The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba

A large influenza epidemic took place in Havana during the winter of 1988. The epidemiologic surveillance unit of the Pedro Kouri Institute of Tropical Medicine detected the begining of the epidemic wave. The Rvachev-Baroyan mathematical model of the geographic spread of an epidemic was used to forecast this epidemic under routine conditions of the public health system. The expected number of individuals who would attend outpatient services, because of influenza-like illness, was calculated and communicated to the health authorities within enough time to permit the introduction of available control measures. The approximate date of the epidemic peak, the daily expected number of individuals attending medical services, and the approximate time of the end of the epidemic wave were estimated. The prediction error was 12%. The model was sufficienty accurate to warrant its use as a pratical forecasting tool in the Cuban public health system.

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Relation between the behaviors of P-wave and QT dispersions in elderly patients with heart failure

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relation between P-wave and QT dispersions in elderly patients with heart failure. METHODS: Forty-seven elderly patients (75.6±6 years) with stable heart failure in NYHA functional classes II or III and with ejection fractions of 37±6% underwent body surface mapping to analyze P-wave and QT dispersions. The degree of correlation between P-wave and QT dispersions was assessed, and P-wave dispersion values in patients with QT dispersion greater than and smaller than 100 ms were compared. RESULTS: The mean values of P-wave and QT dispersions were 54±14 ms and 68±27 ms, respectively. The correlation between the 2 variables was R=0.41 (p=0.04). In patients with QT dispersion values > 100 ms, P-wave dispersion was significantly greater than in those with QT dispersion values < 100 ms (58±16 vs 53±12 ms, p=0.04 ). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that, in elderly patients with heart failure, a correlation between the values of P-wave and QT dispersions exists. These findings may have etiopathogenic, pathophysiologic, prognostic, and therapeutic implications, which should be investigated in other studies.

T-wave alternans: desempenho clínico, limitações, metodologias de análise

Reconhecer com precisão indivíduos com maior risco imediato de morte súbita cardíaca (MSC) ainda é uma questão em aberto. A natureza fortuita dos eventos cardiovasculares agudos não parece se adequar ao conhecido modelo de indução de taquicardia/fibrilação ventricular por um gatilho em sincronia a um substrato arritmogênico estático. Quanto ao mecanismo da MSC, uma instabilidade elétrica dinâmica explicaria melhor a raridade da associação simultânea de um gatilho certo a um substrato cardíaco apropriado. Diversos estudos tentaram medir essa instabilidade elétrica cardíaca (ou um equivalente válido) em uma sequência de batimentos cardíacos no ECG. Dentre os mecanismos possíveis podemos citar o prolongamento do QT, dispersão do QT, potenciais tardios, alternância de onda T ou T-wave alternans (TWA), e turbulência da frequência cardíaca. Este artigo se atém em particular ao papel da TWA no panorama atual da estratificação de risco cardíaco. Os achados sobre TWA ainda são heterogêneos, variando de um desempenho prognóstico muito bom até um quase nulo, dependendo da população clínica observada e protocolo clínico usado. Para preencher as atuais lacunas no conhecimento sobre TWA, profissionais médicos e pesquisadores devem explorar melhor as características técnicas das diversas tecnologias disponíveis para a avaliação de TWA e atentar ao fato de que os valores de TWA respondem a diversos outros fatores, além de medicamentos. Informações sobre mecanismos celulares e subcelulares da TWA estão fora do escopo deste artigo, mas são referenciados alguns dos principais trabalhos sobre este tópico, com o intuito de auxiliar no entendimento dos conceitos e fatos cobertos neste artigo.

The three phases of the ensemble forecasting of niche models: geographic range and shifts in climatically suitable areas of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae)

Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

Determination of 5-aminosalicylic acid in pharmaceutical formulations by square wave voltammetry at pencil graphite electrodes

An analytical method for the determination of the anti-inflammatory drug 5-aminosalicylic acid (5-ASA) in pharmaceutical formulations using square wave voltammetry at pencil graphite electrodes was developed. After the optimization of the experimental conditions, calibration curves were obtained in the linear concentration range from 9.78 × 10-7 to 7.25 × 10-5 mol L-1 resulting in a limit of detection of 2.12 ± 0.05 x 10-8 mol L-1. Statistical tests showed that the concentrations of 5-ASA in commercial tablets and enemas obtained with the proposed voltammetric method agreed with HPLC values at a 95% confidence level.

Time-series forecasting of pollutant concentration levels using particle swarm optimization and artificial neural networks

This study evaluates the application of an intelligent hybrid system for time-series forecasting of atmospheric pollutant concentration levels. The proposed method consists of an artificial neural network combined with a particle swarm optimization algorithm. The method not only searches relevant time lags for the correct characterization of the time series, but also determines the best neural network architecture. An experimental analysis is performed using four real time series and the results are shown in terms of six performance measures. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methodology achieves a fair prediction of the presented pollutant time series by using compact networks.

A simple square-wave voltammetric method for the determination of scopolamine in pharmaceuticals using a boron-doped diamond electrode

A simple procedure is described for the determination of scopolamine by square-wave voltammetry using a cathodically pretreated boron-doped diamond electrode. Cyclic voltammetry studies indicate that the oxidation of scopolamine is irreversible at a peak potential of 1.59 V (vs. Ag/AgCl (3.0 mol L-1 KCl)) in a 0.50 mol L-1 sulfuric acid solution. Under optimized conditions, the analytical curve obtained was linear (r = 0.9996) for the scopolamine concentration range of 1.0 to 110 µmol L-1, with a detection limit of 0.84 µmol L-1. The method was successfully applied to the determination of scopolamine in pharmaceutical formulations with minimum sample preparation.

Interaction study of moxifloxacin with Cu(II) ion using square-wave voltammetry and its application in the determination in tablets

This work presents an electroanalytical method for the determination of moxifloxacin (MOXI) in tablets by its interaction with Cu(II) ion and subsequent electrochemical reduction at hanging mercury drop electrode (HMDE). A well-defined reduction peak at -0.21 V vs. Ag/AgCl in Phosphate buffer 0.04 mol L-1 pH 8.0 was observed for the complex reduction MOXI-Cu(II), using square-wave voltammetry (SWV). Using a 10 s of accumulation time at -0.40 V was found a limit detection of 3.60x10-8 mol l-1. The obtained results have shown good agreement with those obtained by spectrophotometric method.

Determination of hydroquinone in a square wave voltammetry procedure using a graphite-polyurethane composite electrode

In order to a better characterization of a graphite-polyurethane composite intended to be used as a voltammetric sensor, the performance in a square wave voltammetric procedure was investigated. Using hydroquinone (HQ) as a probe, the electrode showed to be useful in square wave voltammetry with limit of detection of 0.28 µmol L-1, with recoveries between 99.1 and 101.5%. The results of the proposed method agreed with HPLC ones within 95% confidence level.

Determinação do módulo de elasticidade em madeira laminada colada por meio de ensaio não destrutivo (''stress wave timer'')

As vigas estruturais de madeira são formas racionais do emprego da madeira na construção de estruturas, sendo obtidas pela associação de peças serradas e permitindo a utilização de tábuas com seções e comprimentos variados, além de combinações com madeira de qualidade diferenciada. Para atingir a resistência máxima de uma viga de madeira laminada colada, pode-se utilizar a classificação mecânica das peças por meio dinâmico. O objetivo deste estudo foi estabelecer correlação entre os métodos estático e dinâmico de classificação de vigas de madeira laminada. O trabalho foi desenvolvido com o emprego de peças de madeira serrada de Pinus taeda e adesivo resorcina fenolformaldeído. O processo de fabricação das vigas envolveu a classificação das peças, usinagem de emendas, formação das lamelas, montagem e prensagem das vigas. Já os ensaios envolveram a determinação do módulo de elasticidade por meio do ''stress wave method'' e de uma máquina universal de ensaios. Os resultados foram analisados pela análise de regressão do estabelecimento da equação de ajuste de correlação. O sistema de classificação visual utilizado na seleção de peças foi insuficiente para se atingirem os valores máximos de módulo de elasticidade; o posicionamento correto das lamelas por meio do método dinâmico de classificação teve como consequência direta o aumento do módulo de elasticidade da viga, e houve baixa correlação entre as formas de obtenção do módulo de elasticidade das vigas, não sendo possível a elaboração de equação adequada entre os métodos testados.

Estimativas das propriedades de compostos LVL produzidos com paricá (Schizolobium amazonicum Huber ex Ducke) por meio de stress wave

Foram avaliadas as propriedades físicas e mecânicas de compósitos LVL produzidos com a madeira de paricá (Schizolobium amazonicum Huber ex. Ducke), por meio de Stress Wave Timer. Os compósitos foram confeccionados em laboratório, dos quais foram retiradas amostras, que foram inicialmente destinadas à realização dos ensaios não destrutivos. Todas as amostras, com dimensões de 2,2 × 2,2 × 40 cm, foram ensaiadas, não destrutivamente, com a propagação de ondas nos sentidos flatwise e edgewise. Em sequência, as mesmas amostras foram destinadas à confecção de subamostras, para realização dos ensaios destrutivos, físicos (absorção de água, inchamento em espessura e inchamento residual) e mecânicos (resistência e rigidez à flexão estática flatwise; resistência e rigidez à flexão estática edgewise; resistência à compressão paralela e resistência ao cisalhamento paralelo e perpendicular). A velocidade de propagação das ondas (V0) e o módulo de elasticidade dinâmico (Emd), obtidos com o auxílio do Stress Wave, foram utilizados para elaboração de modelos de predição das propriedades avaliadas. Os resultados indicaram que o Stress Wave Timer apresenta resultados satisfatórios para predição das propriedades mecânicas de compósitos LVL. Com relação às propriedades físicas, embora tenham sido verificados modelos com ajustes significativos, constatou-se limitação dessa ferramenta para predição desses parâmetros. Contudo, considerando ambas as propriedades, físicas e mecânicas, os melhores ajustes foram observados em amostras ensaiadas com a propagação de ondas no sentido edgewise e com o uso da variável independente Emd.

Effect of a simulated heat wave in thermal and aerial environment broiler-rearing environment

ABSTRACT Global warming increases the occurrence of events such as extreme heat waves. Research on thermal and air conditions affecting broiler-rearing environment are important to evaluate the animal welfare under extreme heat aiming mitigation measures. This study aimed at evaluating the effect of a simulated heat wave, in a climatic chamber, on the thermal and air environment of 42-day-old broilers. One hundred and sixty broilers were housed and reared for 42 days in a climatic chamber; the animals were divided into eight pens. Heat wave simulation was performed on the 42nd day, the period of great impact and data sampling. The analyzed variables were room and litter temperatures, relative humidity, concentrations of oxygen, carbon monoxide and ammonia at each pen. These variables were assessed each two hours, starting at 8 am, simulating a day heating up to 4 pm, when it is reached the maximum temperature. By the results, we concluded that increasing room temperatures promoted a proportional raise in litter temperatures, contributing to ammonia volatilization. In addition, oxygen concentrations decreased with increasing temperatures; and the carbon monoxide was only observed at temperatures above 27.0 °C, relative humidity higher than 88.4% and litter temperatures superior to 30.3 °C.

Evaluation of left ventricular diastolic echocardiographic parameters in healthy dogs by pulsed-wave Doppler

Left ventricular diastolic dysfunction plays an important role on heart failure progression. In order to obtain additional reference values of left ventricular diastolic parameters and investigate influence of common variables, peak E wave (peak E), peak A wave (peak A), E/A ratio (E/A), E wave deceleration time (EDT) and isovolumic relaxation time (IRVT) were studied in 40 clinically healthy dogs, by pulsed wave Doppler. The following values were obtained: peak E = 0.747 ± 0.117 m/s, peak A = 0.487 ± 0.062 m/s, E/A = 1.533 ± 0.198, EDT = 88.7 ± 9.2 ms and IRVT = 0.080 ± 0.009 s. Some parameters were influenced by heart rate (peak E, peak A and IRVT), by age (peak A and E/A) and by body weight (TRIV). Gender influence was absent. Values obtained can be used as reference for canine specimens but its interpretation should consider on the influence of related variables.