15 resultados para Return predictability

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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OBJECTIVE: To assess individual and/or health service factors associated with patients returning for results of HIV or sexually transmitted infection (STI) tests in mental health centers. METHODS: Cross-sectional national multicenter study among 2,080 patients randomly selected from 26 Brazilian mental health centers in 2007. Multilevel logistic regression was used to assess the effect of individual (level 1) and mental health service characteristics (level 2) on receipt of test results. RESULTS: The rate of returning HIV/STI test results was 79.6%. Among health service characteristics examined, only condom distribution was associated with receiving HIV/STI test results, whereas several individual characteristics were independently associated including living in the same city where treatment centers are; being single; not having heard of AIDS; and not having been previously HIV tested. CONCLUSIONS: It is urgent to expand HIV/STI testing in health services which provide care for patients with potentially increased vulnerability to these conditions, and to promote better integration between mental health and health services.

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Knowledge on the factors influencing water erosion is fundamental for the choice of the best land use practices. Rainfall, expressed by rainfall erosivity, is one of the most important factors of water erosion. The objective of this study was to determine rainfall erosivity and the return period of rainfall in the Coastal Plains region, near Aracruz, a town in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, based on available data. Rainfall erosivity was calculated based on historic rainfall data, collected from January 1998 to July 2004 at 5 min intervals, by automatic weather stations of the Aracruz Cellulose S.A company. A linear regression with individual rainfall and erosivity data was fit to obtain an equation that allowed data extrapolation to calculate individual erosivity for a 30-year period. Based on this data the annual average rainfall erosivity in Aracruz was 8,536 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1. Of the total annual rainfall erosivity 85 % was observed in the most critical period October to March. Annual erosive rains accounted for 38 % of the events causing erosion, although the runoff volume represented 88 % of the total. The annual average rainfall erosivity return period was estimated to be 3.4 years.

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Apple (Malus domestica Borkh.) trees, cultivars Gala and Fuji, were sprayed at full bloom with thidiazuron (TDZ) at doses of 0, 5, 10, or 20 g ha-1 of a.i. in order to evaluate its effects on plant growth and development, return bloom, fruit set, nutrition, and fruit yield. Fruit set increased with TDZ dose in 'Gala' but not in 'Fuji'. TDZ did not affect fruit yield in any cultivar. In 'Gala', the return bloom was reduced in about 50% at TDZ doses of 10 or 20 g ha-1. TDZ increased shoot growth in both cultivars. In leaves, TDZ decreased the concentration of Ca and Mg in 'Gala' and of Mg in 'Fuji', but did not affect the chlorophyll content, leaf area, length, width, and dry mass per cm² regardless of cultivar. In fruits, the effect of TDZ varied according to the portion evaluated. Highest doses of TDZ decreased the concentration of Ca and K in 'Gala' and of K in 'Fuji' in the entire fruits (flesh + skin); in the skin, highest doses of TDZ reduced the levels of N, Ca, and Mg in both cultivars, in addition to the level of K in 'Fuji'.

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The objective of this work was to identify factors associated with the 56-day non-return rate (56-NRR) in dairy herds in the Galician region, Spain, and to estimate it for individual Holstein bulls. The experiment was carried out in herds originated from North-West Spain, from September 2008 to August 2009. Data of the 76,440 first inseminations performed during this period were gathered. Candidate factors were tested for their association with the 56-NRR by using a logistic model (binomial). Afterwards, 37 sires with a minimum of 150 first performed inseminations were individually evaluated. Logistic models were also estimated for each bull, and predicted individual 56-NRR rate values were calculated as a solution for the model parameters. Logistic regression found four major factors associated with 56-NRR in lactating cows: age at insemination, days from calving to insemination, milk production level at the time of insemination, and herd size. First-service conception rate, when a particular sire was used, was higher for heifers (0.71) than for lactating cows (0.52). Non-return rates were highly variable among bulls. Asignificant part of the herd-level variation of 56-NRR of Holstein cattle seems attributable to the service sire. High correlation level between observed and predicted 56-NRR was found.

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Simple manual reaction time (MRT) to a visual target (S2) is shortened when a non-informative cue (S1) is flashed at the S2 location shortly before the onset of S2 (early facilitation). Afterwards, MRT to S2 appearing at the S1 location is lengthened (inhibition of return - IOR). Similar results have been obtained for saccadic reaction time (SRT). Moreover, when there is a temporal gap between offset of the fixation point (FP) and onset of a target (gap paradigm), SRT is shorter than SRT in an overlap paradigm (FP remains on). In the present study, we determined SRT to S2 (10º) after presenting S1 at the same eccentricity (10º) or at a parafoveal position (2º) in the same or in the opposite hemifield. In addition, we employed both gap and overlap paradigms. Twelve subjects were asked not to respond to S1 (2º or 10º) to the right or to the left of FP, but to respond by making a saccadic movement in response to S2. We obtained the following results: 1) a 40-ms gap effect, 2) an interaction between gap effect and IOR, 3) a 39-ms delay (IOR) when S2 appeared at the cued (S1) position, and 4) a smaller (17 ms) but significant inhibition when S1 occurred at 2º in the ipsilateral hemifield. Thus, a parafoveal (2º) S1 elicits an inhibition of SRT towards ipsilateral peripheral targets. Since an inhibition of the ipsilateral hemifield by a 1º eccentric cue has been reported to occur when manual responses are employed, we suggest that the postulated functional link between covert and overt orienting of attention is also valid for parafoveal cues.

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ABSTRACT The efficiency of nitrogen fertilizer in corn is usually low, negatively affecting plant nutrition, the economic return, and the environment. In this context, a variable rate of nitrogen, prescribed by crop sensors, has been proposed as an alternative to the uniform rate of nitrogen traditionally used by farmers. This study tested the hypothesis that variable rate of nitrogen, prescribed by optical sensor, increases the nitrogen use efficiency and grain yield as compared to uniform rate of nitrogen. The following treatments were evaluated: 0; 70; 140; and 210 kg ha-1 under uniform rate of nitrogen, and 140 kg ha -1 under variable rate of nitrogen. The nitrogen source was urea applied on the soil surface using a distributor equipped with the crop sensor. In this study, the grain yield ranged from 10.2 to 15.5 Mg ha-1, with linear response to nitrogen rates. The variable rate of nitrogen increased by 11.8 and 32.6% the nitrogen uptake and nitrogen use efficiency, respectively, compared to the uniform rate of nitrogen. However, no significant increase in grain yield was observed, indicating that the major benefit of the variable rate of nitrogen was reducing the risk of environmental impact of fertilizer.

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Este estudo investiga a relação entre os investimentos uma relação de causalidade entre investimento social socioambientais e o desempenho financeiro das em-interno e desempenho financeiro, pois os investimenpresas brasileiras de 2001 a 2007. As regressões esti-tos sociais voltados para os empregados da empresa madas com base no modelo de efeitos fixos analisam têm um efeito positivo sobre a variável Return on a correlação entre as variáveis de desempenho socio-Assets (ROA). Essa conclusão está de acordo com os ambiental e financeiro, enquanto as estimações usando resultados obtidos por Laan e outros (2008), os quais modelos de variável instrumental analisam a relação indicam que investimentos realizados nas demandas de causalidade entre esses indicadores. Os resultados sociais de stakeholders primários (empregados, conrevelam uma correlação positiva entre investimento sumidores e investidores) contribuem para melhorar socioambiental e desempenho financeiro, sobretudo o desempenho financeiro, o que não acontece com o investimento social interno. Além disso, revelam investimentos voltados para stakeholders secundários.

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The disposition effect predicts that investors tend to sell winning stocks too soon and ride losing stocks too long. Despite the wide range of research evidence about this issue, the reasons that lead investors to act this way are still subject to much controversy between rational and behavioral explanations. In this article, the main goal was to test two competing behavioral motivations to justify the disposition effect: prospect theory and mean reversion bias. To achieve it, an analysis of monthly transactions for a sample of 51 Brazilian equity funds from 2002 to 2008 was conducted and regression models with qualitative dependent variables were estimated in order to set the probability of a manager to realize a capital gain or loss as a function of the stock return. The results brought evidence that prospect theory seems to guide the decision-making process of the managers, but the hypothesis that the disposition effect is due to mean reversion bias could not be confirmed.

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ABSTRACTBank failures affect owners, employees, and customers, possibly causing large-scale economic distress. Thus, banks must evaluate operational risks and develop early warning systems. This study investigates bank failures in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the North America Free Trade Area (NAFTA), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the European Union, newly industrialized countries, the G20, and the G8. We use financial ratios to analyze and explore the appropriateness of prediction models. Results show that capital ratios, interest income compared to interest expenses, non-interest income compared to non-interest expenses, return on equity, and provisions for loan losses have significantly negative correlations with bank failure. However, loan ratios, non-performing loans, and fixed assets all have significantly positive correlations with bank failure. In addition, the accuracy of the logistic model for banks from NAFTA countries provides the best prediction accuracy regarding bank failure.

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This article presents an analysis of the behavior of federal representatives in the Brazilian House of Representatives between 1995 and 1998, when a series of constitutional amendments were presented by the president to be voted on by Congress. The objective is to show that the lack of a stable government coalition resulted in costs to society that were not anticipated by the government. The study argues that a logroll - a trade of votes - was the strategy used by the government in order to guarantee the number of votes necessary to approve the amendments. This strategy created a vicious system in which representatives would only vote with the government if they had benefits in return.

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OBJECTIVE: The expansion of precarious employment in OECD countries has been widely associated with negative health and safety effects. Although many shiftworkers are precariously employed, shiftwork research has concentrated on full-time workers in continuing employment. This paper examines the impact of precarious employment on working hours, work-life conflict and health by comparing casual employees to full-time, "permanent" employees working in the same occupations and workplaces. METHODS: Thirty-nine convergent interviews were conducted in two five-star hotels. The participants included 26 full-time and 13 casual (temporary) employees. They ranged in age from 19 to 61 years and included 17 females and 22 males. Working hours ranged from zero to 73 hours per week. RESULTS: Marked differences emerged between the reports of casual and full-time employees about working hours, work-life conflict and health. Casuals were more likely to work highly irregular hours over which they had little control. Their daily and weekly working hours ranged from very long to very short according to organisational requirements. Long working hours, combined with low predictability and control, produced greater disruption to family and social lives and poorer work-life balance for casuals. Uncoordinated hours across multiple jobs exacerbated these problems in some cases. Health-related issues reported to arise from work-life conflict included sleep disturbance, fatigue and disrupted exercise and dietary regimes. CONCLUSIONS:This study identified significant disadvantages of casual employment. In the same hotels, and doing largely the same jobs, casual employees had less desirable and predictable work schedules, greater work-life conflict and more associated health complaints than "permanent" workers.

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OBJECTIVE To describe the health status and access to care of forced-return Mexican migrants deported through the Mexico-United States border and to compare it with the situation of voluntary-return migrants. METHODS Secondary data analysis from the Survey on Migration in Mexico’s Northern Border from 2012. This is a continuous survey, designed to describe migration flows between Mexico and the United States, with a mobile-population sampling design. We analyzed indicators of health and access to care among deported migrants, and compare them with voluntary-return migrants. Our analysis sample included 2,680 voluntary-return migrants, and 6,862 deportees. We employ an ordinal multiple logistic regression model, to compare the adjusted odds of having worst self-reported health between the studied groups. RESULTS As compared to voluntary-return migrants, deportees were less likely to have medical insurance in the United States (OR = 0.05; 95%CI 0.04;0.06). In the regression model a poorer self-perceived health was found to be associated with having been deported (OR = 1.71, 95%CI 1.52;1.92), as well as age (OR = 1.03, 95%CI 1.02;1.03) and years of education (OR = 0.94 95%CI 0.93;0.95). CONCLUSIONS According to our results, deportees had less access to care while in the United States, as compared with voluntary-return migrants. Our results also showed an independent and statistically significant association between deportation and having poorer self-perceived health. To promote the health and access to care of deported Mexican migrants coming back from the United States, new health and social policies are required.

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OBJECTIVE To analyze the cases of tuberculosis and the impact of direct follow-up on the assessment of treatment outcomes.METHODS This open prospective cohort study evaluated 504 cases of tuberculosis reported in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN – Notifiable Diseases Information System) in Juiz de Fora, MG, Southeastern Brazil, between 2008 and 2009. The incidence of treatment outcomes was compared between a group of patients diagnosed with tuberculosis and directly followed up by monthly consultations during return visits (287) and a patient group for which the information was indirectly collected (217) through the city’s surveillance system. The Chi-square test was used to compare the percentages, with a significance level of 0.05. The relative risk (RR) was used to evaluate the differences in the incidence rate of each type of treatment outcome between the two groups.RESULTS Of the outcomes directly and indirectly evaluated, 18.5% and 3.2% corresponded to treatment default and 3.8% and 0.5% corresponded to treatment failure, respectively. The incidence of treatment default and failure was higher in the group with direct follow-up (p < 0.05) (RR = 5.72, 95%CI 2.65;12.34, and RR = 8.31, 95%CI 1.08;63.92, respectively).CONCLUSIONS A higher incidence of treatment default and failure was observed in the directly followed up group, and most of these cases were neglected by the disease reporting system. Therefore, effective measures are needed to improve the control of tuberculosis and data quality.

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OBJECTIVE To evaluate the viability of a professional specialist in intra-hospital committees of organ and tissue donation for transplantation. METHODS Epidemiological, retrospective and cross-sectional study (2003-2011 and 2008-2012), which was performed using organ donation for transplants data in the state of Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil. Nine hospitals were evaluated (hospitals 1 to 9). Logistic regression was used to evaluate the differences in the number of brain death referrals and actual donors (dependent variables) after the professional specialist started work (independent variable) at the intra-hospital committee of organ and tissue donation for transplantation. To evaluate the hospital invoicing, the hourly wage of the doctor and registered nurse, according to the legislation of the Consolidation of Labor Laws, were calculated, as were the investment return and the time elapsed to do so. RESULTS Following the nursing specialist commencement on the committee, brain death referrals and the number of actual donors increased at hospital 2 (4.17 and 1.52, respectively). At hospital 7, the number of actual donors also increased from 0.005 to 1.54. In addition, after the nurse started working, hospital revenues increased by 190.0% (ranging 40.0% to 1.955%). The monthly cost for the nurse working 20 hours was US$397.97 while the doctor would cost US$3,526.67. The return on investment was 275% over the short term (0.36 years). CONCLUSIONS This paper showed that including a professional specialist in intra-hospital committees for organ and tissue donation for transplantation proved to be cost-effective. Further economic research in the area could contribute to the efficient public policy implementation of this organ and tissue harvesting model.

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ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To assess the impact of implementing long-stay beds for patients of low complexity and high dependency in small hospitals on the performance of an emergency referral tertiary hospital. METHODS For this longitudinal study, we identified hospitals in three municipalities of a regional department of health covered by tertiary care that supplied 10 long-stay beds each. Patients were transferred to hospitals in those municipalities based on a specific protocol. The outcome of transferred patients was obtained by daily monitoring. Confounding factors were adjusted by Cox logistic and semiparametric regression. RESULTS Between September 1, 2013 and September 30, 2014, 97 patients were transferred, 72.1% male, with a mean age of 60.5 years (SD = 1.9), for which 108 transfers were performed. Of these patients, 41.7% died, 33.3% were discharged, 15.7% returned to tertiary care, and only 9.3% tertiary remained hospitalized until the end of the analysis period. We estimated the Charlson comorbidity index – 0 (n = 28 [25.9%]), 1 (n = 31 [56.5%]) and ≥ 2 (n = 19 [17.5%]) – the only variable that increased the chance of death or return to the tertiary hospital (Odds Ratio = 2.4; 95%CI 1.3;4.4). The length of stay in long-stay beds was 4,253 patient days, which would represent 607 patients at the tertiary hospital, considering the average hospital stay of seven days. The tertiary hospital increased the number of patients treated in 50.0% for Intensive Care, 66.0% for Neurology and 9.3% in total. Patients stayed in long-stay beds mainly in the first 30 (50.0%) and 60 (75.0%) days. CONCLUSIONS Implementing long-stay beds increased the number of patients treated in tertiary care, both in general and in system bottleneck areas such as Neurology and Intensive Care. The Charlson index of comorbidity is associated with the chance of patient death or return to tertiary care, even when adjusted for possible confounding factors.