Entrepreneurial decision-making using the knightian uncertainty approach

The article discusses the behavioral aspects that affect the entrepreneurs' decision making under the Knightian uncertainty approach. Since the profit arising from entrepreneurial activity represents the reward of an immeasurable and subjective risk, it has been hypothesized that innovative entrepreneurs have excessive optimism and confidence, which leads them to invest in high-risk activities. A behavioral model of decision making under uncertainty is used to test the hypothesis of overconfidence. This model is based on Bayesian inference, which allows us to model the assumption that these entrepreneurs are overconfident. We conclude that, under the hypothesis of overconfidence, these entrepreneurs decide to invest, despite the fact that the expected utility model indicates the contrary. This theoretical finding could explain why there are a large number of business failures in the first years of activity.

UN Security Council decision-making: testing the bribery hypothesis

Liberal-Institutionalism and Structural Realism expectations about international organizations are confronted by looking at if and how US-controlled international aid is granted, and particularly if it is related or not to political affinity and to United Nations Security Council (UNSC) non-permanent membership. A preliminary assessment suggests that these relations only hold for the period of the Cold War, and, even then, only when UNSC non-permanent membership is in years in which the Security Council was deemed very important.

Do stakeholders matter in strategic decision making of a sports organization?

This study aims to identify and prioritize the stakeholders involved in making decisions in a sports organization. A multiple linear regression analysis was used to assess the influence of the attributes of power, legitimacy and urgency on the salience of the various stakeholders. The results showed a convergence of external and internal decision makers' perceptions, concerning the three main stakeholder groups: top management, sponsors and member association. Pearson correlations identified four types of stakeholder: definitive, dangerous, demanding and non-stakeholders. A generalized differentiation was also found in stakeholder classification, regarding evaluation of attributes, between external and internal decision makers. In addition, the study suggests the success of organizations' management will depend on correct identification of stakeholders and consequent assessment of their relevance, in order to highlight who should get priority, and how, in strategic decision making.

Decision-making on childhood vaccination by highly educated parents

OBJECTIVE To analyze the sociocultural aspects involved in the decision-making process of vaccination in upper-class and highly educated families.METHODS A qualitative approach based on in-depth interviews with 15 couples from the city of Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, falling into three categories: vaccinators, late or selective vaccinators, and nonvaccinators. The interpretation of produced empirical material was performed through content analysis.RESULTS The study showed diverse and particular aspects surrounding the three groups’ decisions whether to vaccinate their children. The vaccinators’ decision to vaccinate their children was spontaneous and raised no questions. Most late or selective vaccinators experienced a wide range of situations that were instrumental in the decision to delay or not apply certain vaccines. The nonvaccinator’s decision-making process expressed a broader context of both criticism of hegemonic obstetric practices in Brazil and access to information transmitted via social networks and the internet. The data showed that the problematization of vaccines (culminating in the decision to not vaccinate their children) occurred in the context of humanized birth, was protagonized by women and was greatly influenced by health information from the internet.CONCLUSIONS Sociocultural aspects of the singular Brazilian context and the contemporary society were involved in the decision-making on children’s vaccination. Understanding this process can provide a real basis for a deeper reflection on health and immunization practices in Brazil in light of the new contexts and challenges of the world today.

Normal aging and decision-making: a systematic review of the literature of the last 10 years

Objective Conduct a systematic review to investigate whether healthy elderly have deficits in the decision-making process when compared to the young. Methods We performed a systematic search on SciELO, Lilacs, PsycINFO, Scopus and PubMed database with keywords decision making and aging (according to the description of Mesh terms) at least 10 years. Results We found nine studies from different countries, who investigated 441 young and 377 elderly. All studies used the IOWA Gambling Task as a way of benchmarking the process of decision making. The analysis showed that 78% of the articles did not have significant differences between groups. However, 100% of the studies that assessed learning did find relevant differences. Furthermore, studies that observed the behavior of individuals in the face of losses and gains, 60% of articles showed that the elderly has more disadvantageous choices throughout the task. Conclusion: The consulted literature showed no consensus on the existence of differences in performance of the decision-making process between old and young, but it is observed that the elderly has deficits in learning and a tendency to fewer advantageous choices.

Network Meta-analysis to Synthesize Evidence for Decision Making in Cardiovascular Research

Abstract Clinical decision-making requires synthesis of evidence from literature reviews focused on a specific theme. Evidence synthesis is performed with qualitative assessments and systematic reviews of randomized clinical trials, typically covering statistical pooling with pairwise meta-analyses. These methods include adjusted indirect comparison meta-analysis, network meta-analysis, and mixed-treatment comparison. These tools allow synthesis of evidence and comparison of effectiveness in cardiovascular research.

Effect of bird density on the decision to join a group in the Sicalis flaveola pelzeni (Passeriformes, Emberizidae)

A change in bird density within a captive flock of Sicalis flaveola pelzeni (Sclater, 1872) affected the decision to join a group. Ruling out inter-individual differences and maintaining constant the size of a food patch, birds were found to fly more often to the food source and spend a longer time in its environs when kept in greater groups.

Schistosomiasis risk mapping in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using a decision tree approach, remote sensing data and sociological indicators

Schistosomiasis mansoni is not just a physical disease, but is related to social and behavioural factors as well. Snails of the Biomphalaria genus are an intermediate host for Schistosoma mansoni and infect humans through water. The objective of this study is to classify the risk of schistosomiasis in the state of Minas Gerais (MG). We focus on socioeconomic and demographic features, basic sanitation features, the presence of accumulated water bodies, dense vegetation in the summer and winter seasons and related terrain characteristics. We draw on the decision tree approach to infection risk modelling and mapping. The model robustness was properly verified. The main variables that were selected by the procedure included the terrain's water accumulation capacity, temperature extremes and the Human Development Index. In addition, the model was used to generate two maps, one that included risk classification for the entire of MG and another that included classification errors. The resulting map was 62.9% accurate.

Quality uncertainty and allocation of decision rights in the European protected designation of origin

The paper considers some issue in the governance of the European Protected Designation of Origin (PDO). The PDO systems are the outcomes of both farmers and consumers expectations and connect the valorisation of the agricultural and rural resources of given territories to the quality of typical products. A critical point in the governance of the PDO systems is represented by the connection between the quality strategies and the uncertainty. The paper argues that the PDO systems can be thought of as strictly coordinated subsystems in which the ex post governance play a critical role in coping with quality uncertainty. The study suggests that the society's inducements given raise to complex organizational systems in which the allocation of decision rights to PDO collective organizations play a major role. The empirical analysis is carried out by examining ten Italian PDO systems in order to identify the decision rights allocated.