Conservation of threatened habitat types under future climate change – Lessons from plant-distribution models and current extinction trends in southern Germany

A higher risk of future range losses as a result of climate change is expected to be one of the main drivers of extinction trends in vascular plants occurring in habitat types of high conservation value. Nevertheless, the impact of the climate changes of the last 60 years on the current distribution and extinction patterns of plants is still largely unclear. We applied species distribution models to study the impact of environmental variables (climate, soil conditions, land cover, topography), on the current distribution of 18 vascular plant species characteristic of three threatened habitat types in southern Germany: (i) xero-thermophilous vegetation, (ii) mesophilous mountain grasslands (mountain hay meadows and matgrass communities), and (iii) wetland habitats (bogs, fens, and wet meadows). Climate and soil variables were the most important variables affecting plant distributions at a spatial level of 10 × 10 km. Extinction trends in our study area revealed that plant species which occur in wetland habitats faced higher extinction risks than those in xero-thermophilous vegetation, with the risk for species in mesophilous mountain grasslands being intermediary. For three plant species characteristic either of mesophilous mountain grasslands or wetland habitats we showed exemplarily that extinctions from 1950 to the present day have occurred at the edge of the species’ current climatic niche, indicating that climate change has likely been the main driver of extinction. This is largely consistent with current extinction trends reported in other studies. Our study indicates that the analysis of past extinctions is an appropriate means to assess the impact of climate change on species and that vulnerability to climate change is both species- and habitat-specific.

Micas in experimentally shocked gneiss

Biotites and muscovites from a gneiss have been experimentally shocked between 18 and 70 GPa using powder-propellant guns at NASA Johnson Space Center and at the California Institute of Technology. This study shows that shock in biotite and muscovite can produce homogeneous and devolatilized glasses within microseconds. Shock-deformed micas display fracturing, kinking, and complex extinction patterns over the entire pressure range investigated. However, these deformation features are not a sensitive pressure indicator. Localized melting of micas begins at 33 GPa and goes to completion at 70 GPa. Melted biotite and muscovite are optically opaque, but show extensive microvesiculation and flow when observed with the SEM. Electron diffraction confirms that biotite and muscovite have transformed to a glass. The distribution of vesicles in shock-vitrified mica shows escape of volatiles within the short duration of the shock experiment. Experimentally shocked biotite and muscovite undergo congruent melting. Compositions of the glasses are similar to the unshocked micas except for volatiles (H2O loss and K loss). These unusual glasses derived from mica may be quenched by rapid cooling conditions during the shock experiment. Based on these results, the extremely low H2O content of tektites may be reconciled with a terrestrial origin by impact. Release of volatiles in shock-melted micas affects the melting behavior of coexisting dry silicates during the short duration of the shock experiment. Transportation and escape of volatiles released from shock-melted micas may provide plausible mechanisms for the origin of protoatmospheres on terrestrial planets, hydrothermal activity on phyllosilicate-rich meteorite parent bodies, and fluid entrapment in meteorites.

Rhythmic Growth-Induced Ring-Banded Spherulites with Radial Periodic Variation of Thicknesses Grown from Poly(epsilon-caprolactone) Solution with Constant Concentration

Birefringent ring-banded spherulites with radial periodic variation of thicknesses were grown from poly(epsilon-caprolactone) (PCL) solutions under conditions for which the Solution concentration was held constant during the whole development of the morphology. The as-grown ring-banded spherulites were investigated by optical (OM) and atomic force (AFM) microscopies, by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) of samples sectioned parallel to the plane of film, and also by electron diffraction (ED) and grazing incidence X-ray diffraction (GIXD) techniques.

Calcareous dinocysts and grain size distribution along profile Stevns-Klint

The distribution patterns of calcareous dinoflagellate cysts were studied in the classic Cretaceous Tertiary (K-T) boundary section of Stevns Klint, Denmark, focusing mainly on the response of the cyst association to an abrupt environmental catastrophe. A major part of the Fish Clay, which covers the K-T boundary at its base and is exposed in the investigated section, contains fallout produced by an asteroid impact. Calcareous dinoflagenate cysts are the best preserved remains of carbonate-producing phytoplankton in this layer. The potential of this group of microfossils for the analysis of survival strategies and extinction patterns has been underestimated. The cyst species of the investigated section can be grouped into four assemblages that represent victims, survivors, opportunists, and specially adapted forms. The victims (Pithonelloideae) were an extremely successful group throughout the Upper Cretaceous, but were restricted to the narrow outer shelf. This restriction minimized their spatial distribution, which generally should be large to facilitate escape from unfavorable conditions. Spatial restriction optimized the population decrease by mass mortality, disabling a successful recovery. In contrast, the survivors that became the dominating group in the Danian had a wide spatial range from the shelf environment to the oceanic realm. A unique calcareous dinocyst assemblage in the Fish Clay shows that even under the stressed conditions immediately following the impact event, some species flourished due to special adaptation or high ecological tolerance. The ability of these dinoflagellate species to form calcareous resting cysts in combination with their generally wide spatial distribution in a variety of environments appears to be the main reason for a low extinction rate at the K-T boundary as opposed to the high extinction rate of other phytoplankton groups, such as the coccolithophorids.

Late Paleocene to Eocene stable isotope record od ODP Site 143-865

An expanded and largely complete upper Paleocene to upper Eocene section was recovered from the pelagic cap overlying Allison Guyot, Mid-Pacific Mountains at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 865 (18°26'N, 179°33'W; paleodepth 1300-1500 m). Reconstructions show that the site was within a few degrees of the equator during the Paleogene. Because no other Paleogene sections have been recovered in the Pacific Ocean at such a low latitude, Site 865 provides a unique record of equatorial Pacific paleoceanography. Detailed stable isotopic investigations were conducted on three planktonic foraminiferal taxa (species of Acarinina, Morozovella, and Subbotina). We studied benthic foraminiferal isotopes at much lower resolution on species of Cibicidoides and Lenticulina, Nuttallides truempyi and Gavelinella beccariiformis, because of their exceptional rarity. The d18O and d13C stratigraphies from Site 865 are generally similar to those derived from other Paleocene and Eocene sections. The planktonic foraminiferal records at Site 865, however, include significantly less short-term, single-sample variability than those from higher-latitude sites, indicating that this tropical, oligotrophic location had a comparatively stable water column structure with a deep mixed layer and less seasonal variability. Low-amplitude (0.1-0.8 per mil) oscillations on timescales of 250,000 to 300,000 years correlate between the d13C records of all planktonic taxa and may represent fluctuations in the mixing intensity of surface waters. Peak sea surface temperatures of 24°-25°C occurred in the earliest Eocene, followed by a rapid cooling of 3-6°C in the late early Eocene. Temperatures remained cool and stable through the middle Eocene. In the late Eocene, surface water temperatures decreased further. Vertical temperature gradients decreased dramatically in the late Paleocene and were relatively constant through much of the Eocene but increased markedly in the late Eocene. Intermediate waters warmed through the late Paleocene, reaching a maximum temperature of 10°C in the early Eocene. Cooling in the middle and late Eocene paralleled that of surface waters, with latest Eocene temperatures below 5°C. Extinction patterns of benthic foraminifera in the latest Paleocene were similar to those observed at other Pacific sites and were coeval with a short-term, very rapid negative excursion in d13C values in planktonic and benthic taxa as at other sites. During this excursion, benthic foraminiferal d18O values decreased markedly, indicating warming of 4 to 6°C for tropical intermediate waters, while planktonic taxa show slight warming (1°C) followed by 2°C of cooling. Convergence of d18O values of planktonic and benthic foraminifera suggests that thermal gradients in the water column in this tropical location collapsed during the excursion. These data are consistent with the hypothesis that equatorial Pacific surface waters were a potential source of warm, higher salinity waters which filled portions of the deep ocean in the latest Paleocene. Oxygen isotopic data indicate that equator to high southern latitude sea surface thermal gradients decreased to as little as 4°C at the peak of the excursion, suggesting some fundamental change in global heat transport.

Patterns of faunal change at an upper Cambrian trilobite extinction event, Nolichucky Formation, Tennessee and Virginia

During the Upper Cambrian there were three mass extinctions, each of which eliminated at least half of the trilobite families living in North American shelf seas. The Nolichucky Formation preserves the record of one of these extinction events at the base of the Steptoean Stage. Sixty-six trilobite collections were made from five sections In Tennessee and Virginia. The lower Steptoean faunas are assigned to one low diversity, Aphelaspis-dominated biofacies, which can be recognized in several other parts of North America. In Tennessee, the underlying upper Marjuman strata contain two higher diversity biofacies, the Coosella-Glaphyraspis Biofacies and the Tricrepicephalus-Norwoodiid Biofacies. At least four different biofacies are present in other parts of North America: the Crepicephalus -Lonchocephalus Biofacies, the Kingstonia Biofacies, the Cedaria Biofacies, and the Uncaspis Biofacies. A new, species-based zonation for the Nolichucky Formation imcludes five zones, three of which are new. These zones are the Crepicephalus Zone, the Coosella perplexa Zone, the Aphelaspis buttsi Zone, the A. walcotti Zone and the A. tarda Zone. The Nolichucky Formation was deposited within a shallow shelf basin and consists largely of subtidal shales with stormgenerated carbonate interbeds. A relative deepening is recorded In the Nolichucky Formation near the extinction, and is indicated In some sections by the appearance of shale-rich, distal storm deposits above a carbonate-rich, more proximal storm deposit sequence. A comparable deepening-upward sequence occurs near the extinction in the Great Basin of southwestern United States and in central Texas, and this suggests a possible eustatic control. In other parts of North America, the extinction IS recorded In a variety of environmental settings that range from near-shore to slope. In shelf environments, there is a marked decrease in diversity, and a sharp reduction in biofacies differentiation. Although extinctions do take place in slope environments, there IS no net reduction in diversity because of the immigration of several new taxa.

Pleistocene climate fluctuations influence phylogeographical patterns in Melomys cervinipes across the mesic forests of eastern Australia

Aim Our aim was to clarify the lineage-level relationships for Melomys cervinipes and its close relatives and investigate whether the patterns of divergence observed for these wet-forest-restricted mammals may be associated with recognized biogeographical barriers. Location Mesic closed forest along the east coast of Australia, from north Queensland to mid-eastern New South Wales. Methods To enable rigorous phylogenetic reconstruction, divergence-date estimation and phylogeographical inference, we analysed DNA sequence and microsatellite data from 307 specimens across the complete distribution of M. cervinipes (45 localities). Results Three divergent genetic lineages were found within M. cervinipes, corresponding to geographically delineated northern, central and southern clades. Additionally, a fourth lineage, comprising M. rubicola and M. capensis, was identified and was most closely related to the northern M. cervinipes lineage. Secondary contact of the northern and central lineages was identified at one locality to the north of the Burdekin Gap. Main conclusions Contemporary processes of repeated habitat fragmentation and contraction, local extinction events and subsequent re-expansion across both small and large areas, coupled with the historical influence of the Brisbane Valley Barrier, the St Lawrence Gap and the Burdekin Gap, have contributed to the present phylogeographical structure within M. cervinipes. Our study highlights the need to sample close to the periphery of putative biogeographical barriers or risk missing vital phylogeographical information that may significantly alter the interpretation of biogeographical hypotheses.

Extinction risk analysis of exploited green turtle stocks in the Indo-Pacific

In parts of the Indo-Pacific, large-scale exploitation of the green turtle Chelonia mydas continues to pose a serious threat to the persistence of this species; yet very few studies have assessed the pattern and extent of the impact of such harvests. We used demographic and genetic data in an age-based model to investigate the viability of an exploited green turtle stock from Aru, south-east Indonesia. We found that populations are decreasing under current exploitation pressures. The effects of increasingly severe exploitation activities at foraging and nesting habitat varied depending on the migratory patterns of the stock. Our model predicted a rapid decline of the Aru stock in Indonesia under local exploitation pressure and a shift in the genetic composition of the stock. We used the model to investigate the influence of different types of conservation actions on the persistence of the Aru stock. The results show that local management actions such as nest protection and reducing harvests of adult nesting and foraging turtles can have considerable conservation outcomes and result in the long-term persistence of genetically distinct management units. © 2010 The Authors. Animal Conservation © 2010 The Zoological Society of London.

Temporal genetic structure patterns in tropical maize populations under reciprocal recurrent selection.

In order to investigate the effect of long term recurrent selection on the pattern of gene diversity, thirty randomly-selected individuals from the progenitors (p) and four selection cycles (C0, C3, C6 and C11) were sampled for DNA analysis from the tropical maize (Zea mays L.) breeding populations, Atherton 1 (AT1) and Atherton 2 (AT2). Fifteen polymorphic Simple Sequence Repeat markers amplified a total of 284 and 257 alleles in AT1 and AT2 populations, respectively. Reductions in the number of alleles were observed at advanced selection cycles. About 11 and 12% of the alleles in AT1 and AT2 populations respectively, were near to fixation. However, a higher number of alleles (37% in AT1 and 33% in AT2) were close to extinction. Fisher's exact test and analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed significant population differentiations. Gene diversity estimates and AMOVA revealed increased genetic differentiations at the expense of loss of heterozygosity. Population differentiations were mainly due to fixation of complementary alleles at a locus in the two breeding populations. The estimates of effective population at an advanced selection cycle were close to the population size predicted by the breeding method.

Manipulating Interaction Strengths and the Consequences for Trivariate Patterns in a Marine Food Web

We are experiencing a global extinction crisis as a result of climate change and human-induced alteration of natural habitats, with large predators at high trophic levels in food webs being particularly vulnerable. Unfortunately, there is a scarcity of food web data that can be used to assess how species extinctions alter the structure and stability of temporally and spatially replicated networks. We established a series of large experimental mesocosms in a shallow subtidal benthic marine system and constructed food webs for each replicate. After 6 months of community assembly, we removed large predators from the core communities of 20 experimental food webs, based on the strength of their trophic interactions, and monitored the changes in the networks' structure and stability over an 8-month period. Our analyses revealed the importance of allometric relationships and size-structuring in natural communities as a means of preserving food web structure and sustainability, despite significant changes in the diversity, stability and productivity of the system.

Diversity, extinction, and threat status in Lagomorphs

A quarter of all lagomorphs (pikas, rabbits, hares and jackrabbits) are threatened with extinction, including several genera that contain only one species. The number of species in a genus correlates with extinction risk in lagomorphs, but not in other mammal groups, and this is concerning because the non-random extinction of small clades disproportionately threatens genetic diversity and phylogenetic history. Here, we use phylogenetic analyses to explore the properties of the lagomorph phylogeny and test if variation in evolution, biogeography and ecology between taxa explains current patterns of diversity and extinction risk. Threat status was not related to body size (and, by inference, its biological correlates), and there was no phylogenetic signal in extinction risk. We show that the lagomorph phylogeny has a similar clade-size distribution to other mammals, and found that genus size was unrelated to present climate, topography, or geographic range size. Extinction risk was greater in areas of higher human population density and negatively correlated with anthropogenically modified habitat. Consistent with this, habitat generalists were less likely to be threatened. Our models did not predict threat status accurately for taxa that experience region-specific threats. We suggest that pressure from human populations is so severe and widespread that it overrides ecological, biological, and geographic variation in extant lagomorphs.

Detecting patterns of species diversification in the presence of both rate shifts and mass extinctions.

BACKGROUND: Recent methodological advances allow better examination of speciation and extinction processes and patterns. A major open question is the origin of large discrepancies in species number between groups of the same age. Existing frameworks to model this diversity either focus on changes between lineages, neglecting global effects such as mass extinctions, or focus on changes over time which would affect all lineages. Yet it seems probable that both lineages differences and mass extinctions affect the same groups. RESULTS: Here we used simulations to test the performance of two widely used methods under complex scenarios of diversification. We report good performances, although with a tendency to over-predict events with increasing complexity of the scenario. CONCLUSION: Overall, we find that lineage shifts are better detected than mass extinctions. This work has significance to assess the methods currently used to estimate changes in diversification using phylogenetic trees. Our results also point toward the need to develop new models of diversification to expand our capabilities to analyse realistic and complex evolutionary scenarios.

Forecasting extinction risk of ectotherms under climate warming: an evolutionary perspective

1. It has been postulated that climate warming may pose the greatest threat species in the tropics, where ectotherms have evolved more thermal specialist physiologies. Although species could rapidly respond to environmental change through adaptation, little is known about the potential for thermal adaptation, especially in tropical species. 2. In the light of the limited empirical evidence available and predictions from mutation-selection theory, we might expect tropical ectotherms to have limited genetic variance to enable adaptation. However, as a consequence of thermodynamic constraints, we might expect this disadvantage to be at least partially offset by a fitness advantage, that is, the ‘hotter-is-better’ hypothesis. 3. Using an established quantitative genetics model and metabolic scaling relationships, we integrate the consequences of the opposing forces of thermal specialization and thermodynamic constraints on adaptive potential by evaluating extinction risk under climate warming. We conclude that the potential advantage of a higher maximal development rate can in theory more than offset the potential disadvantage of lower genetic variance associated with a thermal specialist strategy. 4. Quantitative estimates of extinction risk are fundamentally very sensitive to estimates of generation time and genetic variance. However, our qualitative conclusion that the relative risk of extinction is likely to be lower for tropical species than for temperate species is robust to assumptions regarding the effects of effective population size, mutation rate and birth rate per capita. 5. With a view to improving ecological forecasts, we use this modelling framework to review the sensitivity of our predictions to the model’s underpinning theoretical assumptions and the empirical basis of macroecological patterns that suggest thermal specialization and fitness increase towards the tropics. We conclude by suggesting priority areas for further empirical research.

Intolerance of uncertainty predicts fear extinction in amygdala-ventromedial prefrontal cortical circuitry

Background: Coordination of activity between the amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) is important for fear-extinction learning. Aberrant recruitment of this circuitry is associated with anxiety disorders. Here, we sought to determine if individual differences in future threat uncertainty sensitivity, a potential risk factor for anxiety disorders, underly compromised recruitment of fear extinction circuitry. Twenty-two healthy subjects completed a cued fear conditioning task with acquisition and extinction phases. During the task, pupil dilation, skin conductance response, and functional magnetic resonance imaging were acquired. We assessed the temporality of fear extinction learning by splitting the extinction phase into early and late extinction. Threat uncertainty sensitivity was measured using self-reported intolerance of uncertainty (IU). Results: During early extinction learning, we found low IU scores to be associated with larger skin conductance responses and right amygdala activity to learned threat vs. safety cues, whereas high IU scores were associated with no skin conductance discrimination and greater activity within the right amygdala to previously learned safety cues. In late extinction learning, low IU scores were associated with successful inhibition of previously learned threat, reflected in comparable skin conductance response and right amgydala activity to learned threat vs. safety cues, whilst high IU scores were associated with continued fear expression to learned threat, indexed by larger skin conductance and amygdala activity to threat vs. safety cues. In addition, high IU scores were associated with greater vmPFC activity to threat vs. safety cues in late extinction. Similar patterns of IU and extinction learning were found for pupil dilation. The results were specific for IU and did not generalize to self-reported trait anxiety. Conclusions: Overall, the neural and psychophysiological patterns observed here suggest high IU individuals to disproportionately generalize threat during times of uncertainty, which subsequently compromises fear extinction learning. More broadly, these findings highlight the potential of intolerance of uncertainty-based mechanisms to help understand pathological fear in anxiety disorders and inform potential treatment targets.