Análisis del credit scoring

El problema de la morosidad está cobrándose una gran importancia en los países desarrollados. En este trabajo realizamos un análisis de la capacidad predictiva de dos modelos paramétricos y uno no paramétrico abordando, en este último, el problema del sobreaprendizaje mediante la validación cruzada que, muy habitualmente, se obvia en este tipo de estudios. Además proponemos la distinción de tres tipos de solicitudes dependiendo de su probabilidad cumplimiento: conceder, no conceder (de forma automática), y dudoso y, por consiguiente, proceder a su estudio manual por parte del personal bancario.

ABOUT PSYCHOLOGICAL VARIABLES IN APPLICATION SCORING MODELS

The purpose of this study is to investigate the contribution of psychological variables and scales suggested by Economic Psychology in predicting individuals’ default. Therefore, a sample of 555 individuals completed a self-completion questionnaire, which was composed of psychological variables and scales. By adopting the methodology of the logistic regression, the following psychological and behavioral characteristics were found associated with the group of individuals in default: a) negative dimensions related to money (suffering, inequality and conflict); b) high scores on the self-efficacy scale, probably indicating a greater degree of optimism and over-confidence; c) buyers classified as compulsive; d) individuals who consider it necessary to give gifts to children and friends on special dates, even though many people consider this a luxury; e) problems of self-control identified by individuals who drink an average of more than four glasses of alcoholic beverage a day.

Lead, hemoglobin, zinc protoporphyrin and ferritin concentrations in children

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship of blood lead and hemoglobin, zinc protoporphyrin, and ferritin concentrations in children. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out in 136 anemic and non-anemic children from two rural villages near a lead smelter in Adrianópolis, Southern Brazil, from July to September 2001. Hemoglobin electrophoresis was performed to exclude children with hemoglobin variants and thalassemia syndromes associated with anemia. Lead was determined by atomic absorption spectrophotometry; hemoglobin by automated cell counting; zinc protoporphyrin by hematofluorometry; ferritin by chemiluminescence. Student's t-test, Mann-Whitney test, and the c² test were used to assess the significance of the differences between the variables investigated in anemic and non-anemic children. Stepwise multivariate linear regression analysis was performed using two models for anemic and non-anemic children respectively. RESULTS: Lead was negatively associated to hemoglobin (p<0.017) in the first model, and in the second model lead was positively associated to zinc protoporphyrin (p<0.004) after controlling for ferritin, age, sex, and per capita income. There was an inverse association between hemoglobin and blood lead in anemic children. It was not possible to confirm if anemic children had iron deficiency anemia or subclinical infection, considering that the majority (90.4%) had normal ferritin. CONCLUSIONS: The study detected a relationship between anemia and elevated blood lead concentrations. Further epidemiological studies are necessary to investigate the impact of iron nutritional interventions as an attempt to decrease blood lead in children.

Association of dental enamel lead levels with risk factors for environmental exposure

OBJECTIVE: To analyze household risk factors associated with high lead levels in surface dental enamel. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 160 Brazilian adolescents aged 14-18 years living in poor neighborhoods in the city of Bauru, southeastern Brazil, from August to December 2008. Body lead concentrations were assessed in surface dental enamel acid-etch microbiopsies. Dental enamel lead levels were measured by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry and phosphorus levels were measured by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry. The parents answered a questionnaire about their children's potential early (05 years old) exposure to well-known lead sources. Logistic regression was used to identify associations between dental enamel lead levels and each environmental risk factor studied. Social and familial covariables were included in the models. RESULTS: The results suggest that the adolescents studied were exposed to lead sources during their first years of life. Risk factors associated with high dental enamel lead levels were living in or close to a contaminated area (OR = 4.49; 95% CI: 1.69;11.97); and member of the household worked in the manufacturing of paints, paint pigments, ceramics or batteries (OR = 3.43; 95% CI: 1.31;9.00). Home-based use of lead-glazed ceramics, low-quality pirated toys, anticorrosive paint on gates and/or sale of used car batteries (OR = 1.31; 95% CI: 0.56;3.03) and smoking (OR = 1.66; 95% CI: 0.52;5.28) were not found to be associated with high dental enamel lead levels. CONCLUSIONS: Surface dental enamel can be used as a marker of past environmental exposure to lead and lead concentrations detected are associated to well-known sources of lead contamination.

Environmental lead poisoning among children in Porto Alegre state, Southern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of lead poisoning in children and to identify associated factors, as well as possible local sources of contamination. METHODS: A cross-sectional prevalence study conducted in 2006 with a random sample of 97 children age zero to five years from a neighborhood in Porto Alegre, Southern Brazil. Blood lead levels were measured and a questionnaire administered to collect information on sociodemographics, recycling and dwelling. A preliminary environmental evaluation was carried out with direct analysis of soil and indirect analysis of air pollution with bioindicators to identify possible sources of contamination. To analyze lead concentrations from the different collection sites, for each type of material studied, ANOVA was performed with a Brown-Forsythe adjustment for heteroscedasticity and with Dunnett's T3 procedure for multiple comparisons of unequal variances. RESULTS: Blood lead levels > 10.0 µg/dL was found in 16.5% of children. Recycling of waste at home, low father's education level, and increased age of children were associated with increase blood lead levels. High lead levels were found in soil, and there was little indication of lead air pollution. CONCLUSIONS: A high prevalence of lead poisoning was identified, and the potential sources of contamination in this community appear related to waste recylcing activities. Studies should be conducted with other populations of Brazilian children and evaluate potential sources of local and general contamination, to accurately characterize this issue in Brazil.

High levels of Mercury and Lead detected by hair analysis in two Venezuelan environments

Mercury and Lead concentrations obtained by ICP-OAS analysis of human hair from riverside communities along the Orinoco river in the Amazon state (Venezuela) were compared with those from Caracas, Venezuela. Taking into account the characteristics of these two environments and the values of the average concentrations of Mercury and Lead, baselines were established suggesting that gold mining activity near the Orinoco river is responsible for the high levels of Mercury in hair from the Amazon state, whereas automobile activity is responsible for high levels of Lead in hair in Caracas.

Obesity does not Lead to Imbalance Between Myocardial Phospholamban Phosphorylation and Dephosphorylation

Background: The activation of the beta-adrenergic system promotes G protein stimulation that, via cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP), alters the structure of protein kinase A (PKA) and leads to phospholamban (PLB) phosphorylation. This protein participates in the system that controls intracellular calcium in muscle cells, and it is the primary regulator of sarcoplasmic reticulum calcium pump activity. In obesity, the beta-adrenergic system is activated by the influence of increased leptin, therefore, resulting in higher myocardial phospholamban phosphorylation via cAMP-PKA. Objective: To investigate the involvement of proteins which regulate the degree of PLB phosphorylation due to beta-adrenergic activation in obesity. In the present study, we hypothesized that there is an imbalance between phospholamban phosphorylation and dephosphorylation, with prevalence of protein phosphorylation. Methods: Male Wistar rats were randomly distributed into two groups: control (n = 14), fed with normocaloric diet; and obese (n = 13), fed with a cycle of four unsaturated high-fat diets. Obesity was determined by the adiposity index, and protein expressions of phosphatase 1 (PP-1), PKA, PLB, phosphorylated phospholamban at serine16 (PPLB-Ser16) were assessed by Western blot. Results: Obesity caused glucose intolerance, hyperinsulinemia, hypertriglyceridemia, hyperleptinemia and did not alter the protein expression of PKA, PP-1, PLB, PPLB-Ser16. Conclusion: Obesity does not promote an imbalance between myocardial PLB phosphorylation and dephosphorylation via beta-adrenergic system.

Combination Therapy for the Cardiovascular Effects of Perinatal Lead Exposure in Young and Adult Rats

Background: Combination therapy can play a significant role in the amelioration of several toxic effects of lead (Pb) and recovery from associated cardiovascular changes. Objective: To investigate the effects of combination therapy on the cardiovascular effects of perinatal lead exposure in young and adult rats Methods: Female Wistar rats received drinking water with or without 500 ppm of Pb during pregnancy and lactation. Twenty-two- and 70-day-old rat offspring who were or were not exposed to Pb in the perinatal period received meso-dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA), L-arginine, or enalapril and a combination of these compounds for 30 additional days. Noradrenaline response curves were plotted for intact and denuded aortas from 23-, 52-, 70-, and 100-day-old rats stratified by perinatal Pb exposure (exposed/unexposed) and treatment received (treated/untreated). Results: Systolic blood pressure was evaluated and shown to be higher in the 23-, 52-, 70-, and 100-day age groups with Pb exposure than in the corresponding control age groups: 117.8 ± 3.9*, 135.2 ± 1.3*, 139.6 ± 1.6*, and 131.7 ± 2.8*, respectively and 107.1 ± 1.8, 118.8 ± 2.1, 126.1 ± 1.1, and 120.5 ± 2.2, respectively (p < 0.05). Increased reactivity to noradrenaline was observed in intact, but not denuded, aortas from 52-, 70-, and 100-day-old exposed rats, and the maximum responses (g of tension) in the respective Pb-exposed and control age groups were as follows: 3.43 ± 0.16*, 4.32 ± 0.18*, and 4.21 ± 0.23*, respectively and 2.38 ± 0.33, 3.37 ± 0.13, and 3.22 ± 0.21, respectively (p < 0.05). Conclusions: All treatments reversed the changes in vascular reactivity to noradrenaline in rats perinatally exposed to Pb. The combination therapy resulted in an earlier restoration of blood pressure in Pb-exposed rats compared with the monotherapies, except for enalapril therapy in young rats. These findings represent a new approach to the development of therapeutic protocols for the treatment of Pb-induced hypertension.

A versão simplificada do Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System e seu valor prognóstico

O estudo avalia a capacidade do Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System (TISS-28) de discriminar pacientes internados em UTI, prováveis de morrer daqueles possíveis de sobreviver e estabelecer a pontuação limiar para alta probabilidade de morte. Os resultados, obtidos da amostra de 200 pacientes internados em 14 UTIs do Município de São Paulo, mostraram que o TISS-28 apresentou associação com mortalidade (p=0,0001). O ponto de corte estabelecido foi 21. Encontrou-se que 80,88% dos que morreram tinham pontuação do TISS-28 maior ou igual, e 68,18% dos sobreviventes tinham pontuação menor que 21. Além disso, quanto ao valor prognóstico do TISS-28, constatou-se acurácia de 0,72.

Therapeutic intervention scoring system-28 (TISS-28): diretrizes para aplicação

O Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System-28 (TISS-28) é um instrumento que permite dimensionar carga de trabalho de enfermagem em Unidade de Terapia Intensiva e estimar gravidade da doença. Apresenta-se nesta publicação as definições operacionais para sua aplicação, proposta por um grupo de especialistas na área, com vistas a uniformizar o significado de cada um dos itens e evitar vieses de interpretação.

Adaptação para a língua portuguesa e validação do Lunney Scoring Method for Rating Accuracy of Nursing Diagnoses

O Lunney Scoring Method for Rating Accuracy of Nursing Diagnoses (LSM) é uma escala de diferencial semântico que foi desenvolvida por Lunney para estimar a acurácia dos diagnósticos de enfermagem. O objetivo deste estudo foi adaptar o LSM para a língua portuguesa e avaliar as sua propriedades psicométricas. A escala original foi traduzida para o português, revertida para o inglês e as duas versões em inglês foram comparadas para ajustar a versão em português que passou a ser denominada Escala de Acurácia de Diagnóstico de Enfermagem de Lunney - EADE. Quatro enfermeiras foram orientadas sobre a EADE e a aplicaram em 159 diagnósticos formulados para 26 pacientes de três estudos primários com base nos registros de entrevista e exame físico de cada paciente. Os índices Kappa de Cohen mostraram ausência de concordância entre as avaliadoras, o que indica que o instrumento adaptado não tem confiabilidade satisfatória. Em virtude desse resultado, não foi realizada estimativa de validade.

Growth of seedlings of pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan (l.) millsp), wand riverhemp (Sesbania virgata (cav.) pers.), and lead tree (Leucaena leucocephala (lam.) de wit) in an arsenic-contaminated soil

Phytoremediation strategies utilize plants to decontaminate or immobilize soil pollutants. Among soil pollutants, metalloid As is considered a primary concern as a toxic element to organisms. Arsenic concentrations in the soil result from anthropogenic activities such as: the use of pesticides (herbicides and fungicides); some fertilizers; Au, Pb, Cu and Ni mining; Fe and steel production; coal combustion; and as a bi-product during natural gas extraction. This study evaluated the potential of pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan), wand riverhemp (Sesbania virgata), and lead tree (Leucaena leucocephala) as phytoremediators of soils polluted by As. Soil samples were placed in plastic pots, incubated with different As doses (0; 50; 100 and 200 mg dm-3) and then sown with seeds of the three species. Thirty (pigeon pea) and 90 days after sowing, the plants were evaluated for height, collar diameter and dry matter of young, intermediate and basal leaves, stems and roots. Arsenic concentration was determined in different aged leaves, stems and roots to establish the translocation index (TI) between the plant root system and aerial plant components and the bioconcentration factors (BF). The evaluated species showed distinct characteristics regarding As tolerance, since the lead tree and wand riverhemp were significantly more tolerant than pigeon pea. The high As levels found in wand riverhemp roots suggest the existence of an efficient accumulation and compartmentalization mechanism in order to reduce As translocation to shoot tissues. Pigeon pea is a sensitive species and could serve as a potential bioindicator plant, whereas the other two species have potential for phytoremediation programs in As polluted areas. However, further studies are needed with longer exposure times in actual field conditions to reach definite conclusions on relative phytoremediation potentials.

Lead and zinc in the structure of organic and mineral soil components

In addition to the more reactive forms, metals can occur in the structure of minerals, and the sum of all these forms defines their total contents in different soil fractions. The isomorphic substitution of heavy metals for example alters the dimensions of the unit cell and mineral size. This study proposed a method of chemical fractionation of heavy metals, using more powerful extraction methods, to remove the organic and different mineral phases completely. Soil samples were taken from eight soil profiles (0-10, 10-20 and 20-40 cm) in a Pb mining and metallurgy area in Adrianópolis, Paraná, Brazil. The Pb and Zn concentrations were determined in the following fractions (complete phase removal in each sequential extraction): exchangeable; carbonates; organic matter; amorphous and crystalline Fe oxides; Al oxide, amorphous aluminosilicates and kaolinite; and residual fractions. The complete removal of organic matter and mineral phases in sequential extractions resulted in low participation of residual forms of Pb and Zn in the total concentrations of these metals in the soils: there was lower association of metals with primary and 2:1 minerals and refractory oxides. The powerful methods used here allow an identification of the complete metal-mineral associations, such as the occurrence of Pb and Zn in the structure of the minerals. The higher incidence of Zn than Pb in the structure of Fe oxides, due to isomorphic substitution, was attributed to a smaller difference between the ionic radius of Zn2+ and Fe3+.

Influence of digestion methods on the recovery of Iron, Zinc, Nickel, Chromium, Cadmium and Lead contents in 11 organic residues

There are currently many devices and techniques to quantify trace elements (TEs) in various matrices, but their efficacy is dependent on the digestion methods (DMs) employed in the opening of such matrices which, although "organic", present inorganic components which are difficult to solubilize. This study was carried out to evaluate the recovery of Fe, Zn, Cr, Ni, Cd and Pb contents in samples of composts and cattle, horse, chicken, quail, and swine manures, as well as in sewage sludges and peat. The DMs employed were acid digestion in microwaves with HNO3 (EPA 3051A); nitric-perchloric digestion with HNO3 + HClO4 in a digestion block (NP); dry ashing in a muffle furnace and solubilization of residual ash in nitric acid (MDA); digestion by using aqua regia solution (HCl:HNO3) in the digestion block (AR); and acid digestion with HCl and HNO3 + H2O2 (EPA 3050). The dry ashing method led to the greatest recovery of Cd in organic residues, but the EPA 3050 protocol can be an alternative method for the same purpose. The dry ashing should not be employed to determine the concentration of Cr, Fe, Ni, Pb and Zn in the residues. Higher Cr and Fe contents are recovered when NP and EPA 3050 are employed in the opening of organic matrices. For most of the residues analyzed, AR is the most effective method for recovering Ni. Microwave-assisted digestion methods (EPA3051 and 3050) led to the highest recovery of Pb. The choice of the DM that provides maximum recovery of Zn depends on the organic residue and trace element analyzed.

Solid phase extraction of iron and lead in environmental matrices on amberlite xad-1180/pv

A solid phase extraction procedure using Amberlite XAD-1180/Pyrocatechol violet (PV) chelating resin for the determination of iron and lead ions in various environmental samples was established. The procedure is based on the sorption of lead(II) and iron(III) ions onto the resin at pH 9, followed by elution with 1 mol/L HNO3 and determination by flame atomic absorption spectrometry. The influence of alkaline, earth alkaline and some transition metals, as interferents, are discussed. The recoveries for the spiked analytes were greater than 95%. The detection limits for lead and iron by FAAS were 0.37 µg/L and 0.20 µg/L, respectively. Validation of the method described here was performed by using three certified reference materials (SRM 1515 Apple Leaves, SRM 2711 Montana Soil and NRCC-SLRS-4 Riverine Water). The procedure was successfully applied to natural waters and human hair.