Developing a rural land investment performance index for New Zealand

Agricultural production is one of the major industries in New Zealand and accounts for over 60% of all export trade. The farming industry comprises 70,000 entities ranging in size from small individual run farms to large corporate operations. The reliance of the New Zealand economy to the international rural sector has seen considerable volatility in the rural land markets over the past four decades, with significant shifts in rural land prices based on location, land use and underlying international rural commodity prices. With the increasing attention being paid to the rural sector, especially in relation to food production and bio-fuels, there has been an increasing corporate interest in rural land ownership in relatively low subsidised agricultural producing countries such as New Zealand and Australia. A factor that has limited this participation of institutional investors previously has been a lack of reliable and up-to-date investment performance data for this asset class. This paper is the initial starting phase in the development of a New Zealand South Island rural land investment performance index and covers the period 1990-2007. The research in this paper analyses all rural sales transactions in the South Island and develops a capital return index for rural property based on major rural property land use. Additional work on this index will cover both total return performance and geographic location.

Shortening the decision distance: Selecting decision aids for improved technology investment performance

Deciding which technology to invest in is a recurring issue for technology managers, and the ability to successfully identify the right technology can be a make or break decision for a company. The effects of globalisation have made this issue even more imperative. Not only do companies have to be competitive by global standards but increasingly they have to source technological capabilities from overseas as well. Technology managers already have a variety of decision aids to draw upon, including valuation tools, for example DCF and real options; decision trees; and technology roadmapping. However little theory exists on when, where, why or even how to best apply particular decision aids. Rather than developing further techniques, this paper reviews the relevance and limitations of existing techniques. This is drawn from an on going research project which seeks to support technology managers in selecting and applying existing decision aids and potentially in the design of future decision aids. It is intended that through improving the selection of decision aids, decision performance can be increased, leading to more effective allocation of resources and hence competitive advantage. (c) 2006 PICMET.

Holding periods and investment performance: analysing UK office returns 1983-2003

Drawing on a unique database of office properties constructed for Gerald Eve by IPD, this paper examines the holding periods of individual office properties sold between 1983 and 2003. It quantifies the holding periods of sold properties and examines the relationship between the holding period and investment performance. Across the range of holding periods, excess returns (performance relative to the market) are evenly distributed. There are as many winners as there are losers. The distribution of excess returns over different holding periods is widely spread with the risk of under-performance greater over short holding periods. Over the longer term, excess performance is confined to a narrow range and individual returns are more likely to perform in line with the market as a whole.

Is ESG commitment linked to investment performance in the real estate sector?

The linkage between corporate commitment to environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues and investment performance has generated a substantial body of research outside the real estate sector. Nevertheless, the relationship between the environmental performance and financial performance of companies is still not well understood as studies have found mixed and contradicting results. Drawing upon the KLD database which contains ratings on seven ESG dimensions from 2003-2009, this paper investigates the relationship between the ESG rating and the financial performance of a sample of US real estate firms. Since the primary transmission channel from ESG activities to financial performance may be better reflected by a firm's intangible assets, we model both Tobin's q and the total annual return in a panel framework with time and sector specific fixed effects. Our results are largely consistent with the existing literature finding a positive relationship between CFP and CSP. Further, the time scale of the lagged effects seems plausible.

Fixing the currency: analysing the implications for property investment performance

This paper analyses the historic effects of exchange rate movements on returns, risk and diversification of office markets within the Euro zone in order to gain insights into the investment consequences of conversion to a fixed rate currency regime. The data used in the study represents annual office rental growth rates for 22 European cities from nine European Union countries between 1985 and 1996. Relative performance is reported in terms of domestic currency and in terms of deutsche marks. The evidence presented suggests that Euro zone property investors in ‘southern’ countries are now protected from short term jump risk associated with flexible peg currency arrangements and medium/long-term currency volatility. Historically exchange rate movements have produced decreases in returns and increases in volatility. For northern ‘bloc’ cities, the effects of fixing the exchange rate are minimal. For these cities, national exchange rate fluctuations against the deutsche mark have been minor and the resultant implications for property risk and return to non-domestic SCA investors have been negligible. Moreover, although previous research would suggest that the effect of currency volatility is to decrease market correlation, this cannot be observed within the Euro zone.

Measuring European real estate investment performance: A comparison of different approaches

The performance of real estate investment markets is difficult to monitor because the constituent assets are heterogeneous, are traded infrequently and do not trade through a central exchange in which prices can be observed. To address this, appraisal based indices have been developed that use the records of owners for whom buildings are regularly re-valued. These indices provide a practical solution to the measurement problem, but have been criticised for understating volatility and not capturing market turning points in a timely manner. This paper evaluates alternative ‘Transaction Linked Indices’ that are estimated using an extension of the hedonic method for index construction and with Investment Property Databank data. The two types of indices are compared over Q4 2001 to Q4 2012 in order to examine whether movements in these indices are consistent. The Transaction Linked Indices show stronger growth and sharper declines than their appraisal based counterparts over the course of the cycle in different European markets and they are typically two to four times more volatile. However, they have some limitations; for instance, only country level indicators can be published in many cases owing to low trading volumes in the period studied.

Measuring European property investment performance: comparing different approaches

Purpose – Price indices for commercial real estate markets are difficult to construct because assets are heterogeneous, they are spatially dispersed and they are infrequently traded. Appraisal-based indices are one response to these problems, but may understate volatility or fail to capture turning points in a timely manner. This paper estimates “transaction linked indices” for major European markets to see whether these offer a different perspective on market performance. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The assessed value method is used to construct the indices. This has been recently applied to commercial real estate datasets in the USA and UK. The underlying data comprise appraisals and sale prices for assets monitored by Investment Property Databank (IPD). The indices are compared to appraisal-based series for the countries concerned for Q4 2001 to Q4 2012. Findings – Transaction linked indices show stronger growth and sharper declines over the course of the cycle, but they do not notably lead their appraisal-based counterparts. They are typically two to four times more volatile. Research limitations/implications – Only country-level indicators can be constructed in many cases owing to low trading volumes in the period studied, and this same issue prevented sample selection bias from being analysed in depth. Originality/value – Discussion of the utility of transaction-based price indicators is extended to European commercial real estate markets. The indicators offer alternative estimates of real estate market volatility that may be useful in asset allocation and risk modelling, including in a regulatory context.

Investment performance within urban regeneration locations

Purpose – Property performance indices have invariably focused upon prime markets with a variety of approaches used to measure investment returns. However, there is relatively little knowledge regarding the investment performance of property in regeneration areas. Indeed, there is a perception that such locations carry increased risk and that the returns achieved may not be sufficient to offset the added risk. The main objective of this paper, therefore, is to construct regeneration property performance indicators consistent with the CBRE rent index and average yield monitor.

Design/methodology/approach – Local market experts were asked to estimate rents and yields for hypothetical standardised offerings for a range of regeneration locations throughout the UK, covering the period 1995 to 2002.

Findings – The results show that rental growth was similar in regeneration locations compared to the prime market. However, the analysis highlights a major yield shift for property in regeneration areas in the short to medium term. The downward pressure in yields would suggest that once a regeneration area becomes established and rental growth emerges, investor interest is stimulated resulting in increased competition and a shortening of yields.

Originality/value – The significance of this research is the quantification of property investment performance from regeneration areas that previously has not been available to investment institutions and decision makers. From a policy perspective this analysis is of relevance in confirming the maturing of locations that have received high levels of public sector support and indicating the effectiveness of regeneration policy mechanisms in creating sustainable urban environments capable of meeting private sector investment goals.

State pension assets investment performance.

"October 1986."

State and local pension fund investment performance /

"Prepared for the Urban Institute as part of the project, 'Economic Issues of State and Local Pension Plans,' U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, grant no. H-2921-RG."

Manipulation in U.S. REIT Investment Performance Evaluation: Empirical Evidence

We investigate whether Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) managers actively manipulate performance measures in spite of the strict regulation under the REIT regime. We provide empirical evidence that is consistent with this hypothesis. Specifically, manipulation strategies may rely on the opportunistic use of leverage. However, manipulation does not appear to be uniform across REIT sectors and seems to become more common as the level of competition in the underlying property sector increases. We employ a set of commonly used traditional performance measures and a recently developed manipulation-proof measure (MPPM, Goetzmann, Ingersoll, Spiegel, and Welch (2007)) to evaluate the performance of 147 REITs from seven different property sectors over the period 1991-2009. Our findings suggest that the existing REIT regulation may fail to mitigate a substantial agency conflict and that investors can benefit from evaluating return information carefully in order to avoid potentially manipulative funds.

The true cost and performance of individual residential property investment and the implication on real estate agency practice

Investment in residential property in Australia is not dominated by the major investment institutions in to the same degree as the commercial, industrial and retail property markets. As at December 2001, the Property Council of Australia Investment Performance Index contained residential property with a total value of $235 million, which represents only 0.3% of the total PCA Performance Index value. The majority of investment in the Australian residential property market is by small investment companies and individual investors. The limited exposure of residential property in the institutional investment portfolios has also limited the research that has been undertaken in relation to residential property performance. However the importance of individual investment in residential property is continuing to gain importance as both individuals are now taking control of their own superannuation portfolios and the various State Governments of Australia are decreasing their involvement in the construction of public housing by subsidizing low-income families into the private residential property market. This paper will: • Provide a comparison of the cost to initially purchase residential property in the various capital city residential property markets in Australia, and • Analyse the true cost and investment performance of residential property in the main residential property markets in Australia based on a standard investment portfolio in each of the State capital cities and relate these results to real estate marketing and agency practice.