Informational efficiency of the European Union emission allowance market

This thesis studies the informational efficiency of the European Union emission allowance (EUA) market. In an efficient market, the market price is unpredictable and profits above average are impossible in the long run. The main research problem is does the EUA price follow a random walk. The method is an econometric analysis of the price series, which includes an autocorrelation coefficient test and a variance ratio test. The results reveal that the price series is autocorrelated and therefore a nonrandom walk. In order to find out the extent of predictability, the price series is modelled with an autoregressive model. The conclusion is that the EUA price is autocorrelated only to a small degree and that the predictability cannot be used to make extra profits. The EUA market is therefore considered informationally efficient, although the price series does not fulfill the requirements of a random walk. A market review supports the conclusion, but it is clear that the maturing of the market is still in process.

Letter of Anne Seixas acknowledging $200 allowance

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Long Term Dynamics in CO2 Allowance Prices and Carbon Capture Investments

In this paper we analyse the behaviour of the EU market for CO2 emission allowances; specifically, we focus on the contracts maturing in the Kyoto Protocol's second period of application (2008 to 2012). We calibrate the underlying parameters for the allowance price in the long run and we also calibrate those from the Spanish wholesale electricity market. This information is then used to assess the option to install a carbon capture and storage (CCS) unit in a coal-fired power plant. We use a two-dimensional binomial lattice where costs and profits are valued and the optimal investment time is determined. In other words, we study the trigger allowance prices above which it is optimal to install the capture unit immediately. We further analyse the impact of several variables on the critical prices, among them allowance price volatility and a hypothetical government subsidy. We conclude that, at current permit prices, from a financial point of view, immediate installation does not seem justified. This need not be the case, though, if carbon market parameters change dramatically and/or a specific policy to promote these units is adopted.

Balancing Cost and Emissions Certainty: An Allowance Reserve for Cap-and-Trade

On efficiency grounds, the economics community has to date tended to emphasize price-based policies to address climate change - such as taxes or a "safety-valve" price ceiling for cap-and-trade - while environmental advocates have sought a more clear quantitative limit on emissions. This paper presents a simple modification to the idea of a safety valve - a quantitative limit that we call the allowance reserve. Importantly, this idea may bridge the gap between competing interests and potentially improve efficiency relative to tax or other price-based policies. The last point highlights the deficiencies in several previous studies of price and quantity controls for climate change that do not adequately capture the dynamic opportunities within a cap-and-trade system for allowance banking, borrowing, and intertemporal arbitrage in response to unfolding information.

A model for radiation-induced bystander effects, with allowance for spatial position and the effects of cell turnover

Bystander effects, whereby cells that are not directly exposed to ionizing radiation exhibit adverse biological effects, have been observed in a number of experimental systems. A novel stochastic model of the radiation-induced bystander effect is developed that takes account of spatial location, cell killing and repopulation. The ionizing radiation dose- and time-responses of this model are explored, and it is shown to exhibit pronounced downward curvature in the high dose-rate region, similar to that observed in many experimental systems, reviewed in the paper. It is also shown to predict the augmentation of effect after fractionated delivery of dose that has been observed in certain experimental systems. It is shown that the generally intractable solution of the full stochastic system can be considerably simplified by assumption of pairwise conditional dependence that varies exponentially over time. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of feed space allowance and period of access to food on dairy cow performance

Two experiments were conducted to examine the ‘long-term’ effect of feed space allowance and period of access to feed on dairy cow performance. In Experiment 1, three horizontal feed space allowances (20, 40 and 60 cm cow−1) were examined over a 127-d period (14 cows per treatment). In Experiment 2, 48 dairy cows were used in a continuous design (10-week duration) 2 × 2 factorial design experiment comprising two horizontal feed space allowances (15 and 40 cm cow−1), and two periods of access to feed (unrestricted and restricted). With the former, uneaten feed was removed at 08·00 h, while feeding took place at 09·00 h. With the latter, uneaten feed was removed at 06·00 h, while feeding was delayed until 12·00 h. Mean total dry-matter (DM) intakes were 19·0, 18·7 and 19·3 kg cow−1 d−1 with the 20, 40 and 60 cm cow−1 treatments in Experiment 1, and 18·1 and 18·2 kg cow−1 d−1 with the ‘restricted feeding time’ treatments, and 17·8 and 18·1 kg d−1 with the ‘unrestricted feeding time’ treatments (15 and 40 cm respectively) in Experiment 2. None of milk yield, milk composition, or end-of-study live weight or condition score were significantly affected by treatment in either experiment (P > 0·05), while fat + protein yield was reduced with the 15-cm treatment in Experiment 2 (P < 0·05). When access to feed was restricted by space or time constraints, cows modified their time budgets and increased their rates of intake.

Argentina: Impacts of the child allowance programme on the labour-market behaviour of adults

In 2009 Argentina implemented the Universal Child Allowance for Social Protection (AUH), a cash transfer programme for households with children. Coverage provided by the contributory family allowance programme was extended to parents who are unemployed or who work in the informal sector (domestic workers, for example). This paper uses the difference-in-difference estimator and propensity score matching techniques to evaluate the short-term effects of the auh on adult labour participation and income generation. The results suggest that, during its first year of operation, no significant disincentives to work were generated by the programme, given that it did not discourage adults from working or lead to a reduction in the number of hours worked. These findings are highly relevant in the Latin American context where these kinds of cash transfers have become an important component of social protection systems.

On the allowance for support costs in Prager-Rozvany’ optimal layout theory

A recent study by Rozvany and Sokól discussed an important topic in structural design: the allowance for support costs in the optimization process. This paper examines a frequently used kind of support —that of simple foundation with horizontal reaction by friction— that appears no covered for the Authors’ approach. A simple example is examined to illustrate the case and to apply the Authors’ method and the standard design method.

Evidence for a recommended dietary allowance for vitamin C from pharmacokinetics: A comment and analysis

The current recommended dietary allowance (RDA) for vitamin C, as proposed by the Food and Nutrition Board/National Research Council in 1980 and reconfirmed in 1989, is 60 mg daily for nonsmoking adult males. Levine et al. [Levine, M., Conry-Cantilena, C., Wang, Y., Welch, R. W., Washko, P. W., et al. (1996) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 93, 3704–3709], based on a study of vitamin C pharmacokinetics in seven healthy men, have now proposed that the RDA should be increased to 200 mg daily. I have examined, in brief, the experimental and conceptual bases for this new recommendation and its implications for public health and nutrition policy and programs. Using, for illustrative purposes only, data extracted from each of two recent dietary surveys of noninstitutionalized adult males living in households in the Netherlands and the United States, it is predicted that the prevalence of intakes inadequate to meet the individual’s own requirement would be about 96% or 84%, respectively, if the criteria of adequacy used for derivation of the 200 mg RDA are accepted. Depending upon the particular average requirement value for ascorbic acid that might be derived from their data, the proposal by Levine et al. would mean a desirable increase in mean intakes in these two populations by as much about 2- to 3-fold. Hence, before an action of this kind is to be recommended, an answer must be sought to the question whether current experimental data including the criteria selected (saturation kinetics) are adequate to establish a new set of requirements for vitamin C, which then carry such profound policy implications. This will require critical assessment of all of the available evidence emerging from laboratory, clinical, and epidemiological studies to determine whether it provides a sufficient rationale for accepting criteria of vitamin C adequacy such as those proposed by Levine et al. and the requirement estimates so derived.

Vitamin C pharmacokinetics in healthy volunteers: evidence for a recommended dietary allowance.

Determinants of the recommended dietary allowance (RDA) for vitamin C include the relationship between vitamin C dose and steady-state plasma concentration, bioavailability, urinary excretion, cell concentration, and potential adverse effects. Because current data are inadequate, an in-hospital depletion-repletion study was conducted. Seven healthy volunteers were hospitalized for 4-6 months and consumed a diet containing <5 mg of vitamin C daily. Steady-state plasma and tissue concentrations were determined at seven daily doses of vitamin C from 30 to 2500 mg. Vitamin C steady-state plasma concentrations as a function of dose displayed sigmoid kinetics. The steep portion of the curve occurred between the 30- and 100-mg daily dose, the current RDA of 60 mg daily was on the lower third of the curve, the first dose beyond the sigmoid portion of the curve was 200 mg daily, and complete plasma saturation occurred at 1000 mg daily. Neutrophils, monocytes, and lymphocytes saturated at 100 mg daily and contained concentrations at least 14-fold higher than plasma. Bioavailability was complete for 200 mg of vitamin C as a single dose. No vitamin C was excreted in urine of six of seven volunteers until the 100-mg dose. At single doses of 500 mg and higher, bioavailability declined and the absorbed amount was excreted. Oxalate and urate excretion were elevated at 1000 mg of vitamin C daily compared to lower doses. Based on these data and Institute of Medicine criteria, the current RDA of 60 mg daily should be increased to 200 mg daily, which can be obtained from fruits and vegetables. Safe doses of vitamin C are less than 1000 mg daily, and vitamin C daily doses above 400 mg have no evident value.