Supporting Students with Learning Disabilities to Explore Linear Relationships using Online Learning Objects. 'Apoyando a estudiantes con problemas de aprendizaje para explorar relaciones lineales mediante el uso de objetos de aprendizaje en línea'.

Resumen basado en el de la publicación

A critical analysis of the ubiquity of linear local-regional richness relationships

Synthesis Despite theoretical criticisms, the ubiquity of linear relationships between local and regional species richness has long been used to justify it as a valid framework to conclude that local communities are not saturated with species. However, we reanalyzed published studies with a new unbiased method and found no prevalence of linear relationships and more than 40% of misclassifications, including textbook examples. We thus conclude that the prevailing argument in favor of associating a valid ecological interpretation to local-regional species richness plots, its ubiquity, is not sustained, and that ecologists could use for instance metacommunity theory to make inference on the strength of local and regional processes. Identifying the relative importance of regional and local processes to local species diversity is a central issue to many questions in basic and applied ecology. One widely-used method is to plot local species richness against its regional richness to infer whether regional or local processes determine local diversity. However, this method increases the tendency to find regional prevalence as suggested by a recent simulation. We reanalyzed studies in the literature with an unbiased method and found no prevalence of either regional or local processes. In addition, almost 40% of the studies and 50% of the ecology textbook examples using the traditional method were misclassified. Our findings reinforce the need of alternative, novel tools identified by for instance metacommunity theory to go beyond the studies of local-regional relationships in the ecological literature that focus on the interdependence of regional and local processes.© 2013 The Authors. Oikos © 2013 Nordic Society Oikos.

Species richness, abundance, and body size relationships from a neotropical chironomid assemblage: Looking for patterns

We investigated two of the most studied relationships in the macroecological research program (species richness vs. body size and abundance vs. body size) of a local chironomid assemblage from southeastern Brazil. Although numerous Studies have examined these relationships, few have investigated how they vary at different temporal scales. We used data from a forested stream to document and examine these patterns at monthly intervals. Both the species body size distribution and the abundance-body size relationship varied temporally. In some months the body size distribution was skewed to the right. whereas in others it approached normality. We Found both linear relationships (with different values of slopes). and a polygonal pattern in the abundance-body size relationship. This temporal variation was not related to environmental variables. Our results suggest that body size relationships are temporally instable properties of this chironomid assemblage. (C) 2007 Gesellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

A meta-analysis of cambium phenology and growth: linear and non-linear patterns in conifers of the northern hemisphere

Background and Aims Ongoing global warming has been implicated in shifting phenological patterns such as the timing and duration of the growing season across a wide variety of ecosystems. Linear models are routinely used to extrapolate these observed shifts in phenology into the future and to estimate changes in associated ecosystem properties such as net primary productivity. Yet, in nature, linear relationships may be special cases. Biological processes frequently follow more complex, non-linear patterns according to limiting factors that generate shifts and discontinuities, or contain thresholds beyond which responses change abruptly. This study investigates to what extent cambium phenology is associated with xylem growth and differentiation across conifer species of the northern hemisphere. Methods Xylem cell production is compared with the periods of cambial activity and cell differentiation assessed on a weekly time scale on histological sections of cambium and wood tissue collected from the stems of nine species in Canada and Europe over 1–9 years per site from 1998 to 2011. Key Results The dynamics of xylogenesis were surprisingly homogeneous among conifer species, although dispersions from the average were obviously observed. Within the range analysed, the relationships between the phenological timings were linear, with several slopes showing values close to or not statistically different from 1. The relationships between the phenological timings and cell production were distinctly non-linear, and involved an exponential pattern. Conclusions The trees adjust their phenological timings according to linear patterns. Thus, shifts of one phenological phase are associated with synchronous and comparable shifts of the successive phases. However, small increases in the duration of xylogenesis could correspond to a substantial increase in cell production. The findings suggest that the length of the growing season and the resulting amount of growth could respond differently to changes in environmental conditions.

Non-linear principal components analysis: an alternative method for finding patterns in environmental data

The main purpose of this article is to gain an insight into the relationships between variables describing the environmental conditions of the Far Northern section of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, Several of the variables describing these conditions had different measurement levels and often they had non-linear relationships. Using non-linear principal component analysis, it was possible to acquire an insight into these relationships. Furthermore. three geographical areas with unique environmental characteristics could be identified. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Statnote 19: non-linear regression: fitting an exponential curve to data

Non-linear relationships are common in microbiological research and often necessitate the use of the statistical techniques of non-linear regression or curve fitting. In some circumstances, the investigator may wish to fit an exponential model to the data, i.e., to test the hypothesis that a quantity Y either increases or decays exponentially with increasing X. This type of model is straight forward to fit as taking logarithms of the Y variable linearises the relationship which can then be treated by the methods of linear regression.

Relationships between fundus image quantification and visual field status in age-related macular degeneration

Presentation Purpose:To relate structural change to functional change in age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in a cross-sectional population using fundus imaging and the visual field status. Methods:10 degree standard and SWAP visual fields and other standard functional clinical measures were acquired in 44 eyes of 27 patients at various stages of AMD, as well as fundus photographs. Retro-mode SLO images were captured in a subset of 29 eyes of 19 of the patients. Drusen area, measured by automated drusen segmentation software (Smith et al. 2005) was correlated with visual field data. Visual field defect position was compared to the position of the imaged drusen and deposits using custom software. Results:The effect of AMD stage on drusen area within the 6000µm was significant (One-way ANOVA: F = 17.231, p < 0.001), however the trend was not strong across all stages. There were significant linear relationships between visual field parameters and drusen area. The mean deviation (MD) declined by 3.00dB and 3.92dB for each log % drusen area for standard perimetry and SWAP, respectively. The visual field parameters of focal loss displayed the strongest correlations with drusen area. The number of pattern deviation (PD) defects increased by 9.30 and 9.68 defects per log % drusen area for standard perimetry and SWAP, respectively. Weaker correlations were found between drusen area and visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, colour vision and reading speed. 72.6% of standard PD defects and 65.2% of SWAP PD defects coincided with retinal signs of AMD on fundus photography. 67.5% of standard PD defects and 69.7% of SWAP PD defects coincided with deposits on retro-mode images. Conclusions:Perimetry exhibited a stronger relationship with drusen area than other measures of visual function. The structure-function relationship between visual field parameters and drusen area was linear. Overall the indices of focal loss had a stronger correlation with drusen area in SWAP than in standard perimetry. Visual field defects had a high coincidence proportion with retinal manifestations of AMD.Smith R.T. et al. (2005) Arch Ophthalmol 123:200-206.

Partitioning of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the hair-air system

Partitioning behavior of PAHs including NAP, FLO, PHE, and PYR was investigated. A plot of experimental K-HA against log K-OW gives a good linear relationship. A somewhat similar slope and intercept it-as obtained for the hair-air system using PCB values from the literature. In comparison to K-VA values from the literature, lower values for K-VA were obtained. This may be attributed from differences in species and degradability across biota groups. K-HLA also exhibits good linear relationships with K-OA and other physical chemical properties such as W The lipid fraction has a strong influence on bioconcentration in hair from the air and water. However, hair treatments, hair length, growth dilution, photodegradation, biodegradation, temperature, seasonal variations, wet and dry depositions could alter the degree of bioconcentration of PAHs in the hair.

The effects of level of dietary protein on the milk production and rumen physiology of dairy cows fed a diet based on a tropical grass hay

zFour rumen-fistulated, multiparous Holstein-Friesian cows in early lactation were offered mixed diets based on rhodes grass hay (Chloris gayana) cv. Callide containing 13, 14, 15 or 16% crude protein (CP) on a dry matter basis, in a 4 x 4 latin square design. The estimated undegradable protein concentration in these diets was similar with rumen degradable protein concentration varying. Cows fed a diet containing 13% CP had lower (P = 0.07) milk yields than cows in other treatments (20.4 vs 21.9, 22.0 and 22.2 L/d for 13, 14, 15 and 16% CP, respectively). A positive linear relationship was found (P = 0.06) between organic matter intake and dietary CP%. There were negative linear relationships between dietary CP% and digestibilities of dry matter (P = 0.09), organic matter (P = 0.06) and neutral detergent fibre (P = 0.02). Feeding a diet containing 13% CP resulted in significantly lower (P = 0.001) molar proportions (%) of rumen valerate in comparison with other treatments. The molar proportions of isovalerate differed (P = 0.001) between treatments (0.66, 0.78, 0.89 and 1.04%) for 13, 14, 15 and 16% CP, respectively). Dietary protein level had no effect on rates of passage, in situ digestion of rhodes grass hay or ratios of allantoin: creatinine in urine. These data showed that increasing the dietary CP concentration of lactating cows fed diets based on rhodes grass hay increased intakes and not significantly improved at dietary CP concentrations above 14% DM.

Genetic variation in foliar carbon isotope composition in relation to tree growth and foliar nitrogen concentration in clones of the F-1 hybrid between slash pine and Caribbean pine

The objectives of this study were: (1) to quantify the genetic variation in foliar carbon isotope composition (delta(13)C) of 122 clones of ca. 4-year-old F-1 hybrids between slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm var. elliottii) and Caribbean pine (Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis Barr.,et Golf.) grown at two field experimental sites with different water and nitrogen availability in southeast Queensland, Australia, in relation to tree growth and foliar nitrogen concentration (N-mass); and (2) to assess the potential of using delta(13)C measurements, in the foliage materials collected from the clone hedges at nursery and the 4-year-old tree canopies in the field, as an indirect index of tree water use efficiency for selecting elite F-1 hybrid pine clones with improved tree growth. There were significant differences in foliar delta(13)C between the nursery hedges and the 4-year-old tree canopies in the field, between the summer and winter seasons, between the two experimental sites, and between the upper outer and lower outer canopy positions sampled. This indicates that delta(13)C measurements in the foliage materials are significantly influenced by the sampling techniques and environmental conditions. Significant differences in foliar delta(13)C, at the upper outer canopy in both field experiments in summer and winter, were detected between the clones, and between the female parents of the clones. Clone means of tree height at age ca. 3 years were positively related to those of the upper outer canopy delta(13)C at both experimental sites in winter, but only for the wetter site in summer. There were positive, linear relationships between clone means of canopy delta(13)C and those of canopy N-mass, indicating that canopy photosynthetic capacity might be an important factor regulating the clonal variation in canopy delta(13)C. Significant correlations were found between clone means of canopy delta(13)C at both experimental sites in summer and winter, and between those at the upper outer and lower outer canopy positions. Mean clone delta(13)C for the nursery hedges was only positively related to mean clone stem diameter at 1.3 m height at age 3 years on the wetter site. The clone by site interaction for foliar delta(13)C at the upper outer canopy was significant only in summer. Overall, the relatively high genetic variance components for foliar delta(13)C and significant, positive correlations between clone means of foliar delta(13)C and tree growth have highlighted the potential of using foliar delta(13)C measurements for assisting in selection of the elite F-1 hybrid pine clones with improved tree growth. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A practical method of estimating energy expenditure during tennis play

This study aimed to develop a practical method of estimating energy expenditure (EE) during tennis. Twenty-four elite female tennis players first completed a tennis-specific graded test in which five different intensity levels were applied randomly. Each intensity level was intended to simulate a game of singles tennis and comprised six 14 s periods of activity alternated with 20 s of active rest. Oxygen consumption (VO2) and heart rate (HR) were measured continuously and each player's rate of perceived exertion (RPE) was recorded at the end of each intensity level. Rate of energy expenditure (EEVO2) during the test was calculated using the sum of VO2 during play and the 'O-2 debt' during recovery, divided by the duration of the activity. There were significant individual linear relationships between EEVO2 and RPE, EEVO2 and HR, (rgreater than or equal to0.89 rgreater than or equal to0.93; p

Voltammetric analysis of mancozeb and its degradation product ethylenethiourea

The purpose of this work was to develop a reliable alternative method for the determination of the dithiocarbamate pesticide mancozeb (MCZ) in formulations. Furthermore, a method for the analysis of MCZ's major degradation product, ethylenethiourea (ETU), was also proposed. Cyclic voltammetry was used to characterize the electrochemical behavior of MCZ and ETU, and square-wave adsorptive stripping voltammetry (SWAdSV) was employed for MCZ quantification in commercial formulations. It was found that both MCZ and ETU are irreversibly reduced (− 0.6 V and − 0.5 V vs Ag/AgCl, respectively) at the surface of a glassy carbon electrode in a mainly diffusion-controlled process, presenting maximum peak current intensities at pH 7.0 (in phosphate buffered saline electrolyte). Several parameters of the SWAdSV technique were optimized and linear relationships between concentration and peak current intensity were established between 10–90 μmol L− 1 and 10–110 μmol L− 1 for MCZ and ETU, respectively. The limits of detection were 7.0 μmol L− 1 for MCZ and 7.8 μmol L− 1 for ETU. The optimized method for MCZ was successfully applied to the quantification of this pesticide in two commercial formulations. The developed procedures provided accurate and precise results and could be interesting alternatives to the established methods for quality control of the studied products, as well as for analysis of MCZ and ETU in environmental samples.

Disturbed Correlation Between Arterial Resistance and Pulsatility in Glaucoma Patients

PURPOSE: (i) To investigate whether pulsatility index (PI) and mean flow velocities (MFV) are altered in glaucoma patients. (ii) To evaluate the significance of PI in retrobulbar autoregulation capacity. METHODS: Patients with primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG; n = 49), normal tension glaucoma (NTG; n = 62) and healthy controls (n = 48) underwent colour Doppler imaging measurements of the retrobulbar vasculature. Kruskal-Wallis test was used to compare variables between the three diagnostic groups. Restricted cubic splines were used to determine nonlinearities between the resistive index (RI) and PI correlations. RESULTS: Mean flow velocities (MFV) were lower in both short posterior ciliary arteries (SCPA) and central retinal arteries (CRA) from the two glaucoma groups (p < 0.04 versus healthy controls). No differences were detected in RI or PI in any arteries of the three diagnostic groups (p > 0.08). In healthy individuals, correlations between RI and PI were linear in all arteries. In both POAG and NTG patients, CRA presented a nonlinear curve with a cutpoint at RI 0.77 (p < 0.001) and 0.61 (p = 0.03), respectively, above which the slope increased nearly five- and tenfold (POAG: 1.96 to 10.06; NTG: -0.46-4.06), respectively. A nonlinear correlation in the ophthalmic artery was only observed in NTG patients, with a cutpoint at RI 0.82 (p < 0.001), above which the slope increased from 3.47 to 14.03. CONCLUSIONS: Glaucoma patients do not present the linear relationships between RI and PI observed in healthy individuals. Their nonlinear relations may be indicative of an altered autoregulation and suggest a possible threshold RI could be determined above which autoregulatory disturbances become more relevant.

Métodos estatísticos aplicados à modelação de dados oncológicos

RESUMO: A estrutura demográfica portuguesa é marcada por baixas taxas de natalidade e mortalidade, onde a população idosa representa uma fatia cada vez mais representativa, fruto de uma maior longevidade. A incidência do cancro, na sua generalidade, é maior precisamente nessa classe etária. A par de outras doenças igualmente lesivas (e.g. cardiovasculares, degenerativas) cuja incidência aumenta com a idade, o cancro merece relevo. Estudos epidemiológicos apresentam o cancro como líder mundial na mortalidade. Em países desenvolvidos, o seu peso representa 25% do número total de óbitos, percentagem essa que mais que duplica noutros países. A obesidade, a baixa ingestão de frutas e vegetais, o sedentarismo, o consumo de tabaco e a ingestão de álcool, configuram-se como cinco dos fatores de risco presentes em 30% das mortes diagnosticadas por cancro. A nível mundial e, em particular no Sul de Portugal, os cancros do estômago, recto e cólon apresentam elevadas taxas de incidência e de mortalidade. Do ponto de vista estritamente económico, o cancro é a doença que mais recursos consome enquanto que do ponto de vista físico e psicológico é uma doença que não limita o seu raio de ação ao doente. O cancro é, portanto, uma doença sempre atual e cada vez mais presente, pois reflete os hábitos e o ambiente de uma sociedade, não obstante as características intrínsecas a cada indivíduo. A adoção de metodologia estatística aplicada à modelação de dados oncológicos é, sobretudo, valiosa e pertinente quando a informação é oriunda de Registos de Cancro de Base Populacional (RCBP). A pertinência é justificada pelo fato destes registos permitirem aferir numa população específica, o risco desta sofrer e/ou vir a sofrer de uma dada neoplasia. O peso que as neoplasias do estômago, cólon e recto assumem foi um dos elementos que motivou o presente estudo que tem por objetivo analisar tendências, projeções, sobrevivências relativas e a distribuição espacial destas neoplasias. Foram considerados neste estudo todos os casos diagnosticados no período 1998-2006, pelo RCBP da região sul de Portugal (ROR-Sul). O estudo descritivo inicial das taxas de incidência e da tendência em cada uma das referidas neoplasias teve como base uma única variável temporal - o ano de diagnóstico - também designada por período. Todavia, uma metodologia que contemple apenas uma única variável temporal é limitativa. No cancro, para além do período, a idade à data do diagnóstico e a coorte de nascimento, são variáveis temporais que poderão prestar um contributo adicional na caracterização das taxas de incidência. A relevância assumida por estas variáveis temporais justificou a sua inclusão numaclasse de modelos designada por modelos Idade-Período-Coorte (Age-Period-Cohort models - APC), utilizada na modelação das taxas de incidência para as neoplasias em estudo. Os referidos modelos permitem ultrapassar o problema de relações não lineares e/ou de mudanças súbitas na tendência linear das taxas. Nos modelos APC foram consideradas a abordagem clássica e a abordagem com recurso a funções suavizadoras. A modelação das taxas foi estratificada por sexo. Foram ainda estudados os respectivos submodelos (apenas com uma ou duas variáveis temporais). Conhecido o comportamento das taxas de incidência, uma questão subsequente prende-se com a sua projeção em períodos futuros. Porém, o efeito de mudanças estruturais na população, ao qual Portugal não é alheio, altera substancialmente o número esperado de casos futuros com cancro. Estimativas da incidência de cancro a nível mundial obtidas a partir de projeções demográficas apontam para um aumento de 25% dos casos de cancro nas próximas duas décadas. Embora a projeção da incidência esteja associada a alguma incerteza, as projeções auxiliam no planeamento de políticas de saúde para a afetação de recursos e permitem a avaliação de cenários e de intervenções que tenham como objetivo a redução do impacto do cancro. O desconhecimento de projeções da taxa de incidência destas neoplasias na área abrangida pelo ROR-Sul, levou à utilização de modelos de projeção que diferem entre si quanto à sua estrutura, linearidade (ou não) dos seus coeficientes e comportamento das taxas na série histórica de dados (e.g. crescente, decrescente ou estável). Os referidos modelos pautaram-se por duas abordagens: (i)modelos lineares no que concerne ao tempo e (ii) extrapolação de efeitos temporais identificados pelos modelos APC para períodos futuros. Foi feita a projeção das taxas de incidência para os anos de 2007 a 2010 tendo em conta o género, idade e neoplasia. É ainda apresentada uma estimativa do impacto económico destas neoplasias no período de projeção. Uma questão pertinente e habitual no contexto clínico e a que o presente estudo pretende dar resposta, reside em saber qual a contribuição da neoplasia em si para a sobrevivência do doente. Nesse sentido, a mortalidade por causa específica é habitualmente utilizada para estimar a mortalidade atribuível apenas ao cancro em estudo. Porém, existem muitas situações em que a causa de morte é desconhecida e, mesmo que esta informação esteja disponível através dos certificados de óbito, não é fácil distinguir os casos em que a principal causa de morte é devida ao cancro. A sobrevivência relativa surge como uma medida objetiva que não necessita do conhecimento da causa específica da morte para o seu cálculo e dar-nos-á uma estimativa da probabilidade de sobrevivência caso o cancro em análise, num cenário hipotético, seja a única causa de morte. Desconhecida a principal causa de morte nos casos diagnosticados com cancro no registo ROR-Sul, foi determinada a sobrevivência relativa para cada uma das neoplasias em estudo, para um período de follow-up de 5 anos, tendo em conta o sexo, a idade e cada uma das regiões que constituem o registo. Foi adotada uma análise por período e as abordagens convencional e por modelos. No epílogo deste estudo, é analisada a influência da variabilidade espaço-temporal nas taxas de incidência. O longo período de latência das doenças oncológicas, a dificuldade em identificar mudanças súbitas no comportamento das taxas, populações com dimensão e riscos reduzidos, são alguns dos elementos que dificultam a análise da variação temporal das taxas. Nalguns casos, estas variações podem ser reflexo de flutuações aleatórias. O efeito da componente temporal aferida pelos modelos APC dá-nos um retrato incompleto da incidência do cancro. A etiologia desta doença, quando conhecida, está associada com alguma frequência a fatores de risco tais como condições socioeconómicas, hábitos alimentares e estilo de vida, atividade profissional, localização geográfica e componente genética. O “contributo”, dos fatores de risco é, por vezes, determinante e não deve ser ignorado. Surge, assim, a necessidade em complementar o estudo temporal das taxas com uma abordagem de cariz espacial. Assim, procurar-se-á aferir se as variações nas taxas de incidência observadas entre os concelhos inseridos na área do registo ROR-Sul poderiam ser explicadas quer pela variabilidade temporal e geográfica quer por fatores socioeconómicos ou, ainda, pelos desiguais estilos de vida. Foram utilizados os Modelos Bayesianos Hierárquicos Espaço-Temporais com o objetivo de identificar tendências espaço-temporais nas taxas de incidência bem como quantificar alguns fatores de risco ajustados à influência simultânea da região e do tempo. Os resultados obtidos pela implementação de todas estas metodologias considera-se ser uma mais valia para o conhecimento destas neoplasias em Portugal.------------ABSTRACT: mortality rates, with the elderly being an increasingly representative sector of the population, mainly due to greater longevity. The incidence of cancer, in general, is greater precisely in that age group. Alongside with other equally damaging diseases (e.g. cardiovascular,degenerative), whose incidence rates increases with age, cancer is of special note. In epidemiological studies, cancer is the global leader in mortality. In developed countries its weight represents 25% of the total number of deaths, with this percentage being doubled in other countries. Obesity, a reduce consumption of fruit and vegetables, physical inactivity, smoking and alcohol consumption, are the five risk factors present in 30% of deaths due to cancer. Globally, and in particular in the South of Portugal, the stomach, rectum and colon cancer have high incidence and mortality rates. From a strictly economic perspective, cancer is the disease that consumes more resources, while from a physical and psychological point of view, it is a disease that is not limited to the patient. Cancer is therefore na up to date disease and one of increased importance, since it reflects the habits and the environment of a society, regardless the intrinsic characteristics of each individual. The adoption of statistical methodology applied to cancer data modelling is especially valuable and relevant when the information comes from population-based cancer registries (PBCR). In such cases, these registries allow for the assessment of the risk and the suffering associated to a given neoplasm in a specific population. The weight that stomach, colon and rectum cancers assume in Portugal was one of the motivations of the present study, that focus on analyzing trends, projections, relative survival and spatial distribution of these neoplasms. The data considered in this study, are all cases diagnosed between 1998 and 2006, by the PBCR of Portugal, ROR-Sul.Only year of diagnosis, also called period, was the only time variable considered in the initial descriptive analysis of the incidence rates and trends for each of the three neoplasms considered. However, a methodology that only considers one single time variable will probably fall short on the conclusions that could be drawn from the data under study. In cancer, apart from the variable period, the age at diagnosis and the birth cohort are also temporal variables and may provide an additional contribution to the characterization of the incidence. The relevance assumed by these temporal variables justified its inclusion in a class of models called Age-Period-Cohort models (APC). This class of models was used for the analysis of the incidence rates of the three cancers under study. APC models allow to model nonlinearity and/or sudden changes in linear relationships of rate trends. Two approaches of APC models were considered: the classical and the one using smoothing functions. The models were stratified by gender and, when justified, further studies explored other sub-models where only one or two temporal variables were considered. After the analysis of the incidence rates, a subsequent goal is related to their projections in future periods. Although the effect of structural changes in the population, of which Portugal is not oblivious, may substantially change the expected number of future cancer cases, the results of these projections could help planning health policies with the proper allocation of resources, allowing for the evaluation of scenarios and interventions that aim to reduce the impact of cancer in a population. Worth noting that cancer incidence worldwide obtained from demographic projections point out to an increase of 25% of cancer cases in the next two decades. The lack of projections of incidence rates of the three cancers under study in the area covered by ROR-Sul, led us to use a variety of forecasting models that differ in the nature and structure. For example, linearity or nonlinearity in their coefficients and the trend of the incidence rates in historical data series (e.g. increasing, decreasing or stable).The models followed two approaches: (i) linear models regarding time and (ii) extrapolation of temporal effects identified by the APC models for future periods. The study provide incidence rates projections and the numbers of newly diagnosed cases for the year, 2007 to 2010, taking into account gender, age and the type of cancer. In addition, an estimate of the economic impact of these neoplasms is presented for the projection period considered. This research also try to address a relevant and common clinical question in these type of studies, regarding the contribution of the type of cancer to the patient survival. In such studies, the primary cause of death is commonly used to estimate the mortality specifically due to the cancer. However, there are many situations in which the cause of death is unknown, or, even if this information is available through the death certificates, it is not easy to distinguish the cases where the primary cause of death is the cancer. With this in mind, the relative survival is an alternative measure that does not need the knowledge of the specific cause of death to be calculated. This estimate will represent the survival probability in the hypothetical scenario of a certain cancer be the only cause of death. For the patients with unknown cause of death that were diagnosed with cancer in the ROR-Sul, the relative survival was calculated for each of the cancers under study, for a follow-up period of 5 years, considering gender, age and each one of the regions that are part the registry. A period analysis was undertaken, considering both the conventional and the model approaches. In final part of this study, we analyzed the influence of space-time variability in the incidence rates. The long latency period of oncologic diseases, the difficulty in identifying subtle changes in the rates behavior, populations of reduced size and low risk are some of the elements that can be a challenge in the analysis of temporal variations in rates, that, in some cases, can reflect simple random fluctuations. The effect of the temporal component measured by the APC models gives an incomplete picture of the cancer incidence. The etiology of this disease, when known, is frequently associated to risk factors such as socioeconomic conditions, eating habits and lifestyle, occupation, geographic location and genetic component. The "contribution"of such risk factors is sometimes decisive in the evolution of the disease and should not be ignored. Therefore, there was the need to consider an additional approach in this study, one of spatial nature, addressing the fact that changes in incidence rates observed in the ROR-Sul area, could be explained either by temporal and geographical variability or by unequal socio-economic or lifestyle factors. Thus, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models were used with the purpose of identifying space-time trends in incidence rates together with the the analysis of the effect of the risk factors considered in the study. The results obtained and the implementation of all these methodologies are considered to be an added value to the knowledge of these neoplasms in Portugal.

Time-variations of equivalent water heights'from Grace Mission and in-situ river stages in the Amazon basin

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission is dedicated to measuring temporal variations of the Earth's gravity field. In this study, the Stokes coefficients made available by Groupe de Recherche en Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS) at a 10-day interval were converted into equivalent water height (EWH) for a ~4-year period in the Amazon basin (from July-2002 to May-2006). The seasonal amplitudes of EWH signal are the largest on the surface of Earth and reach ~ 1250mm at that basin's center. Error budget represents ~130 mm of EWH, including formal errors on Stokes coefficient, leakage errors (12 ~ 21 mm) and spectrum truncation (10 ~ 15 mm). Comparison between in situ river level time series measured at 233 ground-based hydrometric stations (HS) in the Amazon basin and vertically-integrated EWH derived from GRACE is carried out in this paper. Although EWH and HS measure different water bodies, in most of the cases a high correlation (up to ~80%) is detected between the HS series and EWH series at the same site. This correlation allows adjusting linear relationships between in situ and GRACE-based series for the major tributaries of the Amazon river. The regression coefficients decrease from up to down stream along the rivers reaching the theoretical value 1 at the Amazon's mouth in the Atlantic Ocean. The variation of the regression coefficients versus the distance from estuary is analysed for the largest rivers in the basin. In a second step, a classification of the proportionality between in situ and GRACE time-series is proposed.