Student modeling based on fuzzy inference mechanisms

The paper presents a competence-based instructional design system and a way to provide a personalization of navigation in the course content. The navigation aid tool builds on the competence graph and the student model, which includes the elements of uncertainty in the assessment of students. An individualized navigation graph is constructed for each student, suggesting the competences the student is more prepared to study. We use fuzzy set theory for dealing with uncertainty. The marks of the assessment tests are transformed into linguistic terms and used for assigning values to linguistic variables. For each competence, the level of difficulty and the level of knowing its prerequisites are calculated based on the assessment marks. Using these linguistic variables and approximate reasoning (fuzzy IF-THEN rules), a crisp category is assigned to each competence regarding its level of recommendation.

Context-based interaction design for smart homes

This paper presents the notion of Context-based Activity Design (CoBAD) that represents context with its dynamic changes and normative activities in an interactive system design. The development of CoBAD requires an appropriate context ontology model and inference mechanisms. The incorporation of norms and information field theory into Context State Transition Model, and the implementation of new conflict resolution strategies based on the specific situation are discussed. A demonstration of CoBAD using a human agent scenario in a smart home is also presented. Finally, a method of treating conflicting norms in multiple information fields is proposed.

Belief revision for adaptive negotiation agents

Existing negotiation agents are primitive in terms of what they can learn and how responsive they are towards the changing negotiation contexts. These weaknesses can be alleviated if an expressive representation language is used to represent negotiation contexts and a sound inference mechanism is applied to reason about the preferential changes arising in these negotiation contexts. This paper illustrates a novel adaptive negotiation agent model, which is underpinned by the well-known AGM belief revision logic. Our preliminary experiments show that the performance of the belief-based adaptive negotiation agents is promising.

Semantic Modelling for Product Line Engineering

The aim of our work is to present solutions and a methodical support for automated techniques and procedures in domain engineering, in particular for variability modeling. Our approach is based upon Semantic Modeling concepts, for which semantic description, representation patterns and inference mechanisms are defined. Thus, model-driven techniques enriched with semantics will allow flexibility and variability in representation means, reasoning power and the required analysis depth for the identification, interpretation and adaptation of artifact properties and qualities.

Evolution of asexuality via different mechanisms in grass thrips (thysanoptera: Aptinothrips).

Asexual lineages can derive from sexual ancestors via different mechanisms and at variable rates, which affects the diversity of the asexual population and thereby its ecological success. We investigated the variation and evolution of reproductive systems in Aptinothrips, a genus of grass thrips comprising four species. Extensive population surveys and breeding experiments indicated sexual reproduction in A. elegans, asexuality in A. stylifer and A. karnyi, and both sexual and asexual lineages in A. rufus. Asexuality in A. stylifer and A. rufus coincides with a worldwide distribution, with sexual A. rufus lineages confined to a limited area. Inference of molecular phylogenies and antibiotic treatment revealed different causes of asexuality in different species. Asexuality in A. stylifer and A. karnyi has most likely genetic causes, while it is induced by endosymbionts in A. rufus. Endosymbiont-community characterization revealed presence of Wolbachia, and lack of other bacteria known to manipulate host reproduction. However, only 69% asexual A. rufus females are Wolbachia-infected, indicating that either an undescribed endosymbiont causes asexuality in this species or that Wolbachia was lost in several lineages that remained asexual. These results open new perspectives for studies on the maintenance of mixed sexual and asexual reproduction in natural populations.

Bayesian Inference in Exponential and Pareto populations in the presence of Outliers

This thesis Entitled Bayesian inference in Exponential and pareto populations in the presence of outliers. The main theme of the present thesis is focussed on various estimation problems using the Bayesian appraoch, falling under the general category of accommodation procedures for analysing Pareto data containing outlier. In Chapter II. the problem of estimation of parameters in the classical Pareto distribution specified by the density function. In Chapter IV. we discuss the estimation of (1.19) when the sample contain a known number of outliers under three different data generating mechanisms, viz. the exchangeable model. Chapter V the prediction of a future observation based on a random sample that contains one contaminant. Chapter VI is devoted to the study of estimation problems concerning the exponential parameters under a k-outlier model.

Missing data mechanisms and their implications on the analysis of categorical data

We review some issues related to the implications of different missing data mechanisms on statistical inference for contingency tables and consider simulation studies to compare the results obtained under such models to those where the units with missing data are disregarded. We confirm that although, in general, analyses under the correct missing at random and missing completely at random models are more efficient even for small sample sizes, there are exceptions where they may not improve the results obtained by ignoring the partially classified data. We show that under the missing not at random (MNAR) model, estimates on the boundary of the parameter space as well as lack of identifiability of the parameters of saturated models may be associated with undesirable asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators and likelihood ratio tests; even in standard cases the bias of the estimators may be low only for very large samples. We also show that the probability of a boundary solution obtained under the correct MNAR model may be large even for large samples and that, consequently, we may not always conclude that a MNAR model is misspecified because the estimate is on the boundary of the parameter space.

Genome-wide association study of reproductive traits in Nellore heifers using Bayesian inference

An important goal of Zebu breeding programs is to improve reproductive performance. A major problem faced with the genetic improvement of reproductive traits is that recording the time for an animal to reach sexual maturity is costly. Another issue is that accurate estimates of breeding values are obtained only a long time after the young bulls have gone through selection. An alternative to overcome these problems is to use traits that are indicators of the reproductive efficiency of the herd and are easier to measure, such as age at first calving. Another problem is that heifers that have conceived once may fail to conceive in the next breeding season, which increases production costs. Thus, increasing heifer's rebreeding rates should improve the economic efficiency of the herd. Response to selection for these traits tends to be slow, since they have a low heritability and phenotypic information is provided only later in the life of the animal. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are useful to investigate the genetic mechanisms that underlie these traits by identifying the genes and metabolic pathways involved. Data from 1853 females belonging to the Agricultural Jacarezinho LTDA were used. Genotyping was performed using the BovineHD BeadChip (777 962 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)) according to the protocol of Illumina - Infinium Assay II ® Multi-Sample HiScan with the unit SQ ™ System. After quality control, 305 348 SNPs were used for GWAS. Forty-two and 19 SNPs had a Bayes factor greater than 150 for heifer rebreeding and age at first calving, respectively. All significant SNPs for age at first calving were significant for heifer rebreeding. These 42 SNPs were next or within 35 genes that were distributed over 18 chromosomes and comprised 27 protein-encoding genes, six pseudogenes and two miscellaneous noncoding RNAs. The use of Bayes factor to determine the significance of SNPs allowed us to identify two sets of 42 and 19 significant SNPs for heifer rebreeding and age at first calving, respectively, which explain 11.35 % and 6.42 % of their phenotypic variance, respectively. These SNPs provide relevant information to help elucidate which genes affect these traits.

Multilevel modelling for inference of genetic regulatory networks

Time-course experiments with microarrays are often used to study dynamic biological systems and genetic regulatory networks (GRNs) that model how genes influence each other in cell-level development of organisms. The inference for GRNs provides important insights into the fundamental biological processes such as growth and is useful in disease diagnosis and genomic drug design. Due to the experimental design, multilevel data hierarchies are often present in time-course gene expression data. Most existing methods, however, ignore the dependency of the expression measurements over time and the correlation among gene expression profiles. Such independence assumptions violate regulatory interactions and can result in overlooking certain important subject effects and lead to spurious inference for regulatory networks or mechanisms. In this paper, a multilevel mixed-effects model is adopted to incorporate data hierarchies in the analysis of time-course data, where temporal and subject effects are both assumed to be random. The method starts with the clustering of genes by fitting the mixture model within the multilevel random-effects model framework using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. The network of regulatory interactions is then determined by searching for regulatory control elements (activators and inhibitors) shared by the clusters of co-expressed genes, based on a time-lagged correlation coefficients measurement. The method is applied to two real time-course datasets from the budding yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) genome. It is shown that the proposed method provides clusters of cell-cycle regulated genes that are supported by existing gene function annotations, and hence enables inference on regulatory interactions for the genetic network.

ADVERTISEMENT ALLOCATION AND TRUST MECHANISMS DESIGN IN SOCIAL NETWORKS

Social network sites (SNS), such as Facebook, Google+ and Twitter, have attracted hundreds of millions of users daily since their appearance. Within SNS, users connect to each other, express their identity, disseminate information and form cooperation by interacting with their connected peers. The increasing popularity and ubiquity of SNS usage and the invaluable user behaviors and connections give birth to many applications and business models. We look into several important problems within the social network ecosystem. The first one is the SNS advertisement allocation problem. The other two are related to trust mechanisms design in social network setting, including local trust inference and global trust evaluation. In SNS advertising, we study the problem of advertisement allocation from the ad platform's angle, and discuss its differences with the advertising model in the search engine setting. By leveraging the connection between social networks and hyperbolic geometry, we propose to solve the problem via approximation using hyperbolic embedding and convex optimization. A hyperbolic embedding method, \hcm, is designed for the SNS ad allocation problem, and several components are introduced to realize the optimization formulation. We show the advantages of our new approach in solving the problem compared to the baseline integer programming (IP) formulation. In studying the problem of trust mechanisms in social networks, we consider the existence of distrust (i.e. negative trust) relationships, and differentiate between the concept of local trust and global trust in social network setting. In the problem of local trust inference, we propose a 2-D trust model. Based on the model, we develop a semiring-based trust inference framework. In global trust evaluation, we consider a general setting with conflicting opinions, and propose a consensus-based approach to solve the complex problem in signed trust networks.

Mechanisms Predisposing Penile Fracture And Long-term Outcomes On Erectile And Voiding Functions.

Purpose. To determine the mechanisms predisposing penile fracture as well as the rate of long-term penile deformity and erectile and voiding functions. Methods. All fractures were repaired on an emergency basis via subcoronal incision and absorbable suture with simultaneous repair of eventual urethral lesion. Patients' status before fracture and voiding and erectile functions at long term were assessed by periodic follow-up and phone call. Detailed history included cause, symptoms, and single-question self-report of erectile and voiding functions. Results. Among the 44 suspicious cases, 42 (95.4%) were confirmed, mean age was 34.5 years (range: 18-60), mean follow-up 59.3 months (range 9-155). Half presented the classical triad of audible crack, detumescence, and pain. Heterosexual intercourse was the most common cause (28 patients, 66.7%), followed by penile manipulation (6 patients, 14.3%), and homosexual intercourse (4 patients, 9.5%). Woman on top was the most common heterosexual position (n = 14, 50%), followed by doggy style (n = 8, 28.6%). Four patients (9.5%) maintained the cause unclear. Six (14.3%) patients had urethral injury and two (4.8%) had erectile dysfunction, treated by penile prosthesis and PDE-5i. No patient showed urethral fistula, voiding deterioration, penile nodule/curve or pain. Conclusions. Woman on top was the potentially riskiest sexual position (50%). Immediate surgical treatment warrants long-term very low morbidity.

Exploring Iris Colour Prediction And Ancestry Inference In Admixed Populations Of South America.

New DNA-based predictive tests for physical characteristics and inference of ancestry are highly informative tools that are being increasingly used in forensic genetic analysis. Two eye colour prediction models: a Bayesian classifier - Snipper and a multinomial logistic regression (MLR) system for the Irisplex assay, have been described for the analysis of unadmixed European populations. Since multiple SNPs in combination contribute in varying degrees to eye colour predictability in Europeans, it is likely that these predictive tests will perform in different ways amongst admixed populations that have European co-ancestry, compared to unadmixed Europeans. In this study we examined 99 individuals from two admixed South American populations comparing eye colour versus ancestry in order to reveal a direct correlation of light eye colour phenotypes with European co-ancestry in admixed individuals. Additionally, eye colour prediction following six prediction models, using varying numbers of SNPs and based on Snipper and MLR, were applied to the study populations. Furthermore, patterns of eye colour prediction have been inferred for a set of publicly available admixed and globally distributed populations from the HGDP-CEPH panel and 1000 Genomes databases with a special emphasis on admixed American populations similar to those of the study samples.

The Analgesic Effect Of Dipyrone In Peripheral Tissue Involves Two Different Mechanisms: Neuronal K(atp) Channel Opening And Cb(1) Receptor Activation.

Dipyrone (metamizole) is an analgesic pro-drug used to control moderate pain. It is metabolized in two major bioactive metabolites: 4-methylaminoantipyrine (4-MAA) and 4-aminoantipyrine (4-AA). The aim of this study was to investigate the participation of peripheral CB1 and CB2 cannabinoid receptors activation in the anti-hyperalgesic effect of dipyrone, 4-MAA or 4-AA. PGE2 (100ng/50µL/paw) was locally administered in the hindpaw of male Wistar rats, and the mechanical nociceptive threshold was quantified by electronic von Frey test, before and 3h after its injection. Dipyrone, 4-MAA or 4-AA was administered 30min before the von Frey test. The selective CB1 receptor antagonist AM251, CB2 receptor antagonist AM630, cGMP inhibitor ODQ or KATP channel blocker glibenclamide were administered 30min before dipyrone, 4-MAA or 4-AA. The antisense-ODN against CB1 receptor expression was intrathecally administered once a day during four consecutive days. PGE2-induced mechanical hyperalgesia was inhibited by dipyrone, 4-MAA, and 4-AA in a dose-response manner. AM251 or ODN anti-sense against neuronal CB1 receptor, but not AM630, reversed the anti-hyperalgesic effect mediated by 4-AA, but not by dipyrone or 4-MAA. On the other hand, the anti-hyperalgesic effect of dipyrone or 4-MAA was reversed by glibenclamide or ODQ. These results suggest that the activation of neuronal CB1, but not CB2 receptor, in peripheral tissue is involved in the anti-hyperalgesic effect of 4-aminoantipyrine. In addition, 4-methylaminoantipyrine mediates the anti-hyperalgesic effect by cGMP activation and KATP opening.

Neural Mechanisms And Delayed Gastric Emptying Of Liquid Induced Through Acute Myocardial Infarction In Rats.

Background: In pathological situations, such as acute myocardial infarction, disorders of motility of the proximal gut can trigger symptoms like nausea and vomiting. Acute myocardial infarction delays gastric emptying (GE) of liquid in rats. Objective: Investigate the involvement of the vagus nerve, α 1-adrenoceptors, central nervous system GABAB receptors and also participation of paraventricular nucleus (PVN) of the hypothalamus in GE and gastric compliance (GC) in infarcted rats. Methods: Wistar rats, N = 8-15 in each group, were divided as INF group and sham (SH) group and subdivided. The infarction was performed through ligation of the left anterior descending coronary artery. GC was estimated with pressure-volume curves. Vagotomy was performed by sectioning the dorsal and ventral branches. To verify the action of GABAB receptors, baclofen was injected via icv (intracerebroventricular). Intravenous prazosin was used to produce chemical sympathectomy. The lesion in the PVN of the hypothalamus was performed using a 1mA/10s electrical current and GE was determined by measuring the percentage of gastric retention (% GR) of a saline meal. Results: No significant differences were observed regarding GC between groups; vagotomy significantly reduced % GR in INF group; icv treatment with baclofen significantly reduced %GR. GABAB receptors were not conclusively involved in delaying GE; intravenous treatment with prazosin significantly reduced GR% in INF group. PVN lesion abolished the effect of myocardial infarction on GE. Conclusion: Gastric emptying of liquids induced through acute myocardial infarction in rats showed the involvement of the vagus nerve, alpha1- adrenergic receptors and PVN.Fundamento: Distúrbios da motilidade do intestino proximal no infarto agudo do miocárdio podem desencadear sintomas digestivos como náuseas e vômitos. O infarto do miocárdio ocasiona retardo do esvaziamento gástrico (EG) de líquido em ratos. Objetivo: Investigar se existe a influência do nervo vago (VGX), adrenoreceptores α-1, receptores GABAB do sistema nervoso central e participação do núcleo paraventricular (NPV) do hipotálamo no esvaziamento gástrico (EG) e complacência gástrica (CG) em ratos infartados. Métodos: Ratos Wistar (n = 8-15) foram divididos em: grupo infarto (INF), sham (SH) e subdivididos. O infarto foi realizado por ligadura da artéria coronária descendente anterior. A complacência gástrica foi estimada com curvas pressão-volume. Realizada vagotomia por secção dos ramos dorsal e ventral. Para verificar a ação dos receptores GABAB foi injetado baclofeno por via intra ventrículo-cerebral. Simpatectomia química foi realizada com prazosina intravenosa (iv), e na lesão do núcleo paraventricular do hipotálamo foi utilizada corrente elétrica de 1mA/10s, com esvaziamento gástrico determinado por medição da retenção gástrica (% RG) de uma refeição salina. Resultados: Não houve diferença significativa na CG. A vagotomia (VGX) reduziu significativamente a %RG; no grupo INF, o tratamento intra ventrículo-cerebral (ivc) com baclofeno reduziu significativamente a % RG; não houve conclusivamente envolvimento dos receptores GABAB em retardar o EG; o tratamento intravenoso com prazosina reduziu significativamente a %RG no grupo INF. A lesão do NPV aboliu o efeito do infarto do miocárdio no EG. Conclusão: O nervo vago, receptores α-adrenérgicos e núcleo paraventricular estão envolvidos no retardo do esvaziamento gástrico no infarto agudo do miocárdio em ratos.

Urothelial Carcinogen Resistance Driven By Stronger Toll-like Receptor 2 (tlr2) And Uroplakin Iii (up Iii) Defense Mechanisms: A New Model.

The objective of the study was to illustrate the applicability and significance of the novel Lewis urothelial cancer model compared to the classic Fisher 344. Fischer 344 and Lewis females rats, 7 weeks old, were intravesical instilled N-methyl-N-nitrosourea 1.5 mg/kg every other week for a total of four doses. After 15 weeks, animals were sacrificed and bladders analyzed: histopathology (tumor grade and stage), immunohistochemistry (apoptotic and proliferative indices) and blotting (Toll-like receptor 2-TLR2, Uroplakin III-UP III and C-Myc). Control groups received placebo. There were macroscopic neoplastic lesions in 20 % of Lewis strain and 70 % of Fischer 344 strain. Lewis showed hyperplasia in 50 % of animals, normal bladders in 50 %. All Fischer 344 had lesions, 20 % papillary hyperplasia, 30 % dysplasia, 40 % neoplasia and 10 % squamous metaplasia. Proliferative and apoptotic indices were significantly lower in the Lewis strain (p < 0.01). The TLR2 and UP III protein levels were significantly higher in Lewis compared to Fischer 344 strain (70.8 and 46.5 % vs. 49.5 and 16.9 %, respectively). In contrast, C-Myc protein levels were significantly higher in Fischer 344 (22.5 %) compared to Lewis strain (13.7 %). The innovative Lewis carcinogen resistance urothelial model represents a new strategy for translational research. Preservation of TLR2 and UP III defense mechanisms might drive diverse urothelial phenotypes during carcinogenesis in differently susceptible individuals.