Enhanced stochastic mobility prediction with multi-output Gaussian processes

Outdoor robots such as planetary rovers must be able to navigate safely and reliably in order to successfully perform missions in remote or hostile environments. Mobility prediction is critical to achieving this goal due to the inherent control uncertainty faced by robots traversing natural terrain. We propose a novel algorithm for stochastic mobility prediction based on multi-output Gaussian process regression. Our algorithm considers the correlation between heading and distance uncertainty and provides a predictive model that can easily be exploited by motion planning algorithms. We evaluate our method experimentally and report results from over 30 trials in a Mars-analogue environment that demonstrate the effectiveness of our method and illustrate the importance of mobility prediction in navigating challenging terrain.

Accelerating Pseudo-Marginal MCMC using Gaussian Processes

Pseudo-marginal methods such as the grouped independence Metropolis-Hastings (GIMH) and Markov chain within Metropolis (MCWM) algorithms have been introduced in the literature as an approach to perform Bayesian inference in latent variable models. These methods replace intractable likelihood calculations with unbiased estimates within Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The GIMH method has the posterior of interest as its limiting distribution, but suffers from poor mixing if it is too computationally intensive to obtain high-precision likelihood estimates. The MCWM algorithm has better mixing properties, but less theoretical support. In this paper we propose to use Gaussian processes (GP) to accelerate the GIMH method, whilst using a short pilot run of MCWM to train the GP. Our new method, GP-GIMH, is illustrated on simulated data from a stochastic volatility and a gene network model.

Integral Transformations of Volterra Gaussian Processes

We study integral representations of Gaussian processes with a pre-specified law in terms of other Gaussian processes. The dissertation consists of an introduction and of four research articles. In the introduction, we provide an overview about Volterra Gaussian processes in general, and fractional Brownian motion in particular. In the first article, we derive a finite interval integral transformation, which changes fractional Brownian motion with a given Hurst index into fractional Brownian motion with an other Hurst index. Based on this transformation, we construct a prelimit which formally converges to an analogous, infinite interval integral transformation. In the second article, we prove this convergence rigorously and show that the infinite interval transformation is a direct consequence of the finite interval transformation. In the third article, we consider general Volterra Gaussian processes. We derive measure-preserving transformations of these processes and their inherently related bridges. Also, as a related result, we obtain a Fourier-Laguerre series expansion for the first Wiener chaos of a Gaussian martingale. In the fourth article, we derive a class of ergodic transformations of self-similar Volterra Gaussian processes.

Validation based sparse Gaussian processes for ordinal regression

This paper proposes a sparse modeling approach to solve ordinal regression problems using Gaussian processes (GP). Designing a sparse GP model is important from training time and inference time viewpoints. We first propose a variant of the Gaussian process ordinal regression (GPOR) approach, leave-one-out GPOR (LOO-GPOR). It performs model selection using the leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) technique. We then provide an approach to design a sparse model for GPOR. The sparse GPOR model reduces computational time and storage requirements. Further, it provides faster inference. We compare the proposed approaches with the state-of-the-art GPOR approach on some benchmark data sets. Experimental results show that the proposed approaches are competitive.

Nonparametric Bayesian Density Modeling with Gaussian Processes

We present the Gaussian process density sampler (GPDS), an exchangeable generative model for use in nonparametric Bayesian density estimation. Samples drawn from the GPDS are consistent with exact, independent samples from a distribution defined by a density that is a transformation of a function drawn from a Gaussian process prior. Our formulation allows us to infer an unknown density from data using Markov chain Monte Carlo, which gives samples from the posterior distribution over density functions and from the predictive distribution on data space. We describe two such MCMC methods. Both methods also allow inference of the hyperparameters of the Gaussian process.