Tourism time series forecast

In this chapter four combinations of input features and the feedforward, cascade forward and recurrent architectures are compared for the task of forecast tourism time series. The input features of the ANNs consist in the combination of the previous 12 months, the index time modeled by two nodes used to the year and month and one input with the daily hours of sunshine (insolation duration). The index time features associated to the previous twelve values of the time series proved its relevance in this forecast task. The insolation variable can improved results with some architectures, namely the cascade forward architecture. Finally, the experimented ANN models/architectures produced a mean absolute percentage error between 4 and 6%, proving the ability of the ANN models based to forecast this time series. Besides, the feedforward architecture behaved better considering validation and test sets, with 4.2% percentage error in test set.

Tourism demand modelling and forecasting with artificial neural network models: the Mozambique case study

This study is aimed to model and forecast the tourism demand for Mozambique for the period from January 2004 to December 2013 using artificial neural networks models. The number of overnight stays in Hotels was used as representative of the tourism demand. A set of independent variables were experimented in the input of the model, namely: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates, of the outbound tourism markets, South Africa, United State of America, Mozambique, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The best model achieved has 6.5% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error and 0.696 for Pearson correlation coefficient. A model like this with high accuracy of forecast is important for the economic agents to know the future growth of this activity sector, as it is important for stakeholders to provide products, services and infrastructures and for the hotels establishments to adequate its level of capacity to the tourism demand.

Information and communication technologies in tourism: challenges and trends

The integration of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) in the tourism industry is an essential element for the success of any tourism enterprise. ICTs provide access to information of tourism products from anywhere and at any time. Tour companies may also reach out to target customers around the world through a series of emerging technologies. This paper aims to make a review of the main key factors of ICT in Tourism. Aspects such as the quality of the website, Digital Marketing, Social Networking, Multimedia, Mobile Technologies and Intelligent Environments are discussed.

Rural tourism destination competitiveness: Portugal vs Belarus

This research presents a study aimed to evaluate the performance and competitiveness of tourist destinations in Portugal and Belarus within regions. The evaluation was performed under an analytical tool, Market Share Analysis proposed by Faulkner (1997). In addition, it was used some descriptive statistics. The conducted analysis concluded, with respect to the evolution of the destinations tourism that Açores Island is the most prosperous market for the majority of countries, because most countries staid in the zone of Performing market. North, Lisbon and Algarve regions are maturity markets for the most countries, because they stay in Stagnant markets zone. Centre and Alentejo regions could be attributed Emerging markets for the majority of countries once are developing markets. The major market share is occupied by Portugal practically for all regions, except islands. It is also necessary to underline, that the research was made only within two years (2013 and 2014), because of the lack of necessary information in previous years. In the case of Belarus, it could be mentioned, that rural market of this country is developing (but still mostly with neighbour countries), because the number of entities, participating in rural tourism is growing as the number of foreign tourists.

Innovative approaches of regional policy of rural tourism development

The present work intends to study Rural Tourism. More specifically: regional policy of Rural Tourism development. Purpose of this research is creation of innovative qualitative model of regional policy of Rural Tourism development for Ukraine. With this aim literature review was made, developed a research methodology and analysis made. It was established a way of creation of qualitative model, based on studied information and scientific papers. Research methodology was described in next part. Decided to do it in three stages: (1) justification of analytical research; (2) data sample collection and analysis; (3) creating of innovative model of regional policy of Rural Tourism development. Each of these stages have sub stages supported by results of previous. In accordance to methodology, analytical part was made in two steps: (1) analysis of statistical information about rural houses availability; (2) analysis of resources needed for successfully Rural Tourism activity. This part gave information about placement of rural houses by geographical regions and defined most attractive geographical regions for Rural Tourism development. The results showed that the highest rural houses availability is in Western geographical region. Other regions have low level of rural houses availability. However, analysis of resources needed for successful Rural Tourism development showed, that all geographical regions are attractive for organizing Rural Tourism activity. Based on this information an innovative qualitative model of Rural Tourism development was created.