New Bivariate Lifetime Distributions Based on Bath-Tub Shaped Failure Rate

A class of lifetime distributions which has received considerable attention in modelling and analysis of lifetime data is the class of lifetime distributions with bath-tub shaped failure rate functions because of their extensive applications. The purpose of this thesis was to introduce a new class of bivariate lifetime distributions with bath-tub shaped failure rates (BTFRFs). In this research, first we reviewed univariate lifetime distributions with bath-tub shaped failure rates, and several multivariate extensions of a univariate failure rate function. Then we introduced a new class of bivariate distributions with bath-tub shaped failure rates (hazard gradients). Specifically, the new class of bivariate lifetime distributions were developed using the method of Morgenstern’s method of defining bivariate class of distributions with given marginals. The computer simulations and numerical computations were used to investigate the properties of these distributions.

Clinical outcomes of patients with low-flow, low-gradient, severe aortic stenosis and either preserved or reduced ejection fraction undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation

AIMS Our aim was to evaluate the invasive haemodynamic indices of high-risk symptomatic patients presenting with 'paradoxical' low-flow, low-gradient, severe aortic stenosis (AS) (PLF-LG) and low-flow, low-gradient severe AS (LEF-LG) and to compare clinical outcomes following transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) among these challenging AS subgroups. METHODS AND RESULTS Of 534 symptomatic patients undergoing TAVI, 385 had a full pre-procedural right and left heart catheterization. A total of 208 patients had high-gradient severe AS [HGAS; mean gradient (MG) ≥40 mmHg], 85 had PLF-LG [MG ≤ 40 mmHg, indexed aortic valve area [iAVA] ≤0.6 cm(2) m(-2), stroke volume index ≤35 mL/m(2), ejection fraction (EF) ≥50%], and 61 had LEF-LG (MG ≤ 40 mmHg, iAVA ≤0.6 cm(2) m(-2), EF ≤40%). Compared with HGAS, PLF-LG and LEF-LG had higher systemic vascular resistances (HGAS: 1912 ± 654 vs. PLF-LG 2006 ± 586 vs. LEF-LG 2216 ± 765 dyne s m(-5), P = 0.007) but lower valvulo-arterial impedances (HGAS: 7.8 ± 2.7 vs. PLF-LG 6.9 ± 1.9 vs. LEF-LG 7.7 ± 2.5 mmHg mL(-1) m(-2), P = 0.027). At 30 days, no differences in cardiac death (6.5 vs. 4.9 vs. 6.6%, P = 0.90) or death (8.4 vs. 6.1 vs. 6.6%, P = 0.88) were observed among HGAS, PLF-LG, and LEF-LG groups, respectively. At 1 year, New York Heart Association functional improvement occurred in most surviving patients (HGAS: 69.2% vs. PLF-LG 71.7% vs. LEF-LG 89.3%, P = 0.09) and no significant differences in overall mortality were observed (17.6 vs. 20.5 vs. 24.5%, P = 0.67). Compared with HGAS, LEF-LG had a higher 1 year cardiac mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 2.45, 95% confidence interval 1.04-5.75, P = 0.04). CONCLUSION TAVI in PLF-LG or LEF-LG patients is associated with overall mortality rates comparable with HGAS patients and all groups profit symptomatically to a similar extent.

Impact of mitral regurgitation on clinical outcomes of patients with low-ejection fraction, low-gradient severe aortic stenosis undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

BACKGROUND Up to 1 in 6 patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) present with low-ejection fraction, low-gradient (LEF-LG) severe aortic stenosis and concomitant relevant mitral regurgitation (MR) is present in 30% to 55% of these patients. The effect of MR on clinical outcomes of LEF-LG patients undergoing TAVI is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS Of 606 consecutive patients undergoing TAVI, 113 (18.7%) patients with LEF-LG severe aortic stenosis (mean gradient ≤40 mm Hg, aortic valve area <1.0 cm(2), left ventricular ejection fraction <50%) were analyzed. LEF-LG patients were dichotomized into ≤mild MR (n=52) and ≥moderate MR (n=61). Primary end point was all-cause mortality at 1 year. No differences in mortality were observed at 30 days (P=0.76). At 1 year, LEF-LG patients with ≥moderate MR had an adjusted 3-fold higher rate of all-cause mortality (11.5% versus 38.1%; adjusted hazard ratio, 3.27 [95% confidence interval, 1.31-8.15]; P=0.011), as compared with LEF-LG patients with ≤mild MR. Mortality was mainly driven by cardiac death (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.62; P=0.005). As compared with LEF-LG patients with ≥moderate MR assigned to medical therapy, LEF-LG patients with ≥moderate MR undergoing TAVI had significantly lower all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.019-0.75) at 1 year. CONCLUSIONS Moderate or severe MR is a strong independent predictor of late mortality in LEF-LG patients undergoing TAVI. However, LEF-LG patients assigned to medical therapy have a dismal prognosis independent of MR severity suggesting that TAVI should not be withheld from symptomatic patients with LEF-LG severe aortic stenosis even in the presence of moderate or severe MR.

Clinical outcomes and revascularization strategies in patients with low-flow, low-gradient severe aortic valve stenosis according to the assigned treatment modality

OBJECTIVES This study compared clinical outcomes and revascularization strategies among patients presenting with low ejection fraction, low-gradient (LEF-LG) severe aortic stenosis (AS) according to the assigned treatment modality. BACKGROUND The optimal treatment modality for patients with LEF-LG severe AS and concomitant coronary artery disease (CAD) requiring revascularization is unknown. METHODS Of 1,551 patients, 204 with LEF-LG severe AS (aortic valve area <1.0 cm(2), ejection fraction <50%, and mean gradient <40 mm Hg) were allocated to medical therapy (MT) (n = 44), surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) (n = 52), or transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) (n = 108). CAD complexity was assessed using the SYNTAX score (SS) in 187 of 204 patients (92%). The primary endpoint was mortality at 1 year. RESULTS LEF-LG severe AS patients undergoing SAVR were more likely to undergo complete revascularization (17 of 52, 35%) compared with TAVR (8 of 108, 8%) and MT (0 of 44, 0%) patients (p < 0.001). Compared with MT, both SAVR (adjusted hazard ratio [adj HR]: 0.16; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.07 to 0.38; p < 0.001) and TAVR (adj HR: 0.30; 95% CI: 0.18 to 0.52; p < 0.001) improved survival at 1 year. In TAVR and SAVR patients, CAD severity was associated with higher rates of cardiovascular death (no CAD: 12.2% vs. low SS [0 to 22], 15.3% vs. high SS [>22], 31.5%; p = 0.037) at 1 year. Compared with no CAD/complete revascularization, TAVR and SAVR patients undergoing incomplete revascularization had significantly higher 1-year cardiovascular death rates (adj HR: 2.80; 95% CI: 1.07 to 7.36; p = 0.037). CONCLUSIONS Among LEF-LG severe AS patients, SAVR and TAVR improved survival compared with MT. CAD severity was associated with worse outcomes and incomplete revascularization predicted 1-year cardiovascular mortality among TAVR and SAVR patients.

Smoothing a Discrete Hazard Function for the Number of Patients Colonized with Methicillin-Resistance Staphylococcus Aureus in an Intensive Care Unit

A new method for estimating the time to colonization of Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) patients is developed in this paper. The time to colonization of MRSA is modelled using a Bayesian smoothing approach for the hazard function. There are two prior models discussed in this paper: the first difference prior and the second difference prior. The second difference prior model gives smoother estimates of the hazard functions and, when applied to data from an intensive care unit (ICU), clearly shows increasing hazard up to day 13, then a decreasing hazard. The results clearly demonstrate that the hazard is not constant and provide a useful quantification of the effect of length of stay on the risk of MRSA colonization which provides useful insight.

Reducing MRI gradient coil vibration with rib stiffeners

This work investigates the effect of rib stiffeners on the free and forced vibration of a gradient coil in a Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scanner. Several reinforcement schemes are studied in this paper. One scheme utilizes the existing holes in the gradient coil structure (typically reserved for magnetic shims) to produce the reinforcement. Non-ferrous, non-magnetic carbon fibre rib stiffeners are employed to fill these holes in several ways to strengthen a gradient coil. Another scheme replaces the inner half of the gradient coil material with a grid of interconnected axial and circumferential rib stiffeners. It is found that the structural stiffness of the gradient coil increases substantially when the coil is reinforced by carbon fibre rib stiffeners. The reinforcement affects the noise and vibration response of the gradient coil structure in the following ways. It increases the frequency range of forced response of the gradient coil at low frequencies due to the increased resonant frequency of the fundamental mode of the coil. Secondly, it reduces the forced response amplitude of the coil structure (which is governed by the structural stiffness of the coil). Thirdly, it reduces the number of natural modes in the low and medium frequency range and therefore lessens the chance of the coil structure being excited resonantly by magnetic resonance signal acquisition sequences. It is shown that gradient coils modelled by solid finite element models have higher stiffness along the coil’s circumference and lower stiffness in the axial direction than those using shell finite element models.

The explicit hazard model – part 1: theoretical development

Modern Engineering Asset Management (EAM) requires the accurate assessment of current and the prediction of future asset health condition. Appropriate mathematical models that are capable of estimating times to failures and the probability of failures in the future are essential in EAM. In most real-life situations, the lifetime of an engineering asset is influenced and/or indicated by different factors that are termed as covariates. Hazard prediction with covariates is an elemental notion in the reliability theory to estimate the tendency of an engineering asset failing instantaneously beyond the current time assumed that it has already survived up to the current time. A number of statistical covariate-based hazard models have been developed. However, none of them has explicitly incorporated both external and internal covariates into one model. This paper introduces a novel covariate-based hazard model to address this concern. This model is named as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM). Both the semi-parametric and non-parametric forms of this model are presented in the paper. The major purpose of this paper is to illustrate the theoretical development of EHM. Due to page limitation, a case study with the reliability field data is presented in the applications part of this study.

The Explicit Hazard Model – Part 2 : Applications

Hazard and reliability prediction of an engineering asset is one of the significant fields of research in Engineering Asset Health Management (EAHM). In real-life situations where an engineering asset operates under dynamic operational and environmental conditions, the lifetime of an engineering asset can be influenced and/or indicated by different factors that are termed as covariates. The Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) as a covariate-based hazard model is a new approach for hazard prediction which explicitly incorporates both internal and external covariates into one model. EHM is an appropriate model to use in the analysis of lifetime data in presence of both internal and external covariates in the reliability field. This paper presents applications of the methodology which is introduced and illustrated in the theory part of this study. In this paper, the semi-parametric EHM is applied to a case study so as to predict the hazard and reliability of resistance elements on a Resistance Corrosion Sensor Board (RCSB).

Comparing subjective and objective measures of health : Evidence from hypertension for the income/health gradient

Economists rely heavily on self-reported measures to examine the relationship between income and health. We directly compare survey responses of a self-reported measure of health that is commonly used in nationally representative surveys with objective measures of the same health condition. We focus on hypertension. We find no evidence of an income/health greadient using self-reported hypertension but a sizeable gradient when using objectively measured hypertension. We also find that the probability of a false negative reporting is significantly income graded. Our results suggest that using commonly available self-reported chronic health measures might underestimate true income-related inequalities in health.

A comparison of the hazard perception ability of matched groups of healthy drivers aged 35 to 55, 65 to 74, and 75 to 84 years

We examined differences in response latencies obtained during a validated video-based hazard perception driving test between three healthy, community-dwelling groups: 22 mid-aged (35-55 years), 34 young-old (65-74 years), and 23 old-old (75-84 years) current drivers, matched for gender, education level, and vocabulary. We found no significant difference in performance between mid-aged and young-old groups, but the old-old group was significantly slower than the other two groups. The differences between the old-old group and the other groups combined were independently mediated by useful field of view (UFOV), contrast sensitivity, and simple reaction time measures. Given that hazard perception latency has been linked with increased crash risk, these results are consistent with the idea that increased crash risk in older adults could be a function of poorer hazard perception, though this decline does not appear to manifest until age 75+ in healthy drivers.

Lateral buckling strength of simply supported LiteSteel beams subject to moment gradient effects

The flexural capacity of of a new cold-formed hollow flange channel section known as LiteSteel beam (LSB) is limited by lateral distortional buckling for intermediate spans, which is characterised by simultaneous lateral deflection, twist and web distortion. Recent research has developed suitable design rules for the member capacity of LSBs. However, they are limited to a uniform moment distribution that rarely exists in practice. Many steel design codes have adopted equivalent uniform moment distribution factors to accommodate the effect of non-uniform moment distributions in design. But they were derived mostly based on the data for conventional hot-rolled, doubly symmetric I-beams subject to lateral torsional buckling. The effect of moment distribution for LSBs, and the suitability of the current steel design code rules to include this effect for LSBs are not yet known. This paper presents the details of a research study based on finite element analyses of the lateral buckling strength of simply supported LSBs subject to moment gradient effects. It also presents the details of a number of LSB lateral buckling experiments undertaken to validate the results of finite element analyses. Finally, it discusses the suitability of the current design methods, and provides design recommendations for simply supported LSBs subject to moment gradient effects.