Análisis del credit scoring

El problema de la morosidad está cobrándose una gran importancia en los países desarrollados. En este trabajo realizamos un análisis de la capacidad predictiva de dos modelos paramétricos y uno no paramétrico abordando, en este último, el problema del sobreaprendizaje mediante la validación cruzada que, muy habitualmente, se obvia en este tipo de estudios. Además proponemos la distinción de tres tipos de solicitudes dependiendo de su probabilidad cumplimiento: conceder, no conceder (de forma automática), y dudoso y, por consiguiente, proceder a su estudio manual por parte del personal bancario.

ABOUT PSYCHOLOGICAL VARIABLES IN APPLICATION SCORING MODELS

The purpose of this study is to investigate the contribution of psychological variables and scales suggested by Economic Psychology in predicting individuals’ default. Therefore, a sample of 555 individuals completed a self-completion questionnaire, which was composed of psychological variables and scales. By adopting the methodology of the logistic regression, the following psychological and behavioral characteristics were found associated with the group of individuals in default: a) negative dimensions related to money (suffering, inequality and conflict); b) high scores on the self-efficacy scale, probably indicating a greater degree of optimism and over-confidence; c) buyers classified as compulsive; d) individuals who consider it necessary to give gifts to children and friends on special dates, even though many people consider this a luxury; e) problems of self-control identified by individuals who drink an average of more than four glasses of alcoholic beverage a day.

A versão simplificada do Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System e seu valor prognóstico

O estudo avalia a capacidade do Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System (TISS-28) de discriminar pacientes internados em UTI, prováveis de morrer daqueles possíveis de sobreviver e estabelecer a pontuação limiar para alta probabilidade de morte. Os resultados, obtidos da amostra de 200 pacientes internados em 14 UTIs do Município de São Paulo, mostraram que o TISS-28 apresentou associação com mortalidade (p=0,0001). O ponto de corte estabelecido foi 21. Encontrou-se que 80,88% dos que morreram tinham pontuação do TISS-28 maior ou igual, e 68,18% dos sobreviventes tinham pontuação menor que 21. Além disso, quanto ao valor prognóstico do TISS-28, constatou-se acurácia de 0,72.

Therapeutic intervention scoring system-28 (TISS-28): diretrizes para aplicação

O Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System-28 (TISS-28) é um instrumento que permite dimensionar carga de trabalho de enfermagem em Unidade de Terapia Intensiva e estimar gravidade da doença. Apresenta-se nesta publicação as definições operacionais para sua aplicação, proposta por um grupo de especialistas na área, com vistas a uniformizar o significado de cada um dos itens e evitar vieses de interpretação.

Adaptação para a língua portuguesa e validação do Lunney Scoring Method for Rating Accuracy of Nursing Diagnoses

O Lunney Scoring Method for Rating Accuracy of Nursing Diagnoses (LSM) é uma escala de diferencial semântico que foi desenvolvida por Lunney para estimar a acurácia dos diagnósticos de enfermagem. O objetivo deste estudo foi adaptar o LSM para a língua portuguesa e avaliar as sua propriedades psicométricas. A escala original foi traduzida para o português, revertida para o inglês e as duas versões em inglês foram comparadas para ajustar a versão em português que passou a ser denominada Escala de Acurácia de Diagnóstico de Enfermagem de Lunney - EADE. Quatro enfermeiras foram orientadas sobre a EADE e a aplicaram em 159 diagnósticos formulados para 26 pacientes de três estudos primários com base nos registros de entrevista e exame físico de cada paciente. Os índices Kappa de Cohen mostraram ausência de concordância entre as avaliadoras, o que indica que o instrumento adaptado não tem confiabilidade satisfatória. Em virtude desse resultado, não foi realizada estimativa de validade.

Severity assessment of acute pancreatitis: applying Marshall scoring system

Objective: To analyze the effectiveness of the Marshall scoring system to evaluate the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods : We performed a prospective, observational study in 39 patients with AP evaluated by the Marshall scoring system and the Ranson criteria (admission and 48 hours). We assessed the progression of the disease for seven days and compared the data of the two criteria. Results : Seven patients died during the observation period and one died afterwards. All deaths had shown failure of at least one system by the Marshall method. Conclusion : The Marshall scoring system may be used as an effective and simplified application method to assess the severity of acute pancreatitis.

Efficacy of HUMN criteria for scoring the micronucleus assay in human lymphocytes exposed to a low concentration of p,p'-DDT

The cytokinesis-block micronucleus (CBMN) assay is one of the standard cytogenetic tools employed to assess chromosomal damage subsequent to exposure to genotoxic/cytotoxic agents, and is widely applicable to plant, animal and human cells. In the present study, the CBMN assay was used to assess the baseline damage in binuclear human peripheral blood lymphocytes exposed to 25 µg/L p,p'-DDT for 1, 2, 24, and 48 h by measuring the frequency of micronuclei, nucleoplasmic bridges and nuclear buds. These new scoring criteria facilitated the detection of different types of clastogenic and aneugenic effects induced by this type of pollutant. With these criteria, CBMN can also be used to measure nucleoplasmic bridges which are considered to be consequences of chromosome rearrangements and nuclear buds which are biomarkers of altered gene amplification and gene dosage. The total number of micronuclei observed in binuclear human peripheral blood lymphocytes of the exposed samples (ranging from 32 to 47) was significantly greater (P < 0.05) than that detected in the unexposed (0 time) control sample, where the total number of micronuclei was 7. The number of nucleoplasmic bridges and nuclear buds obtained after 24 and 48 h was also significantly (P < 0.05) greater in the samples treated with p,p'-DDT than in the unexposed control samples. Thus, our results confirmed the usefulness of the new criteria applicable for the CBMN assay employed in measuring the DNA damage and its role of a sensitive cytogenetic biomarker.

Credibility, rules and power in the European Union institutions: a transactional analysis of the "Stability and Growth pact"

The credibility of the rules and the elements of power constitute fundamental keys in the analysis of the political institutions. This paper opens the "black box" of the European Union institutions and analyses the problem of credibility in the commitment of the Stability and Growth pact (SGP). This Pact (SGP) constituted a formal rule that tried to enforce budgetary discipline on the European States. Compliance with this contract could be ensured by the existence of "third party enforcement" or by the coincidence of the ex-ante and ex-post interests of the States (reputational capital). The fact is that states such as France or Germany failed to comply with the ruling and managed to avoid the application of sanctions. This article studies the transactions and the hierarchy of power that exists in the European institutions, and analyses the institutional framework included in the new European Constitution.

Trade rules and exchange rate misalignments: in search for a WTO solution

The debate on the link between trade rules and rules on exchange rates is raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs as applied by the WTO - World Trade Organization. It is divided into five sections: the first one explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, U.S. and China; the second summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of "misalignment tariffication"; the third examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth one creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a currency of the World and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The conclusions are present in the last section.