The Basic Reproduction Number Obtained From Jacobian And Next Generation Matrices - A Case Study Of Dengue Transmission Modelling.

The basic reproduction number is a key parameter in mathematical modelling of transmissible diseases. From the stability analysis of the disease free equilibrium, by applying Routh-Hurwitz criteria, a threshold is obtained, which is called the basic reproduction number. However, the application of spectral radius theory on the next generation matrix provides a different expression for the basic reproduction number, that is, the square root of the previously found formula. If the spectral radius of the next generation matrix is defined as the geometric mean of partial reproduction numbers, however the product of these partial numbers is the basic reproduction number, then both methods provide the same expression. In order to show this statement, dengue transmission modelling incorporating or not the transovarian transmission is considered as a case study. Also tuberculosis transmission and sexually transmitted infection modellings are taken as further examples.

Variability Modeling Of Rainfall, Deforestation, And Incidence Of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis In Orán, Argentina, 1985-2007.

American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) is a disease transmitted to humans by the female sandflies of the genus Lutzomyia. Several factors are involved in the disease transmission cycle. In this work only rainfall and deforestation were considered to assess the variability in the incidence of ATL. In order to reach this goal, monthly recorded data of the incidence of ATL in Orán, Salta, Argentina, were used, in the period 1985-2007. The square root of the relative incidence of ATL and the corresponding variance were formulated as time series, and these data were smoothed by moving averages of 12 and 24 months, respectively. The same procedure was applied to the rainfall data. Typical months, which are April, August, and December, were found and allowed us to describe the dynamical behavior of ATL outbreaks. These results were tested at 95% confidence level. We concluded that the variability of rainfall would not be enough to justify the epidemic outbreaks of ATL in the period 1997-2000, but it consistently explains the situation observed in the years 2002 and 2004. Deforestation activities occurred in this region could explain epidemic peaks observed in both years and also during the entire time of observation except in 2005-2007.

Comparação das respostas autonomicas e cardiorrespiratorias de homens e mulheres de meia-idade antes e apos treinamento fisico aerobio

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Ihwg-μnir: A Miniaturised Near-infrared Gas Sensor Based On Substrate-integrated Hollow Waveguides Coupled To A Micro-nir-spectrophotometer.

A miniaturised gas analyser is described and evaluated based on the use of a substrate-integrated hollow waveguide (iHWG) coupled to a microsized near-infrared spectrophotometer comprising a linear variable filter and an array of InGaAs detectors. This gas sensing system was applied to analyse surrogate samples of natural fuel gas containing methane, ethane, propane and butane, quantified by using multivariate regression models based on partial least square (PLS) algorithms and Savitzky-Golay 1(st) derivative data preprocessing. The external validation of the obtained models reveals root mean square errors of prediction of 0.37, 0.36, 0.67 and 0.37% (v/v), for methane, ethane, propane and butane, respectively. The developed sensing system provides particularly rapid response times upon composition changes of the gaseous sample (approximately 2 s) due the minute volume of the iHWG-based measurement cell. The sensing system developed in this study is fully portable with a hand-held sized analyser footprint, and thus ideally suited for field analysis. Last but not least, the obtained results corroborate the potential of NIR-iHWG analysers for monitoring the quality of natural gas and petrochemical gaseous products.

Petroleomics By Electrospray Ionization Ft-icr Mass Spectrometry Coupled To Partial Least Squares With Variable Selection Methods: Prediction Of The Total Acid Number Of Crude Oils.

Negative-ion mode electrospray ionization, ESI(-), with Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) was coupled to a Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression and variable selection methods to estimate the total acid number (TAN) of Brazilian crude oil samples. Generally, ESI(-)-FT-ICR mass spectra present a power of resolution of ca. 500,000 and a mass accuracy less than 1 ppm, producing a data matrix containing over 5700 variables per sample. These variables correspond to heteroatom-containing species detected as deprotonated molecules, [M - H](-) ions, which are identified primarily as naphthenic acids, phenols and carbazole analog species. The TAN values for all samples ranged from 0.06 to 3.61 mg of KOH g(-1). To facilitate the spectral interpretation, three methods of variable selection were studied: variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least squares (iPLS) and elimination of uninformative variables (UVE). The UVE method seems to be more appropriate for selecting important variables, reducing the dimension of the variables to 183 and producing a root mean square error of prediction of 0.32 mg of KOH g(-1). By reducing the size of the data, it was possible to relate the selected variables with their corresponding molecular formulas, thus identifying the main chemical species responsible for the TAN values.

Self-reported Diabetes In Older People: Comparison Of Prevalences And Control Measures.

The objective of this study was to analyze the prevalence of diabetes in older people and the adopted control measures. Data regarding older diabetic individuals who participated in the Health Surveys conducted in the Municipality of Sao Paulo, SP, ISA-Capital, in 2003 and 2008, which were cross-sectional studies, were analyzed. Prevalences and confidence intervals were compared between 2003 and 2008, according to sociodemographic variables. The combination of the databases was performed when the confidence intervals overlapped. The Chi-square (level of significance of 5%) and the Pearson's Chi-square (Rao-Scott) tests were performed. The variables without overlap between the confidence intervals were not tested. The age of the older adults was 60-69 years. The majority were women, Caucasian, with an income of between > 0.5 and 2.5 times the minimum salary and low levels of schooling. The prevalence of diabetes was 17.6% (95%CI 14.9;20.6) in 2003 and 20.1% (95%CI 17.3;23.1) in 2008, which indicates a growth over this period (p at the limit of significance). The most prevalent measure adopted by the older adults to control diabetes was hypoglycemic agents, followed by diet. Physical activity was not frequent, despite the significant differences observed between 2003 and 2008 results. The use of public health services to control diabetes was significantly higher in older individuals with lower income and lower levels of education. Diabetes is a complex and challenging disease for patients and the health systems. Measures that encourage health promotion practices are necessary because they presented a smaller proportion than the use of hypoglycemic agents. Public health policies should be implemented, and aimed mainly at older individuals with low income and schooling levels. These changes are essential to improve the health condition of older diabetic patients.

Atomic Charge Transfer-counter Polarization Effects Determine Infrared Ch Intensities Of Hydrocarbons: A Quantum Theory Of Atoms In Molecules Model.

Atomic charge transfer-counter polarization effects determine most of the infrared fundamental CH intensities of simple hydrocarbons, methane, ethylene, ethane, propyne, cyclopropane and allene. The quantum theory of atoms in molecules/charge-charge flux-dipole flux model predicted the values of 30 CH intensities ranging from 0 to 123 km mol(-1) with a root mean square (rms) error of only 4.2 km mol(-1) without including a specific equilibrium atomic charge term. Sums of the contributions from terms involving charge flux and/or dipole flux averaged 20.3 km mol(-1), about ten times larger than the average charge contribution of 2.0 km mol(-1). The only notable exceptions are the CH stretching and bending intensities of acetylene and two of the propyne vibrations for hydrogens bound to sp hybridized carbon atoms. Calculations were carried out at four quantum levels, MP2/6-311++G(3d,3p), MP2/cc-pVTZ, QCISD/6-311++G(3d,3p) and QCISD/cc-pVTZ. The results calculated at the QCISD level are the most accurate among the four with root mean square errors of 4.7 and 5.0 km mol(-1) for the 6-311++G(3d,3p) and cc-pVTZ basis sets. These values are close to the estimated aggregate experimental error of the hydrocarbon intensities, 4.0 km mol(-1). The atomic charge transfer-counter polarization effect is much larger than the charge effect for the results of all four quantum levels. Charge transfer-counter polarization effects are expected to also be important in vibrations of more polar molecules for which equilibrium charge contributions can be large.

Assessment Of Sleep Bruxism, Orthodontic Treatment Need, Orofacial Dysfunctions And Salivary Biomarkers In Asthmatic Children.

To evaluate the sleep bruxism, malocclusions, orofacial dysfunctions and salivary levels of cortisol and alpha-amylase in asthmatic children. 108 7-9-yr-old children were selected from Policlinic Santa Teresinha Doutor Antonio Haddad Dib (asthmatics, n=53) and from public schools (controls, n=55), Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. Sleep bruxism diagnosis was confirmed by parental report of grinding sounds and the presence of shiny and polish facets on incisors and/or first permanent molars. The index of orthodontic treatment need was used for occlusion evaluation. Orofacial dysfunctions were evaluated using the nordic orofacial test-screening (NOT-S). Salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase were expressed as awakening response (AR), calculated as the difference between levels immediately after awakening and 30min after waking, and diurnal decline (DD), calculated as the difference between levels at 30min after waking and at bedtime. Data were analyzed using Shapiro-Wilk/Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Chi-square, unpaired t test/Mann-Whitney and paired t/Wilcoxon tests. Sleep bruxism was more prevalent in children with asthma than controls (47.2% vs. 27.3%, p<0.05). Asthmatics had higher scores of NOT-S total and interview (p<0.05). Dysfunctions on sensory function and chewing and swallowing were more frequent in asthmatics (p<0.05). Salivary cortisol AR on weekend was significantly higher for asthmatics (p<0.05). Salivary cortisol DD was significantly higher on weekday than weekend for controls (p<0.05). There were no significant differences in alpha-amylase values in and between groups. The presence of asthma in children was associated with sleep bruxism, negative perception of sensory, chewing and swallowing functions, and higher concentrations of salivary cortisol on weekend.

Comparing Near-infrared Conventional Diffuse Reflectance Spectroscopy And Hyperspectral Imaging For Determination Of The Bulk Properties Of Solid Samples By Multivariate Regression: Determination Of Mooney Viscosity And Plasticity Indices Of Natural Rubber.

Conventional reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) and hyperspectral imaging (HI) in the near-infrared region (1000-2500 nm) are evaluated and compared, using, as the case study, the determination of relevant properties related to the quality of natural rubber. Mooney viscosity (MV) and plasticity indices (PI) (PI0 - original plasticity, PI30 - plasticity after accelerated aging, and PRI - the plasticity retention index after accelerated aging) of rubber were determined using multivariate regression models. Two hundred and eighty six samples of rubber were measured using conventional and hyperspectral near-infrared imaging reflectance instruments in the range of 1000-2500 nm. The sample set was split into regression (n = 191) and external validation (n = 95) sub-sets. Three instruments were employed for data acquisition: a line scanning hyperspectral camera and two conventional FT-NIR spectrometers. Sample heterogeneity was evaluated using hyperspectral images obtained with a resolution of 150 × 150 μm and principal component analysis. The probed sample area (5 cm(2); 24,000 pixels) to achieve representativeness was found to be equivalent to the average of 6 spectra for a 1 cm diameter probing circular window of one FT-NIR instrument. The other spectrophotometer can probe the whole sample in only one measurement. The results show that the rubber properties can be determined with very similar accuracy and precision by Partial Least Square (PLS) regression models regardless of whether HI-NIR or conventional FT-NIR produce the spectral datasets. The best Root Mean Square Errors of Prediction (RMSEPs) of external validation for MV, PI0, PI30, and PRI were 4.3, 1.8, 3.4, and 5.3%, respectively. Though the quantitative results provided by the three instruments can be considered equivalent, the hyperspectral imaging instrument presents a number of advantages, being about 6 times faster than conventional bulk spectrometers, producing robust spectral data by ensuring sample representativeness, and minimizing the effect of the presence of contaminants.

Influencia de diferentes informações quanto ao tempo de realização do exercicio sobre a atividade eletromiografica e consumo de oxigenio em ciclistas

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Estatística aplicada à química: dez dúvidas comuns

Ten common doubts of chemistry students and professionals about their statistical applications are discussed. The use of the N-1 denominator instead of N is described for the standard deviation. The statistical meaning of the denominators of the root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) and root mean square error of validation (RMSEV) are given for researchers using multivariate calibration methods. The reason why scientists and engineers use the average instead of the median is explained. Several problematic aspects about regression and correlation are treated. The popular use of triplicate experiments in teaching and research laboratories is seen to have its origin in statistical confidence intervals. Nonparametric statistics and bootstrapping methods round out the discussion.

Da natureza do espaço ao espaço da natureza : reflexões sobre a relação corpo-natureza em parque publicos urbanos

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

Relationship Between Orofacial Function, Dentofacial Morphology, And Bite Force In Young Subjects.

The aim was to evaluate the relationship between orofacial function, dentofacial morphology, and bite force in young subjects. Three hundred and sixteen subjects were divided according to dentition stage (early, intermediate, and late mixed and permanent dentition). Orofacial function was screened using the Nordic Orofacial Test-Screening (NOT-S). Orthodontic treatment need, bite force, lateral and frontal craniofacial dimensions and presence of sleep bruxism were also assessed. The results were submitted to descriptive statistics, normality and correlation tests, analysis of variance, and multiple linear regression to test the relationship between NOT-S scores and the studied independent variables. The variance of NOT-S scores between groups was not significant. The evaluation of the variables that significantly contributed to NOT-S scores variation showed that age and presence of bruxism related to higher NOT-S total scores, while the increase in overbite measurement and presence of closed lip posture related to lower scores. Bite force did not show a significant relationship with scores of orofacial dysfunction. No significant correlations between craniofacial dimensions and NOT-S scores were observed. Age and sleep bruxism were related to higher NOT-S scores, while the increase in overbite measurement and closed lip posture contributed to lower scores of orofacial dysfunction.

Morfoanatomia da raiz tuberosa de Vernonia oxylepis Sch. Bip. in Mart. ex Baker - Asteraceae

Several native herbaceous and subshrub species native to the Cerrado in Brazil are geophytes, that is, they survive the unfavorable dry season and low temperatures, that sometimes coincide with fire, with only the underground system intact. Vernonia oxylepis is one of these species and the aim of this study was to describe the morpho-anatomy of the tuberous root and bud formation on this structure. The main axis of this root is perpendicular to the soil surface, and from which aerial shoots arise periodically throughout the life cycle. On the upper portion of the root, self-grafting of the shoots occurs. The root stores lipids and fructans, exhibits contraction and produces reparatory buds; adventitious buds arise from proliferated pericycle. These characteristics may be related to adaptation of this species to conditions in the Cerrado.

Autoconceito e capacidades fisicas de idosos depessivos e não depressivos participantes de um programa de atividade fisica de longa duração

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física