A bivariate return period based on copulas for hydrologic dam design: accounting for reservoir routing in risk estimation

A multivariate analysis on flood variables is needed to design some hydraulic structures like dams, as the complexity of the routing process in a reservoir requires a representation of the full hydrograph. In this work, a bivariate copula model was used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume, in order to know the probability of occurrence of a given inflow hydrograph. However, the risk of dam overtopping is given by the maximum water elevation reached during the routing process, which depends on the hydrograph variables, the reservoir volume and the spillway crest length. Consequently, an additional bivariate return period, the so-called routed return period, was defined in terms of risk of dam overtopping based on this maximum water elevation obtained after routing the inflow hydrographs. The theoretical return periods, which give the probability of occurrence of a hydrograph prior to accounting for the reservoir routing, were compared with the routed return period, as in both cases hydrographs with the same probability will draw a curve in the peak-volume space. The procedure was applied to the case study of the Santillana reservoir in Spain. Different reservoir volumes and spillway lengths were considered to investigate the influence of the dam and reservoir characteristics on the results. The methodology improves the estimation of the Design Flood Hydrograph and can be applied to assess the risk of dam overtopping

Gravity dam design.

Cover title.

Flood frequency analysis by a bivariate model based on copulas

La adecuada estimación de avenidas de diseño asociadas a altos periodos de retorno es necesaria para el diseño y gestión de estructuras hidráulicas como presas. En la práctica, la estimación de estos cuantiles se realiza normalmente a través de análisis de frecuencia univariados, basados en su mayoría en el estudio de caudales punta. Sin embargo, la naturaleza de las avenidas es multivariada, siendo esencial tener en cuenta características representativas de las avenidas, tales como caudal punta, volumen y duración del hidrograma, con el fin de llevar a cabo un análisis apropiado; especialmente cuando el caudal de entrada se transforma en un caudal de salida diferente durante el proceso de laminación en un embalse o llanura de inundación. Los análisis de frecuencia de avenidas multivariados han sido tradicionalmente llevados a cabo mediante el uso de distribuciones bivariadas estándar con el fin de modelar variables correlacionadas. Sin embargo, su uso conlleva limitaciones como la necesidad de usar el mismo tipo de distribuciones marginales para todas las variables y la existencia de una relación de dependencia lineal entre ellas. Recientemente, el uso de cópulas se ha extendido en hidrología debido a sus beneficios en relación al contexto multivariado, permitiendo superar los inconvenientes de las técnicas tradicionales. Una copula es una función que representa la estructura de dependencia de las variables de estudio, y permite obtener la distribución de frecuencia multivariada de dichas variables mediante sus distribuciones marginales, sin importar el tipo de distribución marginal utilizada. La estimación de periodos de retorno multivariados, y por lo tanto, de cuantiles multivariados, también se facilita debido a la manera en la que las cópulas están formuladas. La presente tesis doctoral busca proporcionar metodologías que mejoren las técnicas tradicionales usadas por profesionales para estimar cuantiles de avenida más adecuados para el diseño y la gestión de presas, así como para la evaluación del riesgo de avenida, mediante análisis de frecuencia de avenidas bivariados basados en cópulas. Las variables consideradas para ello son el caudal punta y el volumen del hidrograma. Con el objetivo de llevar a cabo un estudio completo, la presente investigación abarca: (i) el análisis de frecuencia de avenidas local bivariado centrado en examinar y comparar los periodos de retorno teóricos basados en la probabilidad natural de ocurrencia de una avenida, con el periodo de retorno asociado al riesgo de sobrevertido de la presa bajo análisis, con el fin de proporcionar cuantiles en una estación de aforo determinada; (ii) la extensión del enfoque local al regional, proporcionando un procedimiento completo para llevar a cabo un análisis de frecuencia de avenidas regional bivariado para proporcionar cuantiles en estaciones sin aforar o para mejorar la estimación de dichos cuantiles en estaciones aforadas; (iii) el uso de cópulas para investigar tendencias bivariadas en avenidas debido al aumento de los niveles de urbanización en una cuenca; y (iv) la extensión de series de avenida observadas mediante la combinación de los beneficios de un modelo basado en cópulas y de un modelo hidrometeorológico. Accurate design flood estimates associated with high return periods are necessary to design and manage hydraulic structures such as dams. In practice, the estimate of such quantiles is usually done via univariate flood frequency analyses, mostly based on the study of peak flows. Nevertheless, the nature of floods is multivariate, being essential to consider representative flood characteristics, such as flood peak, hydrograph volume and hydrograph duration to carry out an appropriate analysis; especially when the inflow peak is transformed into a different outflow peak during the routing process in a reservoir or floodplain. Multivariate flood frequency analyses have been traditionally performed by using standard bivariate distributions to model correlated variables, yet they entail some shortcomings such as the need of using the same kind of marginal distribution for all variables and the assumption of a linear dependence relation between them. Recently, the use of copulas has been extended in hydrology because of their benefits regarding dealing with the multivariate context, as they overcome the drawbacks of the traditional approach. A copula is a function that represents the dependence structure of the studied variables, and allows obtaining the multivariate frequency distribution of them by using their marginal distributions, regardless of the kind of marginal distributions considered. The estimate of multivariate return periods, and therefore multivariate quantiles, is also facilitated by the way in which copulas are formulated. The present doctoral thesis seeks to provide methodologies that improve traditional techniques used by practitioners, in order to estimate more appropriate flood quantiles for dam design, dam management and flood risk assessment, through bivariate flood frequency analyses based on the copula approach. The flood variables considered for that goal are peak flow and hydrograph volume. In order to accomplish a complete study, the present research addresses: (i) a bivariate local flood frequency analysis focused on examining and comparing theoretical return periods based on the natural probability of occurrence of a flood, with the return period associated with the risk of dam overtopping, to estimate quantiles at a given gauged site; (ii) the extension of the local to the regional approach, supplying a complete procedure for performing a bivariate regional flood frequency analysis to either estimate quantiles at ungauged sites or improve at-site estimates at gauged sites; (iii) the use of copulas to investigate bivariate flood trends due to increasing urbanisation levels in a catchment; and (iv) the extension of observed flood series by combining the benefits of a copula-based model and a hydro-meteorological model.

Evaluación de la seguridad al deslizamiento de una presa de fábrica en un cimiento con una familia de discontinuidades y con un criterio de rotura con ley de fluencia no asociada

En España existen del orden de 1,300 grandes presas, de las cuales un 20% fueron construidas antes de los años 60. El hecho de que existan actualmente una gran cantidad de presas antiguas aún en operación, ha producido un creciente interés en reevaluar su seguridad empleando herramientas nuevas o modificadas que incorporan modelos de fallo teóricos más completos, conceptos geotécnicos más complejos y nuevas técnicas de evaluación de la seguridad. Una manera muy común de abordar el análisis de estabilidad de presas de gravedad es, por ejemplo, considerar el deslizamiento a través de la interfase presa-cimiento empleando el criterio de rotura lineal de Mohr-Coulomb, en donde la cohesión y el ángulo de rozamiento son los parámetros que definen la resistencia al corte de la superficie de contacto. Sin embargo la influencia de aspectos como la presencia de planos de debilidad en el macizo rocoso de cimentación; la influencia de otros criterios de rotura para la junta y para el macizo rocoso (ej. el criterio de rotura de Hoek-Brown); las deformaciones volumétricas que ocurren durante la deformación plástica en el fallo del macizo rocoso (i.e., influencia de la dilatancia) no son usualmente consideradas durante el diseño original de la presa. En este contexto, en la presente tesis doctoral se propone una metodología analítica para el análisis de la estabilidad al deslizamiento de presas de hormigón, considerando un mecanismo de fallo en la cimentación caracterizado por la presencia de una familia de discontinuidades. En particular, se considera la posibilidad de que exista una junta sub-horizontal, preexistente y persistente en el macizo rocoso de la cimentación, con una superficie potencial de fallo que se extiende a través del macizo rocoso. El coeficiente de seguridad es entonces estimado usando una combinación de las resistencias a lo largo de los planos de rotura, cuyas resistencias son evaluadas empleando los criterios de rotura no lineales de Barton y Choubey (1977) y Barton y Bandis (1990), a lo largo del plano de deslizamiento de la junta; y el criterio de rotura de Hoek y Brown (1980) en su versión generalizada (Hoek et al. 2002), a lo largo del macizo rocoso. La metodología propuesta también considera la influencia del comportamiento del macizo rocoso cuando este sigue una ley de flujo no asociada con ángulo de dilatancia constante (Hoek y Brown 1997). La nueva metodología analítica propuesta es usada para evaluar las condiciones de estabilidad empleando dos modelos: un modelo determinista y un modelo probabilista, cuyos resultados son el valor del coeficiente de seguridad y la probabilidad de fallo al deslizamiento, respectivamente. El modelo determinista, implementado en MATLAB, es validado usando soluciones numéricas calculadas mediante el método de las diferencias finitas, empleando el código FLAC 6.0. El modelo propuesto proporciona resultados que son bastante similares a aquellos calculados con FLAC; sin embargo, los costos computacionales de la formulación propuesta son significativamente menores, facilitando el análisis de sensibilidad de la influencia de los diferentes parámetros de entrada sobre la seguridad de la presa, de cuyos resultados se obtienen los parámetros que más peso tienen en la estabilidad al deslizamiento de la estructura, manifestándose además la influencia de la ley de flujo en la rotura del macizo rocoso. La probabilidad de fallo es obtenida empleando el método de fiabilidad de primer orden (First Order Reliability Method; FORM), y los resultados de FORM son posteriormente validados mediante simulaciones de Monte Carlo. Los resultados obtenidos mediante ambas metodologías demuestran que, para el caso no asociado, los valores de probabilidad de fallo se ajustan de manera satisfactoria a los obtenidos mediante las simulaciones de Monte Carlo. Los resultados del caso asociado no son tan buenos, ya que producen resultados con errores del 0.7% al 66%, en los que no obstante se obtiene una buena concordancia cuando los casos se encuentran en, o cerca de, la situación de equilibrio límite. La eficiencia computacional es la principal ventaja que ofrece el método FORM para el análisis de la estabilidad de presas de hormigón, a diferencia de las simulaciones de Monte Carlo (que requiere de al menos 4 horas por cada ejecución) FORM requiere tan solo de 1 a 3 minutos en cada ejecución. There are 1,300 large dams in Spain, 20% of which were built before 1960. The fact that there are still many old dams in operation has produced an interest of reevaluate their safety using new or updated tools that incorporate state-of-the-art failure modes, geotechnical concepts and new safety assessment techniques. For instance, for gravity dams one common design approach considers the sliding through the dam-foundation interface, using a simple linear Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion with constant friction angle and cohesion parameters. But the influence of aspects such as the persistence of joint sets in the rock mass below the dam foundation; of the influence of others failure criteria proposed for rock joint and rock masses (e.g. the Hoek-Brown criterion); or the volumetric strains that occur during plastic failure of rock masses (i.e., the influence of dilatancy) are often no considered during the original dam design. In this context, an analytical methodology is proposed herein to assess the sliding stability of concrete dams, considering an extended failure mechanism in its rock foundation, which is characterized by the presence of an inclined, and impersistent joint set. In particular, the possibility of a preexisting sub-horizontal and impersistent joint set is considered, with a potential failure surface that could extend through the rock mass; the safety factor is therefore computed using a combination of strength along the rock joint (using the nonlinear Barton and Choubey (1977) and Barton and Bandis (1990) failure criteria) and along the rock mass (using the nonlinear failure criterion of Hoek and Brown (1980) in its generalized expression from Hoek et al. (2002)). The proposed methodology also considers the influence of a non-associative flow rule that has been incorporated using a (constant) dilation angle (Hoek and Brown 1997). The newly proposed analytical methodology is used to assess the dam stability conditions, employing for this purpose the deterministic and probabilistic models, resulting in the sliding safety factor and the probability of failure respectively. The deterministic model, implemented in MATLAB, is validated using numerical solution computed with the finite difference code FLAC 6.0. The proposed deterministic model provides results that are very similar to those computed with FLAC; however, since the new formulation can be implemented in a spreadsheet, the computational cost of the proposed model is significantly smaller, hence allowing to more easily conduct parametric analyses of the influence of the different input parameters on the dam’s safety. Once the model is validated, parametric analyses are conducting using the main parameters that describe the dam’s foundation. From this study, the impact of the more influential parameters on the sliding stability analysis is obtained and the error of considering the flow rule is assessed. The probability of failure is obtained employing the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). The probabilistic model is then validated using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Results obtained using both methodologies show good agreement for cases in which the rock mass has a nonassociate flow rule. For cases with an associated flow rule errors between 0.70% and 66% are obtained, so that the better adjustments are obtained for cases with, or close to, limit equilibrium conditions. The main advantage of FORM on sliding stability analyses of gravity dams is its computational efficiency, so that Monte Carlo simulations require at least 4 hours on each execution, whereas FORM requires only 1 to 3 minutes on each execution.

Design and construction of the Barriga Dam spillway through an improved wedge-shaped block technology

The Barriga Dam (Burgos, Spain) is a unique case study because its trapezoid spillway is located on the dam body and is composed of wedge-shaped concrete blocks (WSB) that include certain relevant improvements. This note summarizes the main features of the studies, the key aspects of the final design of the WSB and their placement on the dam, and important details of the spillway design. The design team concluded the study by showing the suitability of this enhanced technology for application to small dams and ponds in the short term, even with unit flows above 5 m2/s.

Bonny Dam : technical record of design and construction : constructed 1948-1951, St. Francis unit, Missouri River Basin project.

Bibliography: p. 110.

Glendo Dam and powerplant, constructed 1954-1958, Missouri River Basin project, Glendo United-Wyoming; technical record of design and construction.

Includes bibliography.

Yorkville/Glen Palmer Dam alternative analysis and preliminary design project OWR-02-003 : Yorkville, Illinois, Kendall County.

This executive summary report summarizes the results of an alternative evaluation and preliminary design study for improvements to, or removal of, the Glen D. Palmer Dam in Yorkville, Illinois. This study was conducted to recommend the best method of improving the hydraulic conditions at the downstream face of the dam, reconnect the river with respect to fish movement, and provide safe canoe passage through the dam site. The recommended alternative was developed by working with a Citizen Advisory Committee to involve the public throughout the study.

Seismic Stability and Liquefaction Analysis of Tailings Dam

Proper analysis for safe design of tailings earthen dam is necessary under static loading and more so under earthquake conditions to reduce damages of important geotechnical structure. This paper presents both static and seismic analyses of a typical section of tailings earthen dam constructed by downstream method and located at a site in eastern part India to store non-radioactive nuclear waste material. The entire analysis is performed using geotechnical softwares FLAC(3D) and TALREN 4. Results are obtained for various possible conditions of the reservoir to investigate the stability under both static and seismic loading condition using 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake acceleration-time history. FLAC(3D) analyses indicate the critical maximum displacement at crest of the proposed tailings dam section is 5.5 cm under the static loading but it increases to about 16.24 cm under seismic loading. The slope stability analyses provide the minimum value of factor of safety for seismic loading as 1.5 as compared to 2.31 for static loading. Amplification of base seismic acceleration is also observed. The liquefaction potential analysis in FLAC(3D) indicates considerable loss of shear strength in the tailings portion of the proposed earthen dam section with significantly high values of pore pressure ratio.

Experimental and finite element studies of a large arch dam

Forced vibration field tests and finite element studies have been conducted on Morrow Point (arch) Dam in order to investigate dynamic dam-water interaction and water compressibility. Design of the data acquisition system incorporates several special features to retrieve both amplitude and phase of the response in a low signal to noise environment. These features contributed to the success of the experimental program which, for the first time, produced field evidence of water compressibility; this effect seems to play a significant role only in the symmetric response of Morrow Point Dam in the frequency range examined. In the accompanying analysis, frequency response curves for measured accelerations and water pressures as well as their resonating shapes are compared to predictions from the current state-of-the-art finite element model for which water compressibility is both included and neglected. Calibration of the numerical model employs the antisymmetric response data since they are only slightly affected by water compressibility, and, after calibration, good agreement to the data is obtained whether or not water compressibility is included. In the effort to reproduce the symmetric response data, on which water compressibility has a significant influence, the calibrated model shows better correlation when water compressibility is included, but the agreement is still inadequate. Similar results occur using data obtained previously by others at a low water level. A successful isolation of the fundamental water resonance from the experimental data shows significantly different features from those of the numerical water model, indicating possible inaccuracy in the assumed geometry and/or boundary conditions for the reservoir. However, the investigation does suggest possible directions in which the numerical model can be improved.

Conservation strategies for endemic fish species threatened by the Three Gorges Dam

The largest damming project to date, the Three Gorges Dam has been built along the Yangtze River (China), the most species-rich river in the Palearctic region. Among 162 species of fish inhabiting the main channel of the upper Yangtze, 44 are endemic and are therefore under serious threat of global extinction from the dam. Accordingly, it is urgently necessary to develop strategies to minimize the impacts of the drastic environmental changes associated with the dam. We sought to identify potential reserves for the endemic species among the 17 tributaries in the upper Yangtze, based on presence/absence data for the 44 endemic species. Potential reserves for the endemic species were identified by characterizing the distribution patterns of endemic species with an adaptive learning algorithm called a "self-organizing map" (SOM). Using this method, we also predicted occurrence probabilities of species in potential reserves based on the distribution patterns of communities. Considering both SOM model results and actual knowledge of the biology of the considered species, our results suggested that 24 species may survive in the tributaries, 14 have an uncertain future, and 6 have a high probability of becoming extinct after dam filling.

Mission control system for dam inspection with an AUV

This paper presents a complete control architecture that has been designed to fulfill predefined missions with an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). The control architecture has three levels of control: mission level, task level and vehicle level. The novelty of the work resides in the mission level, which is built with a Petri network that defines the sequence of tasks that are executed depending on the unpredictable situations that may occur. The task control system is composed of a set of active behaviours and a coordinator that selects the most appropriate vehicle action at each moment. The paper focuses on the design of the mission controller and its interaction with the task controller. Simulations, inspired on an industrial underwater inspection of a dam grate, show the effectiveness of the control architecture

Synthesis and evaluation of lipophilic BTBP ligands for An/Ln separation in nuclear waste treatment: the effect of alkyl substitution on extraction properties and implications for ligand design

Four new 6,6′-bis(1,2,4-triazin-3-yl)-2,2′-bipyridine (BTBP) ligands, which contain either additional alkyl groups on the pyridine rings or seven-membered aliphatic rings attached to the triazine rings, have been synthesized, and the effects of the additional alkyl substitution in the 4- and 4′-positions of the pyridine rings on their extraction properties with LnIII and AnIII cations in simulated nuclear waste solutions have been studied. The speciation of ligand 13 with some trivalent lanthanide nitrates was elucidated by 1H NMR spectroscopic titrations and ESI-MS. Although 13 formed both 1:1 and 1:2 complexes with LaIII and YIII, only 1:2 complexes were observed with EuIII and CeIII. Quite unexpectedly, both alkyl-substituted ligands 12 and 13 showed lower solubilities in certain diluents than the unsubstituted ligand CyMe4-BTBP. Compared to CyMe4-BTBP, alkyl-substitution was found to decrease the rates of metal-ion extraction of the ligands in both 1-octanol and cyclohexanone. A highly efficient (DAm > 10) and selective (SFAm/Eu > 90) extraction was observed for 12 and 13 in cyclohexanone and for 13 in 1-octanol in the presence of a phase-transfer agent. The implications of these results for the design of improved extractants for radioactive waste treatment are discussed.