Adaptive learning in multiagent systems: a forecasting methodology based on error analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simu-lator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM pro-vides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Net-work, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.

Analysis and design of multiagent systems using MAS-CommonKADS

This article proposes an agent-oriented methodology called MAS-CommonKADS and develops a case study. This methodology extends the knowledge engineering methodology CommonKADSwith techniquesfrom objectoriented and protocol engineering methodologies. The methodology consists of the development of seven models: Agent Model, that describes the characteristics of each agent; Task Model, that describes the tasks that the agents carry out; Expertise Model, that describes the knowledge needed by the agents to achieve their goals; Organisation Model, that describes the structural relationships between agents (software agents and/or human agents); Coordination Model, that describes the dynamic relationships between software agents; Communication Model, that describes the dynamic relationships between human agents and their respective personal assistant software agents; and Design Model, that refines the previous models and determines the most suitable agent architecture for each agent, and the requirements of the agent network.

Knowledge Modelling in Multiagent Systems: The Case of the Management of a National Network

This paper presents the knowledge model of a distributed decision support system, that has been designed for the management of a national network in Ukraine. It shows how advanced Artificial Intelligence techniques (multiagent systems and knowledge modelling) have been applied to solve this real-world decision support problem: on the one hand its distributed nature, implied by different loci of decision-making at the network nodes, suggested to apply a multiagent solution; on the other, due to the complexity of problem-solving for local network administration, it was useful to apply knowledge modelling techniques, in order to structure the different knowledge types and reasoning processes involved. The paper sets out from a description of our particular management problem. Subsequently, our agent model is described, pointing out the local problem-solving and coordination knowledge models. Finally, the dynamics of the approach is illustrated by an example.

Ontological Approach to Domain Knowledge Representation for Information Retrieval in Multiagent Systems

An ontological representation of buyer interests’ knowledge in process of e-commerce is proposed to use. It makes it more efficient to make a search of the most appropriate sellers via multiagent systems. An algorithm of a comparison of buyer ontology with one of e-shops (the taxonomies) and an e-commerce multiagent system are realised using ontology of information retrieval in distributed environment.

Analysis of P-Systems under a Multiagent Systems Perspective

Membrane computing is a recent area that belongs to natural computing. This field works on computational models based on nature's behavior to process the information. Recently, numerous models have been developed and implemented with this purpose. P-systems are the structures which have been defined, developed and implemented to simulate the behavior and the evolution of membrane systems which we find in nature. What we show in this paper is an application capable to simulate the P-systems based on a multiagent systems (MAS) technology. The main goal we want to achieve is to take advantage of the inner qualities of the multiagent systems. This way we can analyse the proper functioning of any given p-system. When we observe a P-system from a different perspective, we can be assured that it is a particular case of the multiagent systems. This opens a new possibility, in the future, to always evaluate the P-systems in terms of the multiagent systems technology.

Techniques for distributed theory synthesis in multiagent systems

Data sources are often dispersed geographically in real life applications. Finding a knowledge model may require to join all the data sources and to run a machine learning algorithm on the joint set. We present an alternative based on a Multi Agent System (MAS): an agent mines one data source in order to extract a local theory (knowledge model) and then merges it with the previous MAS theory using a knowledge fusion technique. This way, we obtain a global theory that summarizes the distributed knowledge without spending resources and time in joining data sources. New experiments have been executed including statistical significance analysis. The results show that, as a result of knowledge fusion, the accuracy of initial theories is significantly improved as well as the accuracy of the monolithic solution.

An Ontology-based Approach to Student Skills in Multiagent e-Learning Systems

The main idea of our approach is that the domain ontology is not only the instrument of learning but an object of examining student skills. We propose for students to build the domain ontology of examine discipline and then compare it with etalon one. Analysis of student mistakes allows to propose them personalized recommendations and to improve the course materials in general. For knowledge interoperability we apply Semantic Web technologies. Application of agent-based technologies in e-learning provides the personification of students and tutors and saved all users from the routine operations.

Multiagent system for adaptive strategy formulation in electricity markets

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. MASCEM is a market simulator developed to allow deep studies of the interactions between the players that take part in the electricity market negotiations. This paper presents a new proposal for the definition of MASCEM players’ strategies to negotiate in the market. The proposed methodology is multiagent based, using reinforcement learning algorithms to provide players with the capabilities to perceive the changes in the environment, while adapting their bids formulation according to their needs, using a set of different techniques that are at their disposal.

Training control centers' operators in incident diagnosis and power restoration using intelligent tutoring systems

The activity of Control Center operators is important to guarantee the effective performance of Power Systems. Operators’ actions are crucial to deal with incidents, especially severe faults like blackouts. In this paper, we present an Intelligent Tutoring approach for training Portuguese Control Center operators in tasks like incident analysis and diagnosis, and service restoration of Power Systems. Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS) approach is used in the training of the operators, having into account context awareness and the unobtrusive integration in the working environment. Several Artificial Intelligence techniques were criteriously used and combined together to obtain an effective Intelligent Tutoring environment, namely Multiagent Systems, Neural Networks, Constraint-based Modeling, Intelligent Planning, Knowledge Representation, Expert Systems, User Modeling, and Intelligent User Interfaces.

Belief Revision in Multi-Agent Systems

The ability to respond sensibly to changing and conflicting beliefs is an integral part of intelligent agency. To this end, we outline the design and implementation of a Distributed Assumption-based Truth Maintenance System (DATMS) appropriate for controlling cooperative problem solving in a dynamic real world multi-agent community. Our DATMS works on the principle of local coherence which means that different agents can have different perspectives on the same fact provided that these stances are appropriately justified. The belief revision algorithm is presented, the meta-level code needed to ensure that all system-wide queries can be uniquely answered is described, and the DATMS’ implementation in a general purpose multi-agent shell is discussed.

Multiagent System Architecture for Short-term Operation of Integrated Microgrids

The forthcoming smart grids are comprised of integrated microgrids operating in grid-connected and isolated mode with local generation, storage and demand response (DR) programs. The proposed model is based on three successive complementary steps for power transaction in the market environment. The first step is characterized as a microgrid’s internal market; the second concerns negotiations between distinct interconnected microgrids; and finally, the third refers to the actual electricity market. The proposed approach is modeled and tested using a MAS framework directed to the study of the smart grids environment, including the simulation of electricity markets. This is achieved through the integration of the proposed approach with the MASGriP (Multi-Agent Smart Grid Platform) system.