Financial stocks and political bonds: stock market participation and political behavior in the United States and Britain

This dissertation investigates the effect of stock market participation on political behavior. Some observers claim that financial assets—stocks and mutual funds—have a causal effect on political behavior. The “investor class theory” asserts that as people invest in the stock market their partisan attachments shift rightward. The “asset effect theory” claims that financial investments increase political interest and participation. I examine these claims with longitudinal data from the United States and Great Britain covering a twenty-year period from the early 1980s through the mid-2000’s. I also examine the effect of financial asset ownership on political attitudes in the United States during the 2008 stock market crash. I find no evidence to support the argument that stock market participation has any causal effect on partisanship, participation, or political attitudes.

Basic personal values underlie and give coherence to political values: A cross national study in 15 countries

Do the political values of the general public form a coherent system? What might be the source of coherence? We view political values as expressions, in the political domain, of more basic personal values. Basic personal values (e.g., security, achievement, benevolence, hedonism) are organized on a circular continuum that reflects their conflicting and compatible motivations. We theorize that this circular motivational structure also gives coherence to political values. We assess this theorizing with data from 15 countries, using eight core political values (e.g., free enterprise, law and order) and ten basic personal values. We specify the underlying basic values expected to promote or oppose each political value. We offer different hypotheses for the 12 non-communist and three post-communist countries studied, where the political context suggests different meanings of a basic or political value. Correlation and regression analyses support almost all hypotheses. Moreover, basic values account for substantially more variance in political values than age, gender, education, and income. Multidimensional scaling analyses demonstrate graphically how the circular motivational continuum of basic personal values structures relations among core political values. This study strengthens the assumption that individual differences in basic personal values play a critical role in political thought.

Political Socialisation

The process of political socialisation (PS) has been classically defined as the “learning of social patterns corresponding to [an individual’s] societal position as mediated through various agencies of society” (Hyman, 1959, p. 25). Distinguishing PS from other types of socialisation (e.g. ethnic, cultural), this definition still serves as the foundation for the majority of empirical research in this area, despite methodological advances and new attention to previously under researched aspects of PS. As it was assumed that PS was relatively stable throughout life, early research focused on analysing this process during early childhood (Merelman, 1986). However, more recent studies found that ideas and attitudes acquired during childhood change through emerging adulthood due to multiple factors, such as personality, maturation and past experiences (“Beyond Political Socialization,” 2014). Therefore, current research has expanded beyond the effects of the classic socialisation agents (i.e., parents, peers, school) to include other relevant factors such as overarching context and individual cognitive development. Yet, the research to date offers a fragmented perspective of the process with heterogeneous results related to PS outcomes (e.g., voting behaviour, political engagement, identities, intergroup attitudes, prejudice, discrimination, etc.). This fact highlights the need for further research from childhood through emerging adulthood that also considers a wider-range of multiple socialisation agents, the over-arching context, and a greater numbers of outcomes related PS processes.

The Effect of Weight on the Perception of Political Candidates

Chris Christie recently visited the famous “Wailing Wall” in Jerusalem, Israel, during his first trip abroad as governor of New Jersey. The New York Post reported on his trip with the headline “The Whale at the Wall” (Campanile 2012). Given headlines like this, it is easy to see anecdotal evidence of the stigmatization that surrounds obesity within contemporary American society. What’s more important is that these social stigmas that Americans are faced with every day are not merely surface level jokes bantered about for a cheap laugh. They are often prejudices that permeate every aspect of human life. Whether it comes to finding a date, looking for a job, or trying to be taken serious by one’s peers, weight is always a topic of concern. In an effort to understand how far entrenched these biases are in society, this thesis studies the ramifications of obesity in politics. In this thesis, I attempt to understand to what extent, if any, obesity matters in regard to candidate appearance, voters' choices, and political behavior.

Do Institutional Participatory Projects Contribute to the Development of Political Capabilities?

Participation usually sets off from the bottom up, taking the form of more or less enduring forms of collective action with varying degrees of infl uence. However, a number of projects have been launched by political institutions in the last decades with a view to engaging citizens in public affairs and developing their democratic habits, as well as those of the administration. This paper analyses the political qualifying capacity of the said projects, i.e. whether participating in them qualifi es individuals to behave as active citizens; whether these projects foster greater orientation towards public matters, intensify (or create) political will, and provide the necessary skills and expertise to master this will. To answer these questions, data from the comparative analysis of fi ve participatory projects in France and Spain are used, shedding light on which features of these participatory projects contribute to the formation of political subjects and in which way. Finally, in order to better understand this formative dimension, the formative capacity of institutional projects is compared with the formative dimension of other forms of participation spontaneously developed by citizens.

Disentangling Discrimination: The Impact of Political and Societal Discrimination on Democratic (Dis)Engagement

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Civil conflict and voting behavior : evidence from Colombia

¿Cuáles son los efectos de la guerra sobre el comportamiento político? Colombia es un caso interesante en el que el conflicto y las elecciones coexisten y los grupos armados ilegales intencionalmente afectan los resultados electorales. Sin embargo, los grupos usan diferentes estrategias para alterar estos resultados. Este artículo argumenta que los efectos diferenciales de la violencia sobre los resultados electorales son el resultado de estrategias deliberadas de los grupos ilegales, que a su turno, son consecuencia de las condiciones militares que difieren entre ellos. Usando datos panel de las elecciones al Senado de 1994 a 2006 y una aproximación por variables instrumentales para resolver posibles problemas de endogenidad, este artículo muestra que la violencia guerrillera disminuye la participación electoral, mientras que la violencia paramilitar no tiene ningún efecto sobre la participación pero reduce la competencia electoral y beneficia a nuevos partidos no-tradicionales. Esto es consistente con la hipótesis de que la estrategia de la guerrilla es sabotear las elecciones, mientras que los paramiltares establecen alianzas con ciertos candidatos.

Collective futures: How projections about the future of society are related to actions and attitudes supporting social change

We identified the active ingredients in people’s visions of society’s future (“collective futures”) that could drive political behavior in the present. In eight studies (N = 595), people imagined society in 2050 where climate change was mitigated (Study 1), abortion laws relaxed (Study 2), marijuana legalized (Study 3), or the power of different religious groups had increased (Studies 4-8). Participants rated how this future society would differ from today in terms of societal-level dysfunction and development (e.g., crime, inequality, education, technology), people’s character (warmth, competence, morality), and their values (e.g., conservation, self-transcendence). These measures were related to present-day attitudes/intentions that would promote/prevent this future (e.g., act on climate change, vote for a Muslim politician). A projection about benevolence in society (i.e., warmth/morality of people’s character) was the only dimension consistently and uniquely associated with present-day attitudes and intentions across contexts. Implications for social change theories, political communication, and policy design are discussed.

Q-evankeliumi ja psykohistoria : Uuden testamentin eksegetiikan väitöskirja

In the course of my research for my thesis The Q Gospel and Psychohistory, I moved on from the accounts of the Cynics ideals to psychohistorical explanations. Studying the texts dealing with the Cynics and the Q Gospel, I was amazed by the fact that these texts actually portrayed people living in greater poverty than they had to. I paid particular attention to the fact that the Q Gospel was born in traumatising, warlike circumstances. Psychiatric traumatology helped me understand the Q Gospel and other ancient documents using historical approaches in a way that would comply with modern behavioural science. Even though I found some answers to the questions I had posed in my research, the main result of my research work is the justification of the question: Is it important to ask whether there is a connection between the ethos expressed by means of the religious language of the Q Gospel and the predominantly war-related life experiences typical to Palestine at the time. As has been convincingly revealed by a number of studies, traumatic events contribute to the development of psychotic experiences. I approached the problematic nature, significance and complexity of the ideal of poverty and this warlike environment by clarifying the history of psychohistorical literary research and the interpretative contexts associated with Sigmund Freud, Jacques Lacan and Melanie Klein. It is justifiable to question abnormal mentality, but there is no reliable return from the abnormal mentality described in any particular text to the only affecting factor. The popular research tendency based on the Oedipus complex is just as controversial as the Oedipus complex itself. The sociological frameworks concerning moral panics and political paranoia of an outer and inner danger fit quite well with the construction of the Q Gospel. Jerrold M. Post, M.D., Professor of Psychiatry, Political Psychology and Interna-tional Affairs at George Washington University, and founder and director of the Center for the Analysis of Personality and Political Behavior for the Central Intelligence Agency, has focused on the role played by charisma in the attracting of followers and detailed the psychological styles of a "charismatic" leader. He wrote the books Political Paranoia and Leaders and Their Followers in a Dangerous World: the Psychology of Political Behavior among others. His psychoanalytic vocabulary was useful for my understanding of the minds and motivations involved in the Q Gospel s formation. The Q sect began to live in a predestined future, with the reality and safety of this world having collapsed in both their experience and their fantasies. The deep and clear-cut divisions into good and evil that are expressed in the Q Gospel reveal the powerful nature of destructive impulses, envy and overwhelming anxiety. Responsible people who influenced the Q Gospel's origination tried to mount an ascetic defense against anxiety, denying their own needs, focusing their efforts on another objective (God s Kingdom) and a regressive, submissive earlier phase of development (a child s carelessness). This spiritual process was primarily an ecclesiastic or group-dynamical tactic to give support to the power of group leaders.

Democracia eletrônica para quem? : Quem são, o que querem e como os cidadãos avaliam o portal da Câmara dos Deputados

A dissertação busca responder em que medida todas as possibilidades de interação ofertadas pelo Portal da Câmara dos Deputados atendem às necessidades de interação política dos cidadãos que utilizam estes novos canais. Quem são os usuários destas novas ferramentas? Qual a avaliação que eles fazem destes novos canais? Qual é a opinião deles sobre as possibilidades de participação eletrônica? O principal aspecto teórico abordado nesta dissertação é a seguinte discussão: a internet replica formas de participação tradicionais ou é realmente capaz de fazer com que mais cidadãos, incluindo aqueles que estão alheios e desinteressados, participem? Essas questões foram direcionadas ao Portal da Câmara dos Deputados do Brasil, que, ao longo dos últimos anos, soube adaptar-se e promover um espaço de amplo acesso a informações legislativas, com capacidade de contato e interação entre o cidadão e o seu representante e é considerado, atualmente, o melhor portal legislativo da América do Sul. A dissertação utilizou duas metodologias distintas. A primeira consistiu em analisar as estatísticas de acesso ao Portal, identificando assim os padrões de acesso: os sites de referência e os caminhos de busca através dos quais se chega ao Portal. A segunda consistiu na condução de um Web Survey para coletar a opinião dos usuários. O questionário aplicado teve como objetivo coletar avaliações das ferramentas disponibilizadas pelo Portal, identificar o perfil dos usuários e compreender-lhes o comportamento político no mundo off-line. Um dos principais achados é o de que a Democracia Eletrônica desenvolvida pelo Portal da Câmara dos Deputados tem servido mais aos profissionais da política que ao cidadão comum. Mas, mesmo assim, o cidadão comum, interessado em buscar participação, contato e interação com os atores políticos, está procurando essas ferramentas on-line. Palavras chaves: Democracia Eletrônica, Câmara dos Deputados, pesquisa on-line, estatísticas de acesso.

Velhas Raposas, novos governistas : o PMDB e a democracia brasileira

O objetivo desta pesquisa foi analisar de forma aprofundada um dos principais atores políticos da atual democracia brasileira: o Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (PMDB). Mais especificamente, buscou-se responder a seguinte pergunta: como um partido criado para ser a oposição legal ao regime ditatorial se tornou um partido governista com o retorno à democracia? Para compreender a mudança de comportamento desta organização, em primeiro lugar foi analisada a sua importância para a formação de coalizões governamentais. A sua posição de centro no espectro político brasileiro e a sua ampla presença no Congresso Nacional o torna um parceiro ideal para a formação de maiorias parlamentares. Em segundo lugar, foi analisada a importância da participação no governo para o PMDB. Suas características de centralidade e peso foram investigadas desde a sua origem, antes mesmo do MDB, no antigo PSD. Heterogeneidade, federalização, moderação e bom desempenho eleitoral são as principais causas, herdadas do MDB e do PSD, da formação destas características na década de 1980. Contudo, o retorno à democracia impôs um novo contexto político à organização e a necessidade de se adaptar a ele. Ao longo da década de 1990 o partido sofreu uma conversão institucional e um grupo particular, o governista, tomou a frente de sua direção. Dados eleitorais, de apresentação de emendas individuais ao orçamento e entrevistas com membros do partido fornecem mais informações sobre o comportamento político e as transformações sofridas pela sigla.

Brasil e México frente aos Estados Unidos: crises bilaterais assimétricas e coalizões domésticas de política externa

Os desequilíbrios na escala de capacidades militares, econômicas, tecnológicas, de território e população entre Estados formalmente soberanos configuram um sistema internacional de relações assimétricas que pressupõe desafios relativamente maiores para as políticas externas dos países periféricos. Entretanto, em contextos de assimetria em uma relação bilateral, é possível constatar que a parte fraca pode, sob certas condições, sustentar com sucesso preferências divergentes das formuladas pela contraparte mais forte. Esta é uma pesquisa histórica comparativa que, através da comparação entre casos de divergência e crise na história das relações bilaterais do Brasil e do México frente aos Estados Unidos, se propõe a indagar que condições permitem a sustentação das preferências formuladas pelos governantes da parte mais fraca de uma díade assimétrica. Uma afirmação central desta pesquisa postula que variáveis de política doméstica devem ser levadas em conta para explicar o sucesso da parte fraca, em particular, a formação de coalizões de apoio à política externa amplas, plurais e heterogêneas. A comparação inclui casos de sucesso e insucesso na sustentação de preferências formuladas pelos governos do Brasil e do México, de forma a avaliar a presença ou ausência desse tipo de coalizão em cada conjuntura. A partir da consulta de estudos prévios, jornais e revistas publicadas nas respectivas épocas, arquivos diplomáticos e documentos oficiais, foi possível mapear o omportamento de atores relevantes para a política externa em cada caso e avaliar sua adesão ou não às preferências postuladas pelos responsáveis da condução da política externa. A inclusão na análise de duas conjunturas de alinhamento dos governantes do Brasil e do México com as preferências de Washington permitiu afirmar a importância do apoio interno para a sustentação de preferências capazes de gerar clivagens muito intensas no âmbito das relações do Brasil e do México frente aos Estados Unidos.