Análisis del credit scoring

El problema de la morosidad está cobrándose una gran importancia en los países desarrollados. En este trabajo realizamos un análisis de la capacidad predictiva de dos modelos paramétricos y uno no paramétrico abordando, en este último, el problema del sobreaprendizaje mediante la validación cruzada que, muy habitualmente, se obvia en este tipo de estudios. Además proponemos la distinción de tres tipos de solicitudes dependiendo de su probabilidad cumplimiento: conceder, no conceder (de forma automática), y dudoso y, por consiguiente, proceder a su estudio manual por parte del personal bancario.

ABOUT PSYCHOLOGICAL VARIABLES IN APPLICATION SCORING MODELS

The purpose of this study is to investigate the contribution of psychological variables and scales suggested by Economic Psychology in predicting individuals’ default. Therefore, a sample of 555 individuals completed a self-completion questionnaire, which was composed of psychological variables and scales. By adopting the methodology of the logistic regression, the following psychological and behavioral characteristics were found associated with the group of individuals in default: a) negative dimensions related to money (suffering, inequality and conflict); b) high scores on the self-efficacy scale, probably indicating a greater degree of optimism and over-confidence; c) buyers classified as compulsive; d) individuals who consider it necessary to give gifts to children and friends on special dates, even though many people consider this a luxury; e) problems of self-control identified by individuals who drink an average of more than four glasses of alcoholic beverage a day.

A versão simplificada do Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System e seu valor prognóstico

O estudo avalia a capacidade do Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System (TISS-28) de discriminar pacientes internados em UTI, prováveis de morrer daqueles possíveis de sobreviver e estabelecer a pontuação limiar para alta probabilidade de morte. Os resultados, obtidos da amostra de 200 pacientes internados em 14 UTIs do Município de São Paulo, mostraram que o TISS-28 apresentou associação com mortalidade (p=0,0001). O ponto de corte estabelecido foi 21. Encontrou-se que 80,88% dos que morreram tinham pontuação do TISS-28 maior ou igual, e 68,18% dos sobreviventes tinham pontuação menor que 21. Além disso, quanto ao valor prognóstico do TISS-28, constatou-se acurácia de 0,72.

Therapeutic intervention scoring system-28 (TISS-28): diretrizes para aplicação

O Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System-28 (TISS-28) é um instrumento que permite dimensionar carga de trabalho de enfermagem em Unidade de Terapia Intensiva e estimar gravidade da doença. Apresenta-se nesta publicação as definições operacionais para sua aplicação, proposta por um grupo de especialistas na área, com vistas a uniformizar o significado de cada um dos itens e evitar vieses de interpretação.

Adaptação para a língua portuguesa e validação do Lunney Scoring Method for Rating Accuracy of Nursing Diagnoses

O Lunney Scoring Method for Rating Accuracy of Nursing Diagnoses (LSM) é uma escala de diferencial semântico que foi desenvolvida por Lunney para estimar a acurácia dos diagnósticos de enfermagem. O objetivo deste estudo foi adaptar o LSM para a língua portuguesa e avaliar as sua propriedades psicométricas. A escala original foi traduzida para o português, revertida para o inglês e as duas versões em inglês foram comparadas para ajustar a versão em português que passou a ser denominada Escala de Acurácia de Diagnóstico de Enfermagem de Lunney - EADE. Quatro enfermeiras foram orientadas sobre a EADE e a aplicaram em 159 diagnósticos formulados para 26 pacientes de três estudos primários com base nos registros de entrevista e exame físico de cada paciente. Os índices Kappa de Cohen mostraram ausência de concordância entre as avaliadoras, o que indica que o instrumento adaptado não tem confiabilidade satisfatória. Em virtude desse resultado, não foi realizada estimativa de validade.

Severity assessment of acute pancreatitis: applying Marshall scoring system

Objective: To analyze the effectiveness of the Marshall scoring system to evaluate the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods : We performed a prospective, observational study in 39 patients with AP evaluated by the Marshall scoring system and the Ranson criteria (admission and 48 hours). We assessed the progression of the disease for seven days and compared the data of the two criteria. Results : Seven patients died during the observation period and one died afterwards. All deaths had shown failure of at least one system by the Marshall method. Conclusion : The Marshall scoring system may be used as an effective and simplified application method to assess the severity of acute pancreatitis.

Chance of psychiatric morbidity amongst recently diagnosed cancer outpatients attending a chemotherapy unit

The prevalent rate of psychiatry morbidity amongst patients with cancer reported in various studies ranges from 5 to 50%, a variation that can be attributed to differences in sample size, the disease itself and treatment factors. The objectives of the present study were to determine the frequency of psychiatric morbidity amongst recently diagnosed cancer outpatients and try to identify which factors might be related to further psychological distress. Two hundred and eleven (70.9%) female patients and 87 (29.1%) male patients from the chemotherapy unit of the Cancer Hospital A.C. Camargo (São Paulo) completed a questionnaire that featured data on demographic, medical and treatment details. The Self Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20) was administered to the patients to determine their personal psychiatric morbidity. Seventy-two patients (25.8%) scored > or = 8 in the SRQ-20, the cut-off point for a patient to be considered a psychiatric case. When the low and high scoring groups were compared no differences were detected regarding age, marital status, tumor site, sex, or previous treatment. Nonetheless, patients in the lowest social class and those who were bedridden less than 50% of the time had a significantly higher probability of being a psychiatric case. Regarding help-seeking behavior in situations in which they had doubts or were frightened, about 64% of the total sample did not seek any type of support and did not talk to anyone. This frequency of psychiatric morbidity agrees with data from the cancer literature. According to many investigators, the early detection of a comorbid psychiatric disorder is crucial to relieve a patient's suffering.

Efficacy of HUMN criteria for scoring the micronucleus assay in human lymphocytes exposed to a low concentration of p,p'-DDT

The cytokinesis-block micronucleus (CBMN) assay is one of the standard cytogenetic tools employed to assess chromosomal damage subsequent to exposure to genotoxic/cytotoxic agents, and is widely applicable to plant, animal and human cells. In the present study, the CBMN assay was used to assess the baseline damage in binuclear human peripheral blood lymphocytes exposed to 25 µg/L p,p'-DDT for 1, 2, 24, and 48 h by measuring the frequency of micronuclei, nucleoplasmic bridges and nuclear buds. These new scoring criteria facilitated the detection of different types of clastogenic and aneugenic effects induced by this type of pollutant. With these criteria, CBMN can also be used to measure nucleoplasmic bridges which are considered to be consequences of chromosome rearrangements and nuclear buds which are biomarkers of altered gene amplification and gene dosage. The total number of micronuclei observed in binuclear human peripheral blood lymphocytes of the exposed samples (ranging from 32 to 47) was significantly greater (P < 0.05) than that detected in the unexposed (0 time) control sample, where the total number of micronuclei was 7. The number of nucleoplasmic bridges and nuclear buds obtained after 24 and 48 h was also significantly (P < 0.05) greater in the samples treated with p,p'-DDT than in the unexposed control samples. Thus, our results confirmed the usefulness of the new criteria applicable for the CBMN assay employed in measuring the DNA damage and its role of a sensitive cytogenetic biomarker.

STRATEGIES FOR SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE IN RECESSIONS: PRO OR COUNTER-CYCLICAL?

Recessions are recurring events in which most firms suffer severe impacts while others are less affected or may even prosper. Strategic management has made little progress in understanding such performance differences. In a scenario of decreased demand, intensified competition, and higher uncertainty, most firms try to survive by pro-cyclically cutting costs and investments. But firms could take advantage of undervalued resources in the market to counter-cyclically invest in new business opportunities to overtake competitors. We survey Brazilian firms in various industries about the 2008-2009 recession and analyze data using PLS-SEM. We find that while most firms pro-cyclically reduce costs and investments in recessions, a counter-cyclical strategy of investing in opportunities created by changes in the market enables superior performance. Most successful are firms with a propensity to recognize opportunities, an entrepreneurial orientation to invest, and the flexibility to efficiently implement investments.

Multidimensional aspects related to shiftworkers' health and well-being

The impact of shift and night work on health shows a high inter- and intra-individual variability, both in terms of kind of troubles and temporal occurrence, related to various intervening factors dealing with individual characteristics, lifestyles, work demands, company organisation, family relations and social conditions. The way we define "health" and "well-being" can significantly influence appraisals, outcomes and interventions. As the goal is the optimisation of shiftworkers' health, it is necessary to go beyond the health protection and to act for health promotion. In this perspective, not only people related to medical sciences, but many other actors (ergonomists, psychologists, sociologists, educators, legislators), as well as shiftworkers themselves. Many models have been proposed aimed at describing the intervening variables mediating and/or moderating the effects; they try to define the interactions and the pathways connecting risk factors and outcomes through several human dimensions, which refer to physiology, psychology, pathology, sociology, ergonomics, economics, politics, and ethics. So, different criteria can be used to evaluate shiftworkers' health and well-being, starting from biological rhythms and ending in severe health disorders, passing through psychological strain, job dissatisfaction, family perturbation and social dis-adaptation, both in the short- and long-term. Consequently, it appears rather arbitrary to focus the problem of shiftworkers' health and tolerance only on specific aspects (e.g. individual characteristics), but a systemic approach appears more appropriate, able to match as many variables as possible, and aimed at defining which factors are the most relevant for those specific work and social conditions. This can support a more effective and profitable (for individuals, companies, and society) adoption of preventive and compensative measures, that must refer more to "countervalues" rather than to "counterweights".

Performance of a Brazilian population on the test of functional health literacy in adults

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the scoring obtained by an instrument, which evaluates the ability to read and understand items in the health care setting, according to education and age. METHODS: The short version of the Test of Functional Health Literacy in Adults was administered to 312 healthy participants of different ages and years of schooling. The study was conducted between 2006 and 2007, in the city of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil. The test includes actual materials such as pill bottles and appointment slips and measures reading comprehension, assessing the ability to read and correctly pronounce a list of words and understand both prose passages and numerical information. Pearson partial correlations and a multiple regression model were used to verify the association between its scores and education and age. RESULTS: The mean age of the sample was 47.3 years(sd=16.8) and the mean education was 9.7 years(sd=5; range: 1 - 17). A total of 32.4% of the sample showed literacy/numeracy deficits, scoring in the inadequate and marginal functional health literacy ranges. Among the elderly (65 years or older) this rate increased to 51.6%. There was a positive correlation between schooling and scores (r=0.74; p<0.01) and a negative correlation between age and the scores (r=-0.259; p<0.01). The correlation between the scores and age was not significant when the effects of education were held constant (rp=-0.031, p=0.584). A significant association (B=3.877, Beta =0.733; p<0.001) was found between schooling and scores. Age was not a significant predictor in this model (B=-0.035, Beta=-0.22; p=0.584). CONCLUSIONS: The short version of the Test of Functional Health Literacy in Adults was a suitable tool to assess health literacy in the study population. The high number of individuals classified as functional illiterates in this test highlights the importance of special assistance to help them properly understand directions for healthcare.

Life expectancy without depression increases among Brazilian older adults

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate life expectancy with and without depressive symptoms in older adults for the years 2000 and 2010. METHODS We evaluated individuals aged 60 years or older (n = 1,862 in 2000 and n = 1,280 in 2010), participants of the Saúde, Bem-Estar e Envelhecimento (SABE – Health, Wellbeing and Aging) study in in Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil. Depression was measured using the shorter version of the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15); respondents scoring ≥ 6 were classified as having depression. Estimates of life expectancy with and without depression were obtained using the Sullivan method. RESULTS Data from 2000 indicate that 60-year-old men could expect to live, on average, 14.7 years without depression and 60-year-old women could expect to live 16.5 years without depression. By 2010, life expectancy without depression had increased to 16.7 years for men and 17.8 years for women. Expected length of life with depression differed by sex, with women expected to live more years with depression than men. CONCLUSIONS Between 2000 and 2010, life expectancy without depression in Sao Paulo increased. However, older adults in Brazil, especially older women, still face a serious burden of mental illness.

An ELISA method using serum derived HDAg for the sorological detection of HDV antigens and antibodies

One of the main difficulties related to the detection of the Hepatitis Delta Virus (HDV) antigen and antibody has been the source of the needed HD antigen since HDV containing human and animal livers are very difficult to obtain and since yield is low. This fact prompted us to try to use the serum of patients in the acute phase of HDV infection as a source of HDAg and turn to enzyme immunoassays (EIA) instead of RIA for the sake of easiness and economy in the amount of HDAg needed. The antigen for EIA was obtained from patients during the acute phase of HDV infection and the antibody from patients who have been carriers for many years. For the detection of the antigen, a sandwich type method was employed, whereas for the antibody a competition assay was developed. In order to assess the relative specificity and sensibility of the test, the antibody assay was compared to a commercial RIA (C. RIA, Abbott) and to a non-commercial RIA (NC RIA). Forty-two sera were tested by the two methods and only in two cases discrepant results were obtained. Its is concluded that: 1) sera from patients in the acute and chronic phases of HDV infection can be used as source of both antigen and antibody, for immunoassays; 2) EIA and RIA have comparable relative specificity and sensibility and 3) EIA is easier to perform, cheaper, non-hazardous, has a longer shelf-life and saves scarce HDAg.

Streptococcal acute pharyngitis

Acute pharyngitis/tonsillitis, which is characterized by inflammation of the posterior pharynx and tonsils, is a common disease. Several viruses and bacteria can cause acute pharyngitis; however, Streptococcus pyogenes (also known as Lancefield group A β-hemolytic streptococci) is the only agent that requires an etiologic diagnosis and specific treatment. S. pyogenes is of major clinical importance because it can trigger post-infection systemic complications, acute rheumatic fever, and post-streptococcal glomerulonephritis. Symptom onset in streptococcal infection is usually abrupt and includes intense sore throat, fever, chills, malaise, headache, tender enlarged anterior cervical lymph nodes, and pharyngeal or tonsillar exudate. Cough, coryza, conjunctivitis, and diarrhea are uncommon, and their presence suggests a viral cause. A diagnosis of pharyngitis is supported by the patient's history and by the physical examination. Throat culture is the gold standard for diagnosing streptococcus pharyngitis. However, it has been underused in public health services because of its low availability and because of the 1- to 2-day delay in obtaining results. Rapid antigen detection tests have been used to detect S. pyogenes directly from throat swabs within minutes. Clinical scoring systems have been developed to predict the risk of S. pyogenes infection. The most commonly used scoring system is the modified Centor score. Acute S. pyogenes pharyngitis is often a self-limiting disease. Penicillins are the first-choice treatment. For patients with penicillin allergy, cephalosporins can be an acceptable alternative, although primary hypersensitivity to cephalosporins can occur. Another drug option is the macrolides. Future perspectives to prevent streptococcal pharyngitis and post-infection systemic complications include the development of an anti-Streptococcus pyogenes vaccine.

The absence of the human platelet antigen polymorphism effect on fibrosis progression in human immunodeficiency virus-1/hepatitis C virus coinfected patients

AbstractINTRODUCTION:Hepatic fibrosis progression in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infections has been associated with viral and host factors, including genetic polymorphisms. Human platelet antigen polymorphisms are associated with the rapid development of fibrosis in HCV-monoinfected patients. This study aimed to determine whether such an association exists in human immunodeficiency virus-1/hepatitis C virus-coinfected patients.METHODS:Genomic deoxyribonucleic acid from 36 human immunodeficiency virus-1/hepatitis C virus-coinfected patients was genotyped to determine the presence of human platelet antigens-1, -3, or -5 polymorphisms. Fibrosis progression was evaluated using the Metavir scoring system, and the patients were assigned to two groups, namely, G1 that comprised patients with F1, portal fibrosis without septa, or F2, few septa (n = 23) and G2 that comprised patients with F3, numerous septa, or F4, cirrhosis (n = 13). Fisher's exact test was utilized to determine possible associations between the human platelet antigen polymorphisms and fibrosis progression.RESULTS:There were no deviations from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in the human platelet antigen systems evaluated. Statistically significant differences were not observed between G1 and G2 with respect to the distributions of the allelic and genotypic frequencies of the human platelet antigen systems.CONCLUSION:The greater stimulation of hepatic stellate cells by the human immunodeficiency virus and, consequently, the increased expression of transforming growth factor beta can offset the effect of human platelet antigen polymorphism on the progression of fibrosis in patients coinfected with the human immunodeficiency virus-1 and the hepatitis C virus.