US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968-2010

Recent literature has suggested that macroeconomic forecasters may have asymmetric loss functions, and that there may be heterogeneity across forecasters in the degree to which they weigh under- and over-predictions. Using an individual-level analysis that exploits the Survey of Professional Forecasters respondents’ histogram forecasts, we find little evidence of asymmetric loss for the inflation forecasters

Fonctions de perte en actuariat

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Intensity correlation functions of dye lasers: Comparison of colored-gain-noise and colored-loss-noise models

The intensity correlation functions C(t) for the colored-gain-noise model of dye lasers are analyzed and compared with those for the loss-noise model. For correlation times ¿ larger than the deterministic relaxation time td, we show with the use of the adiabatic approximation that C(t) values coincide for both models. For small correlation times we use a method that provides explicit expressions of non-Markovian correlation functions, approximating simultaneously short- and long-time behaviors. Comparison with numerical simulations shows excellent results simultaneously for short- and long-time regimes. It is found that, when the correlation time of the noise increases, differences between the gain- and loss-noise models tend to disappear. The decay of C(t) for both models can be described by a time scale that approaches the deterministic relaxation time. However, in contrast with the loss-noise model, a secondary time scale remains for large times for the gain-noise model, which could allow one to distinguish between both models.

Evaluating and classifying contaminated areas based on loss functions using annealing simulations

This paper presents a methodology based on geostatistical theory for quantifying the risks associated with heavy-metal contamination in the harbor area of Santana, Amapa State, Northern Brazil. In this area there were activities related to the commercialization of manganese ore from Serra do Navio. Manganese and arsenic concentrations at unsampled sites were estimated by postprocessing results from stochastic annealing simulations; the simulations were used to test different criteria for optimization, including average, median, and quantiles. For classifying areas as contaminated or uncontaminated, estimated quantiles based on functions of asymmetric loss showed better results than did estimates based on symmetric loss, such as the average or the median. The use of specific loss functions in the decision-making process can reduce the costs of remediation and health maintenance. The highest global health costs were observed for manganese. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

The human papillomavirus E7 protein is able to inhibit the antiviral and anti-growth functions of interferon-alpha

It is now well recognized that cervical cancer is caused by infection with certain human papillomavirus (HPV) subtypes and while interferon-alpha (IFN-alpha) is used to treat HPV-infected lesions, HPV appears to have developed a means to avoid the effects of IFN-alpha. Clinically, resistance appears to be associated with the expression of the E7 oncoprotein. Here we investigated the effects of expression in cells of the E7 protein from high- and low-risk papillomavirus subtypes on a range of responses to IFN-alpha. 2fTGH, a cell line dependent on IFN-alpha for growth in selection medium, grew significantly less well in the presence of E7, and the antiproliferative effects of IFN-alpha upon epithelial cells was lost upon E7 expression. The antiviral effects of IFN-alpha were abrogated in E7-expressing cells. Loss of response to IFN-alpha was found to occur in both high- and low-risk papillomaviruses. Finally, deletion of amino acids 21-24 of HPV type 16 E7 protein partially reversed repression. We conclude that E7 inhibits the functional effects of IFN-alpha and that this property is shared by all HPV subtypes tested. (C) 2000 Academic Press.

Transformation kernel density estimation of actuarial loss functions

[cat] Es presenta un estimador nucli transformat que és adequat per a distribucions de cua pesada. Utilitzant una transformació basada en la distribució de probabilitat Beta l’elecció del paràmetre de finestra és molt directa. Es presenta una aplicació a dades d’assegurances i es mostra com calcular el Valor en Risc.

Transformation kernel density estimation of actuarial loss functions

[cat] Es presenta un estimador nucli transformat que és adequat per a distribucions de cua pesada. Utilitzant una transformació basada en la distribució de probabilitat Beta l’elecció del paràmetre de finestra és molt directa. Es presenta una aplicació a dades d’assegurances i es mostra com calcular el Valor en Risc.

Designer aminoglycosides prevent cochlear hair cell loss and hearing loss.

Bacterial infections represent a rapidly growing challenge to human health. Aminoglycosides are widely used broad-spectrum antibiotics, but they inflict permanent hearing loss in up to ~50% of patients by causing selective sensory hair cell loss. Here, we hypothesized that reducing aminoglycoside entry into hair cells via mechanotransducer channels would reduce ototoxicity, and therefore we synthesized 9 aminoglycosides with modifications based on biophysical properties of the hair cell mechanotransducer channel and interactions between aminoglycosides and the bacterial ribosome. Compared with the parent aminoglycoside sisomicin, all 9 derivatives displayed no or reduced ototoxicity, with the lead compound N1MS 17 times less ototoxic and with reduced penetration of hair cell mechanotransducer channels in rat cochlear cultures. Both N1MS and sisomicin suppressed growth of E. coli and K. pneumoniae, with N1MS exhibiting superior activity against extended spectrum β lactamase producers, despite diminished activity against P. aeruginosa and S. aureus. Moreover, systemic sisomicin treatment of mice resulted in 75% to 85% hair cell loss and profound hearing loss, whereas N1MS treatment preserved both hair cells and hearing. Finally, in mice with E. coli-infected bladders, systemic N1MS treatment eliminated bacteria from urinary tract tissues and serially collected urine samples, without compromising auditory and kidney functions. Together, our findings establish N1MS as a nonototoxic aminoglycoside and support targeted modification as a promising approach to generating nonototoxic antibiotics.

Asymptotically Optimum Estimation of a Probability in Inverse Binomial Sampling under General Loss Functions

The optimum quality that can be asymptotically achieved in the estimation of a probability p using inverse binomial sampling is addressed. A general definition of quality is used in terms of the risk associated with a loss function that satisfies certain assumptions. It is shown that the limit superior of the risk for p asymptotically small has a minimum over all (possibly randomized) estimators. This minimum is achieved by certain non-randomized estimators. The model includes commonly used quality criteria as particular cases. Applications to the non-asymptotic regime are discussed considering specific loss functions, for which minimax estimators are derived.

Relation between implant/abutment vertical misfit and torque loss of abutment screws

This study investigated whether there is a direct correlation between the level of vertical misfit at the abutment/implant interface and torque losses (detorque) in abutment screws. A work model was obtained from a metal matrix with five 3.75 x 9 mm external hex implants with standard platform (4.1 mm). Four frameworks were waxed using UCLA type abutments and one-piece cast in commercially pure titanium. The misfit was analyzed with a comparator microscope after 20 Ncm torque. The highest value of misfit observed per abutment was used. The torque required to loose the screw was evaluated using a digital torque meter. The torque loss values, measured by the torque meter, were assumed as percentage of initial torque (100%) given to abutment screws. Pearson's correlation (α=0.05) between the misfit values (29.08 ± 8.78 µm) and the percentage of detorque (50.71 ± 11.37%) showed no statistically significant correlation (p=0.295). Within the limitations of this study, it may be concluded that great vertical misfits dot not necessarily implies in higher detorque values.

Charm and longitudinal structure functions within the Kharzeev-Levin-Nardi model

We use the Kharzeev-Levin-Nardi (KLN) model of the low x gluon distributions to fit recent HERA data on F(L) and F(2)(c)(F(2)(b)). Having checked that this model gives a good description of the data, we use it to predict F(L) and F(2)(c) to be measured in a future electron-ion collider. The results are similar to those obtained with the de Florian-Sassot and Eskola-Paukkunen-Salgado nuclear gluon distributions. The conclusion of this exercise is that the KLN model, simple as it is, may still be used as an auxiliary tool to make estimates for both heavy-ion and electron-ion collisions.

Experimental and theoretical study of two-photon absorption in nitrofuran derivatives: Promising compounds for photochemotherapy

We report experimental and theoretical studies of the two-photon absorption spectrum of two nitrofuran derivatives: nitrofurantoine, (1-(5-nitro-2-furfurilideneamine)-hidantoine) and quinifuryl, 2-(5`-nitro-2`-furanyl) ethenyl-4-{N-[4`-(N,N-diethylamino)-1`-methylbutyl]carbamoyl} quinoline. Both molecules are representative of a family of 5-nitrofuran-ethenyl-quinoline drugs that have been demonstrated to display high toxicity to various species of transformed cells in the dark. We determine the two-photon absorption cross-section for both compounds, from 560 to 880 nm, which present peak values of 64 GM for quinifuryl and 20 GM for nitrofurantoine (1 GM = 1 x 10(-50) cm(4).s.photon(-1)). Besides, theoretical calculations employing the linear and quadratic response functions were carried out at the density functional theory level to aid the interpretations of the experimental results. The theoretical results yielded oscillator strengths, two-photon transition probabilities, and transition energies, which are in good agreement with the experimental data. A higher number of allowed electronic transitions was identified for quinifuryl in comparison to nitrofurantoine by the theoretical calculations. Due to the planar structure of both compounds, the differences in the two-photon absorption cross-section values are a consequence of their distinct conjugation lengths. (c) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3514911]

Crop rotation in center-pivot for phytonematode control: density variation, pathogenicity and crop loss estimation

Crop rotation in center-pivot for phytonematode control: density variation, pathogenicity and crop loss estimation A field study conducted over three consecutive years, on a farm using crop rotation system under center-pivot and infested with the nematodes Pratylenchus brachyurus, P. zeae, Meloidogyne incognita, Paratrichodorus minor, Helicotylenchus dihystera, Mesocriconema ornata and M. onoense, demonstrated that intensive crop systems provide conditions for the maintenance of high densities of polyphagous phytonematodes. Of the crops established on the farm (cotton, maize, soybean and cowpea), cotton and soybean suffered the most severe crop losses, caused respectively by M. incognita and P. brachyurus. Since maize is a good host for both nematodes, but tolerant of M. incognita, its exclusion from cropping system would be favorable to the performance of cotton, soybean and cowpea. Results from experiments carried out in controlled conditions confirmed the pathogenicity of P. brachyurus on cotton. Additional management with genetic resistance was useful in fields infested with M. incognita, although the soybean performance was affected by low resistance of the cultivars used for P. brachyurus. In conclusion, crop rotation must be carefully planned in areas infested with polyphagous nematodes, specifically in the case of occurrence of two or more major pathogenic nematodes.

The dimerization and topological specificity functions of MinE reside in a structurally autonomous C-terminal domain

Correct placement of the division septum in Escherichia coli requires the co-ordinated action of three proteins, MinC, MinD and MinE. MinC and MinD interact to form a non-specific division inhibitor that blocks septation at all potential division sites. MinE is able to antagonize MinCD in a topologically sensitive manner, as it restricts MinCD activity to the unwanted division sites at the cell poles, Here, we show that the topological specificity function of MinE residues in a structurally autonomous, trypsin-resistant domain comprising residues 31-88, Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and circular dichroic spectroscopy indicate that this domain includes both alpha and beta secondary structure, while analytical ultracentrifugation reveals that it also contains a region responsible for MinE homodimerization. While trypsin digestion indicates that the anti-MinCD domain of MinE (residues 1-22) does not form a tightly folded structural domain, NMR analysis of a peptide corresponding to MinE(1-22) indicates that this region forms a nascent helix in which the peptide rapidly interconverts between disordered (random coil) and alpha-helical conformations, This suggests that the N-terminal region of MinE may be poised to adopt an alpha-helical conformation when it interacts with the target of its anti-MinCD activity, presumably MinD.

Clinical measures of obesity and weight loss in men

OBJECTIVES: (?) To determine the relationship between waist circumference and body weight in overweight men both before and after participation in a weight loss program; and (2) to make recommendations for the appropriate use of these measures at various stages of weight toss. DESIGN: Weight and waist circumference measures were taken in two diverse groups of men both before and 1-2y after commencing a men's 'waist loss' program. Regression analyses were used to assess the relationship between weight and waist measures. SUBJECTS: One group of 42 retired Caucasian men from New South Wales, and one group of 45 indigenous men from the Torres Strait region of Northern Australia. RESULTS: There were differences in the relationships of weight and waist circumference before the program and change in weight and change in waist circumference after weight loss. These differences were similar in both groups of men (indigenous men and retired Caucasian men), with a 1 cm waist loss being on average equivalent to about 3/4 kg, but with wide variability, suggesting inter-individual variation in fat losses from different depots. This variation suggests that neither weight nor waist alone is a sufficient measure of fat loss for men. CONCLUSIONS: Weight and waist circumference should both be used at various stages in the clinical situation to assess change in body fat in men involved in obesity reduction.