920 resultados para Climate Change: Learning from the past climate


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This paper applies a policy analysis approach to the question of how to effectively regulate micropollution in a sustainable manner. Micropollution is a complex policy problem characterized by a huge number and diversity of chemical substances, as well as various entry paths into the aquatic environment. It challenges traditional water quality management by calling for new technologies in wastewater treatment and behavioral changes in industry, agriculture and civil society. In light of such challenges, the question arises as to how to regulate such a complex phenomenon to ensure water quality is maintained in the future? What can we learn from past experiences in water quality regulation? To answer these questions, policy analysis strongly focuses on the design and choice of policy instruments and the mix of such measures. In this paper, we review instruments commonly used in past water quality regulation. We evaluate their ability to respond to the characteristics of a more recent water quality problem, i.e., micropollution, in a sustainable way. This way, we develop a new framework that integrates both the problem dimension (i.e., causes and effects of a problem) as well as the sustainability dimension (e.g., long-term, cross-sectoral and multi-level) to assess which policy instruments are best suited to regulate micropollution. We thus conclude that sustainability criteria help to identify an appropriate instrument mix of end-of-pipe and source-directed measures to reduce aquatic micropollution.

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During the late Quaternary, both external and internal forcings have driven major climatic shifts from glacial to interglacial conditions. Nonlinear climatic steps characterized the transitions leading to these extrema, with intermediate excursions particularly well xpressed in the dynamics of the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere. Here we document the impact of these dynamics on the north-eastern North Atlantic Ocean, focussing on the 35-10 ka interval. Sea-surface salinities have been reconstructed quantitatively based on two independent methods from core MD95-2002, recovered from the northern Bay of Biscay adjacent to the axis of the Manche paleoriver outlet and thus in connection with proximal European ice sheets and glaciers. Quantitative reconstructions deriving from dinocyst and planktonic foraminiferal analyses have been combined within a robust chronology to assess the amplitude and timing of hydrological changes in this region. Our study evidences strong pulsed freshwater discharges which may have impacted the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

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The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has been identified as one of the most rapidly warming region on Earth. Satellite monitoring currently allows for a detailed understanding of the relationship between sea ice extent and duration and atmospheric and oceanic circulations in this region. However, our knowledge on ocean-ice-atmosphere interactions is still relatively poor for the period extending beyond the last 30 years. Here, we describe environmental conditions in Northwestern and Northeastern Antarctic Peninsula areas over the last century using diatom census counts and diatom specific biomarkers (HBIs) in two marine sediment multicores (MTC-38C and -18A, respectively). Diatom census counts and HBIs show abrupt changes between 1935 and 1950, marked by ocean warming and sea ice retreat in both sides of the AP. Since 1950, inferred environmental conditions do not provide evidence for any trend related to the recent warming but demonstrate a pronounced variability on pluri-annual to decadal time scale. We propose that multi-decadal sea ice variations over the last century are forced by the recent warming, while the annual-to-decadal variability is mainly governed by synoptic and regional wind fields in relation with the position and intensity of the atmospheric low-pressure trough around the AP. However, the positive shift of the SAM since the last two decades cannot explain the regional trend observed in this study, probably due to the effect of local processes on the response of our biological proxies.

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The paper reassesses the role of climate as a factor shaping changes in settlement and landscape in the Swedish Iron Age (500 BC to AD 1050). Two reasons motivate this re-evaluation. First, high-resolution data based on climate proxies from the natural sciences are now increasingly available. Second, the climate-related social sciences have yielded conceptual and theoretical developments regarding vulnerability and adaptability in the present and recent past, creating new ways to analyse the effects of climatic versus societal factors on societies in the more distant past. Recent research in this field is evaluated and the explicitly climate deterministic standpoint of many recent natural science texts is criticized. Learning from recent approaches to climate change in the social sciences is crucial for understanding society–climate relationships in the past. The paper concludes that we are not yet in a position to fully evaluate the role of the new evidence of abrupt climate change in 850 BC, at the beginning of the Iron Age. Regarding the crisis in the mid first millennium AD, however, new climate data indicate that a dust veil in AD 536–537 might have aggravated the economic and societal crisis known from previous research.

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We describe the approach to be adopted for a major new initiative to derive a homogeneous record of sea surface temperature for 1991–2007 from the observations of the series of three along-track scanning radiometers (ATSRs). This initiative is called (A)RC: (Advanced) ATSR Re-analysis for Climate. The main objectives are to reduce regional biases in retrieved sea surface temperature (SST) to less than 0.1 K for all global oceans, while creating a very homogenous record that is stable in time to within 0.05 K decade−1, with maximum independence of the record from existing analyses of SST used in climate change research. If these stringent targets are achieved, this record will enable significantly improved estimates of surface temperature trends and variability of sufficient quality to advance questions of climate change attribution, climate sensitivity and historical reconstruction of surface temperature changes. The approach includes development of new, consistent estimators for SST for each of the ATSRs, and detailed analysis of overlap periods. Novel aspects of the approach include generation of multiple versions of the record using alternative channel sets and cloud detection techniques, to assess for the first time the effect of such choices. There will be extensive effort in quality control, validation and analysis of the impact on climate SST data sets. Evidence for the plausibility of the 0.1 K target for systematic error is reviewed, as is the need for alternative cloud screening methods in this context.