The post-communist fertility puzzle

Fertility has unanimously declined across the entire post-communist region. This study explores the variation in fertility trends over time among these countries and assesses to what degree three explanations are applicable: second demographic transition (SDT), postponement transition (PPT) or reaction to the economic crisis. Moreover, on the basis of SDT and PPT theoretical tenets, as well as descriptive evidence, the economic context is hypothesized to be linked to two processes of fertility decline conversely. The results show that no one theoretical explanation is sufficient to explain the complex fertility declines across the entire post-communist region from 1990 to 2003. In some countries, a great part of the decline in fertility occurred before significant postponement of childbearing began, which indicates that the dramatic decline was due to stopping behavior or postponement of higher order births. Postponement of first births, either through PPT or SDT processes, greatly contributed to fertility decline in a small number of countries. Pooled cross-sectional time-series analyses of age-specific birthrates confirm that these two distinct processes are present and show that the economic crisis explanation has explanatory power for declining birth rates. In contrast, logistic regressions show that the likelihood of postponing childbirth increases with improved economic conditions. These results confirm the importance of taking the economic context into account when discussing explanations for fertility decline. More specifically, the results indicate that the severity and duration of economic crisis, or absence thereof, influenced the extent and manner in which fertility declined.

The impact of labour market status on second and higher-order births. A comparative study of Denmark, Italy, Spain and United Kingdom

This paper investigates the effects of women‘s labour force participation on fertility, as well as the effects of the combined labour force participation of both members of a couple. It specifically focuses on such dimensions as unemployment, earnings, temporary contracts and part-time jobs, and it shows that their effects differ in accordance with national institutions and labour market regulations. Event-history methods and a longitudinal sample of the European Community Household Panel are used in the analyses, concerning the years 1993-2000. The results show that labour market insecurity of one or both members of a couple has a particularly strong impact in reducing birth rates in the Southern European countries studied. The more conventional model of men’s employment combined with housewifery has a positive impact on second or higher order births in United Kingdom, Spain and Italy, while in Denmark the effect is the opposite. These differences are consistent with different national models of combining parental responsibilities and participation by gender across the life course.

The impact of women's educational and economic resources on fertility: Spanish birth cohorts 1901-1950

In this chapter we portray the effects of female education and professional achievement on fertility decline in Spain over the period 1920-1980 (birth cohorts of 1901-1950).A longitudinal econometric approach is used to test the hypothesis that the effects of women’s education in the revaluing of their time had a very significant influence on fertility decline. Although in the historical context presented here improvements in schooling were on a modest scale, they were continuous (with the interruption of the Civil War) and had a significant impact in shaping a model of low fertility in Spain. We also stress the relevance of this result in a context such as the Spanish for which liberal values were absent, fertility control practices were forbidden, and labour force participation of women was politically and socially constrained.

When mothers work and fathers care. Joint household fertility decisions in Denmark and Spain

We analyze second birth decisions within the theoretical framework of joint household decision making, comparing two countires that represent the international extremes in terms of women's career behaviour, Denmark and Spain. Using all 8 ECHP panels we apply discrete time estimations of the likelihood of a second birth and show that in Spain, fertility behaviour continues to conform to the classic "Becker model" while in Denmark we identify a radically new behavioral pattern according to which career-women's fertility is conditional of their partners' contribution to care for the children.

Regional child care availability and fertility decisions in Spain

In this paper I explore two hypotheses: (1) Formal child care availability for children under three has a positive effect across contexts, according to the degree of adaptation of social institutions to changes in gender roles. Event history models with regional fixed effects are applied to data from the European Community Household Panel (1994-2001). The results show a significant and positive effect of regional day care availability on both, first and higher order births, while results are consistent with the second hypothesis only for second or higher order births.

Joint determinants of education enrolment and first birth timing in France and West Germany

We examined the reciprocal influence between educational decisions and the timing of first births, using the Family and Fertility Surveys of France and West Germany. Since these two processes are potentially endogenous, we modelled them jointly, using event history models. We hypothesise that the reciprocal impact of educational and fertility careers, as well as the impact of the common determinants of both processes, are gender specific and context specific.The results show a significant endogeneity for women and men in both countries. This endogeneity is stronger for women than for men, while no substantial differences are found between the two countries. Removing this shared and unobserved heterogeneity, the results show a stronger reciprocal impact between the processes for women than for men. A similar impact of being enrolled in education on first birth in both countries is found, while the effect of the birth (and especially of the pregnancy) of the first child on terminating one’s education appeared to be more marked in West Gernany than in France.

El efecto del empleo, el paro y los contratos temporales en la baja fecundidad española de los años 1990

España destaca en el contexto europeo tanto por sus bajos niveles de fecundidad como por sus altos niveles de paro e inestabilidad en el empleo. En este texto se investigan empíricamente los efectos de la participación laboral de las mujeres y de sus parejas sobre la fecundidad, y más específicamente el impacto de los contratos temporales y el desempleo. La perspectiva teórica utilizada se basa en el análisis de los cursos de vida individuales y subraya las influencias del contexto institucional y social. Se utiliza una muestra longitudinal del Panel de Hogares de las Comunidades Europeas, relativa a los años 1994-2001, y métodos de análisis de biografias. Los resultados indican un acusado impacto negativo de la inestabilidad en el empleo, que supone una posposición en el calendario de la fecundidad y una reducción de las tasas de fecundidad. Este efecto depresivo sobre la fecundidad es aún más intenso cuando los dos miembros de la pareja están en situación laboral precaria.

Utopías y demografía. Escenario de un futuro a evitar: El envejecimiento y el conflicto entre generaciones

Los problemas de población pueden ser considerados desde un punto de vista sociológico, como conflicto social entre grupos insolidarios que defienden su propio interés.Frente al dilema ético de los límites de la investigación y de su aplicación al ser humano y desde el punto de vista social; el futuro se puede plantear en términos de egoísmo o de solidaridad, de derechos o de disminución de recursos, de enfrentamiento o de consenso.

El reemplazo por las migraciones: natalidad y fecundidad de los extranjeros en España

Resulta muy difícil estimar el aporte al crecimiento natural de las personas venidas de fueras y nuevos residentes, de acuerdo con la propuesta de Naciones Unidas. Históricamente, No ha habido acuerdo acerca de la fecundidad de los migrantes. Andorka consideró que la migración producía un efecto depresor en la fecundidad. Estudios sobre la fecundidad de los migrantes internos en la sociedad catalana han mostrado el contraste entre un creciente indicador sintético de fecundidad (ISF) y un efecto reducido en la fecundidad longitudinal. Un intento de explicación basado en el tiempo, nacimientos pospuestos y adaptación, se presenta. Se trata de una combinación de la propuesta de Andorka del efecto depresor de la fecundidad, con un segundo tiempo de recuperación en destino. Esta Hipótesis en dos Tiempos (H2T) tiene carácter tentativo. Considera sólo un efecto de calendario. Se utilizan datos oficiales de la Encuesta de Fecundidad de 1999, de un Censo anterior y de natalidad. La H2T se considera una explicación posible de las altas tasas de natalidad de Europa y América.Estimaciones sobre la evolución de los nacimientos futuros de mujeres extranjeras, en al menos dos escenarios, son contemplados al final del artículo.

Documento sobre salud sexual y reproductiva en la adolescencia

El grup ha analitzat els problemes existents quant a la salut sexual i reproductiva en l'adolescència i la validesa del consentimentinformat dels menors. Aquesta qüestió requereix un debat social informat, encaminat a assolir el consens suficient per portar a terme les actuacions necessàries -d'acord amb la normativa ja existent per a la majoria dels supòsits- que protegeixin l'interès del menor, considerat en la nostra legislació com sempre preferent.

Educational attainment and timing of fertility decisions

This paper focuses on timing of fertility decisions, conditional on the level of educational attainment of parents. Timing of fertility and educational attainment of parents rationalize the negative relationship observed in the data between hourly wages and childbearing. It is shown how the recent evolution in total fertility rates observed in developed countries could be in part the result of a transition from an early childbearing regime to a late childbearing regime. I develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model in order to understand the joint determination of timing of childbearing decisions together with other household economic decisions in a life cycle framework. I show how idiosyncratic uncertainty might have asymmetric efects on completed fertility depending on timing of childbearing, generating the diferences in completed fertility observed between households that difer in their level of educational attainment.

Interiority of the optimal population growth rate with endogenous fertility

This paper analyzes the issue of the interiority of the optimal population growth rate in a two-period overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility. Using Cobb-Douglas utility and production functions, we show that the introduction of a cost of raising children allows for the possibility of the existence of an interior global maximum in the planner¿s problem, contrary to the exogenous fertility case

Educational attainment and timing of fertility decisions

This paper focuses on timing of fertility decisions, conditional on the level of educational attainment of parents. Timing of fertility and educational attainment of parents rationalize the negative relationship observed in the data between hourly wages and childbearing. It is shown how the recent evolution in total fertility rates observed in developed countries could be in part the result of a transition from an early childbearing regime to a late childbearing regime. I develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model in order to understand the joint determination of timing of childbearing decisions together with other household economic decisions in a life cycle framework. I show how idiosyncratic uncertainty might have asymmetric efects on completed fertility depending on timing of childbearing, generating the diferences in completed fertility observed between households that difer in their level of educational attainment.

Interiority of the optimal population growth rate with endogenous fertility

This paper analyzes the issue of the interiority of the optimal population growth rate in a two-period overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility. Using Cobb-Douglas utility and production functions, we show that the introduction of a cost of raising children allows for the possibility of the existence of an interior global maximum in the planner¿s problem, contrary to the exogenous fertility case

Utopías y demografía. Escenario de un futuro a evitar: El envejecimiento y el conflicto entre generaciones

Los problemas de población pueden ser considerados desde un punto de vista sociológico, como conflicto social entre grupos insolidarios que defienden su propio interés.Frente al dilema ético de los límites de la investigación y de su aplicación al ser humano y desde el punto de vista social; el futuro se puede plantear en términos de egoísmo o de solidaridad, de derechos o de disminución de recursos, de enfrentamiento o de consenso.