The contagion effect of public debt on monetary policy: the Brazilian experience

This paper attempts to explain why the Brazilian inter-bank interest rate is so high compared with rates practiced by other emerging economies. The interplay between the markets for bank reserves and government securities feeds into the inter-bank rate the risk premium of the Brazilian public debt.

Brazil and the nuclear issues in the years of the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva government (2003-2010)

The present article is an analysis of Brazilian nuclear diplomacy and of the international relevance of the national nuclear program adopted during the two Presidential terms of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Particular attention will be given to the Brazilian position in the agreement on nuclear non-proliferation, to the role of mediation between Iran and the nuclear powers, and finally to the national ambitions concerning the industrial and military uses of the nuclear technologies.

Contemporary issues in the government and administration of Latin American megacities

This paper is the first to systematically analyze and compare the structures of city governance and administration for seven major cities in Latin America, four of which are megacities (population of over 10 million), and three others are large national capitals. U.S. and U. K. models of city administration are reviewed as baseline models against which differences in Latin American may be explored. Structures of Government in Latin America show several important features and trends: 1) the lack of metropolitan (cross jurisdictional) authority; 2) the existence of strong mayors and weak councils"; 3) high levels of partisanship; 4) overlapping rather than interlocking bureaucracies; 5) pressures towards the privatization of city services, but continuing tension over the desirability of public versus private control; 6) greater fiscal responsibility and autonomy; and 7), a continuing marginalization of public participation in megacity governance.In spite of these features, many cities throughout the region (regardless of whether they are megacity size or national capitals), are actively intensifying their efforts to develop more effective, accountable and democratic governance structures.

Electronic government policies in Brazil: context, ICT management and outcomes

The State Reform processes combined with the emergence and use of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) originated electronic government policies and initiatives in Brazil. This paper dwells on Brazilian e-government by investigating the institutional design it assumed in the state's public sphere, and how it contributed to outcomes related to e-gov possibilities. The analyses were carried out under an interpretativist perspective by making use of Institutional Theory. From the analyses of interviews with relevant actors in the public sphere, such as state secretaries and presidents of public ICT companies, conclusions point towards low institutionalization of e-gov policies. The institutional design of Brazilian e-gov limits the use of ICT to provide integrated public services, to amplify participation and transparency, and to improve public policies management.

How logrolling can explain the failure of the government coalition in Brazil

This article presents an analysis of the behavior of federal representatives in the Brazilian House of Representatives between 1995 and 1998, when a series of constitutional amendments were presented by the president to be voted on by Congress. The objective is to show that the lack of a stable government coalition resulted in costs to society that were not anticipated by the government. The study argues that a logroll - a trade of votes - was the strategy used by the government in order to guarantee the number of votes necessary to approve the amendments. This strategy created a vicious system in which representatives would only vote with the government if they had benefits in return.

Inovação aberta na gestão pública: análise do plano de ação brasileiro para a Open Government Partnership

Este estudo objetivou analisar o Plano de Ação brasileiro para o Governo Aberto, baseado na teoria da inovação aberta na gestão pública. Utilizou-se de uma pesquisa documental, com vistas a aprofundar o conhecimento do fenômeno em questão. O documento foi escolhido intencionalmente, por ser exemplo basilar das políticas públicas relacionadas à inovação aberta brasileira. Os resultados mostram que os compromissos firmados pelo governo brasileiro estão consoantes com o processo de inovação aberta pública. As ações previstas no Plano estão especificamente relacionadas a transparência, abertura de dados e preparação do corpo estatal para o processo aberto de inovação.

Accountability and co-production of information and control: social observatories and their relationship with government agencies

Abstract:Through the development of a proposal to categorize accountability into four stages - classical, cross-sectional, systemic, and diffused -, this article aims to identify characteristics of co-production of information and socio-political control of public administration in the work of Brazilian social observatories in relationship with government control agencies. The study analyses data from 20 social observatories and, particularly, three experiences of co-production of information and control, based on a systemic perspective on accountability and a model with four categories: Political and cultural; valuing; systemic-organizational, and production. The conclusions summarize characteristics of these practices, specific phases in the accountability processes, as well as the potentialities and challenges of co-production of information and control, which not only influences, but it is also influenced by the accountability system.

The debt crisis: a re-appraisal

The 1980s' debt crisis is a landmark in developing economies' growth and stabilization. According to the most quoted empirical articles, external shocks and vicissitudes gave rise to crisis just because of delays in stabilization policies, engendered by internal conflicts and institutional immaturity. I review some of these papers, and find out some problems - in the measurement of shocks and foreign indebtedness, namely - whose corrections lead to opposite results: external shocks and foreign indebtedness explain that crisis regardless of domestic policies. At the same time, the strong correlation of income distribution to terms of trade changes and foreign indebtedness suggest that inequality may have contributed differently to that crisis: either through an economic channel, or through a political channel based on delays in reforms.

Still the century of government savings banks? The Caixa Econômica Federal

This article explores general concerns about government banking, social inclusion, and democracy through case study of the Brazilian federal government savings bank (Caixa Econômica Federal). Review of government savings banks in Brazilian history suggests that these institutions have been at the center of domestic political economy, expanding and contracting under a variety of political regimes and economic conditions. Since capitalization to meet central bank and Basel Accord guidelines in 2001, the Caixa has attempted to modernize, continue to serve as agent for government policies, and expand both popular credit and savings and investment banking activities.

External debt in developing economies: assessment and policy issues

More than one decade after the external debt restructuring (the Brady Plan), a great amount of literature has been published concerning the balance sheet factors in developing countries. The staff of international multilateral institutions joined with reputable academics in this great controversy. The external debt problem of the developing countries is back and once more reflections on its cause and on policy recommendations are analytically distinct. Our main task is to reflect on the recent external debt dynamics and assess how this debt has evolved. Our findings indicate that the susceptibility of some developing countries to default is associated with global imbalance, that is, the way they borrow.

National exchange rate policies and international debt crises: how Brazil did not follow Argentina into a default in 2001-2002

This paper examines how exchange rate policies and IMF Stand-By Arrangements affect debt crises using econometrics and a comparison between Argentina and Brazil. It refines an existing diagram outlining crisis development to propose crisis prevention strategies. Flexible exchange rate policies reduce a country's probability of default by over 4%, but Stand-By Arrangements increase it by an inconsequential percentage. Unlike Argentina, Brazil avoided a default via a freely-floating exchange rate system, fiscal deficit reduction, and a cooperative and coordinated relationship with the IMF. The results provide policymakers from developing countries with lessons to manage their countries' default risks more effectively.

Federalismo e endividamento subnacional: uma discussão sobre a sustentabilidade da dívida estadual

The subnational debt in Brazil was marked by successive bailouts by the federal government. The path of subnational debt induced some locals and state authorities to claim for further renegotiations. More specifically, some governors and mayors demanded a revision of the refinancing contracts. This article intends to present arguments sustained by simulations of the evolution of the path of the subnational debt, denying the necessity of changes in legal framework, which rules the state debt. The first section consists of a brief overview. The following section treats the institutional framework designed to safeguard the fiscal intertemporal balance. In the third section, the implications of new institutional framework on the subnational debt are approached; in the fourth, the possible causes that distorted the expected path of the debt are discussed. The fifth section analyses the future perspectives for the debt in general terms and focuses some specific cases, while the sixth section discusses the problem under a federal optics. Finally, the conclusion is presented.

Matemática agradável

This paper suggests a reconsideration of the principle that public deficits should be financed by public debt. Two main reasons are offered. First, it is admitted that public debt is an economic variable whose time behaviour is better described by a first difference equation instead of an accounting identity. The convergence condition thus obtained requires either a nominal negative interest rate or that government bonds are used to raise tax income, hypotheses not theoretically granted. As a consequence, if primary surplus is not sufficient to match interests' payment, it will be observed an explosive trend in the public debt, the due interests and the money issuing. Therefore, it lacks support to the idea that public debt prevents inflation. Second, it is shown that financing public deficit through money issuing leads to a stable equilibrium money stock. The general conclusion is that, in order to simultaneously promote economic growth and inflation control, money issuing is preferable to public debt.

Dívida pública, poupança em conta corrente do governo e superávit primário: uma análise de sustentabilidade

On this paper, we propose a change in the primary surplus' target by the government current account saving. That concept excludes public investment from primary surplus. However, of that change has raised a question about if government current account saving represents a sustainable fiscal policy. Thus, this paper analyses if the change in the primary surplus' target by the government current account saving implies a meaning modification on the debt-to-GDP ratio path. The empirical analysis, which is based on Brazilian monthly data for the period 1999-2005, suggests that the change in fiscal target does not mean a lack of sustain-ability.