8 resultados para Bayesian
em Repositório da Produção Científica e Intelectual da Unicamp
Resumo:
Ochnaceae s.str. (Malpighiales) are a pantropical family of about 500 species and 27 genera of almost exclusively woody plants. Infrafamilial classification and relationships have been controversial partially due to the lack of a robust phylogenetic framework. Including all genera except Indosinia and Perissocarpa and DNA sequence data for five DNA regions (ITS, matK, ndhF, rbcL, trnL-F), we provide for the first time a nearly complete molecular phylogenetic analysis of Ochnaceae s.l. resolving most of the phylogenetic backbone of the family. Based on this, we present a new classification of Ochnaceae s.l., with Medusagynoideae and Quiinoideae included as subfamilies and the former subfamilies Ochnoideae and Sauvagesioideae recognized at the rank of tribe. Our data support a monophyletic Ochneae, but Sauvagesieae in the traditional circumscription is paraphyletic because Testulea emerges as sister to the rest of Ochnoideae, and the next clade shows Luxemburgia+Philacra as sister group to the remaining Ochnoideae. To avoid paraphyly, we classify Luxemburgieae and Testuleeae as new tribes. The African genus Lophira, which has switched between subfamilies (here tribes) in past classifications, emerges as sister to all other Ochneae. Thus, endosperm-free seeds and ovules with partly to completely united integuments (resulting in an apparently single integument) are characters that unite all members of that tribe. The relationships within its largest clade, Ochnineae (former Ochneae), are poorly resolved, but former Ochninae (Brackenridgea, Ochna) are polyphyletic. Within Sauvagesieae, the genus Sauvagesia in its broad circumscription is polyphyletic as Sauvagesia serrata is sister to a clade of Adenarake, Sauvagesia spp., and three other genera. Within Quiinoideae, in contrast to former phylogenetic hypotheses, Lacunaria and Touroulia form a clade that is sister to Quiina. Bayesian ancestral state reconstructions showed that zygomorphic flowers with adaptations to buzz-pollination (poricidal anthers), a syncarpous gynoecium (a near-apocarpous gynoecium evolved independently in Quiinoideae and Ochninae), numerous ovules, septicidal capsules, and winged seeds with endosperm are the ancestral condition in Ochnoideae. Although in some lineages poricidal anthers were lost secondarily, the evolution of poricidal superstructures secured the maintenance of buzz-pollination in some of these genera, indicating a strong selective pressure on keeping that specialized pollination system.
Resumo:
New DNA-based predictive tests for physical characteristics and inference of ancestry are highly informative tools that are being increasingly used in forensic genetic analysis. Two eye colour prediction models: a Bayesian classifier - Snipper and a multinomial logistic regression (MLR) system for the Irisplex assay, have been described for the analysis of unadmixed European populations. Since multiple SNPs in combination contribute in varying degrees to eye colour predictability in Europeans, it is likely that these predictive tests will perform in different ways amongst admixed populations that have European co-ancestry, compared to unadmixed Europeans. In this study we examined 99 individuals from two admixed South American populations comparing eye colour versus ancestry in order to reveal a direct correlation of light eye colour phenotypes with European co-ancestry in admixed individuals. Additionally, eye colour prediction following six prediction models, using varying numbers of SNPs and based on Snipper and MLR, were applied to the study populations. Furthermore, patterns of eye colour prediction have been inferred for a set of publicly available admixed and globally distributed populations from the HGDP-CEPH panel and 1000 Genomes databases with a special emphasis on admixed American populations similar to those of the study samples.
Resumo:
Garlic is a spice and a medicinal plant; hence, there is an increasing interest in 'developing' new varieties with different culinary properties or with high content of nutraceutical compounds. Phenotypic traits and dominant molecular markers are predominantly used to evaluate the genetic diversity of garlic clones. However, 24 SSR markers (codominant) specific for garlic are available in the literature, fostering germplasm researches. In this study, we genotyped 130 garlic accessions from Brazil and abroad using 17 polymorphic SSR markers to assess the genetic diversity and structure. This is the first attempt to evaluate a large set of accessions maintained by Brazilian institutions. A high level of redundancy was detected in the collection (50 % of the accessions represented eight haplotypes). However, non-redundant accessions presented high genetic diversity. We detected on average five alleles per locus, Shannon index of 1.2, HO of 0.5, and HE of 0.6. A core collection was set with 17 accessions, covering 100 % of the alleles with minimum redundancy. Overall FST and D values indicate a strong genetic structure within accessions. Two major groups identified by both model-based (Bayesian approach) and hierarchical clustering (UPGMA dendrogram) techniques were coherent with the classification of accessions according to maturity time (growth cycle): early-late and midseason accessions. Assessing genetic diversity and structure of garlic collections is the first step towards an efficient management and conservation of accessions in genebanks, as well as to advance future genetic studies and improvement of garlic worldwide.
Resumo:
Health economic evaluations require estimates of expected survival from patients receiving different interventions, often over a lifetime. However, data on the patients of interest are typically only available for a much shorter follow-up time, from randomised trials or cohorts. Previous work showed how to use general population mortality to improve extrapolations of the short-term data, assuming a constant additive or multiplicative effect on the hazards for all-cause mortality for study patients relative to the general population. A more plausible assumption may be a constant effect on the hazard for the specific cause of death targeted by the treatments. To address this problem, we use independent parametric survival models for cause-specific mortality among the general population. Because causes of death are unobserved for the patients of interest, a polyhazard model is used to express their all-cause mortality as a sum of latent cause-specific hazards. Assuming proportional cause-specific hazards between the general and study populations then allows us to extrapolate mortality of the patients of interest to the long term. A Bayesian framework is used to jointly model all sources of data. By simulation, we show that ignoring cause-specific hazards leads to biased estimates of mean survival when the proportion of deaths due to the cause of interest changes through time. The methods are applied to an evaluation of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for the prevention of sudden cardiac death among patients with cardiac arrhythmia. After accounting for cause-specific mortality, substantial differences are seen in estimates of life years gained from implantable cardioverter defibrillators.
Resumo:
Often in biomedical research, we deal with continuous (clustered) proportion responses ranging between zero and one quantifying the disease status of the cluster units. Interestingly, the study population might also consist of relatively disease-free as well as highly diseased subjects, contributing to proportion values in the interval [0, 1]. Regression on a variety of parametric densities with support lying in (0, 1), such as beta regression, can assess important covariate effects. However, they are deemed inappropriate due to the presence of zeros and/or ones. To evade this, we introduce a class of general proportion density, and further augment the probabilities of zero and one to this general proportion density, controlling for the clustering. Our approach is Bayesian and presents a computationally convenient framework amenable to available freeware. Bayesian case-deletion influence diagnostics based on q-divergence measures are automatic from the Markov chain Monte Carlo output. The methodology is illustrated using both simulation studies and application to a real dataset from a clinical periodontology study.
Resumo:
Passiflora species are distributed throughout Latin America, and Brazil and Colombia serve as the centers of diversity for this genus. We performed cross-species amplification to evaluate 109 microsatellite loci in 14 Passiflora species and estimated the diversity and genetic structure of Passiflora cincinnata, Passiflora setaceae and Passiflora edulis. A total of 127 accessions, including 85 accessions of P. edulis, a commercial species, and 42 accessions of 13 wild species, were examined. The cross-species amplification was effective for obtaining microsatellite loci (average cross-amplification of 70%). The average number of alleles per locus (five) was relatively low, and the average diversity ranged from 0.52 in P. cincinnata to 0.32 in P. setacea. The Bayesian analyses indicated that the P. cincinnata and P. setacea accessions were distributed into two groups, and the P. edulis accessions were distributed into five groups. Private alleles were identified, and suggestions for core collections are presented. Further collections are necessary, and the information generated may be useful for breeding and conservation.
Resumo:
The evolution and population dynamics of avian coronaviruses (AvCoVs) remain underexplored. In the present study, in-depth phylogenetic and Bayesian phylogeographic studies were conducted to investigate the evolutionary dynamics of AvCoVs detected in wild and synanthropic birds. A total of 500 samples, including tracheal and cloacal swabs collected from 312 wild birds belonging to 42 species, were analysed using molecular assays. A total of 65 samples (13%) from 22 bird species were positive for AvCoV. Molecular evolution analyses revealed that the sequences from samples collected in Brazil did not cluster with any of the AvCoV S1 gene sequences deposited in the GenBank database. Bayesian framework analysis estimated an AvCoV strain from Sweden (1999) as the most recent common ancestor of the AvCoVs detected in this study. Furthermore, the analysis inferred an increase in the AvCoV dynamic demographic population in different wild and synanthropic bird species, suggesting that birds may be potential new hosts responsible for spreading this virus.
Resumo:
A common breeding strategy is to carry out basic studies to investigate the hypothesis of a single gene controlling the trait (major gene) with or without polygenes of minor effect. In this study we used Bayesian inference to fit genetic additive-dominance models of inheritance to plant breeding experiments with multiple generations. Normal densities with different means, according to the major gene genotype, were considered in a linear model in which the design matrix of the genetic effects had unknown coefficients (which were estimated in individual basis). An actual data set from an inheritance study of partenocarpy in zucchini (Cucurbita pepo L.) was used for illustration. Model fitting included posterior probabilities for all individual genotypes. Analysis agrees with results in the literature but this approach was far more efficient than previous alternatives assuming that design matrix was known for the generations. Partenocarpy in zucchini is controlled by a major gene with important additive effect and partial dominance.