A stochastic programming approach for the development of offering strategies for a wind power producer

A stochastic programming approach is proposed in this paper for the development of offering strategies for a wind power producer. The optimization model is characterized by making the analysis of several scenarios and treating simultaneously two kinds of uncertainty: wind power and electricity market prices. The approach developed allows evaluating alternative production and offers strategies to submit to the electricity market with the ultimate goal of maximizing profits. An innovative comparative study is provided, where the imbalances are treated differently. Also, an application to two new realistic case studies is presented. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Optimal offering strategies for wind power producers considering uncertainty and risk

This paper provides a two-stage stochastic programming approach for the development of optimal offering strategies for wind power producers. Uncertainty is related to electricity market prices and wind power production. A hybrid intelligent approach, combining wavelet transform, particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, is used in this paper to generate plausible scenarios. Also, risk aversion is explicitly modeled using the conditional value-at-risk methodology. Results from a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal, are provided and analyzed. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Endoscopic ampullectomy: a technical review

Background and aim: This article provides a practical review to undertaking safe endoscopic ampullectomy and highlights some of the common difficulties with this technique as well as offering strategies to deal with these challenges. Methods: We conducted a review of studies regarding endoscopic ampullectomy for ampullary neoplasms with special focus on techniques. Results: Accurate preoperative diagnosis and staging of ampullary tumors is imperative for predicting prognosis and determining the most appropriate therapeutic approach. The optimal technique for endoscopic ampullectomy is dependent on the lesions size. En bloc resection is recommended for lesions confined to the papilla. There is no significant evidence to support the submucosal injection before ampullectomy. There is no consensus regarding the optimal current and power output for endoscopic ampulectomy. The benefits of a thermal adjunctive therapy remain controversial. A prophylactic pancreatic stent reduces the incidence and severity of pancreatitis post-ampullectomy. Conclusions: Endoscopic ampullectomy is a safe and efficacious therapeutic procedure for papillary adenomas in experienced endoscopist and it can avoid the need for surgical intervention.

Coordinated Scheduling of Wind-Thermal Gencos in Day-Ahead Markets

This paper presents a stochastic mixed-integer linear programming approach for solving the self-scheduling problem of a price-taker thermal and wind power producer taking part in a pool-based electricity market. Uncertainty on electricity price and wind power is considered through a set of scenarios. Thermal units are modeled by variable costs, start-up costs and technical operating constraints, such as: ramp up/down limits and minimum up/down time limits. An efficient mixed-integer linear program is presented to develop the offering strategies of the coordinated production of thermal and wind energy generation, aiming to maximize the expected profit. A case study with data from the Iberian Electricity Market is presented and results are discussed to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Bidding strategy of wind-thermal energy producers

This paper presents a stochastic mixed-integer linear programming approach for solving the self-scheduling problem of a price-taker thermal and wind power producer taking part in a pool-based electricity market. Uncertainty on electricity price and wind power is considered through a set of scenarios. Thermal units are modelled by variable costs, start-up costs and technical operating constraints, such as: forbidden operating zones, ramp up/down limits and minimum up/down time limits. An efficient mixed-integer linear program is presented to develop the offering strategies of the coordinated production of thermal and wind energy generation, having as a goal the maximization of profit. A case study with data from the Iberian Electricity Market is presented and results are discussed to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Achieving the millennium development goals for health - Cost effectiveness analysis of strategies for. maternal and neonatal health in developing countries

Objective To determine the costs and benefits of interventions for maternal and newborn health to assess the appropriateness of current strategies and guide future plans to attain the millennium development goals. Design Cost effectiveness analysis. Setting Two regions classified by the World Health Organization according to their epidemiological grouping: Afr-E, those countries in sub-Saharan Africa with very high adult and high child mortality, and Sear-D, comprising countries in South East Asia with high adult and high child mortality. Data sources Effectiveness data from several sources, including trials, observational studies, and expert opinion. For resource inputs, quantifies came from WHO guidelines, literature, and expert opinion, and prices from the WHO choosing interventions that are cost effective database. Main outcome measures Cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted in year 2000 international dollars. Results The most cost effective mix of interventions was similar in Afr-E and Sear-D. These were the community based newborn care package, followed by antenatal care (tetanus toxoid, screening for pre-eclampsia, screening and treatment of asymptomatic bacteriuria and syphilis); skilled attendance at birth, offering first level maternal and neonatal care around childbirth; and emergency obstetric and neonatal care around and after birth. Screening and treatment of maternal syphilis, community based management of neonatal pneumonia, and steroids given during the antenatal period were relatively less cost effective in Sear-D. Scaling up all of the included interventions to 95% coverage would halve neonatal and maternal deaths. Conclusion Preventive interventions at the community level for newborn babies and at the primary care level for mothers and newborn babies are extremely cost effective, but the millennium development goals for maternal and child health will not be achieved without universal access to clinical services as well.

Can Mobile Units Improve the Strategies for Cervical Cancer Prevention?

Cervical cancer is a serious public health problem in women in developing countries because of absence or ineffectiveness of screening programs. Several biases to access medical care and inequity of public health system in a continental country like Brazil limit the implementation of adequate programs to appropriately prevent the cervical cancer. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the results of applying the mobile unit (MU) for cervical cancer screening. From May 2003 to May 2004, a cervical cancer screening was offered to women aged 20-69 years, residing in 19 municipal districts of the Barretos county region, in Sao Paulo. Out of the 9,560 examination available, 2,964 (31%) women underwent screening. The medium distance traveled by the MU was 45 km. The medium time spent by women in the MU for completion of the questionnaire and doing the exam was 20 minutes. It was observed that 17.0% of women screened had never had the test or had not had it repeated within the last 3 years. The negative response was more common among women aged 20 to 29 years and 60 to 69 years and among women with less schooling and lower socio-economic income (P < 0.05). MU can significantly overcome the chronic deficiency of public health system accessibility offering opportunity to these women to participate in screening programs. Diagn. Cytopathol. 2010;38:727-730. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Strategies for the successful implementation of viral laboratory automation.

It has been estimated that more than 70% of all medical activity is directly related to information providing analytical data. Substantial technological advances have taken place recently, which have allowed a previously unimagined number of analytical samples to be processed while offering high quality results. Concurrently, yet more new diagnostic determinations have been introduced - all of which has led to a significant increase in the prescription of analytical parameters. This increased workload has placed great pressure on the laboratory with respect to health costs. The present manager of the Clinical Laboratory (CL) has had to examine cost control as well as rationing - meaning that the CL's focus has not been strictly metrological, as if it were purely a system producing results, but instead has had to concentrate on its efficiency and efficacy. By applying re-engineering criteria, an emphasis has had to be placed on improved organisation and operating practice within the CL, focussing on the current criteria of the Integrated Management Areas where the technical and human resources are brought together. This re-engineering has been based on the concepts of consolidating and integrating the analytical platforms, while differentiating the production areas (CORE Laboratory) from the information areas. With these present concepts in mind, automation and virological treatment, along with serology in general, follow the same criteria as the rest of the operating methodology in the Clinical Laboratory.

Industrial solution business – transition from product to solution offering

The business logic in the manufacturing industry has changed in the 21st century. In the current industrial market, manufacturers are driven to provide more comprehensive offerings that go beyond the traditional product-orientation by providing capacity and availability for their customers. From incidental merchandise, services have become the core of manufacturers’ offerings with long-lasting service agreements over the life-cycles of their products. This change is driven both by the need of providers to grow and gain competitive advantage and by increased customer demand caused by customers’ outsourcing trends. The three key drivers for manufacturers’ service strategies are outsourcing trends, saturation of the installed base, and commoditization in product markets. Thus, manufacturers focus on providing industrial solutions which are delivered through relational processes with customers by using solution-driven business models. In the management of marketing activities, this can be regarded as closer customer relationships, service-dominant business logic, and collaboration in solving customers’ problems. However, there are few studies on comprehensive conceptualizations of a solution offering that include different elements and their roles, especially in the context of capital goods industry. Also the transition process needs further studies in a real life context. This study explores the transition process of an industrial company from product to solution business and, as an aid to managing the solution business, explicates the structure and management of an industrial solution offering. There are two themes, the industrial transition process and industrial solution offering. Regarding the industrial transition process, the aim is to understand the supplier view on the process and its execution and to determine the challenges related to the transition process. The industrial solution offering is discussed by its elements and characteristics, as well as management. Furthermore, a special type of build-own-operate-transfer business model is presented and its suitability in the industrial context analyzed. The study includes findings achieved by qualitative methods and from four case companies. Based on the results, it is tentatively suggested that in the industrial solution business, the transition from product to solution business is not a linear project but an evolving process that varies according to customer needs, which suggests that companies need to possess an ability to develop new business models for different customer needs. The industrial solution offering is dynamic as it evolves in collaboration according to the prevailing and latent customer needs, which suggest restructuring of the organization from a product-centric to a customer-centric one. Furthermore, based on the findings, the concept of industrial solutions is defined as an ongoing relational process to satisfy a customer’s particular business or operational requirements, and the concept of industrial solution offering as an entity comprising the customized goods, services, collaboration, and finance needed to fulfill the industrial solution. Finally, the study offers several managerial implications for industrial managers involved in the transition and management of the solution business and its offering.

Currency Carry Trades – Excess Returns and Performance Optimization of G10 Currency Carry Trade Strategies during the Euro Era

This study examines the excess returns provided by G10 currency carry trading during the Euro era. The currency carry trade has been a popular trade throughout the past decades offering excess returns to investors. The thesis aims to contribute to existing research on the topic by utilizing a new set of data for the Euro era as well as using the Euro as a basis for the study. The focus of the thesis is specifically on different carry trade strategies’ performance, risk and diversification benefits. The study finds proof of the failure of the uncovered interest rate parity theory through multiple regression analyses. Furthermore, the research finds evidence of significant diversification benefits in terms of Sharpe ratio and improved return distributions. The results suggest that currency carry trades have offered excess returns during 1999-2014 and that volatility plays an important role in carry trade returns. The risk, however, is diversifiable and therefore our results support previous quantitative research findings on the topic.

Strategies for combating gendered perceptions of careers

Purpose – Earlier work on career choice has identified that career choice involves gendered processes which lead to differentiated career outcomes for women and men. However, this literature remained anaemic in offering career counselling strategies for addressing the negative impacts of these processes. The paper aims to explore the creativity cycle and other tools derived from personal construct psychology (PCP) and other feminist literature as potential means for dissolving gendered perceptions of various professions and organisational practices. Design/methodology/approach – This is a conceptual paper. Findings – The paper argues that PCP can provide a theoretical and methodological framework for discussing how dichotomous and gender identified the perceptions of professions can be and how such perceptions might be challenged. Practical implications – This theory and its techniques allow us an exploration of the flexibility of one’s constructions system, which determines a person’s ability to construe alternative views and to develop new ways of understanding oneself and others. Originality/value – The PCP’s potential as a technique to combat gendered perceptions of a career is examined.

Library Privacy Policies in 2015: Strategies for Renewed Relevance

In recent decades, library associations have advocated for the adoption of privacy and confidentiality policies as practical support to the Library Code of Ethics with a threefold purpose to (1) define and uphold privacy practices within the library, (2) convey privacy practices to patrons and, (3) protect against potential liability and public relations problems. The adoption of such policies has been instrumental in providing libraries with effective responses to surveillance initiatives such as warrantless requests and the USA PATRIOT ACT. Nevertheless, as reflected in recent news stories, the rapid emergence of data brokerage relationships and technologies and the increasing need for libraries to utilize third party vendor services have increased opportunities for data surveillers to access patrons’ personal information and reading habits, which are funneled and made available through multiple online library service platforms. Additionally, the advice that libraries should “contract for the same level of privacy reflected in their privacy policies” is no longer realistic given that the existence of multiple vendor contracts negotiated at arms length is likely to produce varying privacy terms and even varying definitions of what constitutes personal information (PII). These conditions sharply threaten the effectiveness and relevance of library privacy policies and privacy initiatives in that such policies increasingly offer false comfort by failing to reflect privacy weaknesses in the data sharing landscape and vendor contracts when library-vendor contracts fail to keep up with vendor data sharing capabilities. While some argue that library privacy ethics are antiquated and rendered obscure in the current online sharing economy PEW studies point to pronounced public discomfort with increasing privacy erosion. At the same time, new directions in FTC enforcement raise the possibility that public institutions’ privacy policies may serve as swords to unfair or deceptive commercial trade practices – offering the potential of renewed relevance for library privacy and confidentiality policies. This dual coin of public concern and the potential for enhanced FTC enforcement suggests that when crafting privacy polices libraries must now walk the knife’s edge by offering patrons both realistic notice about the limitations of protections the library can ensure while at the same time publicly holding vendors accountable to library privacy ethics and expectations. Potential solutions for how to walk this edge are developed and offered as a subject for further discussion to assist the modification of model policies for both public and academic libraries alike.

Synthetic strategies of new molecular paramagnetic mechanically-interlocked complexes

Supramolecular chemistry is a multidisciplinary field which impinges on other disciplines, focusing on the systems made up of a discrete number of assembled molecular subunits. The forces responsible for the spatial organization are intermolecular reversible interactions. The supramolecular architectures I was interested in are Rotaxanes, mechanically-interlocked architectures consisting of a "dumbbell shaped molecule", threaded through a "macrocycle" where the stoppers at the end of the dumbbell prevent disassociation of components and catenanes, two or more interlocked macrocycles which cannot be separated without breaking the covalent bonds. The aim is to introduce one or more paramagnetic units to use the ESR spectroscopy to investigate complexation properties of these systems cause this technique works in the same time scale of supramolecular assemblies. Chapter 1 underlines the main concepts upon which supramolecular chemistry is based, clarifying the nature of supramolecular interactions and the principles of host-guest chemistry. In chapter 2 it is pointed out the use of ESR spectroscopy to investigate the properties of organic non-covalent assemblies in liquid solution by spin labels and spin probes. The chapter 3 deals with the synthesis of a new class of p-electron-deficient tetracationic cyclophane ring, carrying one or two paramagnetic side-arms based on 2,2,6,6-tetramethylpiperidine-N-oxyl (TEMPO) moiety. In the chapter 4, the Huisgen 1,3-dipolar cycloaddition is exploited to synthesize rotaxanes having paramagnetic cyclodextrins as wheels. In the chapter 5, the catalysis of Huisgen’s cycloaddition by CB[6] is exploited to synthesize paramagnetic CB[6]-based [3]-rotaxanes. In the chapter 6 I reported the first preliminary studies of Actinoid series as a new class of templates in catenanes’ synthesis. Being f-block elements, so having the property of expanding the valence state, they constitute promising candidates as chemical templates offering the possibility to create a complex with coordination number beyond 6.

Electrochemical sensing strategies for the detection of interactions between biological macromolecules

Electrochemical biosensors provide an attractive means to analyze the content of a biological sample due to the direct conversion of a biological event to an electronic signal, enabling the development of cheap, small, portable and simple devices, that allow multiplex and real-time detection. At the same time nanobiotechnology is drastically revolutionizing the biosensors development and different transduction strategies exploit concepts developed in these field to simplify the analysis operations for operators and end users, offering higher specificity, higher sensitivity, higher operational stability, integrated sample treatments and shorter analysis time. The aim of this PhD work has been the application of nanobiotechnological strategies to electrochemical biosensors for the detection of biological macromolecules. Specifically, one project was focused on the application of a DNA nanotechnology called hybridization chain reaction (HCR), to amplify the hybridization signal in an electrochemical DNA biosensor. Another project on which the research activity was focused concerns the development of an electrochemical biosensor based on a biological model membrane anchored to a solid surface (tBLM), for the recognition of interactions between the lipid membrane and different types of target molecules.

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.