Efetividade do cross hedging dos novilhos argentinos e uruguaios no mercado futuro do boi gordo brasileiro

Na Argentina e no Uruguai, diversas tentativas de negociação de contratos futuros e de índice de preços de carne bovina foram frustradas ao longo dos anos, tendo os derivativos lançados fracassado, em um curto espaço de tempo, por falta de liquidez. Esse cenário, somado a outras particularidades do mercado físico da carne bovina, torna o gerenciamento de risco de preços um problema para os agentes econômicos que atuam nessa cadeia produtiva. Nesse contexto, emergiu a seguinte questão: a proteção cruzada com contratos futuros de boi gordo brasileiro da Bolsa de Valores, Mercadorias e Futuros de São Paulo (BM&FBovespa) é efetiva para a administração do risco de preços dos novilhos de corte no mercado a vista argentino e uruguaio? Com a finalidade de responder a essa questão, propôs-se a verificar se é possível mitigar o risco da volatilidade de preços no mercado a vista dos novilhos de corte argentinos e uruguaios por meio do cross hedging no mercado futuro do boi gordo brasileiro na BM&FBovespa. Para tanto, foram utilizados modelos estáticos e dinâmicos de estimação da razão de cross hedge ótima e efetividade em mitigação do risco. Os resultados do teste de hipóteses de mitigação do risco permitiram assegurar que são fortes as evidências de efetividade do mercado futuro do boi gordo brasileiro na proteção contra o risco de preços do mercado a vista dos novilhos argentinos e uruguaios. Complementarmente, verificou-se a hipótese de eficiência do mercado futuro. Os resultados apresentaram evidências de um relacionamento estocástico comum no longo prazo entre os preços a vista e futuros, e de eficiência na predição dos preços no curto prazo, o que sugere que os contratos futuros de boi gordo brasileiro da BM&FBovespa permitem uma trava adequada de cotação-preço para os novilhos argentinos e uruguaios no mercado a vista.

Better cross hedges with composite hedging? Hedging equity portfolios using financial and commodity futures

Unless a direct hedge is available, cross hedging must be used. In such circumstances portfolio theory implies that a composite hedge (the use of two or more hedging instruments to hedge a single spot position) will be beneficial. The study and use of composite hedging has been neglected; possibly because it requires the estimation of two or more hedge ratios. This paper demonstrates a statistically significant increase in out-of-sample effectiveness from the composite hedging of the Amex Oil Index using S&P500 and New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures. This conclusion is robust to the technique used to estimate the hedge ratios, and to allowance for transactions costs, dividends and the maturity of the futures contracts.

Commodity Price Driven Risk Management from Viewpoint of High Grade Steel Alloys

The study of price risk management concerning high grade steel alloys and their components was conducted. This study was focused in metal commodities, of which nickel, chrome and molybdenum were in a central role. Also possible hedging instruments and strategies for referred metals were studied. In the literature part main themes are price formation of Ni, Cr and Mo, the functioning of metal exchanges and main hedging instruments for metal commodities. This section also covers how micro and macro variables may affect metal prices from the viewpoint of short as well as longer time period. The experimental part consists of three sections. In the first part, multiple regression model with seven explanatory variables was constructed to describe price behavior of nickel. Results were compared after this with information created with comparable simple regression model. Additionally, long time mean price reversion of nickel was studied. In the second part, theoretical price of CF8M alloy was studied by using nickel, ferro-chrome and ferro-molybdenum as explanatory variables. In the last section, cross hedging possibilities for illiquid FeCr -metal was studied with five LME futures. Also this section covers new information concerning possible forthcoming molybdenum future contracts as well. The results of this study confirm, that linear regression models which are based on the assumption of market rationality, are not able to reliably describe price development of metals at issue. Models fulfilling assumptions for linear regression may though include useful information of statistical significant variables which have effect on metal prices. According to the experimental part, short futures were found to incorporate the most accurate information concerning the price movements in the future. However, not even 3M futures were able to predict turning point in the market before the faced slump. Cross hedging seemed to be very doubtful risk management strategy for illiquid metals, because correlations coefficients were found to be very sensitive for the chosen time span.

The cross-currency hedging performance of implied versus statistical forecasting models

This article examines the ability of several models to generate optimal hedge ratios. Statistical models employed include univariate and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (GARCH) models, and exponentially weighted and simple moving averages. The variances of the hedged portfolios derived using these hedge ratios are compared with those based on market expectations implied by the prices of traded options. One-month and three-month hedging horizons are considered for four currency pairs. Overall, it has been found that an exponentially weighted moving-average model leads to lower portfolio variances than any of the GARCH-based, implied or time-invariant approaches.

Delays In Receiving Obstetric Care And Poor Maternal Outcomes: Results From A National Multicentre Cross-sectional Study.

The vast majority of maternal deaths in low-and middle-income countries are preventable. Delay in obtaining access to appropriate health care is a fairly common problem which can be improved. The objective of this study was to explore the association between delay in providing obstetric health care and severe maternal morbidity/death. This was a multicentre cross-sectional study, involving 27 referral obstetric facilities in all Brazilian regions between 2009 and 2010. All women admitted to the hospital with a pregnancy-related cause were screened, searching for potentially life-threatening conditions (PLTC), maternal death (MD) and maternal near-miss (MNM) cases, according to the WHO criteria. Data on delays were collected by medical chart review and interview with the medical staff. The prevalence of the three different types of delays was estimated according to the level of care and outcome of the complication. For factors associated with any delay, the PR and 95%CI controlled for cluster design were estimated. A total of 82,144 live births were screened, with 9,555 PLTC, MNM or MD cases prospectively identified. Overall, any type of delay was observed in 53.8% of cases; delay related to user factors was observed in 10.2%, 34.6% of delays were related to health service accessibility and 25.7% were related to quality of medical care. The occurrence of any delay was associated with increasing severity of maternal outcome: 52% in PLTC, 68.4% in MNM and 84.1% in MD. Although this was not a population-based study and the results could not be generalized, there was a very clear and significant association between frequency of delay and severity of outcome, suggesting that timely and proper management are related to survival.

Relationship Between Lower-limb Muscle Strength And Functional Independence Among Elderly People According To Frailty Criteria: A Cross-sectional Study.

Muscle strength and functional independence are considered to be determinants of frailty levels among elderly people. The aim here was to compare lower-limb muscle strength (LLMS) with functional independence in relation to sex, age and number of frailty criteria, and to ascertain the influence of these variables on elderly outpatients' independence. Quantitative cross-sectional study, in a tertiary hospital. The study was conducted on 150 elderly outpatients of both sexes who were in a cognitive condition allowing oral communication, between October 2005 and October 2007. The following instruments were used: five-times sit-to-stand test (FTSST), Functional Independence Measurement (FIM) and Lawton's Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale (IADL). Descriptive, comparative, multivariate, univariate and Cronbach alpha analyses were performed. The mean time taken in the FTSST was 21.7 seconds; the mean score for FIM was 82.2 and for IADL was 21.2; 44.7% of the subjects presented 1-2 frailty criteria and 55.3% > 3 criteria. There was a significant association between LLMS and functional independence in relation to the number of frailty criteria, without homogeneity regarding sex and age. Functional independence showed significant influence from sex and LLMS. Elderly individuals with 1 or 2 frailty criteria presented greater independence in all FTSST scores. The subjects with higher LLMS presented better functional independence.

Cross-sectional Study Comparing Different Therapeutic Modalities For Cystic Lymphangiomas In Children.

Here, we describe our experience with different therapeutic modalities used to treat cystic lymphangiomas in children in our hospital, including single therapy with OK-432, bleomycin and surgery, and a combination of the three modalities. We performed a retrospective, cross-sectional study including patients treated from 1998 to 2011. The effects on macrocystic lymphangiomas and adverse reactions were evaluated. Twenty-nine children with cystic lymphangiomas without any previous treatment were included. Under general anesthesia, patients given sclerosing agents underwent puncture of the lesion (guided by ultrasound when necessary) and complete aspiration of the intralesional liquid. The patients were evaluated with ultrasound and clinical examinations for a maximum follow-up time of 4 years. The proportions of patients considered cured after the first therapeutic approach were 44% in the surgery group, 29% in the bleomycin group and 31% in the OK-432 group. These proportions were not significantly different. Sequential treatment increased the rates of curative results to 71%, 74% and 44%, respectively, after the final treatment, which in our case was approximately 1.5 applications per patient. The results of this study indicate that most patients with cystic lymphangiomas do not show complete resolution after the initial therapy, regardless of whether the therapy is surgical or involves the use of sclerosing agents. To achieve complete resolution of the lesions, either multiple operations or a combination of surgery and sclerotherapy must be used and should be tailored to the characteristics of each patient.

New Microsatellite Markers For Wild And Commercial Species Of Passiflora (passifloraceae) And Cross-amplification.

• We developed the first microsatellites for Passiflora setacea and characterized new sets of markers for P. edulis and P. cincinnata, enabling further genetic diversity studies to support the conservation and breeding of passion fruit species. • We developed 69 microsatellite markers and, in conjunction with assessments of cross-amplification using primers available from the literature, present 43 new polymorphic microsatellite loci for three species of Passiflora. The mean number of alleles per locus was 3.1, and the mean values of the expected and observed levels of heterozygosity were 0.406 and 0.322, respectively. • These microsatellite markers will be valuable tools for investigating the genetic diversity and population structure of wild and commercial species of passion fruit (Passiflora spp.) and may be useful for developing conservation and improvement strategies by contributing to the understanding of the mating system and hybridization within the genus.

Patients' Perceptions About Diagnosis And Treatment Of Chronic Myeloid Leukemia: A Cross-sectional Study Among Brazilian Patients.

Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) requires strict daily compliance with oral medication and regular blood and bone marrow control tests. The objective was to evaluate CML patients' perceptions about the disease, their access to information regarding the diagnosis, monitoring and treatment, adverse effects and associations of these variables with patients' demographics, region and healthcare access. Prospective cross-sectional study among CML patients registered with the Brazilian Lymphoma and Leukemia Association (ABRALE). CML patients receiving treatment through the public healthcare system were interviewed by telephone. Among 1,102 patients interviewed, the symptoms most frequently leading them to seek medical care were weakness or fatigue. One third were diagnosed by means of routine tests. The time that elapsed between first symptoms and seeking medical care was 42.28 ± 154.21 days. Most patients had been tested at least once for Philadelphia chromosome, but 43.2% did not know the results. 64.8% had had polymerase chain reaction testing for the BCR/ABL gene every three months. 47% believed that CML could be controlled, but 33.1% believed that there was no treatment. About 24% reported occasionally stopping their medication. Imatinib was associated with nausea, cramps and muscle pain. Self-reported treatment adherence was significantly associated with normalized blood count, and positively associated with imatinib. There is a lack of information or understanding about disease monitoring tools among Brazilian CML patients; they are diagnosed quickly and have good access to treatment. Correct comprehension of CML control tools is impaired in Brazilian patients.

Waist-to-height Ratio Percentiles And Cutoffs For Obesity: A Cross-sectional Study In Brazilian Adolescents.

This study aimed to describe the distribution of waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) percentiles and cutoffs for obesity in Brazilian adolescents. A cross-sectional study including adolescents aged 10 to 15 years was conducted in the city of São Paulo, Brazil; anthropometric measurements (weight, height, and waist-circumference) were taken, and WHtRs were calculated and then divided into percentiles derived by using Least Median of Squares (LMS) regression. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used in determining cutoffs for obesity (BMI ≥ 97th percentile) and Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used for comparing variables. The study included 8,019 adolescents from 43 schools, of whom 54.5% were female, and 74.8% attended public schools. Boys had higher mean WHtR than girls (0.45 ± 0.06 vs 0.44 ± 0.05; p=0.002) and higher WHtR at the 95th percentile (0.56 vs 0.54; p<0.05). The WHtR cutoffs according to the WHO criteria ranged from 0.467 to 0.506 and 0.463 to 0.496 among girls and boys respectively, with high sensitivity (82.8-95%) and specificity (84-95.5%). The WHtR was significantly associated with body adiposity measured by BMI. Its age-specific percentiles and cutoffs may be used as additional surrogate markers of central obesity and its co-morbidities.

Dyspareunia In Hiv-positive And Hiv-negative Middle-aged Women: A Cross-sectional Study.

To evaluate whether dyspareunia is associated with HIV status in menopausal women and also to assess which factors are associated with dyspareunia in a group of HIV-positive menopausal women. A cross-sectional study was conducted with 178 HIV-negative and 128 HIV-positive women aged 40-60 years. The Short Personal Experiences Questionnaire (SPEQ) was used to collect data. Sociodemographic, clinical, behavioural and reproductive factors were evaluated, as well as factors related to the HIV infection. Dyspareunia was defined as pain during intercourse. A bivariate analysis and Poisson multiple regression analysis were performed. Overall, 41.4% of the HIV-positive women reported dyspareunia compared with 34.8% of the HIV-negative women (p=0.242). In the HIV-positive women, bivariate analysis revealed an association between dyspareunia and having a steady partner (p=0.047); the woman's partner having undergone HIV testing (p=0.020); vaginal dryness (p<0.001); muscle/joint pain (p=0.021); physical/emotional violence (p=0.049); urinary incontinence (p=0.004); and the use of lamivudine/zidovudine (p=0.048). The Poisson multiple regression analysis found an association between dyspareunia and vaginal dryness (prevalence ratio (PR)=1.96, 95% CI 1.10 to 3.50, p=0.023) and urinary incontinence (PR=1.86, 95% CI 1.06 to 3.27, p=0.031). Dyspareunia was common in this group of HIV-positive women and was associated principally with vaginal dryness and urinary incontinence. The importance of treating dyspareunia within the context of sexual health in this group of women should be emphasised and appropriate management of this issue may reduce the likelihood of lesions on the vaginal wall, which may act as a portal of entry for other infections.

Microsatellite In Aeschynomene Falcata (leguminosae): Diversity, Cross-amplification, And Chromosome Localization.

Aeschynomene falcata is an important forage species; however, because of low seed production, it is underutilized as forage species. Aeschynomene is a polyphyletic genus with a challenging taxonomic position. Two subgenera have been proposed, and it is suggested that Aeschynomene can be split in 2 genera. Thus, new markers, such as microsatellite sequences, are desirable for improving breeding programs for A. falcata. Based on transferability and in situ localization, these microsatellite sequences can be applied as chromosome markers in the genus Aeschynomene and closely related genera. Here, we report the first microsatellite library developed for this genus; 11 microsatellites were characterized, with observed and expected heterozygosities ranging from 0.0000 to 0.7143 and from 0.1287 to 0.8360, respectively. Polymorphic information content varied from 0.1167 to 0.7786. The departure from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium may have resulted from frequent autogamy, which is characteristic of A. falcata. Of the 11 microsatellites, 9 loci were cross-amplified in A. brevipes and A. paniculata and 7 in Dalbergia nigra and Machaerium vestitum. Five of these 7 cross-amplified microsatellites were applied as probes during the in situ hybridization assay and 2 showed clear signals on A. falcata chromosomes, ensuring their viability as chromosome markers.

Sim-xl: A Powerful And User-friendly Tool For Peptide Cross-linking Analysis.

Chemical cross-linking has emerged as a powerful approach for the structural characterization of proteins and protein complexes. However, the correct identification of covalently linked (cross-linked or XL) peptides analyzed by tandem mass spectrometry is still an open challenge. Here we present SIM-XL, a software tool that can analyze data generated through commonly used cross-linkers (e.g., BS3/DSS). Our software introduces a new paradigm for search-space reduction, which ultimately accounts for its increase in speed and sensitivity. Moreover, our search engine is the first to capitalize on reporter ions for selecting tandem mass spectra derived from cross-linked peptides. It also makes available a 2D interaction map and a spectrum-annotation tool unmatched by any of its kind. We show SIM-XL to be more sensitive and faster than a competing tool when analyzing a data set obtained from the human HSP90. The software is freely available for academic use at http://patternlabforproteomics.org/sim-xl. A video demonstrating the tool is available at http://patternlabforproteomics.org/sim-xl/video. SIM-XL is the first tool to support XL data in the mzIdentML format; all data are thus available from the ProteomeXchange consortium (identifier PXD001677).