Three Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing

The financial crisis of 2007-2008 led to extraordinary government intervention in firms and markets. The scope and depth of government action rivaled that of the Great Depression. Many traded markets experienced dramatic declines in liquidity leading to the existence of conditions normally assumed to be promptly removed via the actions of profit seeking arbitrageurs. These extreme events motivate the three essays in this work. The first essay seeks and fails to find evidence of investor behavior consistent with the broad 'Too Big To Fail' policies enacted during the crisis by government agents. Only in limited circumstances, where government guarantees such as deposit insurance or U.S. Treasury lending lines already existed, did investors impart a premium to the debt security prices of firms under stress. The second essay introduces the Inflation Indexed Swap Basis (IIS Basis) in examining the large differences between cash and derivative markets based upon future U.S. inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It reports the consistent positive value of this measure as well as the very large positive values it reached in the fourth quarter of 2008 after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. It concludes that the IIS Basis continues to exist due to limitations in market liquidity and hedging alternatives. The third essay explores the methodology of performing debt based event studies utilizing credit default swaps (CDS). It provides practical implementation advice to researchers to address limited source data and/or small target firm sample size.

Special investigation report : wing failure of Boeing 747-131, near Madrid, Spain, May 9, 1976.

Issued Oct. 6, 1978.

Speech of Mr. Reed, of Massachusetts, in relation to the failure of the bill making appropriations for fortifications at the last session of Congress. Delivered in the House of Representatives, January 27, 1836.

Mode of access: Internet.

Predicting success or failure of tax -base revenue sharing attempts: A comparative analysis

To promote regional or mutual improvement, numerous interjurisdictional efforts to share tax bases have been attempted. Most of these efforts fail to be consummated. Motivations to share revenues include: narrowing fiscal disparities, enhancing regional cooperation and economic development, rationalizing land-use, and minimizing revenue losses caused by competition to attract and keep businesses. Various researchers have developed theories to aid understanding of why interjurisdictional cooperation efforts succeed or fail. Walter Rosenbaum and Gladys Kammerer studied two contemporaneous Florida local-government consolidation attempts. Boyd Messinger subsequently tested their Theory of Successful Consolidation on nine consolidation attempts. Paul Peterson's dual theories on Modern Federalism posit that all governmental levels attempt to further economic development and that politicians act in ways that either further their futures or cement job security. Actions related to the latter theory often interfere with the former. Samuel Nunn and Mark Rosentraub sought to learn how interjurisdictional cooperation evolves. Through multiple case studies they developed a model framing interjurisdictional cooperation in four dimensions. ^ This dissertation investigates the ability of the above theories to help predict success or failure of regional tax-base revenue sharing attempts. A research plan was formed that used five sequenced steps to gather data, analyze it, and conclude if hypotheses concerning the application of these theories were valid. The primary analytical tools were: multiple case studies, cross-case analysis, and pattern matching. Data was gathered from historical records, questionnaires, and interviews. ^ The results of this research indicate that Rosenbaum-Kammerer theory can be a predictor of success or failure in implementing tax-base revenue sharing if it is amended as suggested by Messinger and further modified by a recommendation in this dissertation. Peterson's Functional and Legislative theories considered together were able to predict revenue sharing proposal outcomes. Many of the indicators of interjurisdictional cooperation forwarded in the Nunn-Rosentraub model appeared in the cases studied, but the model was not a reliable forecasting instrument. ^

Failure of Imiquimod 5% Cream to Prevent Recurrence of Surgically Excised Trunk Keloids

Keloids are characterized by benign proliferation of fibroblasts in the setting of an altered cytokine profile, with a high recurrence rate after surgical treatment. Imiquimod is a topically applied immune-response modifier. Recently, auxiliary therapy using imiquimod 5% cream to prevent keloid recurrence after excisional surgery was reported to have had good results. To evaluate the efficacy of topical imiquimod 5% cream applied after surgical excision and primary closure of trunk keloids in the prevention of recurrence. Nine patients with a keloid lesion on the trunk were treated with surgical excision and primary closure. Daily application of imiquimod 5% cream for 8 weeks was initiated the night of surgery. The patients were evaluated 2, 4, 8, 12, and 20 weeks after. Keloid recurrence occurred in eight patients, seven of them 12 weeks after surgery. We lost track of one patient. The results of this study suggest that imiquimod 5% cream is not effective in preventing recurrence of trunk keloids after surgical excision. Although this is a small case series, results strongly discourage other studies using imiquimod 5% cream in the prevention of surgically excised trunk keloids. The authors have indicated no significant interest with commercial supporters.

Nonhuman primate models and the failure of the Merck HIV-1 vaccine in humans

The adenovirus type 5 (Ad5)-based vaccine developed by Merck failed to either prevent HIV-1 infection or suppress viral load in subsequently infected subjects in the STEP human Phase 2b efficacy trial. Analogous vaccines had previously also failed in the simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) challenge-rhesus macaque model. In contrast, vaccine protection studies that used challenge with a chimeric simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV89.6P) in macaques did not predict the human trial results. Ad5 vector -based vaccines did not protect macaques from infection after SHIV89.6P challenge but did cause a substantial reduction in viral load and a preservation of CD4(+) T cell counts after infection, findings that were not reproduced in the human trials. Although the SIV challenge model is incompletely validated, we propose that its expanded use can help facilitate the prioritization of candidate HIV-1 vaccines, ensuring that resources are focused on the most promising candidates. Vaccine designers must now develop T cell vaccine strategies that reduce viral load after heterologous challenge.

How logrolling can explain the failure of the government coalition in Brazil

This article presents an analysis of the behavior of federal representatives in the Brazilian House of Representatives between 1995 and 1998, when a series of constitutional amendments were presented by the president to be voted on by Congress. The objective is to show that the lack of a stable government coalition resulted in costs to society that were not anticipated by the government. The study argues that a logroll - a trade of votes - was the strategy used by the government in order to guarantee the number of votes necessary to approve the amendments. This strategy created a vicious system in which representatives would only vote with the government if they had benefits in return.

Reconstitution of the failure of the Fonte Santa mine tailings dam. Modelling of the dam breaching process

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil Perfil de Estruturas e Geotecnia

Failure of nitric oxide production by macrophages and decrease in CD4+ T cells in oral paracoccidioidomycosis: possible mechanisms that permit local fungal multiplication

Paracoccidioidomycosis is a chronic granulomatous disease that induces a specific inflammatory and immune response. The participation of nitric oxide (NO), a product of the inducible nitric oxide synthase enzyme (iNOS), as an important fungicidal molecule against Paracoccidioides brasiliensis has been demonstrated. In order to further characterize the Oral Paracoccidioidomycosis (OP), we undertook an immunohistochemical study of iNOS+, CD45RO+, CD3+, CD8+, CD20+, CD68+ cells and mast cells. The samples were distributed in groups according to the number of viable fungi per mm². Our results showed weak immunolabeling for iNOS in the multinucleated giant cells (MNGC) and in most of the mononuclear (MN) cells, and the proportion of iNOS+ MN/MNGC cells in the OP were comparable to Control (clinically healthy oral tissues). Additionally, our analysis revealed a similarity in the number of CD4+ cells between the Control and the OP groups with higher numbers of fungi. These findings suggest that a low expression of iNOS and a decrease in the CD4+ T cells in OP may represent possible mechanisms that permit the local fungal multiplication and maintenance of active oral lesions.

Failure of both azithromycin and antimony to treat cutaneous leishmaniasis in Manaus, AM, Brazil

A non-randomized controlled clinical trial was carried outin order to evaluate both azithromycin and antimony efficacy in cutaneous leishmaniasis in Manaus, AM, Brazil. Forty nine patients from both genders, aged 14 to 70, with cutaneous ulcers for less than three months and a positive imprint for Leishmania spp. amastigotes were recruited into two groups. Group I (26 patients) received a daily-single oral dose of 500 mg of azithromycin for 20 days and Group II (23 patients) received a daily-single intramuscular dose of 20 mg/kg of meglumine antimony, also for 20 days. Azithromycin cured three of 24 (12.5%) patients on days 60, 90 and 120 respectively whereas therapeutic failure was considered in 21 of 24 (87.5%) cases. In group II, antimony cured eight of 19 (42.1%) cases as follows: three on day 30, one each on day 60 and day 90, and three on day 120. Therapeutic failure occurred in 11 of 19 (57.9%) individuals. The efficacy of antimony for leishmaniasis was better than azithromycin but analysis for the intention-to-treat response rate did not show statistical difference between them. Although azithromycin was better tolerated, it showed a very low efficacy to treat cutaneous leishmaniasis in Manaus.

Carnegie Institution of Washington publication.

no.248,v.1 (1919)

Carnegie Institution of Washington publication.

no.248,v.2 (1920)

Carnegie Institution of Washington publication.

no.248,v.3 (1922)