Guidelines on how to assess the validity of results presented in subgroup analysis of clinical trials

In observational studies, identification of associations within particular subgroups is the usual method of investigation. As an exploratory method, it is the bread and butter of epidemiological research. Nearly everything that has been learned in epidemiology has been derived from the analysis of subgroups. In a randomized clinical trial, the entire purpose is the comparison of the test subjects and the controls, and when there is particular interest in the results of treatment in a certain section of trial participants, a subgroup analysis is performed. These subgroups are examined to see if they are liable to a greater benefit or risk from treatment. Thus, analyzing patient subsets is a natural part of the process of improving therapeutic knowledge through clinical trials. Nevertheless, the reliability of subgroup analysis can often be poor because of problems of multiplicity and limitations in the numbers of patients studied. The naive interpretation of the results of such examinations is a cause of great confusion in the therapeutic literature. We emphasize the need for readers to be aware that inferences based on comparisons between subgroups in randomized clinical trials should be approached more cautiously than those based on the main comparison. That is, subgroup analysis results derived from a sound clinical trial are not necessarily valid; one must not jump to conclusions and accept the validity of subgroup analysis results without an appropriate judgment.

The rational search for natural neolignans

A rational method of search for natural neolignans of desired structures is outlined. This involves consultation of a collection of chemical profiles of plant families. The profiles are assembled considering the biosynthetic class (in the present case lignoids), subclass (neolignans), structural types (neolignan skeleta) and relative frequency of substitutional derivatives belonging to each type (known compounds). The method is of course applicable to ani class of natural products. Its use in the case of neolignans is here selected as an exemple in view of the recently discovered antagonism towards PAF of kadsurenone, a representative of this subclass of phytochemicals. Application of the chemical profiles to phylogenetic studies is illustrated.

Antigenic and Genetic Characterization of Twenty-six Strains of Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus (Subgroup A) Isolated During Three Consecutive Outbreaks in Havana City, Cuba

Twenty-six human respiratory syncytial virus strains (subgroup A) isolated from three outbreaks in Havana City during the period 1994/95, 1995/96 and 1996/97 were analyzed to determine their antigenic and genetic relationships. Analyses were performed by monoclonal antibodies and restriction mapping (N gene) following amplification of the select region of the virus genome by polymerase chain reaction. All isolated strains were classified as subgroup A by monoclonal antibodies and they showed a restriction pattern NP4 that belonged to subgroup A. Thus the results obtained in this work, showed a close relation (100%) between antigenic and genetic characterization of the isolated strains in our laboratory. These methods permit the examination of large numbers of isolates by molecular techniques, simplifying the researchs into the molecular epidemiology of the virus.

Chronic Trypanosoma cruzi-elicited cardiomyopathy: from the discovery to the proposal of rational therapeutic interventions targeting cell adhesion molecules and chemokine receptors - how to make a dream come true

One hundred years ago, Carlos Chagas discovered a new disease, the American trypanosomiasis. Chagas and co-workers later characterised the disease's common manifestation, chronic cardiomyopathy, and suggested that parasitic persistence coupled with inflammation was the key underlying pathogenic mechanism. Better comprehension of the molecular mechanisms leading to clinical heart afflictions is a prerequisite to developing new therapies that ameliorate inflammation and improve heart function without hampering parasite control. Here, we review recent data showing that distinct cell adhesion molecules, chemokines and chemokine receptors participate in anti-parasite immunity and/or detrimental leukocyte trafficking to the heart. Moreover, we offer evidence that CC-chemokine receptors may be attractive therapeutic targets aiming to regain homeostatic balance in parasite/host interaction thereby improving prognosis, supporting that it is becoming a non-phantasious proposal.

Can sibling species of the Drosophila willistoni subgroup be recognized through combined microscopy techniques?

ABSTRACT In several arthropod groups, male genitalia is the most important feature for species identification, especially in cryptic species. Cryptic species are very common in the Drosophila genus, and the Neotropical Drosophila willistoni species group is a good example. This group currently includes 24 species divided into three subgroups: alagitans, bocainensis and willistoni. There are six sibling species in the willistoni subgroup – D. willistoni, D. insularis, D. tropicalis, D. equinoxialis, D. pavlovskiana and D. paulistorum, which is a species complex composed of six semispecies – Amazonian, Andean-Brazilian, Centroamerican, Interior, Orinocan and Transitional. The objective of this study was to characterize male genitalia of the willistoni subgroup, including the D. paulistorum species complex, using scanning electron microscopy and light microscopy. We also tried to contribute to the identification of these cryptic species and to add some comments about evolutionary history, based on male genitalia characters. Despite being cryptic species, some differences were found among the siblings, including the Drosophila paulistorum semispecies.

Love and rationality: on some possible rational effects of love

In this paper I defend the idea that rather than disrupting rationality, as the common-sense conception has done it, love may actually help us to develop rational ways of thinking and acting. I make the case for romantic or erotic love, since this is the kind of love that is more frequently associated with irrationality in acting and thinking. I argue that this kind of love may make us develop epistemic and practical forms of rationality. Based on an analysis of its characteristic action tendencies, I argue that love may help us to develop an instrumental form of rationality in determining the best means to achieve the object of love. It may also narrow down the number of practical considerations that may help us to achieve our goals. Finally, love may generate rational ways of belief-formation by framing the parameters taken into account in perception and attention, and by bringing into light only a small portion of the epistemic information available. Love may make us perceive reality more acutely.

THE LOGICAL SYSTEM OF FREGE'S GRUNDGESTZE: A RATIONAL RECONSTRUCTION

This paper aims at clarifying the nature of Frege's system of logic, as presented in the first volume of the Grundgesetze . We undertake a rational reconstruction of this system, by distinguishing its propositional and predicate fragments. This allows us to emphasise the differences and similarities between this system and a modern system of classical second-order logic.

Rational use of water in a poultry slaughterhouse in the state of Paraná, Brazil: a case study

Agroindustries are major consumers of water. However, to adapt to environmental trends and be competitive in the market, they have sought rational use of water through water management in their activities. Cleaner Production can result in economic, environmental and social benefits, and in actions that promote reduction in water consumption. This case study was conducted in a slaughterhouse and poultry cold storage processing plant and aimed to identify points of excessive water consumption, and to propose alternatives for managing water resources by reducing consumption. Consumption data are presented in relation to the processing stages with alternatives proposed for the rational use of water, such as closure of mains water during shift changes. Following the implementation of recommendations, a reduction in water consumption of approximately 11,137 m³ per month was obtained, which equates to a savings of US$ 99,672 per year. From this study, it was concluded that the company under review could develop various improvement actions and make an important contribution to the preservation of water resources in the region where it operates.

Reporting on methods of subgroup analysis in clinical trials: a survey of four scientific journals

Results of subgroup analysis (SA) reported in randomized clinical trials (RCT) cannot be adequately interpreted without information about the methods used in the study design and the data analysis. Our aim was to show how often inaccurate or incomplete reports occur. First, we selected eight methodological aspects of SA on the basis of their importance to a reader in determining the confidence that should be placed in the author's conclusions regarding such analysis. Then, we reviewed the current practice of reporting these methodological aspects of SA in clinical trials in four leading journals, i.e., the New England Journal of Medicine, the Journal of the American Medical Association, the Lancet, and the American Journal of Public Health. Eight consecutive reports from each journal published after July 1, 1998 were included. Of the 32 trials surveyed, 17 (53%) had at least one SA. Overall, the proportion of RCT reporting a particular methodological aspect ranged from 23 to 94%. Information on whether the SA preceded/followed the analysis was reported in only 7 (41%) of the studies. Of the total possible number of items to be reported, NEJM, JAMA, Lancet and AJPH clearly mentioned 59, 67, 58 and 72%, respectively. We conclude that current reporting of SA in RCT is incomplete and inaccurate. The results of such SA may have harmful effects on treatment recommendations if accepted without judicious scrutiny. We recommend that editors improve the reporting of SA in RCT by giving authors a list of the important items to be reported.

The use of protein structure/activity relationships in the rational design of stable particulate delivery systems

The recombinant heat shock protein (18 kDa-hsp) from Mycobacterium leprae was studied as a T-epitope model for vaccine development. We present a structural analysis of the stability of recombinant 18 kDa-hsp during different processing steps. Circular dichroism and ELISA were used to monitor protein structure after thermal stress, lyophilization and chemical modification. We observed that the 18 kDa-hsp is extremely resistant to a wide range of temperatures (60% of activity is retained at 80ºC for 20 min). N-Acylation increased its ordered structure by 4% and decreased its ß-T1 structure by 2%. ELISA demonstrated that the native conformation of the 18 kDa-hsp was preserved after hydrophobic modification by acylation. The recombinant 18 kDa-hsp resists to a wide range of temperatures and chemical modifications without loss of its main characteristic, which is to be a source of T epitopes. This resistance is probably directly related to its lack of organization at the level of tertiary and secondary structures.

DISPOSITION EFFECT AMONG BRAZILIAN EQUITY FUND MANAGERS

The disposition effect predicts that investors tend to sell winning stocks too soon and ride losing stocks too long. Despite the wide range of research evidence about this issue, the reasons that lead investors to act this way are still subject to much controversy between rational and behavioral explanations. In this article, the main goal was to test two competing behavioral motivations to justify the disposition effect: prospect theory and mean reversion bias. To achieve it, an analysis of monthly transactions for a sample of 51 Brazilian equity funds from 2002 to 2008 was conducted and regression models with qualitative dependent variables were estimated in order to set the probability of a manager to realize a capital gain or loss as a function of the stock return. The results brought evidence that prospect theory seems to guide the decision-making process of the managers, but the hypothesis that the disposition effect is due to mean reversion bias could not be confirmed.

How logrolling can explain the failure of the government coalition in Brazil

This article presents an analysis of the behavior of federal representatives in the Brazilian House of Representatives between 1995 and 1998, when a series of constitutional amendments were presented by the president to be voted on by Congress. The objective is to show that the lack of a stable government coalition resulted in costs to society that were not anticipated by the government. The study argues that a logroll - a trade of votes - was the strategy used by the government in order to guarantee the number of votes necessary to approve the amendments. This strategy created a vicious system in which representatives would only vote with the government if they had benefits in return.

O planejamento econômico no Brasil: considerações críticas

In the past thirty years, a series of plans have been developed by successive Brazilian governments in a continuing effort to maximize the nation's resources for economic and social growth. This planning history has been quantitatively rich but qualitatively poor. The disjunction has stimulated Professor Mello e Souza to address himself to the problem of national planning and to offer some criticisms of Brazilian planning experience. Though political instability has obviously been a factor promoting discontinuity, his criticisms are aimed at the attitudes and strategic concepts which have sought to link planning to national goals and administration. He criticizes the fascination with techniques and plans to the exclusion of proper diagnosis of the socio-political reality, developing instruments to coordinate and carry out objectives, and creating an administrative structure centralized enough to make national decisions and decentralized enough to perform on the basis of those decisions. Thus, fixed, quantified objectives abound while the problem of functioning mechanisms for the coordinated, rational use of resources has been left unattended. Although his interest and criticism are focused on the process and experience of national planning, he recognized variation in the level and results of Brazilian planning. National plans have failed due to faulty conception of the function of planning. Sectorial plans, save in the sector of the petroleum industry under government responsibility, ha e not succeeded in overcoming the problems of formulation and execution thereby repeating old technical errors. Planning for the private sector has a somewhat brighter history due to the use of Grupos Executivos which has enabled the planning process to transcend the formalism and tradition-bound attitudes of the regular bureaucracy. Regional planning offers two relatively successful experiences, Sudene and the strategy of the regionally oriented autarchy. Thus, planning history in Brazil is not entirely black but a certain shade of grey. The major part of the article, however, is devoted to a descriptive analysis of the national planning experience. The plans included in this analysis are: The Works and Equipment Plan (POE); The Health, Food, Transportation and Energy Plan (Salte); The Program of Goals; The Trienal Plan of Economic and Social Development; and the Plan of Governmental Economic Action (Paeg). Using these five plans for his historical experience the author sets out a series of errors of formulation and execution by which he analyzes that experience. With respect to formulation, he speaks of a lack of elaboration of programs and projects, of coordination among diverse goals, and of provision of qualified staff and techniques. He mentions the absence of the definition of resources necessary to the financing of the plan and the inadequate quantification of sectorial and national goals due to the lack of reliable statistical information. Finally, he notes the failure to coordinate the annual budget with the multi-year plans. He sees the problems of execution as beginning in the absence of coordination between the various sectors of the public administration, the failure to develop an operative system of decentralization, the absence of any system of financial and fiscal control over execution, the difficulties imposed by the system of public accounting, and the absence of an adequate program of allocation for the liberation of resources. He ends by pointing to the failure to develop and use an integrated system of political economic tools in a mode compatible with the objective of the plans. The body of the article analyzes national planning experience in Brazil using these lists of errors as rough model of criticism. Several conclusions emerge from this analysis with regard to planning in Brazil and in developing countries, in general. Plans have generally been of little avail in Brazil because of the lack of a continuous, bureaucratized (in the Weberian sense) planning organization set in an instrumentally suitable administrative structure and based on thorough diagnoses of socio-economic conditions and problems. Plans have become the justification for planning. Planning has come to be conceived as a rational method of orienting the process of decisions through the establishment of a precise and quantified relation between means and ends. But this conception has led to a planning history rimmed with frustration, and failure, because of its rigidity in the face of flexible and changing reality. Rather, he suggests a conception of planning which understands it "as a rational process of formulating decisions about the policy, economy, and society whose only demand is that of managing the instrumentarium in a harmonious and integrated form in order to reach explicit, but not quantified ends". He calls this "planning without plans": the establishment of broad-scale tendencies through diagnosis whose implementation is carried out through an adjustable, coherent instrumentarium of political-economic tools. Administration according to a plan of multiple, integrated goals is a sound procedure if the nation's administrative machinery contains the technical development needed to control the multiple variables linked to any situation of socio-economic change. Brazil does not possess this level of refinement and any strategy of planning relevant to its problems must recognize this. The reforms which have been attempted fail to make this recognition as is true of the conception of planning informing the Brazilian experience. Therefore, unworkable plans, ill-diagnosed with little or no supportive instrumentarium or flexibility have been Brazil's legacy. This legacy seems likely to continue until the conception of planning comes to live in the reality of Brazil.