A Dynamic Model of Hand-and-Foot Syndrome in Patients Receiving Capecitabine

For the purpose of developing a longitudinal model to predict hand-and-foot syndrome (HFS) dynamics in patients receiving capecitabine, data from two large phase III studies were used. Of 595 patients in the capecitabine arms, 400 patients were randomly selected to build the model, and the other 195 were assigned for model validation. A score for risk of developing HFS was modeled using the proportional odds model, a sigmoidal maximum effect model driven by capecitabine accumulation as estimated through a kinetic-pharmacodynamic model and a Markov process. The lower the calculated creatinine clearance value at inclusion, the higher was the risk of HFS. Model validation was performed by visual and statistical predictive checks. The predictive dynamic model of HFS in patients receiving capecitabine allows the prediction of toxicity risk based on cumulative capecitabine dose and previous HFS grade. This dose-toxicity model will be useful in developing Bayesian individual treatment adaptations and may be of use in the clinic.

A dynamic model with on-line identification for rotary sugar drying processes

A dynamic modelling methodology, which combines on-line variable estimation and parameter identification with physical laws to form an adaptive model for rotary sugar drying processes, is developed in this paper. In contrast to the conventional rate-based models using empirical transfer coefficients, the heat and mass transfer rates are estimated by using on-line measurements in the new model. Furthermore, a set of improved sectional solid transport equations with localized parameters is developed in this work to reidentified on-line using measurement data, the model is able to closely track the dynamic behaviour of rotary drying processes within a broad range of operational conditions. This adaptive model is validated against experimental data obtained from a pilot-scale rotary sugar dryer. The proposed modelling methodology can be easily incorporated into nonlinear model based control schemes to form a unified modelling and control framework.place the global correlation for the computation of solid retention time. Since a number of key model variables and parameters are identified on-line using measurement data, the model is able to closely track the dynamic behaviour of rotary drying processes within a broad range of operational conditions. This adaptive model is validated against experimental data obtained from a pilot-scale rotary sugar dryer. The proposed modelling methodology can be easily incorporated into nonlinear model based control schemes to form a unified modelling and control framework.

A generalised dynamic model for char particle gasification with structure evolution and peripheral fragmentation

A generalised model for the prediction of single char particle gasification dynamics, accounting for multi-component mass transfer with chemical reaction, heat transfer, as well as structure evolution and peripheral fragmentation is developed in this paper. Maxwell-Stefan analysis is uniquely applied to both micro and macropores within the framework of the dusty-gas model to account for the bidisperse nature of the char, which differs significantly from the conventional models that are based on a single pore type. The peripheral fragmentation and random-pore correlation incorporated into the model enable prediction of structure/reactivity relationships. The occurrence of chemical reaction within the boundary layer reported by Biggs and Agarwal (Chem. Eng. Sci. 52 (1997) 941) has been confirmed through an analysis of CO/CO2 product ratio obtained from model simulations. However, it is also quantitatively observed that the significance of boundary layer reaction reduces notably with the reduction of oxygen concentration in the flue gas, operational pressure and film thickness. Computations have also shown that in the presence of diffusional gradients peripheral fragmentation occurs in the early stages on the surface, after which conversion quickens significantly due to small particle size. Results of the early commencement of peripheral fragmentation at relatively low overall conversion obtained from a large number of simulations agree well with experimental observations reported by Feng and Bhatia (Energy & Fuels 14 (2000) 297). Comprehensive analysis of simulation results is carried out based on well accepted physical principles to rationalise model prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. AH rights reserved.

Spectral solution for the air stripping pollutants removal dynamic model with non linear steady state conditions

This work deals with the numerical simulation of air stripping process for the pre-treatment of groundwater used in human consumption. The model established in steady state presents an exponential solution that is used, together with the Tau Method, to get a spectral approach of the solution of the system of partial differential equations associated to the model in transient state.

Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging

We forecast quarterly US inflation based on the generalized Phillips curve using econometric methods which incorporate dynamic model averaging. These methods not only allow for coe¢ cients to change over time, but also allow for the entire forecasting model to change over time. We nd that dynamic model averaging leads to substantial forecasting improvements over simple benchmark regressions and more sophisticated approaches such as those using time varying coe¢ cient models. We also provide evidence on which sets of predictors are relevant for forecasting in each period.

Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging

We forecast quarterly US inflation based on the generalized Phillips curve using econometric methods which incorporate dynamic model averaging. These methods not only allow for coe¢ cients to change over time, but also allow for the entire forecasting model to change over time. We nd that dynamic model averaging leads to substantial forecasting improvements over simple benchmark regressions and more sophisticated approaches such as those using time varying coe¢ cient models. We also provide evidence on which sets of predictors are relevant for forecasting in each period.

A dynamic model for stem cell homeostasis and patterning in Arabidopsis meristems.

Plants maintain stem cells in their meristems as a source for new undifferentiated cells throughout their life. Meristems are small groups of cells that provide the microenvironment that allows stem cells to prosper. Homeostasis of a stem cell domain within a growing meristem is achieved by signalling between stem cells and surrounding cells. We have here simulated the origin and maintenance of a defined stem cell domain at the tip of Arabidopsis shoot meristems, based on the assumption that meristems are self-organizing systems. The model comprises two coupled feedback regulated genetic systems that control stem cell behaviour. Using a minimal set of spatial parameters, the mathematical model allows to predict the generation, shape and size of the stem cell domain, and the underlying organizing centre. We use the model to explore the parameter space that allows stem cell maintenance, and to simulate the consequences of mutations, gene misexpression and cell ablations.

A dynamic model of keratinocyte stem cell renewal and differentiation: role of the p21WAF1/Cip1 and Notch1 signaling pathways.

We present here a dynamic model of functional equilibrium between keratinocyte stem cells, transit amplifying populations and cells that are reversibly versus irreversibly committed to differentiation. According to this model, the size of keratinocyte stem cell populations can be controlled at multiple levels, including relative late steps in the sequence of events leading to terminal differentiation and by the influences of a heterogeneous extra-cellular environment. We discuss how work in our laboratory, on the interconnection between the cyclin/CDK inhibitor p21WAF1/Cip1 and the Notch1 signaling pathways, provides strong support to this dynamic model of stem cell versus committed and/or differentiated keratinocyte populations.

Towards a dynamic model of e-commerce: environmental, technological and organisational drivers of B2C along time

Despite the important benefits for firms of commercial initiatives on the Internet, e-commerce is still an emerging distribution channel, even in developed countries. Thus, more needs to be known about the mechanisms affecting its development. A large number of works have studied firms¿ e-commerce adoption from technological, intraorganizational, institutional, or other specific perspectives, but there is a need for adequately tested integrative frameworks. Hence, this work proposes and tests a model of firms¿ business-to-consumer (called B2C) e-commerce adoption that is founded on a holistic vision of the phenomenon. With this integrative approach, the authors analyze the joint influence of environmental, technological, and organizational factors; moreover, they evaluate this effect over time. Using various representative Spanish data sets covering the period 1996-2005, the findings demonstrate the suitability of the holistic framework. Likewise, some lessons are learned from the analysis of the key building blocks. In particular, the current study provides evidence for the debate about the effect of competitive pressure, since the findings show that competitive pressure disincentivizes e-commerce adoption in the long term. The results also show that the development or enrichment of the consumers¿ consumption patterns, the technological readiness of the market forces, the firm¿s global scope, and its competences in innovation continuously favor e-commerce adoption.

Dynamic Model of a Small Once-Through Boiler

In this study, a model for the unsteady dynamic behaviour of a once-through counter flow boiler that uses an organic working fluid is presented. The boiler is a compact waste-heat boiler without a furnace and it has a preheater, a vaporiser and a superheater. The relative lengths of the boiler parts vary with the operating conditions since they are all parts of a single tube. The present research is a part of a study on the unsteady dynamics of an organic Rankine cycle power plant and it will be a part of a dynamic process model. The boiler model is presented using a selected example case that uses toluene as the process fluid and flue gas from natural gas combustion as the heat source. The dynamic behaviour of the boiler means transition from the steady initial state towards another steady state that corresponds to the changed process conditions. The solution method chosen was to find such a pressure of the process fluid that the mass of the process fluid in the boiler equals the mass calculated using the mass flows into and out of the boiler during a time step, using the finite difference method. A special method of fast calculation of the thermal properties has been used, because most of the calculation time is spent in calculating the fluid properties. The boiler was divided into elements. The values of the thermodynamic properties and mass flows were calculated in the nodes that connect the elements. Dynamic behaviour was limited to the process fluid and tube wall, and the heat source was regarded as to be steady. The elements that connect the preheater to thevaporiser and the vaporiser to the superheater were treated in a special way that takes into account a flexible change from one part to the other. The model consists of the calculation of the steady state initial distribution of the variables in the nodes, and the calculation of these nodal values in a dynamic state. The initial state of the boiler was received from a steady process model that isnot a part of the boiler model. The known boundary values that may vary during the dynamic calculation were the inlet temperature and mass flow rates of both the heat source and the process fluid. A brief examination of the oscillation around a steady state, the so-called Ledinegg instability, was done. This examination showed that the pressure drop in the boiler is a third degree polynomial of the mass flow rate, and the stability criterion is a second degree polynomial of the enthalpy change in the preheater. The numerical examination showed that oscillations did not exist in the example case. The dynamic boiler model was analysed for linear and step changes of the entering fluid temperatures and flow rates.The problem for verifying the correctness of the achieved results was that there was no possibility o compare them with measurements. This is why the only way was to determine whether the obtained results were intuitively reasonable and the results changed logically when the boundary conditions were changed. The numerical stability was checked in a test run in which there was no change in input values. The differences compared with the initial values were so small that the effects of numerical oscillations were negligible. The heat source side tests showed that the model gives results that are logical in the directions of the changes, and the order of magnitude of the timescale of changes is also as expected. The results of the tests on the process fluid side showed that the model gives reasonable results both on the temperature changes that cause small alterations in the process state and on mass flow rate changes causing very great alterations. The test runs showed that the dynamic model has no problems in calculating cases in which temperature of the entering heat source suddenly goes below that of the tube wall or the process fluid.

Dynamic model of the left ventricle for use in simulation of myocardial perfusion SPECT and gated SPECT

Simulation is a useful tool in cardiac SPECT to assess quantification algorithms. However, simple equation-based models are limited in their ability to simulate realistic heart motion and perfusion. We present a numerical dynamic model of the left ventricle, which allows us to simulate normal and anomalous cardiac cycles, as well as perfusion defects. Bicubic splines were fitted to a number of control points to represent endocardial and epicardial surfaces of the left ventricle. A transformation from each point on the surface to a template of activity was made to represent the myocardial perfusion. Geometry-based and patient-based simulations were performed to illustrate this model. Geometry-based simulations modeled ~1! a normal patient, ~2! a well-perfused patient with abnormal regional function, ~3! an ischaemic patient with abnormal regional function, and ~4! a patient study including tracer kinetics. Patient-based simulation consisted of a left ventricle including a realistic shape and motion obtained from a magnetic resonance study. We conclude that this model has the potential to study the influence of several physical parameters and the left ventricle contraction in myocardial perfusion SPECT and gated-SPECT studies.

Cenozoic evolution of eastern Iberia: structural data and dynamic model.

Iberia underwent intraplate deformation during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. In eastem Ibena, compression took place during the Palaeogene and early Miocene, giving rise to the Iberian Chain, and extension started during the early Miocene in the coastal areas and the Valencia trough; during early Miocene compression continued in the western Iberian Chain whereas extension had started in the eastern Iberian Chain. From the kinematic data obtained from the major compressional and extensional structures formed dunng the Cenozoic, a simple dynamic model using Bott's (1959) formula is presented. The results show that both extension and compression may have been produced assuming a main horizontal stress-axis approximately N-S, in a similar direction that the convergence between Europe, Ibena and Afnca dunng the Cenozoic.

Validation of plant dynamic model by online and laboratory measurements – a tool to predict online COD loads out of production of mechanical printing papers

COD discharges out of processes have increased in line with elevating brightness demands for mechanical pulp and papers. The share of lignin-like substances in COD discharges is on average 75%. In this thesis, a plant dynamic model was created and validated as a means to predict COD loading and discharges out of a mill. The assays were carried out in one paper mill integrate producing mechanical printing papers. The objective in the modeling of plant dynamics was to predict day averages of COD load and discharges out of mills. This means that online data, like 1) the level of large storage towers of pulp and white water 2) pulp dosages, 3) production rates and 4) internal white water flows and discharges were used to create transients into the balances of solids and white water, referred to as “plant dynamics”. A conversion coefficient was verified between TOC and COD. The conversion coefficient was used for predicting the flows from TOC to COD to the waste water treatment plant. The COD load was modeled with similar uncertainty as in reference TOC sampling. The water balance of waste water treatment was validated by the reference concentration of COD. The difference of COD predictions against references was within the same deviation of TOC-predictions. The modeled yield losses and retention values of TOC in pulping and bleaching processes and the modeled fixing of colloidal TOC to solids between the pulping plant and the aeration basin in the waste water treatment plant were similar to references presented in literature. The valid water balances of the waste water treatment plant and the reduction model of lignin-like substances produced a valid prediction of COD discharges out of the mill. A 30% increase in the release of lignin-like substances in the form of production problems was observed in pulping and bleaching processes. The same increase was observed in COD discharges out of waste water treatment. In the prediction of annual COD discharge, it was noticed that the reduction of lignin has a wide deviation from year to year and from one mill to another. This made it difficult to compare the parameters of COD discharges validated in plant dynamic simulation with another mill producing mechanical printing papers. However, a trend of moving from unbleached towards high-brightness TMP in COD discharges was valid.

A multibody dynamic model of the cross-country ski-skating technique

The objective of this thesis is the development of a multibody dynamic model matching the observed movements of the lower limb of a skier performing the skating technique in cross-country style. During the construction of this model, the formulation of the equation of motion was made using the Euler - Lagrange approach with multipliers applied to a multibody system in three dimensions. The description of the lower limb of the skate skier and the ski was completed by employing three bodies, one representing the ski, and two representing the natural movements of the leg of the skier. The resultant system has 13 joint constraints due to the interconnection of the bodies, and four prescribed kinematic constraints to account for the movements of the leg, leaving the amount of degrees of freedom equal to one. The push-off force exerted by the skate skier was taken directly from measurements made on-site in the ski tunnel at the Vuokatti facilities (Finland) and was input into the model as a continuous function. Then, the resultant velocities and movement of the ski, center of mass of the skier, and variation of the skating angle were studied to understand the response of the model to the variation of important parameters of the skate technique. This allowed a comparison of the model results with the real movement of the skier. Further developments can be made to this model to better approximate the results to the real movement of the leg. One can achieve this by changing the constraints to include the behavior of the real leg joints and muscle actuation. As mentioned in the introduction of this thesis, a multibody dynamic model can be used to provide relevant information to ski designers and to obtain optimized results of the given variables, which athletes can use to improve their performance.