Reality check for volatility models

Asset allocation decisions and value at risk calculations rely strongly on volatility estimates. Volatility measures such as rolling window, EWMA, GARCH and stochastic volatility are used in practice. GARCH and EWMA type models that incorporate the dynamic structure of volatility and are capable of forecasting future behavior of risk should perform better than constant, rolling window volatility models. For the same asset the model that is the ‘best’ according to some criterion can change from period to period. We use the reality check test∗ to verify if one model out-performs others over a class of re-sampled time-series data. The test is based on re-sampling the data using stationary bootstrapping. For each re-sample we check the ‘best’ model according to two criteria and analyze the distribution of the performance statistics. We compare constant volatility, EWMA and GARCH models using a quadratic utility function and a risk management measurement as comparison criteria. No model consistently out-performs the benchmark.

Linking Theory and Practice: Performing a Reality Check on a Model of IS Success

The issue of ‘rigour vs. relevance’ in IS research has generated an intense, heated debate for over a decade. It is possible to identify, however, only a limited number of contributions on how to increase the relevance of IS research without compromising its rigour. Based on a lifecycle view of IS research, we propose the notion of ‘reality checks’ in order to review IS research outcomes in the light of actual industry demands. We assume that five barriers impact the efficient transfer of IS research outcomes; they are lack of awareness, lack of understandability, lack of relevance, lack of timeliness, and lack of applicability. In seeking to understand the effect of these barriers on the transfer of mature IS research into practice, we used focus groups. We chose DeLone and McLean’s IS success model as our stimulus because it is one of the more widely researched areas of IS.

Taking a 'reality' check : expanding pre-service teachers' views on pedagogy and diversity

The outcomes of a two-pronged 'real-world' learning project, which aimed to expand the views of pre-service teachers about learning, pedagogy and diversity, will be discussed in this paper. Seventy-two fourth-year and 22 first-year students, enrolled in a Bachelor of Education degree in Queensland, Australia, were engaged in community sites outside of university lectures, and separate from their practicum. Using Butin's conceptual framework for service learning, we show evidence that this approach can enable pre-service teachers to see new realities about the dilemmas and ambiguities of performing as learners and as teachers. We contend that when such 'real-world' experiences have different foci at different times in their four-year degree, pre-service teachers have more opportunities to develop sophisticated understandings of pedagogy in diverse contexts for diverse learners.

BIM : expectations and a reality check

BIM (Building Information Modelling) is an approach that involves applying and maintaining an integral digital representation of all building information for different phases of the project lifecycle. This paper presents an analysis of the current state of BIM in the industry and a re-assessment of its role and potential contribution in the near future, given the apparent slow rate of adoption by the industry. The paper analyses the readiness of the building industry with respect to the product, processes and people to present an argument on where the expectations from BIM and its adoption may have been misplaced. This paper reports on the findings from: (1) a critical review of latest BIM literature and commercial applications, and (2) workshops with focus groups on changing work-practice, role of technology, current perceptions and expectations of BIM.

Verifying a Student Engagement, Success and Retention Maturity Model (SESR-MM): A reality check of the model using data derived from three universities

Australian higher education institutions (HEIs) have entered a new phase of regulation and accreditation which includes performance-based funding relating to the participation and retention of students from social and cultural groups previously underrepresented in higher education. However, in addressing these priorities, it is critical that HEIs do not further disadvantage students from certain groups by identifying them for attention because of their social or cultural backgrounds, circumstances which are largely beyond the control of students. In response, many HEIs are focusing effort on university-wide approaches to enhancing the student experience because such approaches will enhance the engagement, success and retention of all students, and in doing so, particularly benefit those students who come from underrepresented groups. Measuring and benchmarking student experiences and engagement that arise from these efforts is well supported by extensive collections of student experience survey data. However no comparable instrument exists that measures the capability of institutions to influence and/or enhance student experiences where capability is an indication of how well an organisational process does what it is designed to do (Rosemann & de Bruin, 2005). We have proposed that the concept of a maturity model (Marshall, 2010; Paulk, 1999) may be useful as a way of assessing the capability of HEIs to provide and implement student engagement, success and retention activities and we are currently articulating a Student Engagement, Success and Retention Maturity Model (SESR-MM), (Clarke, Nelson & Stoodley, 2012; Nelson, Clarke & Stoodley, 2012). Our research aims to address the current gap by facilitating the development of an SESR-MM instrument that aims (i) to enable institutions to assess the capability of their current student engagement and retention programs and strategies to influence and respond to student experiences within the institution; and (ii) to provide institutions with the opportunity to understand various practices across the sector with a view to further improving programs and practices relevant to their context. Our research extends the generational approach which has been useful in considering the evolutionary nature of the first year experience (FYE) (Wilson, 2009). Three generations have been identified and explored: First generation approaches that focus on co-curricular strategies (e.g. orientation and peer programs); Second generation approaches that focus on curriculum (e.g. pedagogy, curriculum design, and learning and teaching practice); and third generation approaches—also referred to as transition pedagogy—that focus on the production of an institution-wide integrated holistic intentional blend of curricular and co-curricular activities (Kift, Nelson & Clarke, 2010). Our research also moves beyond assessments of students’ experiences to focus on assessing institutional processes and their capability to influence student engagement. In essence, we propose to develop and use the maturity model concept to produce an instrument that will indicate the capability of HEIs to manage and improve student engagement, success and retention programs and strategies. The issues explored in this workshop are (i) whether the maturity model concept can be usefully applied to provide a measure of institutional capability for SESR; (ii) whether the SESR-MM can be used to assess the maturity of a particular set of institutional practices; and (iii) whether a collective assessment of an institution’s SESR capabilities can provide an indication of the maturity of the institution’s SESR activities. The workshop will be approached in three stages. Firstly, participants will be introduced to the key characteristics of maturity models, followed by a discussion of the SESR-MM and the processes involved in its development. Secondly, participants will be provided with resources to facilitate the development of a maturity model and an assessment instrument for a range of institutional processes and related practices. In the final stage of the workshop, participants will “assess” the capability of these practices to provide a collective assessment of the maturity of these processes. References Australian Council for Educational Research. (n.d.). Australasian Survey of Student Engagement. Retrieved from http://www.acer.edu.au/research/ausse/background Clarke, J., Nelson, K., & Stoodley, I. (2012, July). The Maturity Model concept as framework for assessing the capability of higher education institutions to address student engagement, success and retention: New horizon or false dawn? A Nuts & Bolts presentation at the 15th International Conference on the First Year in Higher Education, “New Horizons,” Brisbane, Australia. Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations. (n.d.). The University Experience Survey. Advancing quality in higher education information sheet. Retrieved from http://www.deewr.gov.au/HigherEducation/Policy/Documents/University_Experience_Survey.pdf Kift, S., Nelson, K., & Clarke, J. (2010) Transition pedagogy - a third generation approach to FYE: A case study of policy and practice for the higher education sector. The International Journal of the First Year in Higher Education, 1(1), pp. 1-20. Marshall, S. (2010). A quality framework for continuous improvement of e-Learning: The e-Learning Maturity Model. Journal of Distance Education, 24(1), 143-166. Nelson, K., Clarke, J., & Stoodley, I. (2012). An exploration of the Maturity Model concept as a vehicle for higher education institutions to assess their capability to address student engagement. A work in progress. Submitted for publication. Paulk, M. (1999). Using the Software CMM with good judgment, ASQ Software Quality Professional, 1(3), 19-29. Wilson, K. (2009, June–July). The impact of institutional, programmatic and personal interventions on an effective and sustainable first-year student experience. Keynote address presented at the 12th Pacific Rim First Year in Higher Education Conference, “Preparing for Tomorrow Today: The First Year as Foundation,” Townsville, Australia. Retrieved from http://www.fyhe.com.au/past_papers/papers09/ppts/Keithia_Wilson_paper.pdf

Cameron’s reality check on Europe. EPIN [Working] Paper No. 38, 15 April 2014

Ever since Prime Minister David Cameron made his major speech on Europe on 23 January 2013, in which he argued for some kind of new deal between the UK and the EU, the rest of the EU as well as the British public have been wondering what he would actually propose in operational terms. On 15 March 2014, the Prime Minister offered at least an interim reply to these questions in an article in the Daily Telegraph newspaper. This paper extracts from the Daily Telegraph article the main ideas that the Prime Minister advances. In all, 10 propositions are identified, presented in the precise language used, followed by an appraisal. The article has not attracted so much attention, mainly because its content is not particularly sensational, but that is its real importance and quality. It points the way towards resolving what otherwise would mean a huge political crisis for the UK and the EU. The Prime Minister gave the overall impression that he is not now heading towards making an impossibly difficult list of demands. On the contrary, an informed and moderate realism seems to be in the making. The package outlined in this paper could be sold in Brussels. There would then have to be a robust communications campaign to sell it to the British public. This paper is part of a series for a CEPS-EPIN project on “The British Question and the Search for a Fresh European Narrative”, which is pegged to an ambitious ongoing exercise by the British government to review all the competences of the European Union. The intention is that this should provide a basis for informed debate before the referendum on the UK remaining in the EU or not, which is scheduled for 2017.

Estudo da lucratividade de modelos de análise técnica no mercado de câmbio brasileiro

Este trabalho estuda a lucratividade dos modelos de Análise Técnica no mercado de câmbio brasileiro. Utilizando a metodologia de White (2000) para testar 1712 regras geradas a partir de quatro modelos de Análise Técnica verifica-se que a melhor regra não possui poder de previsibilidade significante ao se considerar os efeitos de data-snooping. Os resultados indicam que o mercado de câmbio brasileiro está de acordo com a hipótese de mercado eficiente sugerida pela literatura.

Predictability of equity models

In this study, we verify the existence of predictability in the Brazilian equity market. Unlike other studies in the same sense, which evaluate original series for each stock, we evaluate synthetic series created on the basis of linear models of stocks. Following Burgess (1999), we use the “stepwise regression” model for the formation of models of each stock. We then use the variance ratio profile together with a Monte Carlo simulation for the selection of models with potential predictability. Unlike Burgess (1999), we carry out White’s Reality Check (2000) in order to verify the existence of positive returns for the period outside the sample. We use the strategies proposed by Sullivan, Timmermann & White (1999) and Hsu & Kuan (2005) amounting to 26,410 simulated strategies. Finally, using the bootstrap methodology, with 1,000 simulations, we find strong evidence of predictability in the models, including transaction costs.

The Financial Benefit For Insurers : Mediate in Personal Injuries Disputes

Resolving insurance disputes can focus only on quantum. Where insurers adopt integrative solutions they can enjoy cost savings and higher customer satisfaction. An integratively managed process can expand the negotiation options. The potential inherent in plaintiff’s emotions to resolve matters on an emotional basis, rather than an economic one, is explored. Using research, the author demonstrates how mediations are more likely to obtain integrative outcomes than unmediated conferences. Using a combination of governmental reports, published studies and academic publications, the paper demonstrates how mediation is more likely to foster an environment where the parties communicate and cooperate. Research is employed to demonstrate where mediators can reduce hostilities, in circumstances where negotiating parties alone would likely fail. Generally the paper constructs an argument to support the proposition that mediation can offer insurers an effective mechanism to reduce costs and increase customer satisfaction. INTRODUCTION Mediation can offer insurers an effective mechanism to reduce costs and increase customer satisfaction. This paper will first demonstrate the differences between distributive and integrative outcomes. It is argued insurer’s interest can be far better served through obtaining an integrative solution. The paper explains how the mediator can assist both parties to obtain an integrative outcome. Simultaneously the paper explores the extreme difficulties conference participants face in obtaining an integrative outcome without a mediator in an adversarial climate. The mediator’s ability to assist in the facilitation of integrative information exchange, defuse hostilities and reality check expectations is discussed. The mediator’s ability to facilitate in this area is compared to the inability of conference participants to achieve similar results. This paper concludes, the potential financial benefit offered by integrative solutions, combined with the ability of mediation to deliver such outcomes where unmediated conferences cannot deliver, leads to the recommendation that insurers opt for a mediation to best serve their commercial interests.

Social control of the drinking driver

It is more that 20 years since the “Social Control of the Drink Driver” edited by Laurence, Snortum and Zimring (1988) were published. It was, and remains a major examination of the issue involving 17 scientists from all relevant disciplines and policy centres and represents the current practice and experience at the time. While much of, but by no means all, the content is centred on the North American experience the scholarship and range of research data explored through the investigative lens of lawyers, pharmacologists, psychologists, sociologists, criminologists and economists covers all the major issues being examined in Europe, and Australia at the time. More importantly, it presents the policy aspirations and goals of nine countries and includes a comparison of deterrence and the legal context in six countries; emerging technologies for control and the potential contributions of education and rehabilitation. The experience of promoting evidence based policies and practices are generally experienced in all countries as both laborious and painfully slow. However, this ICADTS meeting in Norway provides an opportunity to challenge these feelings by re-examining the current situation compared with that documented over 20yrs ago. This presentation will undertake a reality check on just what we have achieved within that time and try to attribute success and failure towards recommendations for our future endeavours.

Sorte versus habilidade, uma abordagem através de cross section da indústria de fundos de ações no Brasil

Neste trabalho testa-se inicialmente se fundos com gestão ativa apresentam alfa (excesso de retorno) em relação aos índices de referência de fundos passivos. Simulações via bootstrap visam indicar se o excesso de retorno apresentado pode ser atribuído apenas à sorte. Com esta metodologia concluiu-se que a carteira agregada de fundos de investimentos de ação com gestão ativa no Brasil não apresenta excesso de retorno em relação aos principais índices da bolsa brasileira, quando líquidos de taxas e despesas. As simulações de bootstrap sugerem que uma quantidade maior de fundos apresenta retornos ajustados ao benchmark do que o esperado pelo efeito da aleatoriedade nos resultados.