an improved stability condition, which is dependent on the lower and upper bounds of the equivalent network-induced delay, is established for the NCS with norm-bounded parameter uncertainties. It is further extended for the output feedback stabilization of the NCS with nonideal QoS. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the main results of the theoretical development.

Emergence of Cooperation in Heterogeneous Population: A Discrete-Time Replicator Dynamics Analysis

The emergence of cooperation is analyzed in heterogeneous populations where individuals can be classified in two groups according to their phenotypic appearance. Phenotype recognition is assumed for all individuals: individuals are able to identify the type of every other individual, but fail to recognize their own type, and thus behave under partial information conditions. The interactions between individuals are described by 2 × 2 symmetric games where individuals can either cooperate or defect. The evolution of such populations is studied in the framework of evolutionary game by means of the replicator dynamics. Overlapping generations are considered, so the replicator equations are formulated in discrete-time form. The well-posedness conditions of the system are derived. Depending on the parameters of the game, a restriction may exist for the generation length. The stability analysis of the dynamical system is carried out and a detailed description of the behavior of trajectories starting from the interior of the state-space is given. We find that, provided the conditions of well-posedness are verified, the linear stability of monomorphic states in the discrete-time replicator coincides with the one of the continuous case. Specific from the discrete-time case, a relaxed restriction for the generation length is derived, for which larger time-steps can be used without compromising the well-posedness of the replicator system.

A review on degradation models in reliability analysis

With increasingly complex engineering assets and tight economic requirements, asset reliability becomes more crucial in Engineering Asset Management (EAM). Improving the reliability of systems has always been a major aim of EAM. Reliability assessment using degradation data has become a significant approach to evaluate the reliability and safety of critical systems. Degradation data often provide more information than failure time data for assessing reliability and predicting the remnant life of systems. In general, degradation is the reduction in performance, reliability, and life span of assets. Many failure mechanisms can be traced to an underlying degradation process. Degradation phenomenon is a kind of stochastic process; therefore, it could be modelled in several approaches. Degradation modelling techniques have generated a great amount of research in reliability field. While degradation models play a significant role in reliability analysis, there are few review papers on that. This paper presents a review of the existing literature on commonly used degradation models in reliability analysis. The current research and developments in degradation models are reviewed and summarised in this paper. This study synthesises these models and classifies them in certain groups. Additionally, it attempts to identify the merits, limitations, and applications of each model. It provides potential applications of these degradation models in asset health and reliability prediction.

Reliability models for existing structures based on dynamic state estimation and data based asymptotic extreme value analysis

The problem of time variant reliability analysis of existing structures subjected to stationary random dynamic excitations is considered. The study assumes that samples of dynamic response of the structure, under the action of external excitations, have been measured at a set of sparse points on the structure. The utilization of these measurements m in updating reliability models, postulated prior to making any measurements, is considered. This is achieved by using dynamic state estimation methods which combine results from Markov process theory and Bayes' theorem. The uncertainties present in measurements as well as in the postulated model for the structural behaviour are accounted for. The samples of external excitations are taken to emanate from known stochastic models and allowance is made for ability (or lack of it) to measure the applied excitations. The future reliability of the structure is modeled using expected structural response conditioned on all the measurements made. This expected response is shown to have a time varying mean and a random component that can be treated as being weakly stationary. For linear systems, an approximate analytical solution for the problem of reliability model updating is obtained by combining theories of discrete Kalman filter and level crossing statistics. For the case of nonlinear systems, the problem is tackled by combining particle filtering strategies with data based extreme value analysis. In all these studies, the governing stochastic differential equations are discretized using the strong forms of Ito-Taylor's discretization schemes. The possibility of using conditional simulation strategies, when applied external actions are measured, is also considered. The proposed procedures are exemplifiedmby considering the reliability analysis of a few low-dimensional dynamical systems based on synthetically generated measurement data. The performance of the procedures developed is also assessed based on a limited amount of pertinent Monte Carlo simulations. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Instability, intermittency, and multiscaling in discrete growth models of kinetic roughening

We show by numerical simulations that discretized versions of commonly studied continuum nonlinear growth equations (such as the Kardar-Parisi-Zhangequation and the Lai-Das Sarma-Villain equation) and related atomistic models of epitaxial growth have a generic instability in which isolated pillars (or grooves) on an otherwise flat interface grow in time when their height (or depth) exceeds a critical value. Depending on the details of the model, the instability found in the discretized version may or may not be present in the truly continuum growth equation, indicating that the behavior of discretized nonlinear growth equations may be very different from that of their continuum counterparts. This instability can be controlled either by the introduction of higher-order nonlinear terms with appropriate coefficients or by restricting the growth of pillars (or grooves) by other means. A number of such ''controlled instability'' models are studied by simulation. For appropriate choice of the parameters used for controlling the instability, these models exhibit intermittent behavior, characterized by multiexponent scaling of height fluctuations, over the time interval during which the instability is active. The behavior found in this regime is very similar to the ''turbulent'' behavior observed in recent simulations of several one- and two-dimensional atomistic models of epitaxial growth.