Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

Essays on Machine Learning and Hedonic Models

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Theoretical and empirical essays on microeconometrics

This Master Thesis consists of one theoretical article and one empirical article on the field of Microeconometrics. The first chapter\footnote{We also thank useful suggestions by Marinho Bertanha, Gabriel Cepaluni, Brigham Frandsen, Dalia Ghanem, Ricardo Masini, Marcela Mello, Áureo de Paula, Cristine Pinto, Edson Severnini and seminar participants at São Paulo School of Economics, the California Econometrics Conference 2015 and the 37\textsuperscript{th} Brazilian Meeting of Econometrics.}, called \emph{Synthetic Control Estimator: A Generalized Inference Procedure and Confidence Sets}, contributes to the literature about inference techniques of the Synthetic Control Method. This methodology was proposed to answer questions involving counterfactuals when only one treated unit and a few control units are observed. Although this method was applied in many empirical works, the formal theory behind its inference procedure is still an open question. In order to fulfill this lacuna, we make clear the sufficient hypotheses that guarantee the adequacy of Fisher's Exact Hypothesis Testing Procedure for panel data, allowing us to test any \emph{sharp null hypothesis} and, consequently, to propose a new way to estimate Confidence Sets for the Synthetic Control Estimator by inverting a test statistic, the first confidence set when we have access only to finite sample, aggregate level data whose cross-sectional dimension may be larger than its time dimension. Moreover, we analyze the size and the power of the proposed test with a Monte Carlo experiment and find that test statistics that use the synthetic control method outperforms test statistics commonly used in the evaluation literature. We also extend our framework for the cases when we observe more than one outcome of interest (simultaneous hypothesis testing) or more than one treated unit (pooled intervention effect) and when heteroskedasticity is present. The second chapter, called \emph{Free Economic Area of Manaus: An Impact Evaluation using the Synthetic Control Method}, is an empirical article. We apply the synthetic control method for Brazilian city-level data during the 20\textsuperscript{th} Century in order to evaluate the economic impact of the Free Economic Area of Manaus (FEAM). We find that this enterprise zone had positive significant effects on Real GDP per capita and Services Total Production per capita, but it also had negative significant effects on Agriculture Total Production per capita. Our results suggest that this subsidy policy achieve its goal of promoting regional economic growth, even though it may have provoked mis-allocation of resources among economic sectors.

Monte Carlo Simulation Of The Response Functions Of Cdte Detectors To Be Applied In X-ray Spectroscopy.

In this work, the energy response functions of a CdTe detector were obtained by Monte Carlo (MC) simulation in the energy range from 5 to 160keV, using the PENELOPE code. In the response calculations the carrier transport features and the detector resolution were included. The computed energy response function was validated through comparison with experimental results obtained with (241)Am and (152)Eu sources. In order to investigate the influence of the correction by the detector response at diagnostic energy range, x-ray spectra were measured using a CdTe detector (model XR-100T, Amptek), and then corrected by the energy response of the detector using the stripping procedure. Results showed that the CdTe exhibits good energy response at low energies (below 40keV), showing only small distortions on the measured spectra. For energies below about 80keV, the contribution of the escape of Cd- and Te-K x-rays produce significant distortions on the measured x-ray spectra. For higher energies, the most important correction is the detector efficiency and the carrier trapping effects. The results showed that, after correction by the energy response, the measured spectra are in good agreement with those provided by a theoretical model of the literature. Finally, our results showed that the detailed knowledge of the response function and a proper correction procedure are fundamental for achieving more accurate spectra from which quality parameters (i.e., half-value layer and homogeneity coefficient) can be determined.

The Biopsychosocial Spiritual Model Applied To The Treatment Of women With Breast Cancer, Through Rime Intervention (relaxation, mental Images, Spirituality).

This postdoctoral study on the application of the RIME intervention in women that had undergone mastectomy and were in treatment, aimed to promote psychospiritual and social transformations to improve the quality of life, self-esteem and hope. A total of 28 women participated and were randomized into two groups. Brief Psychotherapy (PB) (average of six sessions) was administered in the Control Group, and RIME (three sessions) and BP (average of five sessions) were applied in the RIME Group. The quantitative results indicated a significant improvement (38.3%) in the Perception of Quality of Life after RIME according to the WHOQOL, compared both to the BP of the Control Group (12.5%), and the BP of the RIME Group (16.2%). There was a significant improvement in Self-esteem (Rosenberg) after RIME (14.6%) compared to the BP of the Control Group (worsened 35.9%), and the BP of the RIME Group (8.3%). The improvement in well-being, considering the focus worked on (Visual Analog Scale), was significant in the RIME Group (bad to good), as well as in the Control Group (unpleasant to good). The qualitative results indicated that RIME promotes creative transformations in the intrapsychic and interpersonal dimensions, so that new meanings and/or new attitudes emerge into the consciousness. It was observed that RIME has more strength of psychic structure, ego strengthening and provides a faster transformation that BP, therefore it can be indicated for crisis treatment in the hospital environment.

Nanoparticles Applied To Plant Science: A Review.

The present review addresses certain important aspects regarding nanoparticles and the environment, with an emphasis on plant science. The production and characterization of nanoparticles is the focus of this review, providing an idea of the range and the consolidation of these aspects in the literature, with modifications on the routes of synthesis and the application of the analytical techniques for characterization of the nanoparticles (NPs). Additionally, aspects related to the interaction between the NPs and plants, their toxicities, and the phytoremediation process, among others, are also discussed. Future trends are also presented, supplying evidence for certain possibilities regarding new research involving nanoparticles and plants.

Rare earth element and yttrium geochemistry applied to the genetic study of cryolite ore at the Pitinga Mine (Amazon, Brazil)

This work aims at the geochemical study of Pitinga cryolite mineralization through REE and Y analyses in disseminated and massive cryolite ore deposits, as well as in fluorite occurrences. REE signatures in fluorite and cryolite are similar to those in the Madeira albite granite. The highest ΣREE values are found in magmatic cryolite (677 to 1345 ppm); ΣREE is lower in massive cryolite. Average values for the different cryolite types are 10.3 ppm, 6.66 ppm and 8.38 ppm (for nucleated, caramel and white types, respectively). Disseminated fluorite displays higher ΣREE values (1708 and 1526ppm) than fluorite in late veins(34.81ppm). Yttrium concentration is higher in disseminated fluorite and in magmatic cryolite. The evolution of several parameters (REEtotal, LREE/HREE, Y) was followed throughout successive stages of evolution in albite granites and associated mineralization. At the end of the process, late cryolite was formed with low REEtotal content. REE data indicate that the MCD was formed by, and the disseminated ore enriched by (additional formation of hydrothermal disseminated cryolite), hydrothermal fluids, residual from albite granite. The presence of tetrads is poorly defined, although nucleated, caramel and white cryolite types show evidence for tetrad effect.

High performance concrete applied to storage system buildings at low temperatures

According to some estimates, world's population growth is expected about 50% over the next 50 years. Thus, one of the greatest challenges faced by Engineering is to find effective options to food storage and conservation. Some researchers have investigated how to design durable buildings for storing and conserving food. Nowadays, developing concrete with mechanical resistance for room temperatures is a parameter that can be achieved easily. On the other hand, associating it to low temperature of approximately 35 °C negative requires less empiricism, being necessary a suitable dosage method and a careful selection of the material constituents. This ongoing study involves these parameters. The presented concrete was analyzed through non-destructive tests that examines the material properties periodically and verifies its physical integrity. Concrete with and without incorporated air were studied. The results demonstrated that both are resistant to freezing.

Bond Strength of Multicomponent White Cast Iron Coatings Applied by HVOF Thermal Spray Process

Multicomponent white cast iron is a new alloy that belongs to system Fe-C-Cr-W-Mo-V, and because of its excellent wear resistance it is used in the manufacture of hot rolling mills rolls. To date, this alloy has been processed by casting, powder metallurgy, and spray forming. The high-velocity oxyfuel process is now also considered for the manufacture of components with this alloy. The effects of substrate, preheating temperature, and coating thickness on bond strength of coatings have been determined. Substrates of AISI 1020 steel and of cast iron with preheating of 150 A degrees C and at room temperature were used to apply coatings with 200 and 400 mu m nominal thickness. The bond strength of coatings was measured with the pull-off test method and the failure mode by scanning electron microscopic analysis. Coatings with thickness of 200 mu m and applied on substrates of AISI 1020 steel with preheating presented bond strength of 87 +/- A 4 MPa.

Importance of considering a material micro-failure criterion in the numerical modelling of the shot peening process applied to parabolic leaf springs

Shot peening is a cold-working mechanical process in which a shot stream is propelled against a component surface. Its purpose is to introduce compressive residual stresses on component surfaces for increasing the fatigue resistance. This process is widely applied in springs due to the cyclical loads requirements. This paper presents a numerical modelling of shot peening process using the finite element method. The results are compared with experimental measurements of the residual stresses, obtained by the X-rays diffraction technique, in leaf springs submitted to this process. Furthermore, the results are compared with empirical and numerical correlations developed by other authors.

Power Secant Method applied to natural frequency extraction of Timoshenko beam structures

This work deals with an improved plane frame formulation whose exact dynamic stiffness matrix (DSM) presents, uniquely, null determinant for the natural frequencies. In comparison with the classical DSM, the formulation herein presented has some major advantages: local mode shapes are preserved in the formulation so that, for any positive frequency, the DSM will never be ill-conditioned; in the absence of poles, it is possible to employ the secant method in order to have a more computationally efficient eigenvalue extraction procedure. Applying the procedure to the more general case of Timoshenko beams, we introduce a new technique, named ""power deflation"", that makes the secant method suitable for the transcendental nonlinear eigenvalue problems based on the improved DSM. In order to avoid overflow occurrences that can hinder the secant method iterations, limiting frequencies are formulated, with scaling also applied to the eigenvalue problem. Comparisons with results available in the literature demonstrate the strength of the proposed method. Computational efficiency is compared with solutions obtained both by FEM and by the Wittrick-Williams algorithm.

Contribution margin model applied to the marketing planning of a container liner carrier

The implementation of confidential contracts between a container liner carrier and its customers, because of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act (OSRA) 1998, demands a revision in the methodology applied in the carrier's planning of marketing and sales. The marketing and sales planning process should be more scientific and with a better use of operational research tools considering the selection of the customers under contracts, the duration of the contracts, the freight, and the container imbalances of these contracts are basic factors for the carrier's yield. This work aims to develop a decision support system based on a linear programming model to generate the business plan for a container liner carrier, maximizing the contribution margin of its freight.

FILTERING TECHNIQUES APPLIED ON RAW CARRIER PHASE FOR GPS DETECTING SMALL DYNAMIC DISPLACEMENTS

This work is part of a research under construction since 2000, in which the main objective is to measure small dynamic displacements by using L1 GPS receivers. A very sensible way to detect millimetric periodic displacements is based on the Phase Residual Method (PRM). This method is based on the frequency domain analysis of the phase residuals resulted from the L1 double difference static data processing of two satellites in almost orthogonal elevation angle. In this article, it is proposed to obtain the phase residuals directly from the raw phase observable collected in a short baseline during a limited time span, in lieu of obtaining the residual data file from regular GPS processing programs which not always allow the choice of the aimed satellites. In order to improve the ability to detect millimetric oscillations, two filtering techniques are introduced. One is auto-correlation which reduces the phase noise with random time behavior. The other is the running mean to separate low frequency from the high frequency phase sources. Two trials have been carried out to verify the proposed method and filtering techniques. One simulates a 2.5 millimeter vertical antenna displacement and the second uses the GPS data collected during a bridge load test. The results have shown a good consistency to detect millimetric oscillations.